21:41 UTC
Aug–Oct downtrend stalling, early higher-low sequence · RSI 56 · price 1.33925
HH/HL since the Oct 14 low; testing the 50% retrace of the Aug–Oct decline.
Cable fell from the 1.3675 August peak to the 1.3137 oct low over roughly eight weeks. A mid-October false break below the 1.3180 base reversed, and the move out of that late-Sept/Oct range was retested at a 1.3272 higher low on Oct 28 as the UK Budget eased fiscal risk premium. Friday tagged a 6wk high at 1.3434 near the 50% retrace of the Aug–Oct decline but closed back at 1.3393. Price is above a flattening ema50 near 1.3350, and EMA20 is rising toward it, with RSI around 56 and plenty of room before overbought.
Support: 1.3350, 1.3272, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3470, 1.3568
What it said to watch
- BoE decision Nov 5 (12:00 GMT, 25bp hike priced, 7-2 vote f/c) and Bailey at 12:30 could materially shift this read
- Daily close above the 1.3434 6wk high opens the 61.8% fib at 1.3470, then the 1.3568 sept high
- Daily close back below the ema50 near 1.3350 puts the recovery from the oct low in question
- Break of the 1.3272 higher low, and of the higher-low trendline, negates the HH/HL sequence and exposes the 1.3137 oct low
- US ISM (Mon), midterms (Tue) and Payrolls later in the week are the USD-side risks to the range