The swing low at 1.3272 held well above the 1.3137 low, and the Budget-driven rebound pushed through the 1.3419 prior high to a 1.3434 swing high before price eased back under it. Price holds above EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) near 33 pips has expanded on the late-week rally. The fib 38.2 at 1.3372 and the fib 61.8 at 1.3334 mark the pullback zone, with the rising trendline from the 1.3137 low below that.
Support: 1.3372, 1.3334, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3419, 1.3434, 1.3500
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 1.3434 swing high reopens the breakout and puts the 1.3500 round number in view
H4 close below the fib 61.8 at 1.3334 undercuts the rebound leg
Break of the 1.3272 swing low and the rising trendline invalidates the higher-low structure
BoE decision and Bailey on Nov 5 could materially shift this read, given the hike is fully priced
US ISM Manufacturing on Nov 2 and the midterms on Nov 3 are the USD-side risks
17:36 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below the swing high · RSI 65 · price 1.33925
Higher lows at 1.3137 and 1.3272, marginal higher high at 1.3434.
The swing structure is constructive: higher lows at 1.3137 and 1.3272 (swing low), with the Budget-driven rebound pushing Cable through the 1.3419 prior high to a 1.3434 swing high. No H4 close held above the prior high. Supply capped the move, and the last two bars eased back to 1.3393, with the fib 38.2 at 1.3372 the first retracement marker. ATR(14) near 33 pips has expanded off the mid-month range lows, so the leg still carries momentum heading into the BoE.
Support: 1.3372, 1.3334, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3419, 1.3434, 1.3450
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 1.3434 swing high would confirm the higher high and open the 1.3450 round number
A break below the fib 61.8 at 1.3334 would put the 1.3272 swing low and the higher-low trendline under pressure
BoE Super Thursday (Nov 5, 12:00 GMT): the MPC vote split vs the 7-2 consensus could materially shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing on Mon Nov 2 and the midterms on Tue are the USD-side catalysts for a test of the prior high