Higher-high sequence from Wednesday's low, now a lower high after Friday's rejection.
Cable rebounded from Wednesday's London-session week low at 1.3272 as the UK Budget eased fiscal worries. It broke Thursday's 1.3338 range top during NY hours after the US GDP data and stretched to a 1.3434 week high in Friday's London session. A sharp rejection into the first hour of NY Friday, around the ECI and Chicago PMI releases, held at the friday low of 1.3374, the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday–Friday rally. Price closed the week pinned at EMA(20) near 1.3393 and on the rising support line from Thursday, with RSI(14) back at a neutral 51 and the 1.3406 lower high capping the bounce.
Support: 1.3374, 1.3338, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3406, 1.3434
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.3374 friday low breaks rising support and opens the 50% retracement at 1.3353, then the 1.3338 range top
Reclaim of the 1.3406 lower high puts the 1.3434 week high back in focus
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7) is the first USD-side test of this read
BoE decision Nov 5 12:00 GMT: a 7-2 hike is fully priced, so the vote split and guidance carry two-way risk; week low at 1.3272 marks the base of the rally
Higher lows since Wednesday's low; Friday pullback held the 38.2% fib, now compressing at EMA(20).
Cable has built higher lows since Wednesday's London-open low at 1.3272. Thursday's NY session drove the main leg higher as BoE hike pricing outweighed strong US data. Friday's London push to a 1.3434 week high was rejected into NY, but the pullback held the 38.2% fib at 1.3374, and price has since compressed around the EMA(20) near 1.3393 with RSI(14) neutral near 52, capped by Friday's lower high at 1.3406.
Support: 1.3393, 1.33737, 1.33339
Resistance: 1.34057, 1.34336
What it said to watch
H1 close below rising support and the 38.2% fib at 1.3374 opens the 61.8% fib near 1.3334
Close above the 1.3406 lower high puts the 1.3434 week high back in play
BoE decision Thu Nov 5 12:00 GMT: an MPC vote split away from 7-2, or Bailey's guidance, could materially shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.7) is the first USD-side risk to the EMA(20) compression