Higher lows from 1.3272; retest of old 1.3410-20 highs.
GBPUSD has recovered from the 1.3272 range low back through the 1.3405-1.3420 prior high zone that capped the mid-October advance, and a spike to the 1.3448 six-week high faded on Monday. Price is now sitting on that prior high as a retest, above both EMAs, with ATR(14) near 30 pips, a moderate regime that is neither compressing nor expanding. The leg higher followed the UK Budget easing fiscal risk and BoE hike pricing firming, with a softer USD into the midterms adding to it.
Support: 1.3405, 1.3375, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.3405 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3375 swing low (near the 38.2% fib at 1.3381) breaks the higher-low sequence
Clearance of the 1.3434 swing high and 1.3448 6wk high extends the uptrend toward fresh multi-week highs
BoE decision Thu Nov 5 12:00 GMT: the vote split vs the 7-2 consensus could materially shift this read
US midterm results overnight Tue and Friday NFP are the USD-side risks to the structure
A decisive move back toward the 1.3272 range low would mean the whole recovery leg has been retraced
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3272 swing low.
The Budget-driven rally from the 1.3272 swing low has built higher highs and higher lows. Price has cleared the 1.3409-1.3419 range highs, and the higher low at 1.3374 held near the 38.2% retracement. EMA20 has crossed back above EMA50, and price sits above both. ATR(14) near 31 pips shows moderate expansion. Price is now pressing the 1.3434 prior high and 1.3448 six-week high cluster ahead of Thursday's BoE decision, where a 25bp hike is fully priced.
Support: 1.3374, 1.3330, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3448 six-week high extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3374 higher low breaks the swing structure and exposes the 1.3330 breakout base
Loss of the 1.3330 breakout base reopens the 1.3272 swing low
US midterms Tue and BoE Super Thursday (vote split vs 7-2) could materially shift this read
Repeated rejection at the 1.3434 prior high would mark a double test of the cap
Higher low at 1.3374 after V-recovery from 1.3272; marginal new swing high at 1.3448.
The recovery from the 1.3272 oct low has carried GBPUSD through the 1.3419 and 1.3434 prior high cluster to a fresh swing high at 1.3448. It is pulling back into that former cap now, with a higher low in place at the 1.3374 swing low. The rally followed a soothing UK Budget and firming BoE hike pricing, while the dollar faded after a less-hawkish-than-expected FOMC. EMA20 holds above EMA50, and ATR(14) near 29 pips shows a moderate, expanding range rather than compression.
Support: 1.3374, 1.3330, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H4 closes back below the 1.3434 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break inside the old range
Failure to hold the 1.3374 swing low (near the 38.2% fib) breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3330 prior pivot
Loss of 1.3330 prior pivot reopens the 1.3272 oct low
Acceptance above the 1.3448 swing high extends the higher-high structure
US ISM Manufacturing today 15:00 UTC and midterms Tue could shift USD tone
BoE decision and vote split Thu 12:00 UTC (25bp hike fully priced) could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, higher high above prior high · RSI 61 · price 1.34161
Higher highs and higher lows since the 1.3272 swing low; retesting the 1.3419–1.3434 cap.
The post-Budget rally from the 1.3272 swing low cleared the 1.3338 breakout level, which had capped twice last week, and printed a swing high at 1.3434 above the prior high at 1.3419. The pullback held the fib 38.2 near 1.3374. Price is now pressing back into 1.3419 as USD softens on Iran-diplomacy hopes, with EMA20 crossed back above EMA50 and ATR(14) near 27 pips, a moderate rather than expanding regime.
Support: 1.3374, 1.3338, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3419, 1.3434, 1.3450
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3434 swing high extends the higher-high sequence and opens the 1.3450 round number
Failure to hold the fib 38.2 at 1.3374 breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 1.3338 breakout level back in play
A break below 1.3272 swing low would reverse the swing structure
US ISM Manufacturing today 15:00 UTC could shift the USD leg
BoE decision Thu Nov 5 12:00 GMT: vote split vs 7-2 consensus could materially shift this read
3-week range 1.3272–1.3434; higher low held above 1.3374.
Cable has rotated inside a 1.3272–1.3434 range for three weeks. The rebound from the range low ran into supply at the range top on a third test of the 1.3409–1.3434 band, a leg the digest ties to the soothing UK Autumn Budget and firmer BoE hike pricing. Price is holding above the 1.3374 pullback low, close to the 38.2% fib of that leg, with EMA20 back above EMA50 and ATR(14) near 28 pips, mid-regime with no clear compression.
Support: 1.3374, 1.3353, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3419, 1.3434
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3434 range top, clearing the 1.3419 prior high, would break the three-week range; BoE Thu Nov 5 12:00 UTC is the main catalyst
Loss of the 1.3374 pullback low and the rally support line exposes the 50% fib and prior swing low near 1.3353
A break under the 1.3272 range low would turn the structure to lower lows
ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC and US midterms Tue are USD-side risk that could shift this read
Broad 1.3272-1.3434 range; push above prior high faded back inside.
The Budget-driven recovery from the 1.3272 window low carried cable through the 1.3419 prior high to a 1.3434 swing high. That break did not hold, and price has slipped back inside the multi-week range. The pullback found a swing low at 1.3374, near the 38.2% retracement of the rally, while price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50. ATR(14) has eased to about 32 pips from the expansion bar earlier in the leg, which points to consolidation ahead of Thursday's BoE decision, where the market has a 25bp hike fully priced.
Support: 1.3374, 1.3355, 1.3272
Resistance: 1.3419, 1.3434
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 1.3419 prior high and the 1.3434 swing high would negate the false-break read
Failure to hold the 1.3374 swing low exposes the prior lows around 1.3355, which also sit at the 50% retracement
A move back toward the 1.3272 window low would break the rally's higher-low trendline
BoE Thursday (Nov 5, 12:00 UTC): the vote split versus the 7-2 forecast could materially shift this read
US ISM Manufacturing today (f/c 54.6) and Tuesday's midterms are USD-side risk for the range edges