Higher highs/lows since Wednesday; Monday lower highs pressing 1.3400.
The climb from Wednesday's 1.3272 low extended in Monday's London open as the oil slide dragged the USD, tagging the 1.3448 week high before a sharp rejection back to the 1.3401 Monday low. Since then NY hours printed a run of lower highs and price has slipped to 1.3405, just under EMA(20) at 1.3408 and sitting on the 23.6% fib of the week's impulse, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s. The 1.3433 Friday high has capped Monday's rebound attempts so far.
Support: 1.3401, 1.3381, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3408, 1.3433, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3401 Monday low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3381, just under the 1.3385 weekly open
Failure to hold the 1.3374 Friday low breaks the higher-low sequence in place since Wednesday
Close back above EMA(20) and the lower highs line, then the 1.3433 Friday high, reopens the 1.3448 week high
US midterm results overnight and BoE Super Thursday (Nov 5, 12:00 GMT) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 1.3272; shallow pullback to 23.6% fib under week high.
Higher lows have held since Wednesday's 1.3272 London low. Most of the gains came in London hours, plus a Thursday NY-open breakout, as UK Budget relief, firming BoE hike pricing and an oil-driven USD slide fed the move. Monday's London push set a week high at 1.3448 that was rejected, and the NY session stalled at the 1.3431 prior high before drifting just under EMA(20) to the 23.6% level of the week's fib, with RSI(14) flattening near 49. The 1.3400 round number (Monday's 1.3401 low) is first support, with the 1.3374–1.3379 swing low aligned with the 38.2% retracement.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3376, 1.3360
Resistance: 1.3408, 1.3431, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3400 round number puts the 1.3376 swing low and 38.2% retracement in play
Break of the 1.3376 swing low ends the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 50% fib near 1.3360, Thursday's breakout area
Hourly close back above EMA(20) at 1.3408 and the 1.3431 prior high reopens a test of the 1.3448 week high
US midterms Tue and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could shift the USD side; Thursday's BoE decision is the main GBP risk this week
21:01 UTC
Uptrend, momentum cooling below the week high · RSI 53 · price 1.34107
The week rally from Wednesday's 1.3272 low has printed a clean run of higher lows, the latest at 1.3374 on Friday and in Monday's Asia session, helped by USD softness on the oil slide and pre-BoE hike positioning. A London-open spike to a six-week high at 1.3448 met rejection inside two hours, and price has since held a 1.3401–1.3431 band through NY hours. Price sits just above a flattening EMA(20) at 1.3409, with RSI(14) cooled to ~53 from Monday morning's push.
Support: 1.3401, 1.3385, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3431, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3431 NY high reopens the 1.3448 six-week high and the 1.3450 cap
Failure to hold the 1.3401 pullback low exposes the 1.3385 weekly open and the 38.2% retrace of the week rally near 1.3381
Break of the 1.3374 Friday low and the higher-lows trendline ends the uptrend read
US midterm results overnight and JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; BoE decision Thu 12:00 GMT is the larger event risk
Higher lows since Wednesday; Monday lower highs compressing above 1.3400.
Cable has climbed about 175 pips off Wednesday's London low at 1.3272 as the budget relief rally in sterling met a softer post-Fed dollar, with higher lows holding through Friday's NY dip to the friday low at 1.3374. Monday's London push printed a six-week high at 1.3448 on oil-driven USD weakness, then met immediate rejection, and NY hours have since carved lower highs with supply capping near the friday high at 1.3433. Price now sits on the ema20 around 1.3408 with RSI(14) back near 51, at the 23.6% level of the week fib and just above the monday low at 1.3401.
Support: 1.3401, 1.3385, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3408, 1.3433, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close below the monday low at 1.3401 exposes the weekly open at 1.3385 and the 38.2% week fib near 1.3381
Failure to hold the friday low at 1.3374 would break the week's higher-low sequence
Close above the Monday lower highs line and the 1.3433 friday high puts the 1.3448 week high back in play
US midterms Tue and JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC could shift USD tone; BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC is the main sterling risk to this read
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday; tight 1.3401–1.3431 consolidation since Monday's London high.
GBPUSD has printed higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3272 London low. The budget-driven GBP bid and post-FOMC USD softness carried it to a six-week high at 1.3448 in Monday's London session, with Thursday's NY session adding the largest leg. Since then price has held a 1.3401 pullback low and sits just above EMA(20), capped beneath Friday's high at 1.3434, with RSI(14) easing back to the mid-50s. Below, the weekly open at 1.3385 aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the week impulse, and Friday's low at 1.3374 sits underneath.
Support: 1.34008, 1.33852, 1.33737
Resistance: 1.34336, 1.34479
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3434 Friday high puts the 1.3448 six-week high back in play
A break below the 1.3401 pullback low would breach the higher-low line and expose the weekly open at 1.3385
Losing the 1.3374 Friday low would break the week's higher-low sequence
US midterms Tue and JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC could materially shift USD and this read
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC is the main event risk for the range
18:01 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating below the 6-week high · RSI 59 · price 1.34184
Higher lows since Wednesday, compressing 1.3401–1.3431.
Cable has carved higher lows since Wednesday's Budget-day trough at 1.3272. The dominant legs came in Thursday's NY session and at Monday's London open, the latter tagging a 6-week high at 1.3448 before a sharp rejection back to the 1.3401 pullback low. Price has since compressed between 1.3401 and the 1.3431 intraday cap, holding above EMA(20) near 1.3410, with RSI(14) cooling to ~59 from above 70 as the oil-driven USD softness offset the ISM beat; the weekly open at 1.3385 and the friday low at 1.3374 sit beneath, around the 38.2% fib of the week's impulse.
Support: 1.3401, 1.3385, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3431, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3448 6-week high extends the higher-high sequence through the 1.3435-1.3450 cap
Loss of the 1.3401 pullback low and the higher-low trendline exposes the weekly open at 1.3385
Break below the 1.3374 friday low would end the higher-low sequence and the 38.2% fib hold
US midterms Tue and JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of BoE Thursday
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday; Monday rejection at 1.3448 now ranging above EMA20.
The rally from Wednesday's 1.3272 low has printed a higher high every day. Thursday's NY session drove the main leg, Friday topped at 1.3434, and the London open today extended to a 1.3448 week high before a rejection. That pullback held the 1.3401 pullback low at EMA(20), and the NY session has ranged beneath the 1.3431 session high. The ISM beat failed to lift USD as oil slid, and RSI(14) has cooled to around 60 from the London spike.
Support: 1.3401, 1.3385, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3431, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3401 pullback low breaks the Monday higher-low trendline and EMA(20), exposing the 1.3385 weekly open
Failure to hold the 1.3374 Friday low, below the 38.2% rally fib near 1.3381, would undercut the higher-low sequence
Acceptance above the 1.3448 week high negates the rejection read and brings the 1.3450 cap from the digest into play
US midterm results overnight Tue into Wed and Thursday's BoE decision (12:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; JOLTS Tue 15:00 UTC is the nearer USD event
Higher lows since Wednesday; post-spike range 1.3401-1.3431 above EMA(20).
GBPUSD has climbed about 175 pips off Wednesday's 1.3272 low. The soothing UK Budget and a softer post-FOMC USD built a sequence of higher lows along the week trendline, and London sessions drove the main legs on Friday and again at Monday's open. The spike to the 1.3448 week high was rejected just under the 1.3450 cap. Since then the London low at 1.3401 has held twice, sitting near the 23.6% retracement of the Wednesday–Monday impulse, while price holds above EMA(20) at 1.3408 with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 1.3408, 1.34008, 1.33852
Resistance: 1.34309, 1.34479
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3401 london low and EMA(20) opens a deeper retracement toward the 1.3385 weekly open and the week trendline near 1.3391
NY session high at 1.3431 is a lower high under the week high; reclaiming it negates the intraday pullback
Acceptance above the 1.3448 week high clears the 1.3450 cap flagged ahead of the BoE
Fed's Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, US midterms Tue and BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday; rejection at 1.3448, lower high at 1.3431.
GBPUSD has climbed about 175 pips off Wednesday's 1.3272 low. The leg higher was driven by Thursday's NY session and Friday's London push, as a soft post-FOMC dollar and a calm Budget read supported sterling. Monday's London session extended to a two-week high at 1.3448, inside the 1.3435-1.3450 resistance band, before a rejection pulled price back to a pullback low at 1.3401, and the NY open then printed a lower high at 1.3431. Price sits just above EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooled to ~57, while rising support from Friday's low, the weekly open at 1.3385 and the friday low at 1.3374 sit beneath.
Support: 1.3401, 1.3385, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3431, 1.3448
What it said to watch
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) could shift the read within the next bar
An H1 close above the 1.3448 two-week high resumes the higher-high sequence
Loss of the 1.3401 pullback low and rising support exposes the weekly open at 1.3385, near the 38.2% fib
A break of the friday low at 1.3374 would end the higher-low structure
BoE Thu Nov 5 and Tue US midterms are the larger event risks for this week's range
Higher lows since Wednesday; pullback from 1.3448 holding above 1.3400.
GBP/USD has printed rising lows since Wednesday's London low at 1.3272. Thursday's NY session broke the 1.3338 breakout lvl, and the move extended on post-Budget Gilt relief, firmer BoE hike pricing and a softer USD into the midterms, reaching a 1.3448 week high in London this morning. That high was rejected within the hour, but the pullback held 1.3401 (pullback low) twice, near the 23.6% retracement and just under EMA(20) at ~1.3406. Price is back above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 60, and the 1.3434 friday high is the first cap overhead.
Support: 1.3401, 1.3379, 1.3338
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC are the next USD inputs that could shift this read
An H1 close below the 1.3401 pullback low and EMA(20) shifts focus to the 1.3379 monday low, which sits on the 38.2% fib
Acceptance above the 1.3448 week high extends the rising-lows sequence; a second rejection below it opens a double-top risk
Loss of the 1.3338 breakout lvl would unwind Thursday's NY-session breakout; BoE Thursday 12:00 UTC is the larger event risk
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at week high · RSI 58 · price 1.34126
Since Wednesday's Budget-day low at 1.3272, the pair has rallied in steps. The NY-session breakout on Thursday cleared 1.3340, and Friday's dip held above the 38.2% fib, carving a higher low at the friday low of 1.3374. Monday's London session pushed through the friday high at 1.3434 to a week high of 1.3448 on a softer USD, but the move was rejected straight back to the london low at 1.3401. Price is now holding just above EMA(20) near 1.3403, with RSI(14) back to the high 50s. The weekly open at 1.3385 sits with EMA(50) as the next floor below.
Support: 1.3401, 1.3385, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3448 week high negates the false-break read and extends the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3401 london low exposes the weekly open / EMA(50) confluence at 1.3385
A break of the 1.3374 friday low would end the higher-low sequence and open the 50% fib near 1.3360
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today and Tuesday's midterms could materially shift the USD side of this read
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC (vote split, guidance) is the main risk to the week high / friday high cap
12:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after rejection · RSI 54 · price 1.3404
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday, retracing from 1.3448 week high.
Higher lows have held since Wednesday's 1.3272 London-open low. Thursday's NY-session breakout from the 1.3300–1.3340 range, helped by the post-budget GBP bid and a softer dollar, carried the rally to a 1.3448 week high in early London today. That push was rejected just below 1.3450, and price has slipped back onto EMA(20) near 1.3403 and the 23.6% retracement, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-50s. The Friday high at 1.3434 caps the immediate upside, while the weekly open at 1.3385 and the Friday low at 1.3374 define the higher-low structure below.
Support: 1.3403, 1.3385, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3434, 1.3448
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3448 week high clears the 1.3435–1.3450 cap
Loss of EMA(20) and the weekly open at 1.3385 exposes the 38.2% retracement of the rally near 1.3381
Failure to hold the 1.3374 Friday low breaks the higher-low sequence and the higher-low line
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could shift the USD tone today
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC: a vote split away from the 7-2 forecast could materially shift this read
11:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at week high · RSI 60 · price 1.34218
Higher lows since Wednesday; false break above Friday high.
Cable has carved higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3272 London low. The reassuring UK budget lifted it, and a softer dollar on US-Iran diplomacy carried it through Thursday's NY session. Monday's London open pushed to a 1.3448 week high above Friday's 1.3434 high, but the hour closed back below it, a false break with rejection under the 1.3450 cap. Price sits at 1.3422, still above EMA(20) near 1.3403 with RSI(14) around 60, while the 38.2% retracement of the budget rally at 1.3381 overlaps the weekly open at 1.3385.
Support: 1.3403, 1.33852, 1.33737
Resistance: 1.34336, 1.34479
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 1.3434 Friday high negates the false break and reopens the 1.3448 week high
Pullbacks holding EMA(20) near 1.3403 keep the higher-lows sequence intact
Failure to hold the weekly open at 1.3385 and Friday low at 1.3374 breaks the higher lows trendline
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today and the BoE decision on Thu Nov 5 at 12:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, fresh leg higher · RSI 74 · price 1.34428
Higher lows since Wednesday; Friday high cleared at London open.
GBPUSD has climbed roughly 170 pips off Wednesday's 1.3272 low. The rally started with the Budget-driven rebound, extended in Thursday's NY session and resumed at Monday's London open on BoE hike bets and a softer USD tied to Iran diplomacy hopes. Friday's NY pullback from the 1.3434 friday high stalled at 1.3374, and the Asian range held above that friday low before London pushed through to a 1.3444 session high. Price now sits well above EMA(20) near 1.3400, with RSI(14) in overbought territory around 74 as the 1.3450 round number comes into view.
Support: 1.3434, 1.3400, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3444, 1.3450
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3434 friday high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold EMA(20) near 1.3400 would put the higher-low line toward 1.3374 in play
A break of the 1.3374 friday low breaks the higher-low sequence and the weekly impulse fib structure
1.3444 session high and 1.3450 round number: area to watch for rejection or acceptance
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today and Thursday's BoE decision could materially shift this read
The week's dominant leg ran from Wednesday's 1.3272 low, with Thursday's NY session driving the impulse from 1.3301 to 1.3380 and Friday's London push extending it to the 1.3434 week high on a calm post-Budget gilt market and firm BoE hike pricing. Friday's NY pullback stalled at the fib 38.2 near 1.3374, and Monday's Asia low at 1.3379 held as a higher low just under the 1.3385 weekly open. London open has broken price out of the Asian range and back above the ema20 near 1.3396 as USD softens on Iran-diplomacy hopes, with the session high at 1.3417 and RSI(14) at 65, well below Friday's ~82 peak.
Support: 1.3396, 1.3385, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3417, 1.3434, 1.3450
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3434 week high opens the path toward the 1.3450 round number; a stall there leaves a two-touch cap.
A new high on RSI(14) below Friday's ~82 reading would mark bearish divergence.
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 1.3396 keep the higher-low sequence intact; a return below the 1.3385 weekly open shifts the read back to range.
A break below the fib 38.2 / Friday low at 1.3374 breaks the higher low and exposes the 50% retracement near 1.3353.
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could shift this read. Thursday's BoE decision at 12:00 UTC is the week's main event risk.
Higher lows; Friday pullback held the 38.2% retracement.
Thursday's NY session drove the week's impulse, lifting GBPUSD out of the 1.3300–1.3338 range as the dollar softened and BoE hike bets firmed after the calm Budget. Friday's London leg printed the week high at 1.3434 with RSI(14) near 77, and the NY rejection pulled price to the fri low at 1.3374, right on the 38.2% fib of the Wednesday–Friday impulse. Monday's Asian dip to 1.3379 held above that as a higher low, and price is back above ema20 (1.3393) and the weekly open (1.3385), pressing the 1.3406 fri ny high into London open with RSI(14) reset to ~58.
Support: 1.3393, 1.3385, 1.3374
Resistance: 1.3406, 1.3434
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3406 fri ny high reopens the 1.3434 week high, the cap on Friday's rejection
Loss of ema20 and the weekly open at 1.3385 breaks the higher lows line and puts the fri low at 1.3374 / 38.2% fib back in play
Close below 1.3374 undercuts the Wednesday–Friday impulse and shifts the read to a deeper retracement
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC today (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid f/c 77) could materially shift this read; BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC is the week's main GBP risk
Higher lows from 1.3272; tight 1.3374–1.3406 band under lower highs.
Sterling's rally from Wednesday's 1.3272 swing low came on the back of the soothing UK Budget and firming BoE hike bets. It broke the 1.3338 range top in Thursday's NY session and ran to a week high at 1.3434 into Friday's London-NY transition. The sharp NY pullback found demand at Friday's low of 1.3374, the 38.2% level of the week rally fib, and price has since compressed beneath a lower highs line, with Monday's Asian range (1.3379–1.3401) holding above the weekly open at 1.3385 and RSI(14) back to a neutral 54 near a flattening EMA(20) at 1.3392.
Support: 1.33852, 1.33737, 1.33384
Resistance: 1.34014, 1.34336
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.3374 (friday low, 38.2% of the week rally fib) breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3338 range top
Close above the Asian high at 1.3401 and the lower highs line reopens the 1.3434 week high
Sustained trade back below the weekly open at 1.3385 shifts the consolidation to the lower half of its band
US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
BoE decision and MPR Thu 12:00 UTC is the dominant event risk for this week's structure
Higher lows intact; Asian range coiling above Friday's 38.2% pullback.
Cable's rally ran from Wednesday's London-open low at 1.3272 to Friday's 1.3434 week high. Thursday's NY session break of the 1.3338 cap did most of the work as the UK Budget eased gilt yields and BoE hike pricing firmed. Friday's NY drop stopped at 1.3374, almost exactly the 38.2% fib of the rally, and the rising lows from Thursday held. Monday's Asian range of 1.3379–1.3393 straddles the weekly open and sits on EMA(20) near 1.3391, with RSI(14) back to 53 from 77 at Friday's peak.
Support: 1.33852, 1.33737, 1.3353
Resistance: 1.33929, 1.34057, 1.34336
What it said to watch
H1 close below the rising lows and the 38.2% fib at 1.3374 would expose the 50% fib near 1.3353, Thursday's breakout zone
A move through the Asian high at 1.3393 and Friday's NY lower high at 1.3406 reopens the 1.3434 week high
Loss of the weekly open at 1.3385 inside the London session would turn the Asian range into a lower-high sequence
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today can move the USD side; the BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC is the main structural risk this week
Higher lows since Wednesday; tight Asian range on EMA20.
Cable has printed higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3272 London-session low. It broke the 1.3338 range top in Thursday's NY session and ran to a 1.3434 week high in Friday's London session as the soothing UK budget firmed BoE hike bets. Friday's NY pullback found demand at the 1.3374 friday low, close to the 38.2% fib of the impulse, and Monday's Asian range (asian low 1.3379, asian high 1.3393) is coiling on a flat EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 51.
Support: 1.33789, 1.33737, 1.33384
Resistance: 1.33929, 1.3400, 1.34336
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3374 friday low (38.2% fib) exposes the 1.3338 range top, near the 61.8% retracement
Acceptance above the 1.3393 asian high and the 1.3400 round number reopens the 1.3434 week high
Range-bound action between the asian low and asian high persists until US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC (25bp hike priced, 7-2 vote expected) could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Uptrend from Wednesday low, stalled after Friday rejection · RSI 48 · price 1.33851
Rejected at 1.3434, now a tight 1.3374–1.3406 consolidation.
The week's dominant move came in Thursday's NY session, when cable broke above the 1.3338 range top. It extended through Friday's London session to a 1.3434 week high as post-Budget BoE hike bets lifted sterling. Friday's NY session then saw a sharp ~70-pip rejection to the 1.3374 friday low, which held at the 38.2% retrace of the Wednesday–Friday impulse. Since then, price has compressed between that low and the 1.3406 lower high. Monday's Asian session is flat around the 1.3385 weekly open, just under the H1 ema20 near 1.3390, with RSI(14) back near 47 from Friday's overbought run.
Support: 1.3374, 1.3353, 1.3338
Resistance: 1.3390, 1.3406, 1.3434
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3406 lower high reopens the 1.3434 week high
Failure to hold the 1.3374 friday low exposes the fib 50% at 1.3353 and the 1.3338 range top
Repeated failure to reclaim ema20 near 1.3390 keeps the post-rejection consolidation in place
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today could break the consolidation
BoE decision Thu 12:00 UTC is the main event risk for the week's structure
Higher lows from Wednesday's low; post-high pullback now ranging.
Cable rallied from Wednesday's London-session low at 1.3272 after the UK Budget firmed BoE hike bets. The dominant leg came in Thursday's NY session, from 1.3324 to 1.3380, and the move extended to a week high of 1.3434 in Friday's London session. NY then reversed it to the 1.3374 friday low, a level that coincides with the 38.2% retracement and the EMA50. Monday's Asian range of 1.3381–1.3393 is sitting just under the EMA20 near 1.3391 with RSI(14) at 46, and a sequence of lower highs is capping price since Friday's peak.
Support: 1.3381, 1.3374, 1.3360
Resistance: 1.3391, 1.3407, 1.3434
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3374 friday low and 38.2% fib exposes the 1.3360 thu low and the 50% retracement near 1.3353
A close back above the EMA20 and the lower highs line, through the 1.3407 prior high, reopens the 1.3434 week high
A break of the 1.3381 asian low would extend the pullback from the week high
US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC Monday could shift the USD leg
BoE decision, MPC vote and guidance on Thu 12:00 UTC are the main event risk for this structure
Higher highs and lows Wed–Fri; now compressing 1.3374–1.3406 after a 38.2% pullback.
Cable climbed roughly 160 pips off Wednesday's 1.3272 low after the soothing UK Budget. The leg extended through a Thursday breakout in NY hours, then a London-led push printed a 1.3434 week high on Friday as BoE hike conviction built and DXY slid. Selling in the first hours of NY on Friday retraced to the 1.3374 Friday low, almost exactly the 38.2% fib of the Wed–Fri rally. Price has since compressed below the 1.3406 bounce high, sitting just under a flattening EMA(20) at 1.3392 with RSI(14) reset from overbought to ~51. Monday's Asian range dipped to 1.3381 but held near the 1.3385 weekly open.
Support: 1.33852, 1.33737, 1.33586
Resistance: 1.33915, 1.34057, 1.34336
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.3406 bounce high reopens a test of the 1.3434 week high
Break below the 1.3374 Friday low (38.2% fib) exposes the 1.3359 Thursday breakout and the 50% fib near 1.3353
Sustained trade back above EMA(20) at 1.3392 would end the current compression below it
US ISM Manufacturing Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid f/c 77) could shift this read ahead of Thursday's BoE decision
01:02 UTC
Uptrend from Wednesday low, pausing below week high · RSI 49 · price 1.33853
The ~160-pip rally from Wednesday's 1.3272 London-open low was driven by Thursday's NY breakout through the 1.3338 range top, as USD faded on lower yields and BoE hike bets firmed. Friday's NY session pulled back from the 1.3434 week high to a fri low at 1.3374, which lines up with EMA(50) and the 38.2% fib of the rally, and price has since ranged beneath it with RSI(14) easing to ~49 from overbought. The weekly open at 1.3385 sits just under ema20 at 1.3391.
Support: 1.3374, 1.3355, 1.3338
Resistance: 1.3391, 1.3406, 1.3434
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 at 1.3391 and the 1.3406 lower high puts the 1.3434 week high back in play
Failure to hold the fri low at 1.3374 exposes the 50% fib near 1.3355 and the 1.3338 range top
US ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid (Mon 15:00 UTC) could move USD; BoE decision Thu 12:00 GMT is the week's main GBP risk
00:01 UTC
Uptrend since Wednesday low, in pullback · RSI 44 · price 1.33817
Higher lows from 1.3272; Friday pullback held 38.2% fib.
The rebound from Wednesday's 1.3272 low accelerated in Thursday's NY session on broad USD softness and firm BoE hike pricing, extending to a 1.3434 week high on Friday before a rejection in early NY. The pullback found the 38.2% fib of that leg at the 1.3374 Friday low. Monday opened slightly below Friday's close and is trading under EMA(20) near 1.3394 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s, but price holds above EMA(50) and the higher-low trendline from Wednesday's low stays intact.
Support: 1.3374, 1.3353, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3394, 1.3406, 1.3434
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3374 friday low exposes the 50% fib at 1.3353 and the thursday low at 1.3296
Reclaiming ema20 and the 1.3406 lower high reopens the 1.3434 week high
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) could reshape USD tone ahead of Tuesday's midterms
BoE decision Thu 12:00 GMT, with the MPC vote split vs the 7-2 forecast, is the major event risk for this structure