Tuesday's London rally to the 1.3286 week high unwound over Wednesday and Thursday London sessions to the 1.3184 week low before NY hours drove the recovery. Since then GBP/USD has printed a higher low at 1.3206 in Friday's NY session and recovered above ema20 near 1.3232, with GBP shrugging off the US Michigan miss as Waller's comments eased yields. Supply has capped three attempts at 1.3244–1.3250, the friday high and 61.8% fib of the week's decline, so the pair sits compressed between lower highs and higher lows with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 1.3232, 1.3206, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3250 friday high and the 61.8% fib breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 1.3286 week high
Loss of the 1.3206 higher low ends the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 1.3184 week low
Repeated H1 closes back below ema20 at 1.3232 would signal another rejection from the range top
BoE Breeden (Mon 09:30 UTC) and Mann (12:50 UTC) could shift November hike pricing and this read, with US CPI on Wed the larger risk
Lower highs and higher lows converging inside the 1.3184–1.3286 weekly range.
Tuesday's London rally to the 1.3286 week high failed, and a two-day slide set the 1.3184 week low on Thursday morning before NY-session demand lifted cable back toward 1.3250 as US yields paused. Since then the 1.3250 lower high and Friday's 1.3206 higher low have compressed price around the 50% retracement of the week's decline. Price is holding just above the EMA(20) at 1.3229 with RSI(14) near 54, and the weak Michigan sentiment print (46.3) left the tape flat into the close.
Support: 1.3229, 1.3206, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3250 lower high, which sits near the 61.8% retracement, breaks the lower-high line and opens the path back to the 1.3286 week high
Loss of the 1.3206 friday low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 1.3184 week low
Repeated closes below the ema20 at 1.3229 would shift the compression toward the lower half of the range
US CPI on Wed Oct 14 at 12:30 UTC, with Fedspeak from Hammack (Mon) and Waller (Tue) ahead of it, could materially shift this read
BoE Breeden and Mann on Mon Oct 12, plus UK Aug GDP on Thu Oct 15, are the GBP-side risk to the range
17:02 UTC
Two-way, flat at EMAs after rebound · RSI 46 · price 1.32281
Lower highs from 1.3286 against higher lows from 1.3184, contracting mid-range.
Cable rejected the 1.3286 week high after Tuesday's London-session spike, then slid for two days to a 1.3184 week low in Thursday's London session before rebounding into NY as US yields paused. Friday's Asia push stalled at the 1.3250 friday high, close to the 61.8% fib of the decline, and the NY dip set a higher low at 1.3206, so the pair is compressing between lower highs and higher lows. Price sits flat on EMA(20) near 1.3228 with RSI(14) around 46, and the Michigan sentiment miss left the pair little changed.
Support: 1.32056, 1.31842
Resistance: 1.3250
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3250 friday high breaks the lower highs line and brings the 1.3286 week high back into view
Loss of the 1.3206 higher low breaks the higher lows line and reopens the 1.3184 week low
A hold near the 38.2% fib at 1.3223 keeps the consolidation read intact into the weekly close
BoE Breeden and Mann on Monday and US CPI on Wednesday could materially shift this read
1.3184–1.3286 weekly range with lower highs at 1.3250; price back in lower half.
Tuesday's London spike set the week high at 1.3286, and the dollar's push to an 18-month high then drove London-session selling on Wednesday and Thursday to the 1.3193 Wed low and the 1.3184 week low. Thursday's NY recovery stalled at 1.3248, and the 1.3250 Fri high in early Friday trade was another lower high. Today's London fade has taken price back below EMA(20) near 1.3228 to the 1.3206 today low, a 61.8% retrace of the Thursday rally fib, with RSI(14) slipping to the low 40s.
Support: 1.3206, 1.3193, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3228, 1.3250, 1.3286
What it said to watch
Michigan sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.3206 today low exposes the 1.3193 wed low and 1.3184 week low at the range floor
H1 close back above the ema20 near 1.3228 and then the 1.3250 fri high breaks the lower highs sequence
A close above the 1.3286 week high invalidates the range read
1.3184–1.3286 range; lower high at 1.3250 vs higher-low line off the week low.
GBPUSD has unwound Tuesday's London-session push to the 1.3286 week high, sliding through Wednesday and Thursday London hours to a 1.3184 week low. The pair then rebounded in Thursday's NY session as US yields paused and the USD corrected. That rebound stalled twice at 1.3248–1.3250, the 61.8% cap of the Tuesday–Thursday decline, and price has slipped back onto a flat ema20 near 1.3230 with RSI(14) near the midline. The higher-low line off the week low runs just below, with Friday's fri low at 1.3221 the first support.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3230, 1.3250, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% cap at 1.3250 breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.3286 week high back in play
Loss of the 1.3221 fri low and the higher-low line reopens the 1.3184 week low, the range floor
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read via yields
Sustained trade below the ema20 at 1.3230 keeps the rebound capped inside the range
Lower highs off 1.3286 inside 1.3184–1.3286 week range.
Tuesday's London-to-NY impulse to the 1.3286 week high was fully unwound by Thursday's London low at the 1.3184 week low as surging US yields lifted the dollar, leaving cable inside a 1.3184–1.3286 range. The rebound on Waller's comments and the pause in the yield rally stalled twice at 1.3248–1.3250, the Thursday NY spike high and the friday high, right at the 61.8% of the Tue-Thu fall, extending the lower-highs sequence from Tuesday. This morning's London drop has pushed price back under ema20 near 1.3232 and the EMA(50) to the 38.2% retracement at 1.3223, sitting on the friday low with RSI(14) back below 50.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3203, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3232, 1.3250, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close below the friday low at 1.3221 exposes the thu ny low at 1.3203 and then the 1.3184 week low
Close back above ema20 and through the 1.3250 friday high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 1.3286 week high back into view
Failure to hold the 1.3184 week low invalidates the range read
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3184 inside 1.3184–1.3286 weekly range.
GBPUSD has rebuilt from Thursday's London-session week low at 1.3184, printing higher lows through NY and into Friday as the dollar eased on softer yields and Iran de-escalation. The recovery has reached the 61.8% fib of the Tuesday 1.3286 week high to Thursday low decline, where Thursday's NY spike and Friday's early high both stalled near 1.3250. Price holds above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 58, sitting on the higher lows trendline with the friday low at 1.3231 just beneath.
Support: 1.3231, 1.3203, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.3250 opens a retest of the 1.3286 week high
Break of the higher lows trendline and the friday low at 1.3231 shifts focus to the 1.3203 higher low
Failure to hold the 1.3184 week low breaks the weekly range floor
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:03 UTC
Range, recovering off the week low · RSI 59 · price 1.32378
Higher lows from 1.3184 inside a 1.3184–1.3286 weekly range.
Tuesday's London-to-NY rally to the 1.3286 range top was fully unwound by Thursday's London morning, when the dollar pressed 18-month highs and the pair printed a 1.3184 week low. Since then the pair has built higher lows at 1.3203 and 1.3231 as US yields paused and Trump's Iran remarks drained safe-haven demand. The fib 61.8% retracement near 1.3250 has capped three attempts, most recently in the Asia session. Price sits on the higher-low trendline, with EMA(20) near 1.3232 and RSI(14) holding around 59.
Support: 1.3231, 1.3203, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3250 fib 61.8% cap opens the path to the 1.3286 range top
Close below the higher-low trendline and the 1.3231 session low exposes the 1.3203 higher low
Break of the 1.3184 week low would invalidate the range read
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (17:00 broker) could materially shift this read via US yields
Higher lows since Thursday inside the 1.3184-1.3286 week range.
Tuesday's London-NY rally to the 1.3286 week high unwound through Wednesday and Thursday, putting in a week low at 1.3184 in Thursday's London session before a NY-hours recovery as US Treasury yields corrected. Price has since printed higher lows above a rising trendline, holding over EMA(20) with RSI(14) in the low 60s, and is now retesting the 1.3250 Friday high, which coincides with the 61.8% retracement of the Tue-Thu decline. The 1.3200 range floor and the 1.3276-1.3286 cap zone still frame the week.
Support: 1.3231, 1.3200, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3276, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3250 Friday high and 61.8% fib opens the 1.3276 cap zone and the 1.3286 week high
Loss of the 1.3231 Asia low and the rising trendline returns focus to the 1.3200 range floor and 1.3184 week low
US UoM Sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC in the NY session could materially shift this read via yields
Higher lows off Thursday's week low, capped at 1.3250 inside the 1.3184–1.3286 week range.
GBPUSD has rotated inside a 1.3184–1.3286 range this week. Tuesday's London-led push to the week high reversed Wednesday, and Thursday's week low gave way to a NY-session rebound as US yields paused and Iran headlines cut haven demand for USD. Higher lows have since held along a rising trendline, with price above EMA(20) near 1.3230 and RSI(14) around 57, but the 1.3250 cap / 61.8% retracement of the Tue–Thu decline has turned back three tests, the latest into London open today.
Support: 1.32311, 1.3200, 1.31842
Resistance: 1.3250
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3250 cap / 61.8% level opens the path to the 1.3286 week high
A break of today's low at 1.3231 and the rising trendline exposes the 1.3200 round number at the range floor
Loss of 1.3200 ends the higher-low sequence and puts the 1.3184 week low back in play
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Fed's Collins, could shift the yield driver behind this range
06:02 UTC
Range-bound, recovering off the floor · RSI 62 · price 1.32425
1.3184-1.3286 weekly range; higher lows since Thursday.
Tuesday's London-session push to the 1.3286 range top drew a rejection. Wednesday's gilt-driven selloff and Thursday's London dip took out the 1.3200 range floor to a 1.3184 week low, and the break failed once Waller's comments softened the USD into NY hours. Since then price has printed higher lows and holds above EMA(20) near 1.3230, with RSI(14) near 62. The Asia-session grind has stalled at the 1.3250 thu/fri high, which sits at the 61.8% retracement of the Tuesday-Thursday drop.
Support: 1.3230, 1.3200, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3250 thu/fri high and 61.8% fib opens the path back to the 1.3286 range top
Loss of the rising trendline and ema20 near 1.3230 would return focus to the 1.3200 range floor
A renewed break below the 1.3184 week low would turn Thursday's false break into a range break
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
BoE Breeden on Monday 09:30 UTC is the next GBP rate-pricing catalyst for the range
1.3184–1.3286 range; lower highs from Tue, higher lows since Thu.
Tuesday's London rally to the 1.3286 week high faded. Wednesday and Thursday London selling pushed price to a 1.3184 week low, a brief sweep under the Mon/Wed 1.3190 lows, before the NY session reclaimed the floor. Asia extended the bounce on Waller's softer remarks, putting price above EMA(20) near 1.3227 with RSI(14) near 60. Price has retraced about 55% of the Tue–Thu decline, but supply has capped two pushes at the 1.3248 fri high, and the line of lower highs from Tuesday remains intact.
Support: 1.3227, 1.3203, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3248, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3248 fri high breaks the lower-highs line and opens a retest of the 1.3286 week high and range cap
Loss of ema20 near 1.3227 shifts focus back to the 1.3203 pullback low that has held Thursday's higher lows
Break below the 1.3184 week low ends the range read
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding off the floor · RSI 64 · price 1.32423
1.3184–1.3286 range; false break of 1.3200 reversed, recovery capped at 1.3248 twin highs.
Tuesday's London rally to the 1.3286 week high fully unwound from Wednesday's London open, and Thursday morning's push to the 1.3184 week low became a false break of the 1.3200 floor. The NY-session reversal came as Waller's comments and the Trump Iran post softened the USD. The rebound has stalled twice at 1.3248, on Thursday and again in Asia today, forming twin highs at the 61.8% fib of the decline, while price holds above EMA(20) at 1.3226 with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 1.3226, 1.3203, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3248, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3248 twin highs clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 1.3286 week high at the range top
Loss of EMA(20) at 1.3226 and the 1.3203 Thursday NY low would return focus to the 1.3184 week low
US UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 1.3184 inside 1.3184–1.3286 weekly range.
Tuesday's London-NY rally to the 1.3286 week high was fully unwound by Wednesday, and Thursday's London session printed a week low at 1.3184, nine pips under Wednesday's trough, forming a double bottom. NY hours then lifted the pair to 1.3248 after Waller's comments softened the USD. Asia session is now retesting that high, which sits at the 61.8% fib of the Tue-Thu decline, with price above a clustered ema20/EMA50 near 1.3222 and RSI(14) at 62.
Support: 1.3224, 1.3200, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3248, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3248 (61.8% fib) opens the path back to the 1.3286 week high
Break of the higher lows trendline and ema20 near 1.3222 returns focus to the 1.3200 round number and 1.3184 week low
US Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC Friday, plus Iran strike headlines, could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Range-bound, mild recovery off the floor · RSI 58 · price 1.32296
Ten-session range 1.3184–1.3286; lower high Thursday, flat lows near 1.3190.
Tuesday's London-session rally to the 1.3286 range top was fully erased Wednesday as US 10y yields hit 5.30% and hawkish Fed minutes lifted the USD. Thursday's London session printed a new week low at 1.3184, just under Monday's 1.3190. NY then rebounded on Waller's comments, but a spike to the 1.3248 thu high was rejected near the 61.8% retracement. Price is drifting in a tight Asia session near 1.3230, holding above the ema20 and just below the 1.3238 weekly open, with RSI(14) around 58.
Support: 1.3219, 1.3200, 1.31842
Resistance: 1.32383, 1.32483
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3248 thu high and the lower-high trendline opens a retest of the 1.3286 range top
Failure to hold the ema20 near 1.3219 returns focus to the 1.3200 psych floor
A break of the 1.3184 week low ends the ten-session floor near 1.3200
Acceptance back above the 1.3238 weekly open would mark the first reclaim of Monday's starting level
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations plus Fed's Collins (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
1.3184–1.3286 range; Thursday high below Tuesday's.
GBPUSD has stayed inside a 1.3184–1.3286 range all week. Tuesday's London-led rally to the week high was fully unwound by Wednesday's NY session as US yields climbed and the Fed minutes came in hawkish. Thursday's London dip to a fresh week low at 1.3184 briefly undercut the 1.3200 round number before Waller's comments drove a NY recovery, but the spike to the 1.3248 Thu high met rejection near the 61.8% retracement; price now sits just above a flat ema20/ema50 cluster near 1.3220 with RSI(14) around 56.
Support: 1.3220, 1.3200, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3248, 1.3286
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 near 1.3220 returns focus to the 1.3200 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3184 week low breaks the ten-session floor near 1.3200
Close above the 1.3248 Thu high and the lower-highs line opens a retest of the 1.3286 week high
Loss of Thursday's rising lows line weakens the NY rebound structure
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations plus Fed's Collins Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read