GBP/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Tuesday, 13 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the GBP/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:01 UTC
Range-bound, higher lows since Monday NY low · RSI 60 · price 1.32526
Rebound from 1.3202 retesting the 1.3259–1.3261 range top.
Cable has held a 1.3184–1.3261 band across the window. Monday's London-open push to the monday high at 1.3261 was sold through NY hours to 1.3202 as the dollar printed fresh highs. Tuesday rebuilt from the Asian session in a run of higher lows as DXY eased toward 102.20, retaking the weekly open and EMA(20). Price now sits just under the monday high, with the Tuesday rally capping at 1.3259, RSI(14) near 60 and pullbacks finding EMA(20) around 1.3244.
Support: 1.3244, 1.3225, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3261, 1.3280
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3261 monday high breaks the three-week cap and opens the 1.3280 range top
Loss of the higher-lows trendline and EMA(20) near 1.3244 returns focus to the 1.3225 weekly open and the 50% of the Tuesday rally
Failure at the monday low of 1.3202 would put the 1.3200 floor at risk
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
UK Aug GDP Thu 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:01 UTC
Tuesday uptrend inside a multi-week range · RSI 61 · price 1.32525
Higher lows since Tuesday's Asia low, pressing the week high.
Monday's London-open spike to the 1.3261 week high reversed, and NY hours dragged cable to the 1.3202 Monday low as the dollar printed fresh highs. Tuesday's rally rebuilt from the Asia low on a line of higher lows through London and NY as USD eased on lower crude and yields. It tagged 1.3259, just shy of the week high, and the NY low at 1.3242 was defended twice. Price sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50), and RSI(14) near 61 is firm but not stretched, keeping the 1.3200–1.3280 range intact for now.
Support: 1.3242, 1.3225, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3261, 1.3280
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3261 week high opens the 1.3280 range top
Loss of the 1.3242 NY low and the Tuesday higher-lows trendline exposes the weekly open at 1.3225, near the 50% retracement of the Tuesday rally
Break below the 1.3202 Monday low and the 1.3200 floor would end the range read
US Sept CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC precedes it
1.3200–1.3260 range, Tuesday higher lows into top.
Monday's London open push to the 1.3261 week high reversed through NY to the 1.3202 monday low as the oil-driven USD bid peaked. Tuesday retraced the whole slide on a steady London-into-NY climb along a rising trendline, helped by Greene's hawkish remarks and USD easing off its highs. Price now sits above EMA(20) near 1.3241 and above the 1.3225 weekly open, with RSI(14) firm in the high 60s, pressing back into the week high.
Support: 1.3241, 1.3225, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3261, 1.3280
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3261 week high breaks the range cap and opens the 1.3280 range top
Rejection at the week high leaves a second failed test of the range top
Loss of Tuesday's trendline and the 38.2% fib of Tuesday's rally (~1.3238) would bring the weekly open back into play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and BoE Pill Wed 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a break of the 1.3200 floor below the monday low would end the range
20:01 UTC
Intraday recovery pressing the range top · RSI 67 · price 1.32567
Three-week range 1.3200–1.3261; Tuesday higher lows into Monday's high.
Monday's London-open spike to the 1.3261 Monday high reversed in the NY session as Brent topped $107 and DXY hit multi-month highs, sending cable back to the 1.3200 range floor. The Tuesday rally from the 1.3200–1.3205 area has built steady higher lows through London and NY, helped by a softer dollar into CPI and hawkish BoE Greene, and has retraced nearly all of Monday's drop. Price sits above the week open at 1.3225 and the ema20 near 1.3240, with RSI(14) near 67 as it presses the Monday high.
Support: 1.3240, 1.32253, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32612, 1.3280
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3261 Monday high opens the path to the 1.3280 range top
Break of Tuesday's rising support and the ema20 near 1.3240 returns price to mid-range, with the week open at 1.3225 next
US Sep CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
H1 acceptance below the 1.3200 range floor marks a breakdown of the three-week range
Higher lows since Monday's low, lower highs from week high.
Monday's London-open push to the 1.3261 week high reversed into NY hours as Brent and DXY spiked, with the slide holding at the 1.3202 Monday low just above the 1.3200 floor. Tuesday recovered close to 80% of that Monday sell-off on easing yields and crude, printing higher lows through London and NY and holding above EMA(20) near 1.3237. A rejection from the 1.3255 Tuesday high at the NY open keeps the lower highs from the week high intact, so the H1 picture is still a range rebound rather than a break.
Support: 1.3238, 1.32253, 1.32015
Resistance: 1.32546, 1.32612, 1.3280
What it said to watch
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with core m/m vs the 0.2% forecast as the swing factor
H1 close above the 1.3261 week high breaks the lower highs line and opens the 1.3280 range top
Loss of the 1.3238 ema20/ny low area breaks Tuesday's higher lows and puts the 1.3225 week open back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3202 Monday low would mark a break of the 1.3200 floor that has held all window
BoE Pill speaks Wed 06:00 UTC, so London-session hawkish pushback risk lands before CPI
18:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend inside a multi-day range · RSI 61 · price 1.32431
Higher lows since Monday's 1.3202 week low, capped below the 1.3261 week high.
Monday's London-open spike to the 1.3261 week high reversed into NY as Brent topped $107 and DXY jumped, printing a 1.3202 week low that held the 1.3200 floor. Tuesday recovered from Asia through NY as yields and oil eased, reclaiming the 1.3225 weekly open and EMA(20) along a line of higher lows. Price is now holding a shallow pullback above the 1.3238 NY dip low, under 23.6% of the Tuesday rally fib, with the 1.3255 day high capping. RSI(14) sits near 61, off its intraday peak.
Support: 1.3238, 1.3225, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3255, 1.3261, 1.3280
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3238 NY dip low and the Tuesday higher-lows trendline puts the 1.3229 50% fib and the 1.3225 weekly open back in play
Close above the 1.3255 day high and the 1.3261 week high opens the 1.3280 range top
Loss of the 1.3202 week low would break the 1.3200 floor that has held for 13 sessions
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; BoE Pill speaks Wed 06:00 UTC
Higher lows since Tuesday's open inside a 1.3202–1.3261 weekly range.
Monday's London-open spike to the 1.3261 week high reversed into NY as Brent topped $107 and DXY firmed, giving back almost the whole move to the 1.3202 week low. Tuesday has carried a steady run of higher lows from Asia through London as the dollar eased on softer yields. Price is back above the weekly open at 1.3225 and the H1 ema20 near 1.3235, retracing roughly 78.6% of Monday's drop. The first-hour-of-NY push to the 1.3255 tue high met supply, but the 1.3238 pullback low held above the rising line.
Support: 1.3235, 1.3225, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3255, 1.3261, 1.3280
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3261 week high puts the 1.3280 range top in play
Loss of the Tuesday higher-lows line and the ema20 near 1.3235 would reopen the weekly open at 1.3225
Failure at the 1.3255 tue high while still under the 78.6% of Monday's drop would leave a lower high inside the range
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) is the main range-break risk; a break of the 1.3202 week low would mark a breakdown of the multi-session 1.3200 floor
BoE Pill Wed 06:00 UTC and Fed's Bowman Wed 09:40 UTC could move price ahead of CPI
1.3202–1.3261 range; higher lows since Monday NY low, lower high capping.
Monday's London-open spike to the week high at 1.3261 met rejection, and an oil-driven USD dragged cable to a week low at 1.3202 during NY hours, holding just above the 1.3200 floor. Tuesday reversed that drop through London and into the NY open. A BRC retail beat, BoE Greene's hawkish line and softer US yields lifted price back above the weekly open and ema20, printing a string of Tuesday higher lows. The NY-session push stalled at a today high of 1.3255, a lower high against Monday's peak, with RSI(14) in the mid-60s and price holding near the top of Tuesday's rally fib.
Support: 1.3233, 1.32253, 1.32015
Resistance: 1.32546, 1.32612
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3261 week high breaks the lower-highs line and the range-top read
Loss of the ema20 and weekly open at 1.3225 breaks the Tuesday higher lows and puts the 1.3202 week low back in play
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
BoE Pill Wed 06:00 UTC adds London-session event risk
15:01 UTC
Intraday recovery inside a broader range · RSI 67 · price 1.3242
Higher lows since Asia, lower high vs Monday.
Cable has recovered about 50 pips off Monday's NY-session week low at 1.3202. The Tuesday rally began in the Asia session and carried through London on a run of higher lows, helped by Greene's hawkish remarks and the BRC beat, and price now sits above the EMA(20) near 1.3230 and the weekly open at 1.3225. The NY-open push stalled at a 1.3255 day high. That is a lower high beneath Monday's 1.3261 week high, where the London-open spike faded on the oil/USD leg. With RSI(14) easing from the high 60s, price is still inside the 1.3200–1.3280 range and the range top has not been tested this week.
Support: 1.3230, 1.32253, 1.32015
Resistance: 1.32546, 1.32612, 1.3280
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3261 week high opens the 1.3280 range top and breaks the lower-highs line
Loss of the Tuesday higher-lows trendline and the ema20 near 1.3230 exposes the 38.2% of the Tuesday rally fib (~1.3235) and the weekly open at 1.3225
Failure to hold the 1.3202 week low would put the 13-session 1.3200 floor under direct test
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend inside a broader range · RSI 65 · price 1.32477
Higher lows since Tuesday Asia; price pressing the 1.3250–1.3261 range-top highs.
After Monday's London-open rejection at the 1.3261 week high, the NY session drove price down to the 1.3202 monday low, just above the 1.3200 floor. Tuesday's London session has since built steady rising lows on Greene's hawkish remarks and the BRC beat, retracing about 77% of the monday drop. Price sits above ema20 near 1.3231 and the 1.3225 week open with RSI(14) near 65, now pressing the 1.3250–1.3253 prior highs that have capped hourly closes since Thursday's spike, inside the 1.3200–1.3280 range.
Support: 1.3231, 1.3225, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3253, 1.3261, 1.3280
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3261 week high would void Monday's rejection and put the 1.3280 range top in play
A break of Tuesday's rising lows and a close back below ema20 at 1.3231 would leave the prior highs as a second failure, with the week open at 1.3225 next
Loss of the 1.3202 monday low exposes the 1.3200 floor that has held 13 sessions
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; UK GDP Thu 06:00 UTC follows
13:01 UTC
Recovering within range, higher lows since Monday's low · RSI 68 · price 1.32461
1.3200–1.3261 range; Tuesday higher-low sequence pressing the upper half.
Cable printed its week high at 1.3261 on Monday's London open, then sold off into the NY session to the 1.3202 Monday low as Brent above $107 lifted the dollar. The Asian range then held near 1.3203, forming a double bottom against the floor. Since then Tuesday's London session has built higher lows back through the weekly open at 1.3225 and above EMA(20), helped by a softer USD on easing yields and oil plus the BRC retail beat. Price is now testing the 1.3250 prior highs with RSI(14) near 68 and has retraced beyond 61.8% of Monday's drop.
Support: 1.3225, 1.3202, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3261
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3261 week high breaks the range top and the Monday's-drop fib
Rejection at the 1.3250 prior highs with a close back below the weekly open at 1.3225 and the rising trendline returns price to mid-range
Loss of the 1.3202 Monday low exposes the 1.3184 prior wk low and the 13-session 1.3200 floor
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and BoE Pill Wed 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read; UK Aug GDP follows Thu 06:00 UTC
12:01 UTC
Range-bound, recovering toward range top · RSI 68 · price 1.32414
1.3184–1.3261 range; Tuesday higher lows off 1.3204.
Monday's early-London spike to the 1.3261 week high met rejection as Brent and DXY firmed, and the NY session sold it to the 1.3202 Monday low, again holding the 1.3200 area. Tuesday's London session has printed a series of higher lows from 1.3204, helped by Greene's hawkish remarks, the BRC beat and an easing USD. Price has retraced beyond 61.8% of Monday's drop and holds above a rising ema20 near 1.3227, with RSI(14) near 68 into the 1.3250 prior high.
Support: 1.3227, 1.32015, 1.31842
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.32612
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3261 week high breaks the range top
Rejection at the 1.3250 prior high keeps the range read intact
Break of Tuesday's higher lows trendline returns focus to ema20 at 1.3227
Failure to hold the 1.3200 monday low exposes the 1.3184 range low
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Range, intraday recovery stretching into the cap · RSI 71 · price 1.32431
Monday's pre-London push to the 1.3261 week high was sold through London and NY down to the 1.3202 Monday low, keeping the 1.3200 floor intact. Since Asia today cable has built higher lows, reclaiming the weekly open at 1.3225 and both EMAs and retracing beyond 61.8% of Monday's drop, helped by the BRC retail beat and hawkish BoE commentary. Price now sits just below prior highs around 1.3250, which capped Thursday, Friday and early Monday rallies, with RSI(14) near 71 in overbought territory.
Support: 1.3225, 1.32015, 1.31842
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.32612, 1.3280
What it said to watch
Rejection at prior highs near 1.3250 keeps the 1.3200–1.3261 range intact
H1 close above the 1.3261 week high exposes the 1.3280 range top
Loss of the weekly open at 1.3225 and the rising trendline from Monday's low returns focus to the 1.3202 Monday low and last week's 1.3184 prior low
US ADP today 12:15 UTC, US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and UK GDP Thu 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Cable is still boxed in a 1.3184–1.3261 range. Monday's pre-London push to the 1.3261 week high reversed during NY hours as oil-driven USD demand dragged price to 1.3202, the Monday low near the 1.3200 floor. Tuesday's Asia-to-London recovery has printed rising lows back above the weekly open and EMA(20), retracing about 62% of Monday's drop (Monday drop fib) with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s, helped by the BRC retail beat and a softer dollar.
Support: 1.32253, 1.32015, 1.31842
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.32612
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3250 Friday high exposes the 1.3261 week high and the range top
A break of Tuesday's rising lows and a close back below the 1.3225 weekly open would put the 1.3202 Monday low back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3184 Thursday low (thu low) would mark a break of the multi-session floor
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and UK GDP Thu 06:00 UTC are the main range-break risks
Higher lows off 1.3202 inside a 1.3184–1.3261 range, testing 61.8% fib.
Cable has rotated inside a 1.3184–1.3261 band across the window. Monday's push to the 1.3261 week high met rejection and was sold back to the 1.3202 Monday low during the London session as Brent above $107 lifted the dollar. Rising lows since then carried price through Tuesday's Asian session back above the ema20 and EMA(50), both near 1.3224. Price is now pressing the 61.8% fib of Monday's drop near 1.3238, with RSI(14) at 63.
Support: 1.3224, 1.3202, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3238, 1.3250, 1.3261
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.3238 opens the 1.3250 prior highs and the 1.3261 week high
Loss of the rising lows and a close back below ema20 at 1.3224 would put the 1.3202 Monday low back in play
A break of the Monday low exposes the 1.3184 thursday low and the multi-session 1.3200 floor
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC and UK GDP Thu 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:02 UTC
Sideways, recovering off range floor · RSI 56 · price 1.32338
1.3184–1.3261 range; flat-to-rising lows, lower high today.
Monday's London-open push to the 1.3261 week high failed just above Friday's 1.3250 prior high. Price unwound to a 1.3202 monday low during NY hours as oil and the DXY firmed, a false break inside the 1.3184–1.3261 range. Asia and early London today recovered on the BRC sales beat and Greene's hawkish remarks, lifting price back above the ema20 (~1.3220) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 56, but the 1.3238 session high stalled at the 61.8% fib of Monday's drop, a lower high under the rising lows from the 1.3184 swing low.
Support: 1.3220, 1.32015, 1.31842
Resistance: 1.32384, 1.3250, 1.32612
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3250 prior high, then the 1.3261 week high, would break the lower-highs sequence and the range top
Failure at the 1.3238 session high and loss of the ema20 near 1.3220 would put the 1.3202 monday low and the 1.3200 floor back in focus
A break of the 1.3200 floor exposes the 1.3184 swing low and the rising lows line
BoE Pill (Wed 06:00 UTC) and US September CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Range-bound, recovering off the 1.3200 area · RSI 59 · price 1.32296
1.3184–1.3261 range since Thursday; Monday false break above 1.3250, Asia higher lows today.
GBPUSD has held a 1.3184–1.3261 range since Thursday. Monday's pre-London push to the 1.3261 week high was a false break: it reversed through the NY session to a 1.3202 monday low as DXY hit its highest since April 2025 on firmer oil. Asia higher lows have since lifted price back above ema20 (~1.3220) to the 50% retracement of Monday's drop near 1.3231, just under ema50, with RSI(14) back to ~59. Friday's 1.3250 prior high caps the topside, while demand has stepped in near 1.3200 each session, with Thursday's 1.3184 swing low the only dip beneath it.
Support: 1.3220, 1.32015, 1.31842
Resistance: 1.3233, 1.3250, 1.32612
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3202 monday low breaks the asia higher lows sequence and exposes the 1.3184 swing low
Acceptance above ema50 and the 1.3250 prior high reopens the 1.3261 week high and the 1.3280 cap
Rejection at the 50% retracement of Monday's drop keeps the range-bound read intact
Waller today 07:45 UTC, US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and UK GDP Thu 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Range-bound, rebuilding off the 1.3200 floor · RSI 56 · price 1.32261
1.3184–1.3261 range since Thursday, rising lows into the range floor.
Monday's pre-London push to the week high at 1.3261 was rejected as oil and a DXY at multi-month highs lifted the USD. The decline extended into the NY session down to 1.3202, where buyers again defended the range floor. Asia today has rebuilt to the weekly open at 1.3225, back above EMA(20) (~1.3220) and a flat EMA(50) (~1.3223). Price is reclaiming the 38.2% fib of Monday's drop, with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s and the prior close at 1.3235 overhead.
Support: 1.3225, 1.3202, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3235, 1.3261
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3200 range floor and the rising lows line ends the range read and exposes Thursday's 1.3184 swing low
Acceptance above the prior close at 1.3235 and the fib 50% at 1.3231 reopens the week high at 1.3261
Failure to hold the weekly open at 1.3225 turns the Asia rebound into another lower test of 1.3200
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
GBPUSD has held a 1.3184–1.3261 range across the window. Monday's pre-London push to a 1.3261 week high turned into a false break above the Wed/Fri highs, and a firm USD (DXY at its highest since April 2025, Brent above $107) drove a sell-off through London and NY to a 1.3202 week low. Asia buyers defended the 1.3200 floor again on Tuesday, after the BRC beat and Greene's hawkish remarks. The bounce has stalled near the 23.6% retrace of Monday's sell-off, just under ema20, with RSI(14) at 46 and price below both averages.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3218, 1.3225, 1.3261
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3202 week low and 1.3200 floor would break the higher lows off Thursday's 1.3184 swing low and confirm a range breakdown
Recovery above ema20 and the 1.3225 week open, which sits at the 38.2% retrace of Monday's sell-off, reopens the 1.3261 week high
Waller today 07:45 UTC, US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and UK GDP Thu 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Range-bound, modest rebound from range floor · RSI 47 · price 1.32203
1.3184–1.3261 range; Monday false break above 1.3250 range top, lows rising since Thursday.
Monday's pre-London push from the 1.3225 weekly open cleared the 1.3250 range top set Thursday and Friday, but the week high at 1.3261 failed. Price then unwound about 60 pips through London into NY as Brent topped $107 and DXY hit its highest since April 2025, bottoming at the 1.3202 monday low. In Asia, the BRC beat and Greene's hawkish remarks lifted the pair back to about 1.3220, just above the ema20 but still below EMA(50) and the weekly open. RSI(14) sits near 47, and the rising lows from the 1.3184 thursday low remain intact.
Support: 1.3218, 1.3202, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3225, 1.3250, 1.3261
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3202 monday low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.3184 thursday low
Reclaiming the 1.3225 weekly open, which sits near the 38.2% fib of Monday's drop, puts the 1.3250 range top and 1.3261 week high back in view
Failure to hold the ema20 at 1.3218 keeps the rebound shallow within the range
Fed's Waller today 07:45 UTC and US Sep CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; UK Aug GDP Thu 06:00 UTC is the next GBP-side test
1.3184–1.3261 range with rising lows since Thursday.
Cable has held a 1.3184–1.3261 range since Thursday's London low. Monday's pre-London push through prior highs near 1.3250 to a 1.3261 week high reversed into the NY session, as oil-driven USD demand lifted the Dollar Index to its highest since April 2025, yet the 1.3200 range floor held again on the rising-lows line from Thursday. An Asia session lift on the BRC sales beat has price near the 50% retracement of the Thursday–Monday advance, just above EMA(20) at 1.3218 but under the ema50 near 1.3225, with RSI(14) flat at 50.
Support: 1.3200, 1.31842
Resistance: 1.3225, 1.3250, 1.32612
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.3200 range floor would break the rising-lows line and expose the 1.3184 week low
Acceptance above the ema50 at 1.3225 and prior highs near 1.3250 reopens the 1.3261 week high
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the main USD catalyst for a range break; Fed Waller today 07:45 UTC and BoE Greene could shift the read earlier
1.3184–1.3261 range since Thursday; range floor near 1.3200 holding, price pinned at EMA20.
Cable has rotated inside a 1.3184–1.3261 band since Thursday. London has mostly set the extremes and NY has faded them. Monday's pre-London push to the 1.3261 week high met rejection as an oil-driven USD bid dragged the pair to the 1.3202 Monday low during NY hours, near the 78.6% level of the Thursday–Monday upswing; Asia's BRC beat has since lifted it back to EMA20 around 1.3218, still under the 1.3225 weekly open and EMA50.
Support: 1.32015, 1.31842
Resistance: 1.32253, 1.32612
What it said to watch
H1 close below the range floor at 1.3200 exposes the 1.3184 week low
Reclaim of the 1.3225 weekly open and EMA50 shifts focus back to the 1.3261 week high
BoE Greene at 03:00 UTC and Fed Waller at 07:45 UTC could move the range edges
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC and UK GDP Thu 06:00 UTC are the main range-break risks
1.3184–1.3261 range; Monday high rejected, compressing at week low.
GBPUSD has spent four sessions boxed in a 1.3184–1.3261 range, with the oil-driven USD bid capping each push higher. Monday's pre-London spike to the 1.3261 week high was rejected. The pair then unwound through London and NY to the 1.3202 week low, just above the 1.3200 floor. Since then it has compressed in a 7-pip band below the ema20 (1.3217) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 41. The weekly open at 1.3225 sits close to the 38.2% retracement of Monday's drop and is the first marker above the ema20.
Support: 1.3202, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3217, 1.3225, 1.3261
What it said to watch
H1 close below 1.3200 breaks the week low and exposes Thursday's prior low at 1.3184.
A recovery through the weekly open at 1.3225 and the Monday lower highs trendline would neutralise Monday's rejection.
US Sep CPI on Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2%) is the main catalyst for a break of the range.
BoE's Greene (Tue 03:00 UTC) and Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift the intraday tone before CPI.
1.3184–1.3261 range; lower highs off the 1.3261 week high, compressing just above the 1.3200 floor.
Monday's Asia-session push to the 1.3261 week high met rejection before London. Price then slid back through the weekly open at 1.3225 as an oil-driven USD bid lifted DXY to YTD highs. The NY session drove the leg to the 1.3202 week low, completing the Monday drop. Since then the pair has compressed in a 1.3203–1.3211 band below EMA(20) at 1.3217, with RSI(14) near 38. The 1.3200 area has held as a floor across the window; Thursday's London dip to the 1.3184 prior low was the only extension beneath it.
Support: 1.32015, 1.31842
Resistance: 1.3217, 1.32253, 1.32612
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3202 week low and 1.3200 floor would end the floor read and expose the 1.3184 prior low
Reclaim of ema20 and the 1.3225 weekly open (near the 38.2% of the Monday drop) would break the lower highs sequence
Greene (Tue 03:00 UTC) and Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) are early-week risks; US Sep CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
A move back toward the 1.3261 week high would put the range top back in play