Three-week 1.3180–1.3310 range with lower highs; floor briefly broken on CPI.
Cable has held a 1.3180–1.3310 range for three weeks, with each rally peaking lower: the 1.3311 range high, then 1.3286, then the 1.3275 swing high. The hot US core CPI beat (0.3% vs 0.2%) drove price through the range floor to a 1.3137 cpi low. The latest bar closed back at 1.3193, just above the floor and at the 38.2% retracement. ATR(14) has expanded from roughly 15 pips to about 26 pips, and price sits below both EMA20 and EMA50, which are flat and intertwined.
Support: 1.3180, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3206, 1.3275, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.3180 range floor would confirm the break and expose the 1.3137 cpi low
Recovery through the fib 50% at 1.3206 (prior range lows) would turn the CPI spike into a false break and restore the range
Lower-highs trendline near the 1.3275 swing high caps the range; a close above it, then the 1.3311 range high, would break the descending sequence
UK GDP (Thu 06:00 UTC) and US PPI/retail sales (Thu 12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read, with BoE Bailey on Friday
17:01 UTC
Downtrend resuming after multi-week range · RSI 31 · price 1.31504
Range break below 1.3181 floor after a sequence of lower highs.
Cable held a 1.3181–1.3311 range for nearly three weeks. Inside it the highs stepped lower, from the 1.3311 range top to 1.3286 and then the 1.3275 lower high. The last two bars broke through the range floor on the hot US core CPI print and Fed hike repricing, leaving a swing low at 1.3137. Price is now below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), and ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 24 pips out of a compressed regime, which fits a genuine range break rather than a wick through support.
Support: 1.31367, 1.3100
Resistance: 1.3181, 1.3275, 1.3311
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 1.3181 range floor would turn the break into a false break and restore the range read
Failure to hold the 1.3137 swing low exposes the 1.3100 round number
A recovery through the 1.3275 lower high and the descending lower-highs line would undo the bearish structure
UK GDP/IP (Thu 06:00 UTC) and US Retail Sales/PPI (Thu 12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
BoE Governor Bailey (Fri 02:00 UTC) is a further high-impact risk for GBP pricing
Three-week 1.3181-1.3285 range; higher low at 1.3202, price pressing range top.
Cable has held a 1.3181-1.3285 range since early October. The range floor drew demand three times, and the 1.3202 higher low lifted price through the lower-high line from the 1.3311 prior high, back into the 1.3275-1.3285 range top. ATR(14) has compressed to under 20 pips from 50-pip-plus bars late last month, a coiled setup. The hot US core CPI print (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) is the immediate test of whether supply caps the range top again.
Support: 1.3238, 1.3202, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3285, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H4 close above 1.3285 range top breaks the three-week range and exposes the 1.3311 prior high
Rejection at the range top and a slide through the 1.3238 fib 50% would put the 1.3202 higher low back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3202 higher low returns focus to the 1.3181 range floor
USD follow-through on the hot core CPI, plus Bowman and the Beige Book later today, could materially shift this read
UK Aug GDP Thu 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) and US PPI/retail sales Thu 12:30 GMT are next-session risks for the range edges
01:02 UTC
Range-bound after September decline, lower highs compressing · RSI 59 · price 1.32549
Lower highs (1.3311, 1.3286, 1.3261) against a flat 1.3181-1.3202 floor.
Cable has been boxed in a 1.3181-1.3311 range since the late-September decline. A sequence of lower highs at 1.3311, 1.3286 and 1.3261 is compressing price against a flat floor that has held repeatedly. Price is now pressing the lower-high trendline and the 61.8% retracement of the 1.3311-1.3181 swing near 1.3261, holding above the ema20 as USD eases off its highs into CPI. ATR(14) near 19 pips is well below the 50-90 pip bars of the mid-September leg, a compression that typically precedes a range break.
Support: 1.3238, 1.3202, 1.3181
Resistance: 1.3261, 1.3286, 1.3311
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3261 lower high breaks the trendline sequence and exposes the 1.3286 prior high, then the 1.3311 range top
Slip back below the ema20 near 1.3238 returns focus to the 1.3202 swing low
Close below the 1.3181 range floor ends the three-week box
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
UK Aug GDP Thu 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) adds GBP-side event risk