HH/HL chain off 1.3137 low, pushing through 1.3200 in early Asia.
Cable has retraced about 59% of the hot US CPI drop from 1.3271 to 1.3137. It pushed through the 1.3200 round number in thin early Asia trade, with RSI(14) near 76. Price is now pressing the 61.8% fib at 1.3220, with the rising trendline off the 1.3139 higher low and the late NY low at 1.3182 underneath.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3182, 1.3139
Resistance: 1.3220, 1.3257
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3200 round number undercuts the breakout and exposes the late NY low at 1.3182
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 1.3220 opens the pre-cpi base near 1.3257
Break of the rising trendline, then the 1.3139 higher low, would end the recovery structure
BoE Pill (03:40 UTC) and UK GDP (06:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off 1.3137 low, testing the 50% retrace.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the London range down through the 1.3256 London low and drove cable to a 1.3137 CPI low. Since NY close the pair has printed higher lows along the recovery line, now pressing the 1.3200 round number at the 50% retrace just under the 1.3207 session high in early Asia, with RSI(14) ~66 and not stretched.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3182, 1.31367
Resistance: 1.32071, 1.3220, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3200 round number and the 1.3182 rollover low breaks the recovery line and the higher-low chain
Close above the 1.3207 session high and the 61.8% fib at 1.3220 opens the 1.3256 London low
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK Aug GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US Retail Sales/PPI cluster at 12:30 UTC; the CPI low at 1.3137 is the reference if USD strength resumes
HH/HL chain off 1.3137 CPI low, now above prior high.
Cable has retraced about half of the hot US CPI drop from 1.3271 to 1.3137. Early Asia session pushed through the 1.3196 prior high to a 1.3207 session high, with the rising trendline of higher lows near 1.3192 and RSI(14) at 71.
Support: 1.3196, 1.3182
Resistance: 1.3207, 1.3220, 1.3257
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.3196 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.3182 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 61.8% fib at 1.3220 exposes the 1.3257 london low, the pre-CPI range floor
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the 1.3137 CPI low, pressing the 50% retrace.
Hot US CPI flushed cable 135 pips to the 1.3137 cpi low. Price has since built a higher-low chain and pushed through the 1.3200 psych level into early Asia, now at the 50% retrace of the drop. RSI(14) is near 70 as the bounce approaches the 61.8% fib at 1.3219, which also marks the first post-CPI bounce high.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3182, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3219, 1.3257
What it said to watch
Pill speech at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) could materially shift this read
Rejection at the 1.3219 61.8% fib keeps the move a retrace of the CPI drop; a close above opens the 1.3257 london low
Failure to hold the 1.3200 psych and the 1.3182 rollover low breaks the higher-low trendline
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC are the next USD-side risk
Higher-low chain off the 1.3137 CPI low, price at the 50% retracement.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked cable out of its 1.3257–1.3271 London range, with the London low giving way. Price fell to a 1.3137 CPI low, where a double bottom formed during NY hours. A higher-low chain has since retraced about 46% of that drop. Price is now pressing the 50% fib near 1.3205 and sitting on the EMA50 into a thin Asia open.
Support: 1.3182, 1.3163, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3205, 1.3220, 1.3257
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 1.3205 opens the 61.8% fib near 1.3220
Failure to hold the 1.3182 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.3163 higher low
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off 1.3137 double bottom, capped near 38.2% fib.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked cable ~135 pips from 1.3271 to a 1.3137 cpi low in the NY session, briefly through the 1.3170 range floor. A double bottom near 1.3137/1.3139 has since produced a higher-low recovery to the 38.2% fib around 1.3190. Price is now consolidating in thin late-session trade just under the 1.3196 session high and EMA50, with ATR(14) back to ~7 pips.
Support: 1.3182, 1.3176, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.31955, 1.3204, 1.3220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3196 session high and EMA50 opens the 50% fib at 1.3204, then the 61.8% fib near 1.3220
Break below the 1.3182 late low and the recovery trendline exposes the 1.3176 swing low
Loss of 1.3176 shifts the read back toward the 1.3137 cpi low
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC are the next USD-side risk
Double low at 1.3137, higher-low recovery to 38.2% fib.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked cable from 1.3271 through the 1.3170 range floor to a 1.3137 CPI low, retested at 1.3139 for a double low. A rising trendline of higher lows carried price back to the 38.2% fib of the CPI leg, where it now sits at the open of the Asia session. The 1.31955 bounce high and EMA50 just above cap it, with the 1.3182 swing low underneath.
Support: 1.3182, 1.3170, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.31955, 1.3204, 1.3220
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.31955 bounce high exposes the 50% fib at 1.3204, then the 61.8% fib near 1.3220
A break of the 1.3182 swing low and rising trendline returns focus to the 1.3170 range floor
Failure to hold the range floor reopens the 1.3137 CPI low
BoE Pill speech at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) could materially shift this read
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the 1.3250–1.3275 Asia/London range, and cable slid to a 1.3137 cpi low by mid-NY. A double bottom at 1.3137–1.3139 then started a higher-low recovery that stalled at the 1.3196 ny high. Price is now consolidating just under the 38.2% fib into the Asia open, with the late-ny low at 1.3182 holding.
Support: 1.3182, 1.3176, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3188, 1.3196, 1.3204
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3176 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the 1.3137 cpi low back in focus
Close above the 1.3196 ny high exposes the 50% fib at 1.3204 and the 1.3200 handle
Repeated failure at the 38.2% fib with a loss of the late-ny low at 1.3182 would turn the consolidation into a bear flag read
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) could materially shift this read
Digest's 1.3170 range floor sits just below the swing low and was breached intraday before price recovered above it
Higher-low chain off 1.3137 low, capped near 1.3195.
Hotter US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked cable out of its London range near 1.3257, and NY hours carried it to a 1.3137 cpi low. The late-NY rebound is a slow higher-low chain, with a rejection at the 1.3195 bounce high just under the 50% fib of the CPI drop. RSI(14) sits near 60 and price is above EMA20 but below EMA50 as liquidity thins into the Asia session.
Support: 1.3182, 1.3170, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3195, 1.3204
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3195 bounce high and the 1.3204 50% fib extends the retracement of the CPI drop
Loss of the 1.3182 higher low breaks the rising trendline and puts the 1.3170 range floor in focus, with the 1.3137 cpi low below
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3137, compressing under 38.2% fib.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke cable out of the Asia/London range and drove a 135-pip CPI selloff from 1.3271 to a 1.3137 CPI low by 15:00. The NY rebound printed higher lows into a 1.3196 rebound high but is stalling around the 38.2% fib at 1.3188. Price is now compressing in a thin late-NY range between 1.3182 and 1.3196.
Support: 1.3182, 1.3176, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3196, 1.3204, 1.3220
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3196 rebound high opens the 50% fib at 1.3204, then the 61.8% fib near 1.3220
Loss of the late-NY low at 1.3182 and the 1.3176 swing low breaks the higher-low chain, leaving the 1.3137 CPI low exposed
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC Thursday are the next USD driver
Higher lows off 1.3137 CPI low, capped near 38.2% retrace.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked cable about 135 pips, from 1.3271 to the 1.3137 cpi low, during NY hours. The late-NY bounce built higher lows but met rejection at the 1.3196 session high, near the 38.2% retracement of the CPI drop. Price has now slipped below the recovery line in thin rollover trade, and the 1.3182 higher low is the nearest test.
Support: 1.3182, 1.3176, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3196, 1.3204
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3196 session high opens the 50% fib at 1.3204
Failure to hold the 1.3176 swing low breaks the higher-low chain off the cpi low
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) could materially shift this read
134-pip CPI drop, then higher-low recovery now flat at the 38.2% fib.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the London range near 1.3257 and dropped cable to a 1.3137 cpi low. A double bottom near 1.3137–1.3139 then fed a higher-low grind to a late ny high at 1.3193, and price is now flat into rollover at the 38.2% fib, holding above the ema20 near 1.3183 but capped beneath the ema50 near 1.3200.
Support: 1.3183, 1.3176, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3193, 1.3200
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3200 ema50 and 50% fib (1.3204) extends the CPI retracement
Loss of the 1.3176 swing low exposes the 1.3170 range floor and breaks the higher-low chain
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP/IP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC are the next USD driver
Double bottom at 1.3137 lifted price into the 38.2% fib; higher lows now flattening.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke cable out of its London range and drove a ~135-pip slide to the 1.3137 cpi low. A double bottom there fed a recovery into the NY close, which is now stalling at the bounce high near the 38.2% fib of the cpi drop, with the last closes slipping under the recovery trendline as RSI(14) flattens near 50.
Support: 1.31828, 1.3176, 1.31367
Resistance: 1.31933, 1.32052
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3193 bounce high reopens the 1.3205 cpi bar low, which also sits at the 50% fib
Loss of the 1.3183 higher low, then the 1.3176 swing low, confirms the recovery trendline break and brings the 1.3137 cpi low back into view
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read during Asia and the London open
London range broken lower; higher-low chain off 1.3137 stalling at 38.2% fib.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the 1.3257–1.3271 London range and drove cable about 135 pips to the 1.3137 cpi low by mid-NY. That move dipped briefly below the 1.3170 range floor before reclaiming it. Late NY has stacked higher lows up to a 1.3193 session high, where price is stalling at the 38.2% fib with RSI(14) back near mid-50s.
Support: 1.3183, 1.3170, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3193, 1.3204, 1.3220
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3183 higher low breaks the late-NY higher-low chain and puts the 1.3170 range floor back in play
Close above the 1.3193 session high and the 50% fib at 1.3204 opens the 61.8% fib at 1.3220
Loss of the 1.3137 cpi low turns the 1.3170 false break into a confirmed lower-low
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read in Asia/early London
US PPI, Retail Sales and Claims at 12:30 UTC Thu are the next USD catalyst after the CPI beat
Higher-low chain off 1.3137 cpi low, testing 38.2% fib.
The hot US CPI print broke cable out of its London range in one bar. The pair fell from the 1.3275 Asia high to a 1.3137 cpi low by mid-NY session. Since then a higher-low chain has lifted price about 55 pips into the 38.2% fib at 1.3188 in late NY hours, with the 50% fib at 1.3204 the next cap overhead.
Support: 1.3183, 1.3170, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3204, 1.3220, 1.3275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 50% fib at 1.3204 extends the retracement toward the 61.8% fib at 1.3220
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.3183 higher low ends the recovery leg and exposes the 1.3170 range floor
Failure to hold 1.3170 puts the 1.3137 cpi low back in play
BoE Pill (03:40 UTC) and UK GDP/IP (06:00 UTC) could materially shift this read in the Asia-to-London transition
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke cable out of the Asian/London range (1.3245–1.3275) and drove it about 134 pips to the 1.3137 post-cpi low during NY hours. Since then the pair has built a rising flag of higher lows, with the latest higher low at 1.3176. Into the NY close the rebound high at 1.3191 is stalling at the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) back to neutral near 47.
Support: 1.3176, 1.3163, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3191, 1.3205, 1.3220
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3205 (50% fib) undermines the flag read and puts 1.3220 (61.8% fib) in play
Break of the rebound line and the 1.3176 higher low exposes the 1.3163 swing low, then the 1.3137 post-cpi low, with the 1.3170 range floor in between
BoE Pill (03:40 UTC) and UK GDP (06:00 UTC) could materially shift this read during Asia and London open
Higher lows off 1.3137 double test, capped near 38.2% fib.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked cable 135 pips from 1.3271 to the 1.3137 CPI low. A double test of 1.3137/1.3139 held in NY hours and higher lows carried price to a 1.3191 recovery high, where the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop rejected it. After London close, price is testing the recovery trendline and ema20 near 1.3177, just above the 1.3170 range floor.
Support: 1.3177, 1.3170, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3191, 1.3204
What it said to watch
M15 close below the trendline and 1.3170 range floor breaks the higher-low chain and reopens the 1.3137 CPI low
Close above the 1.3191 recovery high opens the 50% fib at 1.3204
BoE Pill (03:40 UTC) and UK GDP (06:00 UTC) could reset the Asian range, with US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC Thursday
19:31 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, corrective bounce under way · RSI 55 · price 1.31895
Double bottom at 1.3137/1.3139 with higher lows into late NY.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked cable about 135 pips off 1.3271 to a 1.3137 cpi low. A retest at 1.3139 held, and the double bottom has cleared its 1.3156 neckline. The bounce after London close is now pressing the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop at 1.3188, with RSI(14) near 55; price is back above the 1.3170 range floor but still below EMA50.
Support: 1.3176, 1.3156, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.3219
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3200 round number exposes the 50% fib at 1.3204, then the 61.8% fib at 1.3219
Break of the 1.3176 swing low and the rising support line puts the 1.3156 neckline back in play
Loss of the 1.3137 cpi low resumes the post-CPI downtrend
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC could reset the Asian range
Higher lows off 1.3137 double bottom, testing post-CPI high.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked cable from the London range under the 1.3275 Asian high to a 1.3137 session low, briefly breaking the 1.3170 range floor before a second low at 1.3139 held. Late-NY recovery has stacked higher lows along rising support and is now pressing the 1.3185 post-CPI high near the 38.2% retrace, RSI(14) back near 51.
Support: 1.3176, 1.3170, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3185, 1.3204, 1.3275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3185 post-cpi hi opens the 50% fib at 1.3204
Loss of the 1.3176 swing low and rising support puts the 1.3170 range floor back in play
Close back below 1.3137 session low invalidates the double bottom
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3137 session low, pressing 1.3185 bounce high.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked cable about 135 pips off the 1.3271 pre-release high to a 1.3137 session low, undercutting the 1.3170 range floor. Late NY has reclaimed that floor through higher lows at 1.3139 and 1.3163. Price is now testing the 1.3185 bounce high, just under the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop at 1.3188.
Support: 1.3170, 1.3163, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3185, 1.3205
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3185 bounce high and 38.2% fib opens the 50% fib at 1.3205
Loss of the 1.3163 higher low breaks the rising trendline off the 1.3139 low
Return below the 1.3170 range floor negates the false break and brings the 1.3137 session low back into play
BoE Pill (03:40 UTC) and UK GDP (06:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3137 double bottom, testing bounce high.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked cable from 1.3271 to a 1.3137 session low, far below the Asian range and the london low at 1.3257. A higher low at 1.3139 kept rising lows intact through late NY, lifting price back above the 1.3170 range floor to retest the 1.3185 bounce high, near 38.2% of the CPI drop.
Support: 1.3170, 1.3139, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3185, 1.3205, 1.3257
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3185 bounce high and 38.2% opens 1.3205 cpi bar low
Break of rising lows and close back below the 1.3170 range floor shifts focus to the 1.3139 higher low and 1.3137 session low
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC, then UK GDP at 06:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Post-CPI 134-pip leg down, double bottom base, higher lows off 1.3137.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the 1.3257–1.3275 Asian/London range and drove cable to a 1.3137 session low. A double bottom (1.3137/1.3139) has since lifted price back to the 1.3170 range floor after London close, above the 23.6% fib of the CPI drop with the rising trendline intact.
Support: 1.3170, 1.3163, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3185, 1.3205
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3163 swing low breaks the rising trendline and puts the 1.3137 session low back in play
Close above the 1.3185 swing high (38.2% of the CPI drop) opens the 50% fib at 1.3205
Failure to hold the 1.3170 range floor keeps the post-CPI downtrend intact
BoE Pill (03:40 UTC) and UK GDP (06:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; US PPI/retail sales at 12:30 UTC follow
Post-CPI lower highs broken; double bottom at 1.3137 lifting price.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked cable about 135 pips, from the 1.3271 pre-data high to a 1.3137 cpi low, through the London session range floor near 1.3256. Late in the NY session a double bottom at 1.3137/1.3139 broke its 1.3156 neckline and the post-cpi trendline. Price is now stalling at ema20 near 1.3174, the 23.6% level of the post-cpi fib.
Support: 1.3156, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3174, 1.3185, 1.3205
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3185 bounce high opens the path to the 1.3205 lower high
Failure to hold the 1.3156 neckline returns focus to the 1.3137 cpi low
Beige Book now, BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI impulse low at 1.3137, double bottom, retesting broken 1.3170 from below.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the London range near 1.3256. It drove cable roughly 135 pips to 1.3137 during NY hours, through the 1.3170 range floor. A double btm at 1.3137–1.3139 has lifted price back to 1.3170, where the old range floor, the 23.6% fib and EMA20 converge, with RSI(14) recovering to 47.
Support: 1.3156, 1.3138
Resistance: 1.3172, 1.3185, 1.3205
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3172 range floor reclaims the level and opens the 1.3185 bounce high (38.2% fib 1.3188), then the 1.3205 cpi bar low
Rejection at 1.3172 and a loss of the 1.3156 breakout pt put the 1.3138 double btm back in play
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC, then BoE Pill at 03:40 and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
17:46 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY bounce · RSI 41 · price 1.3170
Post-CPI lower highs, higher low at 1.3139, retesting broken floor.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked cable about 65 pips in one bar from the 1.3271 pre-print high. The selloff extended to a 1.3137 session low, below the 1.3170 range floor. After London close a higher low at 1.3139 and a push through the 1.3156 prior cap have price retesting 1.3170 from beneath, with ema20 at 1.3175 and RSI(14) back to ~41, sitting at the 23.6% of the CPI leg fib.
Support: 1.3156, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3170, 1.3175, 1.3185
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.3170 range floor / 1.3175 ema20 keeps the retest read intact
M15 close above the 1.3185 swing high breaks the post-CPI lower-high sequence and opens 1.3205
Loss of the 1.3156 prior cap exposes the 1.3137 session low
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
BoE Pill (03:40 UTC) and UK GDP (06:00 UTC) overnight are the next GBP risk
Post-CPI lower lows; double bottom at 1.3137/1.3139, neckline 1.3156 under test.
A hotter US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke cable out of the Asia/London range, which had topped at 1.3275, and dropped it through the 1.3170 range floor to a 1.3137 day low by 15:00. Late in the NY session price has formed a double bottom at 1.3137/1.3139 and is pressing the 1.3156 neckline. RSI(14) is recovering toward 35, while price stays below EMA20 near 1.3174.
Support: 1.3156, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3170, 1.3185
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3170 range floor, where EMA20 and the 23.6% fib also sit, would mark a reclaim; rejection there keeps the CPI downtrend intact
The double bottom needs price to hold above the 1.3156 neckline; a break of the 1.3137 day low resumes the lower-low sequence
The 1.3185 swing high caps the bounce structure; a close above it brings the 38.2% fib at 1.3188 into view
The Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read; BoE Pill speaks at 03:40 UTC overnight
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC took cable from the 1.3271 pre-print high through the 1.3170 range floor to a 1.3137 post-cpi low during NY hours. After London close, price is building a tight 1.3137–1.3156 consolidation with a marginal higher low at 1.3139. RSI(14) is recovering toward 32 from oversold, and price is pressing the bounce high.
Support: 1.3139, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3156, 1.3170, 1.3185
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3156 bounce high breaks the consolidation and brings the 1.3170 range floor back in as resistance
Reclaiming the 1.3185 lower high, near the 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop, breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure at the 1.3139 higher low and a break of the 1.3137 post-cpi low resumes the lower-low chain
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read; BoE Pill (03:40 UTC) and UK GDP (06:00 UTC) follow Thursday
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI drop now consolidating · RSI 33 · price 1.31529
Lower highs and lower lows since 12:30 UTC; tight base above CPI low.
Cable printed a session high near 1.3275 in Asia, then the hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked it about 135 pips to the 1.3137 CPI low during NY hours, taking out the 1.3170 range floor. The last hour has compressed between 1.3139 and the 1.3156 minor cap, under the post-CPI lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) near 33 and the bounce barely 15% of the move on the fib.
Support: 1.3137, 1.3100
Resistance: 1.3156, 1.3170, 1.3185
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3170 range floor and the lower-high trendline turns the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3137 CPI low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3100 round number
Reclaiming the 1.3185 swing high puts the 38.2% fib near 1.3188 in play
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC Thursday are the next GBP-side risks
Post-CPI impulse lower, now compressing near the session low.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC flipped the day. Cable dropped about 135 pips in the CPI leg, from the 1.3271 pre-release high to a 1.3137 CPI low, slicing through the 1.3170 range floor after the Asian push to 1.3275. Since London close, price has compressed in a 1.3137–1.3156 band below the 1.3156 bounce high and the 1.3185 lower high, with RSI(14) near 20 oversold.
Support: 1.31367, 1.3100
Resistance: 1.31561, 1.3170, 1.31851
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3156 bounce high and back over the 1.3170 range floor (23.6% of the CPI leg fib) would mark the selloff as stalled.
A rejection at the 1.3170 range floor or the 1.3185 lower high keeps the lower-high sequence intact.
Break below the 1.3137 CPI low extends the lower lows toward the 1.3100 round number.
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read.
BoE Pill (03:40 UTC) and UK GDP (06:00 UTC) on Thursday are the next GBP-side risk.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked cable 135 pips off the 1.3271 pre-release high, slicing through the 1.3170 range floor to a 1.3137 CPI low during NY hours. Price is now boxed between the 1.3144 minor low and the 1.3156 bounce high into London close. RSI(14) is near 25 and the bounce has retraced barely 15% of the CPI drop.
Support: 1.31439, 1.31367
Resistance: 1.31561, 1.3170, 1.31851
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3137 CPI low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.3156 bounce high, then 1.3170, puts the broken range floor back in play as a retest
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Rejection below the 1.3185 swing high (38.2% of the CPI drop) keeps the lower-high structure intact
Lower highs and lower lows since 12:30 UTC; tight base above the session low.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the Asian and London ranges, with a 135-pip CPI drop from 1.3271 through the 1.3170 range floor to a 1.3137 session low. Lower highs at 1.3185 and the 1.3156 bounce high keep the chain intact. Price is stalling near 1.3150 after London close, with RSI(14) at about 25.
Support: 1.3137, 1.3100
Resistance: 1.3156, 1.3170, 1.3185
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3170 range floor would undercut the range break read
A break of the 1.3137 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3100 round number
A reclaim of the 1.3185 lower high would place price inside the 38.2% retrace zone of the CPI drop
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could reignite USD moves
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC set up overnight event risk
16:01 UTC
Downtrend after US CPI, momentum stalling · RSI 25 · price 1.31509
Lower highs and lower lows since 12:30 UTC; Asian range and 1.3170 range floor broken below.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC reversed the Asia-session high near 1.3275. Cable fell about 135 pips to a 1.3137 session low, cutting through the Asian range and the 1.3170 range floor. Into the London-NY transition, price is drifting under the CPI downtrend line with the 1.3155 bounce high capping, RSI(14) near 25.
Support: 1.3137, 1.3100
Resistance: 1.3155, 1.3170, 1.3185
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3155 bounce high and the CPI downtrend line would break the lower-high chain
Reclaiming the 1.3170 range floor would turn the break into a false break; above that sits the 1.3185 lower high near the 38.2% of the CPI drop fib
Failure to hold the 1.3137 session low leaves the 1.3100 round number as the next reference
The Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC on Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the 12:30 UTC CPI bar, below the Asian and London ranges.
The hotter-than-expected US core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the Asian and London ranges (1.3253–1.3275). Cable is down about 135 pips to a 1.3137 session low, through the 1.3170 range floor. Mid-NY, the bounce high at 1.3155 sits under a trendline of lower highs from 1.3219 and the 1.3185 lower high. RSI(14) at 24 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.31367, 1.3100
Resistance: 1.31547, 1.3170, 1.31851
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3170 range floor, where the 23.6% fib of the CPI drop also sits, would recast the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3137 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3100 round number
A reclaim of the 1.3155 bounce high and the lower-high trendline near 1.3185 would end the post-CPI lower-high sequence
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC and UK GDP Thu 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 12:30 UTC, London range broken.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the 1.3256–1.3271 London range and started a ~135-pip CPI drop, with each bounce capped lower: the post-CPI high at 1.3205, then the lower high at 1.3185. Cable is now holding just above the 1.3137 session low and below the 1.3170 range floor flagged in the digest, with RSI(14) near 21 showing a stretched NY session move.
Support: 1.31367, 1.3100
Resistance: 1.31607, 1.31851, 1.32052
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3161 broken low would suggest the break below the range floor is losing traction, with the 1.3185 lower high next
Failure to hold the 1.3137 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3100 round number
A close above the post-CPI high at 1.3205 invalidates the lower highs sequence
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could shift USD tone into the NY close
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, sharp post-CPI leg · RSI 23 · price 1.31587
Lower highs and lower lows since 12:30 UTC; 1.3170 range floor broken.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked cable about 65 pips in one bar from 1.3271. The NY session has since printed lower highs and lower lows through the 1.3170 range floor to a session low at 1.3157. RSI(14) near 23 is deep oversold, and the only bounce stalled at the 1.3185 lower high.
Support: 1.3157, 1.3150
Resistance: 1.3170, 1.3185
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3170 range floor would mark a false break of the floor
Failure to hold the 1.3157 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3150 psych level
A recovery through the 1.3185 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower-highs trendline
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs after CPI break of London range, testing range floor.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the 1.3256–1.3271 London range and drove cable ~110 pips to a 1.3161 session low. The rebound stalled at the 1.3185 bounce high, near the 23.6% level of the CPI drop fib, extending the lower highs. Price is now back on the 1.3170 range floor with RSI(14) near 23.
Support: 1.3170, 1.31607
Resistance: 1.31851, 1.32052
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3161 session low confirms a break of the 1.3170 range floor
Recovery through the 1.3185 bounce high and the 1.3205 lower high breaks the post-CPI lower-highs line
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could reprice Fed hike odds and shift this read
Lower highs/lower lows since 12:30 UTC CPI break of London range.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the 1.3256–1.3271 London range and dropped cable ~110 pips. During NY hours it dipped through the 1.3170 range floor to a 1.3161 post-cpi low. The bounce stalled at the 1.3185 bounce high, just under the 23.6% fib of the CPI drop, with the lower-highs line intact and RSI(14) near 25.
Support: 1.3170, 1.3161
Resistance: 1.3185, 1.3205, 1.3219
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3161 post-cpi low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the range floor
Recovery above the 1.3185 bounce high breaks the lower-highs line; above the 1.3205 cpi bar low and the 1.3219 lower high, the impulse read weakens
Holding 1.3170 on closes keeps the range floor in play as intraday support
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT knocked cable ~110 pips from the 1.3271 pre-CPI high, slicing through the London low at 1.3256 and printing a 1.3161 session low in early NY hours, with lower highs at 1.3219 and the 1.3205 bounce high since. Price is now sitting on the 1.3170 range floor with RSI(14) near 20 and ATR(14) expanded to ~11 pips.
Support: 1.3170, 1.3161
Resistance: 1.3205, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3161 session low confirms a break of the 1.3170 range floor
Recovery above the 1.3205 bounce high (near the 38.2% of the CPI drop) breaks the lower-highs line
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT ended the London range (1.3257–1.3271) and pushed a ~105-pip drop through the 1.3170 range floor to a session low at 1.3165. The only bounce stalled at the 1.3205 bounce high, the 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop, leaving a lower high. RSI(14) near 15 is deeply oversold.
Support: 1.31646, 1.3150
Resistance: 1.3170, 1.31843, 1.32052
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3170 range floor would mark the break as a false break
Rejection at the 1.3184 prior low or the 1.3205 bounce high keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Failure to hold the 1.3165 session low exposes the 1.3150 round number
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or unwind the CPI move
London range broken lower on CPI; lower highs below 1.3205.
Cable spent Asia and London inside a 1.3257–1.3275 band, with the asian high at 1.3275 capping. The hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the london low in a single bar, and price fell about 85 pips to a cpi low of 1.3184 in the first hour of NY. RSI(14) is near 18, and the only bounce stalled at 1.3205, the 23.6% fib of the CPI drop.
Support: 1.3184, 1.3170
Resistance: 1.3205, 1.3257, 1.3275
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3184 cpi low exposes the 1.3170 range floor that has held since Sep 24
M15 close back above the 1.3205 23.6% fib opens the 38.2% retracement near 1.3218
Recovery above the 1.3257 london low would negate the CPI breakdown
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or fade the CPI move
13:46 UTC
Sharp downtrend after the CPI impulse · RSI 26 · price 1.31976
Range break lower, basing just under 1.3200.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 GMT broke the 1.3256–1.3275 range that held through Asia and London, cutting ~87 pips to a 1.3184 CPI low. Price is now pinned just under the 1.3200 psych level with RSI(14) near 26; the London low at 1.3256 marks the base of the broken range.
Support: 1.31843, 1.3170
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.3218, 1.32564
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 1.3200 psych level, followed by a push into the 38.2% fib at 1.3218, would mark a corrective bounce from the CPI low
A break below the 1.3184 CPI low exposes the 1.3170 range low
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or fade the CPI move during NY hours
The 1.3256 London low now marks the top of the broken range; trade back above it would negate the range break
13:31 UTC
Sharp downtrend after US CPI · RSI 15 · price 1.31946
Range break lower, first pause above cpi low.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke GBPUSD out of the 1.3238–1.3275 prior-day range in one bar. Price fell to the cpi low at 1.3186 early in the NY session and is now sitting just under the 1.3200 round number. RSI(14) near 15 is deeply oversold, and the 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop sits around 1.3218.
Support: 1.31857, 1.3170
Resistance: 1.3200, 1.32382
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3200 round number would mark the first reclaim after the break
Failure to hold the 1.3186 cpi low exposes the 1.3170 range low
Return toward the 1.3238 prior low would retrace most of the CPI drop
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or fade the CPI move
13:16 UTC
Sharp downtrend after the CPI print, deeply oversold · RSI 24 · price 1.32013
Range break lower from the 1.3256–1.3275 Asian/London range, now testing the 1.3200 floor.
A hot US core CPI print (0.3% m/m vs 0.2% forecast) knocked GBPUSD about 70 pips out of its 1.3256–1.3275 Asian/London range in a single bar. Early NY trade is probing the 1.3200 round number with RSI(14) near 24. The cpi bar high at 1.3219 has capped the first bounce, and the CPI drop fib 50% level sits on the 1.3238 prior low.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3170
Resistance: 1.3219, 1.3238, 1.3256
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes below the 1.3200 round number expose the 1.3170 range low
Recovery above the 1.3219 cpi bar high, then the 1.3238 prior low (CPI drop fib 50%), would mark a retracement of the CPI leg
A reclaim of the 1.3256 london low puts price back inside the prior range and negates the range break
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or fade the post-CPI move
Impulsive break below the 24h range low at 1.3238; stalling just above the 1.3200 range floor.
Hot US core CPI (0.3% m/m vs 0.2% f/c) drove a 65-pip bar at 12:30 GMT. It cut through the London low at 1.3257 and the prior low at 1.3238, and stalled at the 1.3205 CPI low just above the 1.3200 range floor. RSI(14) near 18 is deeply oversold early in the NY session, with the Asian high at 1.3275 now well overhead.
Support: 1.3205, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3238, 1.3257, 1.3275
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3200 range floor extends the break toward 1.3170.
A recovery through 1.3238 (prior low, near the 50% fib of the CPI drop) would suggest the break is fading.
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or unwind the CPI move.
The 38.2% fib of the CPI drop at 1.3230 is the first retracement marker.
12:46 UTC
Sharp drop on US CPI, short-term oversold · RSI 24 · price 1.32314
CPI bar broke London range and prior-day low.
Cable had already faded from the 1.3275 Asia high and was boxed in a 1.3256–1.3271 London range when the US CPI release bar knocked it about 40 pips to the 1.3231 CPI low, consistent with the USD-rebound scenario. That bar sliced through the 1.3256 London low and yesterday's 1.3238 prior low. RSI(14) at 24 is oversold on the impulse, and ATR(14) has jumped to about 7 pips.
Support: 1.3231, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3238, 1.3256, 1.3275
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3238 prior low would turn the CPI break into a false break
The 61.8% retracement of the CPI drop fib lines up with the 1.3256 London low as the upper reference on any rebound
Failure to hold the 1.3231 CPI low exposes the 1.3200 round number, the digest's range floor
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or unwind the post-CPI move
12:31 UTC
Sideways after Asia rally, lower highs below 1.3275 · RSI 63 · price 1.32687
London range 1.3256–1.3270 inside the upper half of the Asian range.
Cable climbed through Asia to an Asian high at 1.3275, the one-week peak the digest ties to the UK fiscal-funding report. Price was rejected at London open as the USD firmed into CPI and has since held a tight 1.3256–1.3270 London range. Demand stepped in twice near the london low, which sits at the 78.6% fib of the Asia rally. The latest bar is pressing the london high at the London-NY transition, with US CPI due at 12:30 GMT.
Support: 1.3257, 1.3254, 1.3238
Resistance: 1.3270, 1.3275, 1.3280
What it said to watch
US Sept CPI at 12:30 GMT will likely push moves well beyond the 4.6-pip ATR and could materially shift this read
A close above the 1.3275 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline and exposes the 1.3280 range top
A close below the 1.3257 london low exits the range and opens the asian low at 1.3254, then the prior low near 1.3238
Repeated rejection at the 1.3270 london high keeps the range read intact
12:16 UTC
Sideways after London reversal, firming into CPI · RSI 61 · price 1.3267
London range 1.3256–1.3269 below the 1.3275 Asian high, with flat lows and lower highs.
The Asia session rallied to a 1.3275 Asian high on the softer USD after Williams' remarks. The London open rejected that high and drove price to a 1.3256 London low. Since then cable has held a tight 1.3256–1.3269 range, with lower highs off the Asian high trendline, and is now pressing the range top minutes before US CPI.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3254, 1.3238
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3275, 1.3280
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; ATR of about 5 pips is likely to expand sharply
A close above the 1.3269 range top and the 1.3275 Asian high breaks the lower-high trendline and exposes the 1.3280 broad cap
Failure to hold the 1.3256 London low and the 1.3254 Asian low leaves the session range open toward the 1.3238 prior low
12:01 UTC
Sideways after Asian rally, momentum neutral · RSI 49 · price 1.3264
London session range 1.3257–1.3269 below the Asian high.
The Asian rally on a softer USD peaked at 1.3275, the Asian high and a one-week top. London open rejected it and dropped price into a 1.3257–1.3269 range, which has held into late London. Price is mid-range near the 61.8% retracement of that rally, RSI(14) is flat near 49 and the EMAs have flattened ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.3257, 1.3254
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3275
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, about 45 minutes out, could materially shift this read; ATR is only about 5 pips
M15 close above the 1.3269 london high reopens the 1.3275 asian high and the 1.3280 range top
Failure to hold the 1.3257 london low exposes the 1.3254 asian low and the base of the Asian rally
11:46 UTC
Sideways, compressing below Asian high · RSI 51 · price 1.32627
London range 1.3256–1.3269 with lower highs and higher lows, inside the Asian range.
Asia pushed to a 1.3275 Asian high as the dollar eased on Williams' dovish remarks. London opened with a 12-pip drop to the 1.3256 London low. Since then price has coiled between that low and the 1.3269 London high, with a higher low at 1.3259, lower highs from the Asian high and RSI(14) flat near 51 ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.3259, 1.3256, 1.3254
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3275, 1.3280
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) is likely to resolve the compression; ATR near 5 pips understates the event-risk move
M15 close above the 1.3269 London high reopens the 1.3275 Asian high, with the 1.3280 range cap from the digest above that
Loss of the 1.3259 higher low and the 1.3256 London low breaks the London range lower and exposes the 1.3254 Asian low
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 UTC could extend or reverse the post-CPI move during NY hours
11:31 UTC
Flat, coiling below Asian high · RSI 51 · price 1.3263
London range 1.3256–1.3269 inside Asian range, lower highs vs 1.3275.
Cable printed the Asian high at 1.3275 on the dollar's Williams-led dip, then London open knocked it back to 1.3257. London has since held a tight 1.3256–1.3269 box with the London high capping twice and the london low holding twice, sitting near the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib into US CPI.
Support: 1.3257, 1.3253
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3275, 1.3280
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC, about 1h out, could materially shift this read; ATR near 5 pips understates the likely release move
M15 close above the london high at 1.3269 reopens the asian high at 1.3275 and the 1.3280 range cap
Failure to hold the london low at 1.3257 exposes the asian low at 1.3253 and fully retraces the Asia rally fib
11:01 UTC
Intraday range, compressing below Asian high · RSI 53 · price 1.32661
Higher lows since 1.3256 London low, capped at 1.3269.
Asia ran to a one-week asian high at 1.3275 on the broad USD pullback after Williams' dovish comments, then London open knocked price down to a 1.3256 london low. Since then higher lows have compressed price under the 1.3269 london high, which sits near the 61.8% retrace of the London-open drop, with RSI(14) flat at 53 into US CPI.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3256, 1.3254
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3275, 1.3280
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (15:30 broker, under 2h out) is the likely range breaker; core MoM against the 0.2% forecast is the swing figure
M15 close above the 1.3269 london high reopens the 1.3275 asian high and the 1.3280 range cap
Break of the higher lows line near 1.3264 puts the 1.3256 london low and 1.3254 asian low back in play
10:46 UTC
Range-bound, grinding higher off the London low · RSI 52 · price 1.32666
Higher lows since 08:00 UTC beneath a 1.3269 session high, inside the Asian range.
Asia printed a one-week asian high at 1.3275 as the USD eased on Williams' dovish read. The London open knocked price back to a 1.3256 london low, where a double bottom held, and higher lows have since pressed it back against the 1.3269 session high. Price is still inside the 1.3253–1.3275 Asian range, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.32625, 1.32564, 1.32525
Resistance: 1.32689, 1.3275, 1.3280
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, in about 2h, could materially shift this read; core MoM vs 0.2% is the swing factor
M15 close above the 1.3269 session high and the 1.3275 asian high breaks the Asian range and puts the 1.3280 range cap in play
Loss of the 1.3262 higher low and the rising lows trendline undoes the London recovery
Break below the 1.3256 london low and the 1.3253 asian low turns the structure to a lower-low
10:31 UTC
Asian rally stalled, London consolidating · RSI 47 · price 1.32656
Rising lows inside a 1.3256–1.3269 box, below the Asian high.
The USD pullback after Williams' dovish remarks carried cable to a one-week high at the 1.3275 asian high. London open then knocked price back to the 1.3256 london low, a deep retrace of the Asia rally fib. Mid-London, price is compressing beneath the 1.3269 london high on a run of rising lows, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and EMA20/EMA50 flat just under price.
Support: 1.3262, 1.3256, 1.3253
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3275, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3269 london high reopens the 1.3275 asian high, with the 1.3280 range cap beyond it.
A break of the rising lows near 1.3262 that also fails to hold the 1.3256 london low exposes the 1.3253 asia base.
US September CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; Bowman follows at 14:55 GMT.
10:16 UTC
Pullback from Asian high, recovering on higher lows · RSI 46 · price 1.32652
Mid-London consolidation inside the Asian range, below the one-week high.
Cable printed a one-week high at the 1.3275 asian high as the USD correction extended, then the London open knocked it back to the 1.3256 london low. Higher lows since have lifted price to the 61.8% fib near 1.3268, just under the 1.3269 london high, with price sitting on EMA20 ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.3260, 1.3256, 1.3254
Resistance: 1.3269, 1.3275, 1.3280
What it said to watch
US September CPI at 12:30 GMT is the swing factor; core vs 0.2% MoM could break this session range either way
M15 close above the 1.3275 asian high puts the 1.3280 range cap in play
Loss of the 1.3260 higher low breaks the London recovery sequence
Break below the 1.3256 london low and 1.3254 asian low would put price back under the Asian range
10:01 UTC
Intraday pullback, recovering inside Asian range · RSI 48 · price 1.32645
Higher lows since 08:00 UTC, capped below London high.
Asia ran to a one-week high at the 1.3275 Asian high on the softer USD after Williams' remarks, but the London open sold off to the 1.3256 London low, retracing most of the Asian advance. Mid-London, price is building higher lows back toward 1.3265, still under the 1.3269 London high and pinned to EMA20 ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.32564, 1.32535
Resistance: 1.32687, 1.3275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3269 London high reopens the 1.3275 Asian high
Break of the 1.3256 London low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3253 Asian low
US September CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; Bowman again at 14:55 UTC
09:46 UTC
Intraday range, recovering after London-open drop · RSI 51 · price 1.32665
Higher lows since 08:00 UTC pressing the London session high, inside the Asian range.
Asia extended the USD-dip rally to a 1.3275 asian high, but London open saw a rejection to 1.3256 (london low), retracing most of the Asia rally fib. Rising lows have since lifted price back to the 1.3266 london high, with RSI(14) neutral near 51, price just above both EMAs and ATR(14) around 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.3260, 1.3256, 1.3254
Resistance: 1.3266, 1.3275, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3266 london high reopens the 1.3275 asian high and the 1.3280 range cap
Loss of the 1.3260 higher low and the rising lows line breaks the recovery; below 1.3256 london low exposes the 1.3254 asian low
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT is a nearer risk
09:31 UTC
Asia uptrend stalled, London pullback consolidating · RSI 45 · price 1.32637
Lower highs off 1.3275, 1.3256–1.3266 London range.
Cable ground higher through the Asia session to a 1.3275 asian high on the softer-USD tone after Williams' remarks, then the London open knocked it back to a 1.3256 london low. Price is now holding the 50% retrace of the Asia move, boxed between 1.3256 and the 1.3266 london high, with EMA20 just overhead and a series of lower highs off 1.3275.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3253, 1.3242
Resistance: 1.3266, 1.3275, 1.3280
What it said to watch
US September CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; the 1.3280 range cap is the upside reference
M15 close above the 1.3266 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 1.3275 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.3256 london low exposes the 1.3253 asian low, then the 1.3242 spike low from the rollover
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT is a nearer-term USD risk inside the current London range
09:16 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, compressing · RSI 41 · price 1.3261
Lower highs onto a flat 1.3256 base, inside the Asian range.
Asia lifted cable to a 1.3275 session high, a one-week top just under the 1.3280 cap, as Williams' dovish remarks softened the USD. London open rejected that high, and price has held a 1.3256–1.3266 band since, sitting near the 61.8% retrace of the Asian rally. London lower highs are pressing on a flat london low with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs, ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3253, 1.3242
Resistance: 1.3266, 1.3275, 1.3280
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3256 london low exposes the 1.3253 asian low and the 78.6% retrace; the 1.3242 rollover low sits beneath
M15 close above the london lower highs line and the 1.3266 london high reopens the 1.3275 asian high
A test of the 1.3280 cap is the area to watch for another rejection or a break
London compressing 1.3256–1.3266 with lower highs.
Softer USD carried cable to a one-week Asian high at 1.3275 before a rejection under the 1.3280 range cap and a 12-pip drop ahead of London open retraced most of the Asian leg. London is compressing between the 1.3256 London low and the 1.3266 London high with lower highs, retesting yesterday's 1.3259 prior high from above into US CPI.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3254, 1.3239
Resistance: 1.3266, 1.3275, 1.3280
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.3256 london low and 1.3254 asian low puts price back under the prior high and exposes the 1.3239 ny low
Close above the 1.3266 london high breaks the lower highs and reopens the 1.3275 asian high and 1.3280 range cap
US September CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; core 0.2% m/m is the swing figure
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT may jolt the session range
London sold the Asian high; holding 1.3256 floor, lower high at 1.3266.
Asia ran to a one-week high at 1.3275 on softer USD after Williams' dovish remarks, but the London open knocked it back to 1.3257. Price has since held the 1.3256 London low twice. It now sits near the 61.8% of the Asian rally, capped by a lower high at 1.3266, just under EMA20 with ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3253, 1.3242
Resistance: 1.3266, 1.3275, 1.3280
What it said to watch
Close back above the 1.3266 lower high reopens the 1.3275 Asian high and the 1.3280 range cap
Failure to hold the 1.3256 London low exposes the 1.3253 Asian low and the 1.3242 rollover low
US September CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 GMT is a secondary risk
08:31 UTC
Asia uptrend stalled, London pulling back · RSI 41 · price 1.32621
Lower highs since 1.3275 Asian high, holding 1.3256 London low.
The Asia session rallied to a one-week high at the 1.3275 Asian high on post-Williams USD softness. London open rejected it with a 12-pip drop, and buyers have twice defended the 1.3256 london low. Price sits at the 61.8% retrace of the Asia rally fib, below both EMAs, with a lower high at 1.3266.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3253
Resistance: 1.3266, 1.3275, 1.3280
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3256 london low exposes the 1.3253 asian low and the start of the Asia rally
A close above the 1.3266 lower high breaks the London lower highs line and puts the 1.3275 asian high back in play
Untested 1.3280 cap sits just above the Asian high
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, plus Bowman at 09:40, could materially shift this read
Lower high after London open rejection, testing the London low.
The Asia session ran to a one-week high at the 1.3275 asia high on the broad USD correction. London open reversed it with a 12-pip drop, and a lower high followed at 1.3266. Price is back at the 1.3256 london low with roughly 79% of the asia rally fib retraced, sitting below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 1.3256, 1.3251, 1.3238
Resistance: 1.3266, 1.3275, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3251 ny shelf completes the Asia-leg retrace and exposes the 1.3238 ny low
Reclaim of the 1.3266 lower high neutralises the London rejection and puts the 1.3275 asia high back in play
US Sep CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; the 1.3300 range top is only in reach on a soft print
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT is a nearer-term USD risk during London hours
08:01 UTC
Asia uptrend stalled, early London pullback · RSI 41 · price 1.32618
Lower highs from 1.3275 Asian high, London open low 1.3257 holding.
Asia climbed HH/HL from the 1.3254 asian low to a 1.3275 asian high, a one-week high, as the USD correction extended. Since then lower highs have formed. The London open bar dropped 12 pips to a 1.3257 london low before buyers stepped in. Price now sits at the 61.8% retracement of the Asia leg, below EMA20/50, with ATR(14) near 5 pips into US CPI.
Support: 1.32571, 1.32535
Resistance: 1.3266, 1.3275, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3257 london low and 1.3254 asian low marks a full retrace of the Asia leg
A reclaim of the 1.3266 lower high and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.3275 asian high, with the 1.3300 range top above
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Bowman at 09:40 GMT could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Asia uptrend broken at London open, short-term pullback · RSI 41 · price 1.32636
London open broke the Asia trendline and pre-London low, then partly recovered.
A softer USD lifted the pair through Asia to a one-week high, but supply capped it at the 1.3275 Asian high and London open broke the Asia trendline, dropping to a 1.3257 London low near the 78.6% of the Asia rally. Price has recovered to 1.3264, testing the pre-London low from below. It now sits under EMA20 and just above EMA50, with RSI(14) at 41.
Support: 1.3257, 1.3253, 1.3238
Resistance: 1.3264, 1.3275, 1.3300
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 GMT is an earlier risk
An M15 close back above the 1.3264 pre-London low reopens the 1.3275 Asian high, then the 1.3300 range top
Failure to hold the 1.3257 London low and the 1.3253 Asian low exposes the 1.3238 NY low
A move above 1.3275 would put the Asia rally fib and trendline break back in question
07:31 UTC
Asian uptrend reversed at London open · RSI 36 · price 1.32581
London open bar broke the Asian higher-low chain; price back near Asian low.
Asia lifted cable to a session high at 1.3275, a one-week high on the softer USD after Williams. The first London open bar then dropped 12 pips through the 1.3264 breakdown point and the Asian trendline, retracing ~78.6% of the Asian leg to sit just above the asian low at 1.3254, RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.3254, 1.3238, 1.3229
Resistance: 1.3264, 1.3275, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.3254 asian low erases the Asian leg and puts the 1.3238 ny low and 1.3229 prior low in focus
Reclaim of the 1.3264 breakdown level reopens the 1.3275 session high; 1.3300 range top has held since Sept 24
Bowman at 09:40 GMT could shift this read; US CPI at 12:30 GMT, core m/m vs 0.2%, could materially shift it
07:16 UTC
Asian uptrend stalling, shallow pullback at London open · RSI 44 · price 1.32665
Asia HH/HL run from 1.3253 to 1.3275, flat top since 03:00 UTC, now testing 38.2% retrace.
Asia broke above yesterday's prior high at 1.3259 on Williams-driven USD softness and capped at the 1.3275 asian high, a one-week high. London opens with price back at the 38.2% retrace and the 1.3264 pullback low holding. RSI(14) is cooling to the mid-40s on a tight ~4 pip ATR ahead of US CPI.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3259, 1.3253
Resistance: 1.3275, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.3264 pullback low breaks the Asian uptrend line and exposes the 1.3259 prior high
Loss of 1.3253 asian low negates the Asia breakout
Break of 1.3275 asian high puts the 1.3300 range top in play
Bowman 09:40 GMT and US CPI 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 49 · price 1.32714
Asian HH/HL chain intact; London open dip held 50% of Asian leg.
Cable climbed through the Asia session from the 1.3252 asian low to the 1.3275 asian high as the USD correction carried over. London open dipped to a 1.3264 london low on Pill's scepticism over BoE hike pricing, a 50% fib retrace of the Asian leg on the asia trend line, before price recovered to 1.3271. RSI(14) is neutral near 49 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips, with price coiling just under the session high.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3259, 1.3252
Resistance: 1.3275, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3275 asian high breaks the Asian range and opens the 1.3300 range top
Failure to hold the 1.3264 london low and the asia trend line exposes yesterday's NY prior high at 1.3259, then the 1.3252 asian low
US Sep CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
Bowman at 09:40 GMT may jolt USD ahead of CPI
06:31 UTC
Uptrend stalling, first pullback · RSI 45 · price 1.32671
HH/HL chain through Asia capped by flat top at 1.3275; pre-London dip to 1.3264.
Cable climbed through the Asia session on the softer USD, then stalled at a flat top near the 1.3275 asian high, which held for roughly seven bars. Pill's scepticism on BoE hike pricing at 06:00 UTC pulled price to 1.3264, near the 50% retrace of the asian leg fib. Price sits below EMA20 heading into London open.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3259, 1.32535
Resistance: 1.3275, 1.3300
What it said to watch
A close below the pill low at 1.3264 exposes the prior ny high at 1.3259 and the asian low at 1.3254, the 61.8% area of the asian leg
An M15 close above the 1.3275 asian high resumes the HH chain and opens the path to the 1.3300 range top
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could decide the 1.3200–1.3300 range
06:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under Asian high · RSI 56 · price 1.32704
HH/HL chain through Asia; tight 7-pip coil above 1.3268.
Asia extended the USD-led advance off a softer dollar, clearing Tuesday's prior high at 1.3260 and capping at the 1.3275 Asian high. The last ~2.5h have compressed between 1.3268 and 1.3275, with price dipping just under EMA20 ahead of London open and RSI(14) flat near 56.
Support: 1.3268, 1.3260, 1.3253
Resistance: 1.3275, 1.3300
What it said to watch
BoE's Pill at 06:00 UTC lands in the current bar and could break the coil either way
M15 close below the 1.3268 swing low breaks the Asia trendline and exposes the 1.3260 prior high, the 50-61.8% zone of the asian leg fib
Close above the 1.3275 Asian high opens the path to the 1.3300 range top
Loss of the 1.3253 Asian low would erase the full overnight leg
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 1.3275 · RSI 64 · price 1.32725
HH/HL chain through Asia, flat-top consolidation 1.3268–1.3275.
Asia session cleared Tuesday's NY prior high at 1.3259 and climbed from the 1.3253 asia base to a one-week high at the 1.3275 asia high as the USD extended its pullback. For the last ~3 hours price has compressed in a 7-pip box above the 1.3268 swing low, with RSI(14) cooling from the low 70s and ATR(14) near 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3268, 1.3259, 1.3253
Resistance: 1.3275, 1.3300
What it said to watch
BoE's Pill at 06:00 UTC lands on the London open and could break the 1.3268–1.3275 box either way
Close above the 1.3275 asia high opens the 1.3300 range top
Loss of the 1.3268 swing low and the asia trendline exposes a retest of the 1.3259 prior high
US Sep CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below Asian high · RSI 64 · price 1.32729
HH/HL chain from Asia open, now a tight 1.3268–1.3275 shelf.
Cable climbed through the Asia session from the 1.3254 asian low to a 1.3275 asian high on broad USD softness. It has since compressed into a 7-pip shelf above the 1.3268 swing low ahead of London open. RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-60s and ATR is around 3 pips, so the Asian range is narrow.
Support: 1.3268, 1.3254, 1.3238
Resistance: 1.3275, 1.3300
What it said to watch
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC, around London open, could break the 1.3268–1.3275 shelf
An M15 close above the 1.3275 asian high puts the 1.3300 range top in view
Failure to hold the 1.3268 swing low exposes the Asia fib 50% near 1.3264 and then the 1.3254 asian low
US CPI at 12:30 GMT is the main range-breaker; a move back toward the 1.3238 ny low would mark a full reversal of the Asia leg
Asian HH/HL chain stalling in a 7-pip band under the 1.3275 session high.
Asia extended the USD-softness grind, clearing the 1.3260 prior high and printing a 1.3275 session high before compressing into a tight band. Price has slipped under the Asian trendline with RSI(14) easing to ~67, leaving cable at a one-week high just below the 1.3300 range top into London open.
Support: 1.3268, 1.3260, 1.3253
Resistance: 1.3275, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3268 swing low breaks the Asian HH/HL chain and exposes the 1.3260 prior high / 38.2% fib
London-session break of the 1.3275 session high puts the 1.3300 range top in play
Loss of the 1.3253 Asian low (61.8% fib) would unwind the overnight leg
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at Asian high · RSI 68 · price 1.3274
HH/HL chain through Asia, tight 1.3268–1.3275 box on rising trendline.
Cable climbed through the Asia session from 1.3254 to a 1.3275 Asian high as the USD extended its pullback. It has now spent two hours compressing between the 1.3268 pullback low and 1.3275, riding the Asia trendline ahead of London open. RSI(14) near 68 is firm but not stretched, and the prior NY high at 1.3259 is the first broader support below.
Support: 1.3268, 1.3259, 1.3238
Resistance: 1.3275, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the Asia trendline and 1.3268 pullback low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 1.3259 NY high
M15 close above the 1.3275 Asian high puts the 1.3300 range top in play
Failure to hold the 1.3238 NY low would unwind the entire NY-to-Asia advance
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at Asia high · RSI 73 · price 1.32736
HH/HL chain through Asia, tight 1.3268–1.3275 box.
Asia session carried cable through yesterday's 1.3259 prior high to a 1.3275 asian high, the leg driven by dollar softness after Williams' dovish read. Price has stalled under that high for five bars, with the 1.3268 pullback low and the asia trendline holding beneath. RSI(14) sits near 73, and ATR is under 4 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3268, 1.3259, 1.3253
Resistance: 1.3275, 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3275 asian high opens the 1.3280 range top, then 1.3300 round number
Loss of the 1.3268 pullback low and the asia trendline exposes a retest of the 1.3259 prior high
A break back below 1.3259 would put the 1.3253 asian low and the 61.8% of the asia leg fib in view
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could reshape the session range
04:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 68 · price 1.32734
Asian HL chain above prior high, capped at 1.3275.
The Asian leg up from the 1.3254 asian low cleared yesterday's prior high at 1.3259 on a softer dollar after Williams' comments. It has now stalled with three tests of the 1.3275 session high, while the HL trendline and the 1.3268 pullback low hold underneath. RSI(14) is near 68 and ATR(14) is only 3.4 pips, a thin late-Asia tape ahead of London open.
Support: 1.32682, 1.3259, 1.32535
Resistance: 1.32746, 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3275 session high would bring the 1.3280 range top into play, with the 1.3300 round number beyond
A break of the HL trendline and the 1.3268 pullback low would put the Asian leg's 50–61.8% retracement (1.3264–1.3262) in focus
Losing the 1.3259 prior high would turn the overnight breakout into a false break
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC and Bowman at 09:40 GMT could shift this read before London settles
US CPI at 12:30 GMT is the main driver for cable's 1.3200–1.3300 range
Asia HH/HL chain above the prior NY high; first pullback testing the rising trendline.
Late in the Asia session, cable has extended the post-Williams dollar dip. It cleared the prior high at 1.3259 from the NY session and stalled at 1.3275, where the Asia high was capped on three bars. The pullback is sitting on the trendline at 1.3268, which has held every low from the 1.3254 Asia low, and RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-60s.
Support: 1.32682, 1.3259, 1.32535
Resistance: 1.32746, 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3268 trendline shifts focus to a retest of the 1.3259 prior high
A close above the 1.3275 Asia high puts the 1.3280–1.3300 range top and the 1.3300 psych level in view
A loss of the 1.3254 Asia low unwinds the overnight breakout
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC around the London open, then US CPI at 12:30 GMT, could reset this structure
Asia HH/HL chain after breaking the NY high, pressing into the 1.3280 range top.
Cable has built higher lows from 1.3215 since Tuesday's London open, helped by a softer dollar after Fed Williams' comments. Late in the Asia session it cleared the 1.3259 NY high and set an Asia high at 1.3275, holding an Asian HL at 1.3265 off the 1.3253 Asia base. RSI(14) is near 75 into the lower edge of the digest's 1.3280–1.3300 range top.
Support: 1.32647, 1.3259, 1.32525
Resistance: 1.32746, 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.3259 NY high would mark the Asia breakout as a false break
Loss of the 1.3265 Asian HL, and then the Asia trendline, breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Range top at 1.3280–1.3300 round number: area to watch for rejection or a break of the three-week range
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 79 · price 1.32735
Asian HH/HL chain after breaking yesterday's 1.3259 prior high.
The Asia session extended the post-Williams dollar dip. It cleared the 1.3259 prior high and stepped up from the 1.3253 asian base to a 1.3275 session high, with RSI(14) near 79 and ATR about 4 pips. Price sits just under the 1.3280 range top of the three-week range, late in the Asian session ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.32647, 1.3259, 1.32525
Resistance: 1.32745, 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3265 hl pivot breaks the Asian HH/HL chain, putting the 1.3259 prior high in play as a retest
A break of the rising Asian trendline, or a pullback into the 38.2–61.8% asian leg fib (1.3266–1.3261), would mark the first real correction
A close above the 1.3280 range top tests the three-week ceiling and the 1.3300 round number
Losing the 1.3253 asian base unwinds the overnight leg
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, extending in thin Asia trade · RSI 77 · price 1.32713
Higher highs and higher lows; Asia broke above the NY high.
The Asia session pushed the uptrend to a fresh 24h session high at 1.3271, clearing the 1.3259 NY high as the dollar eased ahead of US CPI. RSI(14) is near 77, and higher lows hold along the Asia trendline. The 1.3280–1.3300 range top, with the 1.3300 round number, sits just overhead.
Support: 1.3259, 1.3253
Resistance: 1.3271, 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.3259 NY high would turn the Asia breakout into a false break
Loss of the Asia trendline and the 1.3253 Asian low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 38.2% fib of the day's move near 1.3250
A rejection at the 1.3280 range top keeps the three-week 1.3200–1.3300 range intact
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows, above prior NY high.
Asian session extended Tuesday's dollar-led rally after Williams' dovish remarks, lifting off the 1.3253 asian base and clearing the prior high at 1.3259 to set a session high at 1.3268. RSI(14) is near 71 with ATR around 3.6 pips. Price is now approaching the 1.3280 range top cited in the digest, with 1.3300 psych above.
Support: 1.3259, 1.3253, 1.3238
Resistance: 1.3268, 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3259 prior high would turn the Asian breakout into a false break back toward the 1.3253 asian base
A close above 1.3280 range top would expose 1.3300 psych and the top of the three-week range
A break below the 1.3238 swing low from NY hours would invalidate the higher-low chain
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Cable carried its HH/HL chain into the Asian session, clearing yesterday's NY high at 1.3259 and printing a fresh asia high at 1.3268 as the dollar stayed soft after Williams' dovish remarks. RSI(14) sits near 64, and ATR around 3 pips reflects thin Asian ranges. The 50% retracement of the NY low-to-Asia high leg lines up with the asian base at 1.3253.
Support: 1.3259, 1.3253, 1.3238
Resistance: 1.3268, 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Holding above the ny high at 1.3259 keeps the breakout intact; an M15 close back below the asian base at 1.3253 would mark it a false break
Loss of the ny low at 1.3238 breaks the higher-low sequence
1.3280 range top and the 1.3300 round number cap the three-week range; area to watch for rejection or break
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows through Asia, breakout above prior NY high.
The Asia session has cleared the 1.3259 prior high from late NY and printed a 24h high at 1.3267. Higher lows have stacked along the Asia trendline from the 1.3253 Asia low, and RSI(14) near 74 is hot but not extreme. The pre-CPI dollar pullback after Williams' dovish comments is the backdrop, and the 1.3280–1.3300 range top and round number sit overhead.
Support: 1.3259, 1.3253, 1.3238
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC, near the London open
A return below the 1.3259 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
A break of the Asia trendline and the 1.3253 Asia low opens a pullback toward the 50% fib and the 1.3238 NY low
Range top at 1.3280 and round number 1.3300 are the areas to watch for rejection or break
01:46 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flattening in Asia · RSI 60 · price 1.32609
Higher lows since the NY low; Asia broke above the prior high and is holding just over it.
Tuesday's dollar-driven London grind, after Williams signalled no 2027 hike, carried into Asia. Price cleared the 1.3259 prior high to a 1.3264 session high and is holding the retest at 1.3258. RSI(14) is near 60 and ATR is about 3 pips, typical of thin Asian trade, with the 38.2% fib of the NY-low-to-session-high leg sitting at the 1.3253 asia low.
Support: 1.3258, 1.32525, 1.32382
Resistance: 1.32635, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3258 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 1.3253 asia low / 38.2% fib
Clearance of the 1.3264 session high opens the path toward the 1.3300 round number, the top of the 1.3200–1.3300 range
Loss of the 1.3238 ny low breaks the higher-low sequence
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Uptrend, grinding higher in thin Asia trade · RSI 61 · price 1.32604
Higher highs and higher lows; Tuesday's 1.3259 high cleared in early Asia.
Cable extended Tuesday's dollar-driven climb, helped by Williams' no-2027-hike signal, from the 1.3238 NY low into early Asia. It cleared the 1.3259 prior high to a 1.32635 Asian high. A thin rollover spike to the 1.3242 spike low was reclaimed at once, and the 1.3251 swing low anchors the higher-low chain, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) only about 3 pips.
Support: 1.3259, 1.3251, 1.3242
Resistance: 1.32635, 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3259 prior high on a closing basis, followed by a break of the 1.3251 swing low near the 38.2% fib, would mark the Asia push as a false break.
A loss of the 1.3242 spike low, below the 61.8% retracement of the NY low to Asian high move, ends the intraday higher-low sequence.
Acceptance above the 1.32635 Asian high brings the 1.3280 range top and the 1.3300 round number into view, the upper edge of the 1.3200–1.3300 range.
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
HH/HL chain; early Asia clearing the prior NY high.
Cable has built higher lows from the 1.3212 Asian low on a softer USD after Williams' no-2027-hike remarks. Early Asia has printed a session high at 1.3264, just above the 1.3259 prior high from the NY session. The swing low at 1.3242 marks the base of the move and sits on the 38.2% fib, while RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 3.6 pips show a steady advance rather than a stretched one.
Support: 1.3259, 1.3250, 1.3242
Resistance: 1.32635, 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.3259 prior high keeps the Asian break intact; a slip back below returns price to the late-NY 1.3250 range floor
Failure to hold the 1.3242 swing low (38.2% fib) breaks the higher-low chain
1.3280 band top and the 1.3300 range top overhead; a push into that zone tests the three-week box
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from Asian low; prior high cleared in thin Asia trade.
The Dollar-driven rally off the 1.3217 Asian low, helped by Williams' no-2027-hike remarks, built HH/HLs through London and NY, and the 1.3238 NY low held on the pullback. Early Asia has now pushed through the 1.3259 prior high to a 1.3264 session high. RSI(14) is near 62 and ATR is thin at about 4 pips, with the late NY base at 1.3250 below and the 1.3280 UOB band top and 1.3300 range top above.
Support: 1.3259, 1.3251, 1.3238
Resistance: 1.3264, 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3259 prior high turns the Asia push into a false break back toward the 1.3250 late NY base
M15 close below the 1.3238 NY low breaks the HL chain and puts the rally fib 50% near 1.3240 in play
Acceptance above the 1.3264 session high exposes the 1.3280 UOB band top, then the 1.3300 range top
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Uptrend, grinding to new highs in thin Asia trade · RSI 59 · price 1.32597
Higher lows from the 1.3238 NY low; pressing the 1.3260 range top.
Early Asia has edged to a fresh 24h high at 1.3260, just past the 1.3259 late-NY peak, after a softer USD on Williams' remarks lifted cable out of the 1.3205–1.3222 Asian range through London. Higher lows hold above the 1.3238 NY low, with the late NY low at 1.3251 underpinning the drift. The range top at 1.3260 is being probed on low Asia participation.
Support: 1.3251, 1.3238
Resistance: 1.3260, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 closes above the 1.3260 range top would extend the higher-high chain toward the 1.3280 UOB band top
A break below the 1.3251 late NY low undercuts the rising support line and exposes the 1.3238 NY low near the 50% fib
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the Asian low, pressing the prior high.
Cable climbed about 55 pips off the 1.3204 Asian low as the dollar softened after Williams' comments. London and NY printed higher lows, including the 1.3238 NY low, and early Asia is now retesting the 1.3259 prior high on light activity. The 21:45 UTC dip to 1.3242 came in rollover liquidity and did not hold.
Support: 1.3251, 1.3238
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3259 prior high extends the HH chain, with 1.3300 the round number and the range top
Break of the 1.3251 swing low puts the 1.3238 NY low and 38.2% fib in focus
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 56 · price 1.32554
Higher lows since London; tight Asia consolidation under 1.3259.
London broke above the Asian range near 1.3230, and NY extended to a 1.3259 day high as the dollar softened after Williams' no-2027-hike remarks. Buyers stepped in at the 1.3238 NY low, the 38.2% fib, keeping the higher lows intact. Early Asia is holding a 6-pip band above the 1.3251 shelf low; the 1.3242 spike low printed in thin rollover liquidity.
Support: 1.3251, 1.3242, 1.3238
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3259 day high opens the 1.3300 range top of the three-week box
Loss of the 1.3251 shelf low brings the 1.3242 spike low and the higher lows line into play
Break below the 1.3238 NY low and 38.2% fib ends the intraday higher-lows sequence
BoE Pill at 06:00 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Asia; tight 1.3251–1.3259 hold above NY breakout.
Cable climbed from the 1.3204 Asian low through London, then broke the 1.3238–1.3252 NY chop at 18:00 UTC to a 1.3259 session high as USD eased on Williams' no-2027-hike remarks. Since then, price has held a tight late NY base at 1.3251. A thin-liquidity spike low at 1.3242 was fully reclaimed, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 55 early in the Asia session.
Support: 1.3251, 1.3242, 1.3238
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3259 session high opens the path toward the 1.3300 range top
Failure to hold the 1.3251 late NY base puts the 1.3242 spike low back in play; below it, the fib 38.2 at 1.3238 marks the NY low
BoE Pill speaks at 06:00 UTC, and US CPI is due at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM); either could materially shift this read