GBP/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 15 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the GBP/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 54 · price 1.32718
Higher lows since 1.3231 PPI low; flat cap at 1.3276–1.3278.
GBPUSD has printed higher lows through London and NY since the post-PPI spike to the 1.3231 PPI low, with USD weakness lifting it to a 1.3278 day high where three tests met rejection. Early Asia is compressing in a 1.3264–1.3276 band on the rising support line, and RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3244, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 day high breaks the cap and puts the 1.3300 round number in play
Loss of the 1.3264 asia low and the rising support line opens the 1.3244 ny low, near the 61.8% of the NY rally fib
Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; a break of 1.3244 would expose the 1.3231 ppi low
23:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 47 · price 1.32717
Tight range 1.3264–1.3278 beneath the day high into early Asia.
The NY rally ran from the 1.3231 post-PPI low to a 1.3278 day high as USD faded the hot data. Since then GBP/USD has compressed into a 14-pip band above the 1.3264 range low into early Asia session, just under the 1.3280–1.3300 cap. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and ATR is shrinking.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3254, 1.3244
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 day high puts 1.3300 psych in play
Loss of the 1.3264 range low exposes the fib 50% at 1.3254, then the 1.3244 ny swing low
BoE's Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Fed's Warsh at 03:30 UTC could break the Asian compression
23:16 UTC
Uptrend stalling under session high · RSI 47 · price 1.3271
Higher lows since the NY data spike, highs capped flat at 1.3276–1.3278.
Early Asia is compressing just under the 1.3278 session high. Highs at 1.3276–1.3278 have been rejected twice, while lows keep rising off the NY data spike after the hot PPI was faded on falling yields. The daily open gapped about 10 pips down to the 1.3264 gap low and has since been partly recovered; price is hugging EMA20 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3244
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high opens the 1.3300 range cap
Break below the 1.3264 gap low and the rising lows line exposes the 1.3244 ny low
Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC, both inside the Asian session, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 1.3231 data low; flat cap at 1.3278.
GBPUSD climbed about 75 pips off the 1.3201 Asian low on the UK data beats and a USD fade after the hot US PPI. The 12:30 UTC data low at 1.3231 marked the last deep pullback. In early Asia the pair is pinned under the 1.3278 session high, tested twice in late NY. The rollover low at 1.3264 is holding, and RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3244, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high opens the 1.3300 round number, the range cap flagged in the digest
Loss of the 1.3264 rollover low exposes the fib 50% near 1.3254 and the 1.3244 ny pullback low
Break below the 1.3231 data low negates the day's higher-low sequence
Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC) speeches could materially shift this read
22:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 52 · price 1.32713
Higher lows compressing under 1.3278 day high; late-NY flat top.
GBP climbed from 1.3201 in Asia to 1.3278 by late NY. A post-data dip to the 1.3231 data low faded as USD weakness on falling yields outweighed the hot PPI. Since then price has compressed under the 1.3278 day high on rising lows, and the rollover low at 1.3264 has held.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3244, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 day high opens the 1.3280–1.3300 range cap
Loss of the 1.3264 rollover low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 1.3244 NY swing low
Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC) speeches in the Asia session could materially shift this read
Fib 50% of the NY leg near 1.3254 sits between the NY swing low and the rollover low
Higher lows since US data; tight 1.3264–1.3278 band in early Asia.
UK data beats and a yield-led USD fade carried the pair from 1.3196 through London and NY. The dip after the US data to the 1.3231 data low was bought, and two NY tests capped at the 1.3278 session high. Early Asia is holding a 1.3264–1.3278 band after the rollover gap, with higher lows intact along the rising support line.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3244, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high opens the 1.3300 round number, which is also the range top.
Failure to hold the 1.3264 rollover low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.3244 NY low.
Bailey (02:00 UTC, ~3.5h) and Warsh (03:30 UTC, ~5h) could materially shift this read.
22:16 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 57 · price 1.32742
Higher lows pressing a flat 1.3276-1.3278 cap.
The NY leg off the 1.3244 NY swing low, driven by the UK data beats and the USD fade after hot US PPI, topped at the 1.3278 day high. Price has since compressed between 1.3264 and 1.3278 in early Asia, with the rollover low holding at the 38.2% of that leg. The rollover gap is nearly filled, and price sits just above the ema20 near 1.3270, with RSI(14) at 57.
Support: 1.3270, 1.3264, 1.3244
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3278 day high, capped three times today, puts the 1.3300 range top in play
Loss of the ema20 near 1.3270 and the 1.3264 rollover low exposes the 1.3244 NY swing low
Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC, both within ~5h, could materially shift this read
Asia's rally from 1.3188 extended to 1.3276 in London on the UK GDP and IP beats. NY added higher lows at 1.3231, 1.3244 and 1.3265 as the USD faded hot PPI, but the session high at 1.3278 held twice. The rollover gap took price back to 1.3268, sitting just above the 1.3265 swing low and below EMA20 as the range compresses.
Support: 1.32651, 1.3260, 1.32444
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high opens the 1.3300 range top
Failure to hold the 1.3265 swing low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3260, then the 1.3244 NY low
BoE's Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Fed's Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under day high · RSI 44 · price 1.32687
Higher lows into a flat 1.3278 cap.
UK data beats and a yield-led USD fade built a chain of higher lows: the 1.3231 US data low, then the 1.3244 NY low, then the 1.3265 swing low. Price was rejected twice at the 1.3278 day high, and early Asia opened with a thin rollover dip to 1.3264. RSI(14) is near 44 and price is just under EMA20.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3244, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3264 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and leaves a double top at the 1.3278 day high
Acceptance above the 1.3278 day high opens the 1.3300 round number, the range top cited in the macro digest
Fib 50% of the 1.3231–1.3278 leg sits at 1.3254, just above the 1.3244 NY low
BoE's Bailey at 02:00 UTC (~4h) and Fed's Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since US data low, flat cap at 1.3278.
Sterling climbed through London and NY on the UK data beats and a softer post-PPI dollar. The leg from the 1.3231 US data low printed higher lows but was capped three times at the 1.3278 session high. The rollover gap left price at 1.3269, just above the 1.3265 late NY low, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 1.3265, 1.3244, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high opens the 1.3300 round number, the digest's range top
Failure to hold the 1.3265 late NY low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.3244 NY swing low
A break below the 1.3231 US data low would retrace the full US-session leg
Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:01 UTC
Uptrend, compressing near highs · RSI 60 · price 1.32765
Higher lows since NY low, capped at session high.
GBPUSD ran from 1.3182 to 1.3259 in the Asian range, extended to 1.3276 on the UK GDP beat in London, and the hot-PPI spike to the 1.3231 ppi low was bought as falling yields weighed on USD. After NY close the pair is compressing just under the 1.3278 session high, with a higher low at 1.3265 holding the rising trendline from the 1.3246 NY-afternoon dip.
Support: 1.32647, 1.32444, 1.32307
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC) fall in the coming Asia session and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high pushes price into the 1.3280-1.3300 range top
Failure to hold the 1.3265 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.3244 ny low
20:46 UTC
Uptrend, compressing below day high · RSI 61 · price 1.32755
Rising lows through NY, flat cap at 1.3278 day high.
London lifted the pair on the UK GDP and production beats. NY added a second leg off the 1.3231 PPI low as the dollar faded the hot print. Late-NY trade is now compressing just under the 1.3278 day high, with rising lows from the 1.3244 NY low to the 1.3265 swing low holding. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR has shrunk to about 6 pips as liquidity thins into Asia.
Support: 1.32647, 1.32444, 1.32307
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 day high puts the 1.3300 round number in play
Break below the 1.3265 swing low ends the NY rising-lows sequence and exposes the 1.3244 NY low
Loss of the 1.3231 PPI low would retrace the entire NY leg
Bailey speaks at 02:00 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC. Either could materially shift this read during the Asia session.
20:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 64 · price 1.32762
Higher lows from 1.3231 PPI low; pressing session high 1.3278.
Sterling dipped to the 1.3231 ppi low on the hot US PPI print, then built higher lows at 1.3246 and the 1.3265 pullback low as the dollar faded on falling yields. Price is grinding into the 1.3278 session high late in NY, just under the 1.3280-1.3300 range top, with ATR down near 6 pips as activity thins.
Support: 1.3265, 1.3246, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high puts the 1.3300 range top in play
Loss of the 1.3265 pullback low breaks the higher-low trendline; 1.3246 higher low and the 61.8% fib near 1.3249 sit below
Hammack (20:30 UTC), Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read in Asia
Return below the 1.3231 ppi low unwinds the post-PPI recovery
20:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 64 · price 1.32755
Higher lows since 16:00 UTC; London high 1.3276 and late-NY high 1.3278 cap price.
GBP/USD extended the UK-data rally through NY. The hot US PPI spike to the 1.3231 ppi low was bought, and a higher-low chain from the 1.3246 leg origin produced a 1.3278 session high just above the London high. The post-NY pullback held the 1.3265 swing low near the 38.2% fib of that leg, and price is back testing the session high with a quiet ATR around 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.3265, 1.3246, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high opens the 1.3280–1.3300 range top
Loss of the 1.3265 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.3246 leg origin, then the 1.3231 ppi low
Hammack (20:30 UTC), then Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC) in the Asia session could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 12:30 UTC PPI spike, highs capped near 1.3276-1.3278.
Late NY: price is back near the 1.3278 session high after a 19:30 UTC swing low at 1.3265, extending a higher-low chain that began at the 1.3231 ppi low and ran through the 1.3244 ny low. UK data beats and a softer USD on falling yields lifted the pair above the Asian range, but 1.3276-1.3278 has capped three pushes below the 1.3300 round number.
Support: 1.32647, 1.32444, 1.32307
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high opens the 1.3300 round number
Break of the 1.3265 swing low and the HL trendline shifts the read to range; 50% of the NY leg sits near 1.3254
Loss of the 1.3244 ny low breaks the higher-low sequence
Hammack 20:30 UTC, Bailey 02:00 UTC and Warsh 03:30 UTC during the Asia session could materially shift this read
Sterling held its UK data-beat rally through NY. The late-NY leg printed a 1.3278 session high, just above the 1.3276 London top, then faded to its 38.2% retracement near 1.3265, with price sitting on EMA20 and RSI(14) cooled to 54. Higher lows at the 1.3231 PPI low and the 1.3246 swing low keep a rising trendline intact beneath the flat cap.
Support: 1.3260, 1.3246, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high opens the 1.3300 round number, the range top flagged into Bailey
Loss of the 1.3260 pivot and the rising trendline shifts focus to the 1.3246 swing low, then the 1.3231 PPI low
Hammack (20:30 UTC), Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC) all land before or in the Asia session and could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing under session high · RSI 64 · price 1.32697
Higher lows through NY; triple cap 1.3273-1.3278.
GBPUSD climbed from the 1.3182 low through Asia and London on the broad UK GDP/IP beat. NY spiked to a 1.3231 data low on hot US PPI, but the dollar faded and higher lows (ny swing low 1.3246) lifted price to a 1.3278 session high late in NY. It is now consolidating just below that high with RSI(14) near 64; supply has capped 1.3273-1.3278 three times today.
Support: 1.3246, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high opens the 1.3300 round number, the digest's range top
Break below the 1.3246 ny swing low snaps the NY higher-low trendline and exposes the 1.3231 data low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Price sits near the 38.2% of the day rally fib only on a drop toward 1.3241; shallow holds above it keep the uptrend structure intact
Higher lows through NY; session high 1.3278 just above London's 1.3276 peak.
UK data beats and a dollar that reversed its post-PPI pop carried GBPUSD out of the Asian range, through the 1.3260 breakout area and to a session high at 1.3278 late in NY, just above London's 1.3276 peak. The 12:30 UTC data low at 1.3231 and the NY low at 1.3244 sit under a rising-lows sequence. Price is now stalling in tight bars just under the 1.3280–1.3300 range top, with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 1.3260, 1.3244, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high, then the 1.3300 round number, would break the 1.3280–1.3300 range top
Loss of the 1.3260 breakout area (38.2% of the NY leg) breaks the NY rising lows and exposes the 1.3244 NY low
A break below the 1.3231 data low erases the US-session recovery
Hammack 20:30 UTC, Bailey Fri 02:00 UTC and Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the 12:30 UTC PPI spike, flat cap at 1.3276-1.3278.
GBP/USD is back at the 1.3276-1.3278 session high after London's break of the Asian range (1.3188-1.3259) and a third test of the cap late in NY hours. The 12:30 UTC US PPI spike low at 1.3231 and the 1.3246 higher low left the sequence intact as the dollar faded. RSI(14) is near 68, warm but not stretched.
Support: 1.3246, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3278 session high opens the 1.3300 round number, the range top cited in the digest
Failure to hold the 1.3246 higher low breaks the NY sequence and exposes the 1.3231 ppi low
Pullback toward the 1.3258-1.3262 zone keeps the 16:00 rally retracement shallow
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC), could materially shift this read
Sterling climbed on the UK GDP and industrial production beats. The 1.3231 NY low on the US PPI bar held, and the USD fade since then built higher lows at 1.3244 and the 1.3246 swing low. Late in the NY session, after London close, price is edging past the 1.3276 london high into the 1.3280 range top, with RSI(14) firm in the low 70s.
Support: 1.3276, 1.3246, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3280 range top opens the 1.3300 round number
Slip back below the 1.3276 london high, plus a break of the rising trendline near 1.3257, would mark rejection at the range top
Failure to hold the 1.3246 swing low exposes the 1.3231 ny low and negates the higher-low chain
Hammack 20:30 UTC, Bailey 02:00 UTC and Warsh 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:16 UTC
Uptrend, pressing day high · RSI 63 · price 1.32745
Higher lows since 12:30 UTC, flat cap near 1.3275.
London broke above the Asian high at 1.3259 after the UK GDP beat. A fading USD after the hot PPI print kept higher lows forming at the 1.3231 data low and the 1.3246 swing low. Late NY is now on its third test of the 1.3276 day high, just under the 1.3280 range top, with RSI(14) at 63 and no sign of strain.
Support: 1.3259, 1.3246, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3276 day high and 1.3280 range top puts 1.3300 psych in play
A break below the 1.3246 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and returns price to the session range
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC and BoE's Bailey at 02:00 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
A third rejection at the day high would leave a flat cap over the session
The NY rally off the 1.3231 session low, set on the 12:30 UTC US data spike, has built rising lows at 1.3244 and 1.3246 and is now retesting the 1.3276 London high in late NY hours. Price is holding above the Asian high at 1.3259. Sterling is carried by the UK GDP/IP beats and a dollar that faded hot PPI. RSI(14) at 62 is not stretched.
Support: 1.3259, 1.3246, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3276 london high opens the 1.3280 range top and 1.3300 round number
Break below the 1.3246 swing low snaps the rising lows chain and exposes the 1.3231 session low
Slip back under the 1.3259 asian high would mark another rejection at the London high
Hammack 20:30 UTC, then Bailey 02:00 UTC and Warsh 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
17:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, capped at session high · RSI 62 · price 1.32712
Higher lows since PPI spike low, triple test of 1.3275.
Since the PPI-spike low at 1.3231 (ppi low), NY printed higher lows at the 1.3244 double low and 1.3246. After London close the pair is back testing the 1.3276 session high, a third test after the London and NY highs, with the USD fade overriding hot US data. RSI(14) at 62 is not stretched, and the 1.3260 ny pivot is the nearest shelf below.
Support: 1.3260, 1.3244, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3280, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3276 session high exposes the 1.3280 range top and the 1.3300 round number
Loss of the 1.3260 ny pivot followed by a break of the 1.3244 double low ends the NY higher-lows sequence and puts the 1.3231 ppi low back in play
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri during the Asia session, could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3231 under a 1.3273-1.3276 cap; late-NY range.
The UK GDP/IP beat lifted the pair from the 1.3233 London low to a 1.3276 session high. The hot US PPI spike to 1.3231 (ppi low) was fully absorbed. Late NY is pressing 1.3270 on a rising trendline from the ppi low, with the session high rejecting twice and the 1.3246 ny shelf holding below.
Support: 1.3246, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3276 session high opens the 1.3300 range top
Loss of the 1.3246 ny shelf breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3231 ppi low
Bailey (Fri 02:00 UTC) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; Hammack 20:30 UTC is a minor risk
Late in the NY session after London close, price is back at the 1.3273-1.3276 band where the NY high and London high both capped. Higher lows at the 1.3231 PPI low, near the 38.2% fib of the 1.3160-1.3276 rally, and at 1.3246 keep the rising trendline intact. UK data beats and a USD fade after the hot PPI print drove the move; RSI(14) at 63 is not stretched.
Support: 1.32463, 1.32307
Resistance: 1.32734, 1.32759, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3276 london high exposes the 1.3300 range top
Break of the 1.3246 higher low and rising trendline turns the structure back into a range
Loss of the 1.3231 ppi low negates the higher-low sequence
Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Bailey at 02:00 and Warsh at 03:30 UTC Fri, could materially shift this read
17:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalled below day high · RSI 58 · price 1.32606
Range 1.3244–1.3276 since London, double rejection at top.
UK data beats and a softer USD carried price through the Asian high, but London stalled at the 1.3276 day high and NY was rejected there again at 1.3273 after the US PPI spike tagged the 1.3231 ppi low. Late NY, price sits mid-range at 1.3261, above the 1.3244 ny low, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.3244, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3276 day high breaks the range and opens 1.3300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3244 ny low exposes the 1.3231 ppi low and the 61.8% retrace of the ppi low–day high leg
Hammack 20:30 UTC, then Bailey 02:00 UTC and Warsh 03:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
16:46 UTC
Sideways after London high, momentum neutral · RSI 53 · price 1.32554
Range 1.3244–1.3276 since mid-London, lower high at 1.3273 in NY.
London broke the Asian high of 1.3259 to a 1.3276 session high, then capped price. Late NY trade sits in a 1.3244–1.3276 range, with a lower high at 1.3273. The PPI spike to 1.3231 was a false break of the range floor, reclaimed within the bar as yields faded the hot print. Price sits on the 50% of the London leg near 1.3255, holding above the 61.8% fib at 1.3249, RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 1.3249, 1.3244, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3273, 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3276 session high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.3300 round number in play
Break below the 1.3244 range floor reopens the 1.3231 PPI low
Hammack at 20:30 UTC and Bailey at 02:00 UTC are event risks that can break the range
London and NY highs capped at 1.3273-76; NY pullback holding above 1.3244.
The UK GDP beat and a fading USD after hot PPI drove London above the 1.3259 Asian high to a 1.3275 session high. NY absorbed the PPI spike low at 1.3231, then was rejected at 1.3273, and price now sits late in NY at the 61.8% retracement of the London leg, between the 1.3244 swing low and the Asian high. RSI is neutral near 47 and price sits between EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.3244, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3275, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3244 swing low breaks the NY higher-low and exposes the 1.3231 ppi low
Close above the 1.3259 asian high reopens the 1.3275 session high; a break there opens the path to the 1.3300 psych range top
Hammack 20:30 UTC, then Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC) overnight, could materially shift this read
Range 1.3231–1.3276 with a double top at the highs, price mid-range.
London broke the 1.3259 asian high on the UK data beats and set a 1.3276 session high. In NY the hot-PPI sweep to the 1.3231 ppi low was bought back, but a retest at 1.3273 stalled into a double top. After London close, price is coiling between the 1.3244 ny low and the asian high, sitting on the 50% of the PPI swing fib with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 1.3244, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3244 ny low exposes the 1.3231 ppi low, the double top neckline
Close above the 1.3276 session high voids the double top and opens the 1.3300 round number
Hold above the 1.3259 asian high would put the double top highs back in play
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then BoE's Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Fed Chair Warsh (03:30 UTC) Friday could reset the Asian range
16:01 UTC
Range after Asia rally, momentum neutral · RSI 53 · price 1.32559
London/NY range 1.3231–1.3276, higher low at 1.3244.
The broad UK data beat carried a London push to the 1.3276 session high. The US PPI spike at 12:30 UTC probed the 1.3231 session low and was absorbed, and the NY retest of the range top at 1.3273 met rejection. Late in NY, after London close, price is rotating at the 1.3259 asian high, holding a higher low at the 1.3244 ny low, with RSI(14) near 53.
Support: 1.3244, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3276 session high breaks the range top and opens the 1.3300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3244 ny low breaks the higher low and exposes the 1.3231 session low
Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then BoE's Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Fed's Warsh at 03:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
15:46 UTC
Sideways after a London leg higher, below EMA20/50 · RSI 51 · price 1.32487
1.3231–1.3276 range since London, lower high at 1.3273.
London broke above the Asian range and ran the UK data beat to a 1.3276 day high. The hot US PPI print spiked price to a 1.3231 us data low at the NY open before it recovered, but the 1.3273 retest left a lower high and price has slipped back to 1.3249, just above the 1.3244 ny low and about 58% into the ny leg fib.
Support: 1.3244, 1.3231, 1.3221
Resistance: 1.3266, 1.3276, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3244 ny low exposes the 1.3231 us data low, then the 1.3221 asian low
A close above the 1.3266 swing high puts the 1.3276 day high back in play, with UOB's 1.3280 range top above that
Failure again at the lower highs line near 1.3273–1.3276 keeps the range read intact
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, BoE's Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The UK data beat carried the London leg to a 1.3276 session high, but the 12:30 UTC US PPI spike flushed to the 1.3231 data low before demand stepped in. NY then stalled at 1.3273, a lower high and a rejection inside the 1.3260–1.3280 band. Price sits mid-range near the 50% of the NY leg fib, back under the 1.3259 Asian high, with the 1.3244 NY low the nearest pivot below.
Support: 1.32444, 1.32307
Resistance: 1.32759, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3276 session high breaks the lower-high line and opens the 1.3300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3244 NY low exposes the 1.3231 data low and the range floor
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then BoE's Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Fed's Warsh (03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower high under London high, holding above data low.
The broad UK data beat carried GBP/USD to a 1.3276 London high. The NY spike on hot US PPI dipped below the 1.3243 pivot low to the 1.3231 data low, then recovered. The NY push then stalled at 1.3273 for a lower high, and price is back at 1.3250, the 61.8% of the London leg, sitting just under the EMAs with RSI(14) at 45.
Support: 1.3243, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3243 pivot low exposes the 1.3231 data low; a break there turns the 1.3276/1.3273 pair into a double top
M15 close above the 1.3276 London high clears the lower high and reopens the 1.3300 range top
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then BoE's Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Fed Chair Warsh (03:30 UTC) on Friday, could materially shift this read
1.3231–1.3276 range after London high; higher lows since PPI spike.
The broad UK data beat lifted GBPUSD out of the 1.3221–1.3259 Asian range to a 1.3276 session high in London. The US PPI release swept to the 1.3231 PPI low before price recovered as the USD softened. A 14:30 UTC probe to 1.3273 was rejected just below the session high, leaving the London-NY overlap inside a 1.3231–1.3276 range with an intraday HL at 1.3249 and RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.3249, 1.3231, 1.3221
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3276 session high brings the 1.3280 range top (UOB) into play
Loss of the 1.3249 intraday HL and the rising support from the PPI low exposes 1.3231
Close below the 1.3231 PPI low points back toward the 1.3221 Asian low and breaks the post-PPI higher-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC) overnight, could materially shift this read
14:46 UTC
Post-rally range, upper half in play · RSI 54 · price 1.32626
1.3231–1.3276 range since London high; US-data false break reclaimed.
The UK-data rebound peaked at a 1.3276 London high, and price has ranged below it since. The hot US PPI print at 12:30 UTC briefly swept below the Asian low to the 1.3231 data low, holding above the 38.2% rally fib, and was fully reclaimed. NY now presses the 1.3266 NY high from above the 1.3259 Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.3259, 1.3243, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3266, 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3266 NY high reopens the 1.3276 London high and the 1.3300 round number
Slip back below the 1.3259 Asian high returns price toward the 1.3243 range floor
Loss of the 1.3231 data low breaks the range lower and exposes the 38.2% rally fib near 1.3223
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, BoE's Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:31 UTC
Uptrend off 1.3137, stalling below session high · RSI 57 · price 1.32595
Tight 1.3243–1.3266 range under London high; false break of range low on US data reclaimed.
The UK data beat carried London to a 1.3276 session high near the 1.3280 range top before a rejection. The 12:30 UTC US PPI/retail sales print then spiked price through the 1.3243 swing low to a 1.3231 US data low, and the move was reclaimed within the bar. Mid-NY session, price is pinned under the 1.3266 intraday cap with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 1.3243, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3266, 1.3276
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3266 intraday cap reopens the 1.3276 session high and the 1.3280 range top
Failure to hold the 1.3243 swing low, which coincides with the 23.6% fib of the rally, exposes the 1.3231 US data low
BoE's Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Fed's Warsh (03:30 UTC) during the Asia session could materially shift this read; Hammack speaks at 20:30 UTC
14:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, choppy since London high · RSI 58 · price 1.32625
Consolidating between 1.3231 and 1.3276, holding above Asian high.
Sterling broke above the Asian high at 1.3259 in London on the broad UK data beat and set a 1.3276 session high before fading. The hot US PPI print triggered a sweep to a 1.3231 data low at the 12:30 UTC release. Price recovered from the pre-data low zone around 1.3243 into the NY session and is back testing the Asian high, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.3259, 1.3243, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3276 session high opens the 1.3300 range top
Failure back below the 1.3243 pre-data low exposes the 1.3231 data low
Fed's Hammack 20:30 UTC could shift the read on USD after PPI
BoE's Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Fed's Warsh (03:30 UTC) speak in the Asia session
14:01 UTC
Intraday pullback from London high, flattening · RSI 49 · price 1.32508
Lower highs since London high; NY session compressing 1.3239–1.3259.
The UK data beat carried London through the Asian high to 1.3276. Supply capped it there, and the hot US PPI and retail sales print at 12:30 UTC spiked a 1.3231 spike low that was bought straight back. Early NY session is now compressing between the us data base at 1.3239 and the Asian high at 1.3259, which lines up with the 61.8% fib of the London sell-off, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.3239, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3276, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3259 asian high reopens the 1.3276 london high and the 1.3280 range top
Failure to hold the 1.3239 us data base exposes the 1.3231 spike low and confirms a lower-low
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC) on Fri, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the London session high, NY lows holding.
GBP/USD is consolidating 1.3231–1.3276 below the London session high, which came after the UK data beat. A lower high at 1.3261 and a 1.3259 high form a descending trendline now overhead near 1.3253. The hot US PPI and retail sales prints at 12:30 UTC triggered a sweep to the 1.3231 spike low that was bought back, and the 1.3239 NY low has held twice since. Price sits on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.3239, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3261, 1.3276
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 1.3261 lower high reopens the 1.3276 session high
Close below the 1.3231 spike low breaks the consolidation and exposes the 38.2% rally fib near 1.3223
Hammack (20:30 GMT), Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
13:31 UTC
Intraday rebound stalling, lower highs since London peak · RSI 44 · price 1.32505
Compressing range 1.3231–1.3276 under descending highs.
The UK data beats extended the rebound off the 1.3137 low to a 1.3276 session high early in London, but price has since printed a lower high at 1.3261. The hot US PPI release swept the Asian low with a spike to the 1.3231 data low. Price recovered to 1.3250 but remains below the descending lower-highs line, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.3243, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3261, 1.3276
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3261 lower high breaks the descending-highs sequence and reopens the 1.3276 session high
Failure to hold the 1.3243 swing low exposes the 1.3231 data low; a close beneath it confirms a lower low under the Asian range
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 GMT, then Bailey (Fri 02:00 UTC) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, lower highs since London · RSI 41 · price 1.32481
Lower highs below 1.3276 London high, 1.3243–1.3261 chop.
London broke the asian high at 1.3259 on the UK GDP beat and printed the london high at 1.3276, but each bounce since has stalled lower. In the first hour of NY the hot US PPI/retail sales sweep ran to the ppi low at 1.3231, broke the 1.3243 swing low and snapped back to 1.3250. Price is now below EMA20 and sitting on EMA50, RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.3243, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3259 asian high and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.3276 london high, with the 1.3280–1.3300 range top beyond
Failure to hold the 1.3243 swing low exposes the 1.3231 ppi low and the 23.6% retrace of the 1.3137–1.3276 move
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
12:46 UTC
Pullback from London high, lower highs forming · RSI 40 · price 1.32438
Lower-high/lower-low chain since 09:30 UTC; back inside Asian range.
The UK data beat carried price to a London high of 1.3276, but supply capped it under the 1.3260–1.3280 zone. A 1.3261 lower high and two lower lows followed. The 12:30 UTC US data bar swept to a 1.3231 data low and recovered to 1.3244, sitting on the 23.6% retrace of the 1.3137–1.3276 leg.
Support: 1.3231, 1.3221
Resistance: 1.3261, 1.3276
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3231 data low exposes the asian low at 1.3221, which sits near the 38.2% retrace
Close above the 1.3261 lower high breaks the descending sequence and puts the 1.3276 london high back in play
US retail sales/PPI follow-through in the first hour of NY could extend the 12:30 range beyond the ~9-pip ATR
BoE's Bailey (Fri 02:00 UTC) could reset the read during the Asia session
London high rejected; lower high at 1.3261 and a marginal lower low at 1.3243 into the NY open.
The UK data beats carried GBPUSD through the Asian range to a London high at 1.3276, but supply capped that top. A lower high at 1.3261 and a dip to the 1.3243 session low have taken price back below the 61.8% retrace of the London leg, with RSI(14) at 42, just as the NY open begins.
Support: 1.3243, 1.3233, 1.3201
Resistance: 1.3261, 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
US retail sales, PPI and claims at 12:30 UTC are landing now and could materially shift this read
A close below the 1.3243 session low extends the lower-high sequence and exposes the 1.3233 pre-London low, then the 1.3201 Asian low
A reclaim of the 1.3261 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens 1.3276 and the 1.3300 round number
BoE's Bailey (Fri 02:00 UTC) is the next GBP-specific risk to the read
Higher lows from 1.3233; London high at 1.3276 rejected, now inside 1.3247–1.3276.
Softer USD and the UK GDP beat carried the rebound from yesterday's post-CPI low at 1.3137. London pushed through the Asian high at 1.3259 to a 1.3276 london high, which was rejected. Price is now compressing between the 1.3247 swing low and the 1.3261 lower high, with the rising trendline from the 1.3233 post-gdp low still intact and RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.32468, 1.32331
Resistance: 1.32613, 1.32759, 1.3280
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC (~45 min) could break the 1.3247–1.3276 box either way
M15 close above the 1.3261 lower high and then the 1.3276 london high opens the 1.3280 range top
Break of the 1.3247 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 1.3233 post-gdp low
BoE's Bailey speaks Fri 02:00 UTC, a GBP-specific risk after the NY session
11:46 UTC
Uptrend off the post-CPI low, pausing below session high · RSI 56 · price 1.32575
Higher lows since the GDP dip; pullback from 1.3276 held the 61.8% retrace.
GBP/USD has recovered the post-CPI drop to the 1.3137 low as US yields fell. London extended the move after the UK GDP beat, rising from the 1.3233 gdp low to a 1.3276 session high, where it was rejected just above the pre-CPI high. The pullback held the 1.3247 swing low at the 61.8% of that leg, so the rising lows remain intact; price sits at the 1.3259 Asian high, hugging EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.32468, 1.32331
Resistance: 1.32759, 1.3280
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 1.3247 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 1.3233 gdp low
A close above the 1.3276 session high puts the 1.3280 range top in play
11:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the CPI low, stalling below range top · RSI 59 · price 1.32605
Higher lows since the 1.3137 post-CPI low; London broke the Asian high, rejected at 1.3276, pulled back to 1.3247.
GBPUSD has retraced the full drop from yesterday's hot US CPI print, helped by falling US yields and today's UK GDP beat. London cleared the Asian high at 1.3259 but was rejected at the 1.3276 session high, just under the 1.3280 range top. The pullback held 1.3247, near the 61.8% fib of the London leg and on the rising lows line, and price is now back testing the Asian high.
Support: 1.3259, 1.3247, 1.3221
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3280
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3276 session high puts the 1.3280 range top in play
Loss of the 1.3247 pullback low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 1.3221 asian low
BoE's Bailey speaks Fri 02:00 UTC, a GBP-specific risk into the Asia session
11:01 UTC
Recovery uptrend, stalling after London rejection · RSI 51 · price 1.32505
London false break above prior high, pullback into Asian range top.
The rebound from yesterday's post-CPI low at 1.3137 carried London through the asian high at 1.3259 to a session high at 1.3276, just above the pre-CPI prior high at 1.3271, before a sharp rejection. Price has slipped back to the 1.3247 pullback low near the 61.8% of the London leg fib, under EMA20 with RSI(14) flat at 51. A softer USD on falling yields and the UK data beat drove the move.
Support: 1.3247, 1.3241, 1.3233
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3271, 1.3276
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian high at 1.3259 reopens the prior high and session high at 1.3271–1.3276
Loss of the 1.3247 pullback low and london low at 1.3241 exposes the 1.3233 swing low and full retrace of the London leg
US Retail Sales, PPI and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovery uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 51 · price 1.32496
HH at 1.3276 above Asian high, now retracing toward last higher low.
GBP/USD has fully retraced Wednesday's post-CPI drop. London broke the 1.3259 Asian high on the UK data beat and a softer USD, then hit a rejection at the 1.3276 session high, just under the 1.3280 range cap. The pullback is sitting on the 61.8% fib of the London leg at 1.3249 with RSI(14) neutral near 51, and the 1.3241 swing low anchors the higher-low sequence.
Support: 1.3249, 1.3241, 1.3233
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3276, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3241 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 1.3233 uk data low
Reclaim of the 1.3259 Asian high puts the 1.3276 session high and 1.3280 range cap back in play
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
BoE Governor Bailey speaks Fri 02:00 UTC, a GBP-specific risk for the range cap
10:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below range cap · RSI 54 · price 1.32545
HH/HL from 1.3137; London high rejected, back at 50% fib.
GBPUSD has fully retraced the post-CPI drop to 1.3137. London broke the 1.3259 Asian high on the UK data beat and printed a 1.3276 session high, but was rejected just under the 1.3280 range cap and is now back inside the Asian range, sitting on the 50% fib and ema20 of the London leg. The 1.3233 data low is the last higher low, with the Asian low at 1.3221 below it.
Support: 1.3249, 1.3233, 1.3221
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3276, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 61.8% fib at 1.3249 exposes the 1.3233 data low
A break of the 1.3233 data low ends the HH/HL chain and puts the 1.3221 asian low in focus
A reclaim of the 1.3259 asian high puts the 1.3276 session high and 1.3280 range cap back in play
US PPI, Retail Sales and claims at 12:30 UTC (15:30 broker, first hour of NY) could materially shift this read
BoE Bailey speaks Fri 02:00 UTC during the Asia session
10:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 68 · price 1.32716
Higher lows since 1.3233; London broke above the Asian high.
GBPUSD has fully recovered the post-CPI drop to 1.3137. London cleared the Asian high at 1.3259 on a softer USD and the broad UK GDP beat, building higher lows from the 1.3233 swing low. Price is now probing the 1.3276 session high just under the 1.3280 range top, with RSI(14) firm near 68 but not stretched.
Support: 1.3259, 1.3241, 1.3233
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3280 range top extends the breakout beyond the cited cap
Slip back under the 1.3259 asian high turns the London breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.3241 london low breaks the higher-low chain toward the 1.3233 swing low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
BoE Governor Bailey speaks Fri 02:00 UTC, outside the next few hours but key for the range top
Early in London, price broke the 1.3259 Asian high after the broad UK GDP/IP beat and a softer USD. It printed a 1.3268 session high and has almost fully retraced the post-CPI drop back toward the 1.3271 pre-CPI high. Higher lows at 1.3233, the 1.3241 London low and the 1.3255 swing low keep the intraday trendline intact, with RSI(14) near 66 warm but not stretched.
Support: 1.32587, 1.32552, 1.3241
Resistance: 1.32681, 1.32714, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3271 pre-CPI high puts the 1.3280 range top in play
Loss of the 1.3255 swing low, also the 38.2% of the London leg fib, breaks the higher-lows chain and reopens the 1.3241 London low
Slip back under the 1.3259 Asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
09:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing pre-CPI high · RSI 66 · price 1.32629
Higher lows since the 06:30 UTC swing low; London broke above the Asian range and the pullback to its top held.
GBP/USD has retraced the full CPI-day drop from 1.3137 on softer US yields and the UK GDP/IP beat. London broke the Asian high at 1.3259, and the 1.3255 dip held as a retest. The session high at 1.3268 now sits just shy of the 1.3271 pre-CPI high, with RSI(14) at 66, not stretched.
Support: 1.3259, 1.3241, 1.3233
Resistance: 1.3268, 1.3271, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3271 pre-CPI high opens the 1.3280 range cap
Loss of the 1.3241 london low breaks the rising support line and the higher-low chain
Close back below the 1.3233 swing low (23.6% fib zone) undoes the London breakout read
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read via yields
BoE Bailey Fri 02:00 UTC is the next GBP event risk
09:16 UTC
Uptrend off the post-CPI low, stalling · RSI 62 · price 1.32588
London broke the Asian high, now retesting it.
The rebound from the 1.3137 post-CPI low extended in London after the UK GDP and industrial production beat. Price broke the 1.3259 Asian high, but the London leg stalled at the 1.3268 session high, just under the 1.3271 CPI high. Price is now retesting the Asian high, and the London low at 1.3233 is followed by a higher swing low at 1.3241.
Support: 1.3259, 1.3241, 1.3233
Resistance: 1.3268, 1.3271, 1.3280
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.3259 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3241 swing low breaks the London higher-low line and exposes the 1.3233 london low
A close above the 1.3271 cpi high puts the 1.3280 range cap in play
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 60 · price 1.32567
Higher lows from 1.3233; Asian-high break rejected at 1.3268.
Early London pushed through the Asian high at 1.3259, helped by the UK GDP/IP beat and softer US yields, but was rejected at the 1.3268 session high just under the 1.3271 pre-CPI high. Price has slipped back below the Asian high toward the fib 50% of the London leg at 1.3251. The higher low at 1.3241 and the swing low at 1.3233 keep the rising trendline intact; RSI(14) is near 60 and ATR runs about 9 pips.
Support: 1.3251, 1.3241, 1.3233
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3268, 1.3280
What it said to watch
M15 hold below the 1.3259 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
M15 close above the 1.3268 session high opens the 1.3280 range cap
Loss of the 1.3241 higher low breaks the rising trendline; 1.3233 swing low is next
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Uptrend, early London extension · RSI 69 · price 1.32672
Higher lows since the 06:30 UTC GDP dip; Asian high broken in London.
London open cleared the Asian high at 1.3259. GBP/USD has now retraced almost all of yesterday's CPI drop toward the pre-CPI high at 1.3271, helped by softer US yields and the UK GDP beat. Higher lows hold from the 1.3233 GDP low through the 1.3241 London low, with RSI(14) near 69, warm but not stretched.
Support: 1.32587, 1.3241, 1.32331
Resistance: 1.32714, 1.3280
What it said to watch
BoE Breeden speaking now (08:45 UTC); a dovish echo of Pill could reverse the London breakout
An M15 close back below the 1.3259 Asian high would mark a false break
Acceptance above the 1.3271 pre-CPI high opens the 1.3280 range top
A break of the 1.3241 London low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low sequence
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 61 · price 1.32543
Post-CPI V-recovery; 1.3233–1.3259 range since the Asian high, London pressing the top.
GBP/USD has recovered most of yesterday's hot-CPI drop to 1.3137 as US yields reversed. The 1.3233 range low held through the UK GDP beat, and London is now testing the 1.3259 Asian high from above the 1.3240 London low. RSI(14) near 61 shows no extreme, and ATR is about 8 pips.
Support: 1.3240, 1.3233, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3271, 1.3280
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3259 Asian high opens the 1.3271 pre-CPI high and the 1.3280 range top.
A break below the 1.3240 London low returns price to the range; losing the 1.3233 range low marks a lower-low.
BoE Breeden at 08:45 UTC could shift GBP if he echoes Pill's dovish line.
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC; a hot set puts the 1.3200 round number back in play.
Range 1.3233–1.3259 since early Asia, lower high at London.
The yield-driven rebound from yesterday's 1.3137 post-CPI low has stalled into a 1.3233–1.3259 range since early Asia. London's first push stopped at 1.3254, a rejection below the Asian high, and price is back mid-range under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 47. The pullback remains shallow and holds well above the 23.6% of the CPI-low rebound.
Support: 1.3233, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3254, 1.3259, 1.3271
What it said to watch
Breeden at 08:45 UTC: a dovish echo of Pill could break the 1.3233 range low and expose the 1.3221 swing low
An M15 close above the 1.3259 Asian high breaks the range and brings the 1.3271 pre-CPI high into view
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC: a hot combo puts the 1.3200 psych range floor back in play
Repeated rejection at the 1.3254 London high would set a lower-high sequence inside the range
08:01 UTC
Recovery from post-CPI low, now ranging · RSI 56 · price 1.32499
Range 1.3233–1.3259 since Asia, early London testing range top.
The CPI recovery from the 1.3137 low ran on the US yield fade into a 1.3259 Asian high. Since then price has held a range, with the swing low at 1.3233 holding at 06:30 UTC. Early London has pushed back toward the range top, putting in a london high at 1.3254, with price above the ema20 and RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 1.3245, 1.3233, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3254, 1.3259, 1.3271
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3259 asian high breaks the range and opens the 1.3271 pre-cpi high
Failure to hold the 1.3233 swing low exposes the 1.3200 round number, the range floor since late September
BoE Breeden at 08:45 UTC: a dovish echo of Pill could cap the move at the london high
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 55 · price 1.3248
Post-CPI V-recovery; tight 1.3233–1.3259 range into early London.
The rebound from the 1.3137 post-CPI low ran through the Asia session to a 1.3259 Asian high as US yields slid. The UK GDP beat at 06:00 UTC drew a muted reaction; the dip to the 1.3233 post-GDP low held, and early London has lifted to a 1.3254 London high with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.3233, 1.3212, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3254, 1.3259, 1.3271
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3259 Asian high opens the 1.3271 pre-CPI high
Failure to hold the 1.3233 post-GDP low puts the fib 38.2 retrace of the CPI-low swing near 1.3212 and the 1.3200 round number in play
BoE Breeden at 08:45 UTC could shift the read if he echoes Pill's dovish line
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC are the main risk to the post-CPI USD fade
07:31 UTC
Recovery stalled, sideways below Asian high · RSI 48 · price 1.32463
Lower highs off 1.3259 Asian high, holding above 1.3233 GDP low.
The Asia session rally retraced about 80% of the US CPI drop as Treasury yields faded, topping at the 1.3259 Asian high. At London open, the UK GDP beat produced only a 1.3249 gdp high to 1.3233 gdp low swing. Price is now pressing the lower-highs line from the Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 1.3233, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3249, 1.3259, 1.3271
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3249 gdp high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.3259 Asian high
Clearing 1.3259 brings the 1.3271 pre-cpi high into view
Failure to hold the 1.3233 gdp low exposes the 1.3200 round number
BoE Breeden at 08:45 UTC and US PPI / Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Recovery stalling, lower highs since Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.3244
Tight 1.3233–1.3259 consolidation after Asian rally.
The Asia session rallied from 1.3182 to a 1.3259 Asia high, recovering from the US CPI selloff. The UK GDP beat produced only a brief spike to the 1.3249 gdp high, which faded to a 1.3233 gdp low. Price sits at London open against a lower highs line, holding just above the 38.2% fib.
Support: 1.3233, 1.3229, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3249, 1.3259, 1.3271
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3259 asia high breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 1.3271 pre-cpi high
Failure to hold the 1.3233 gdp low and the 38.2% fib at 1.3229 opens the 1.3200 range floor
BoE Breeden at 08:45 UTC: any echo of Pill's hike-pricing pushback could pressure the gdp low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Post-CPI recovery stalling, lower highs since Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.32376
Lower highs off 1.3259 Asian high, holding above Asian low.
The US CPI drop to 1.3137 has been retraced to an Asian high at 1.3259, but highs have stepped lower since. The UK GDP beat spike to 1.3249, the gdp high, was rejected into London open. Price sits at 1.3238, just above the 1.3233 gdp low and the 1.3229 asian low, with RSI(14) soft near 38.
Support: 1.3233, 1.3229, 1.3221
Resistance: 1.3249, 1.3259, 1.3271
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3229 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 1.3221 range floor.
Below 1.3221, the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop near 1.3212 is the next reference.
A close above the 1.3249 gdp high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens 1.3259.
Above 1.3259, the 1.3271 pre-cpi high is next.
BoE Breeden at 08:45 UTC could materially shift this read.
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
Asia carried the post-CPI recovery to the 1.3259 Asian high, then faded into a lower-highs sequence. The UK GDP and IP beat at 06:00 UTC lifted price only briefly, and the 1.3249 gdp high was rejected inside the bar. Early London trades flat near EMA20 with RSI(14) at 47, compressing above the 1.3236 session low.
Support: 1.3236, 1.3229
Resistance: 1.3249, 1.3259, 1.3272
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3236 session low breaks the Asian range floor and exposes the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg near 1.3229
A move back through the lower-highs line and the 1.3249 gdp high reopens the 1.3259 Asian high; acceptance above it brings the 1.3272 prior high (pre-CPI) into view
BoE's Breeden at 08:45 UTC could shift GBP pricing mid-London
US PPI and Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC is the main volatility risk for this range
Lower highs and lower lows below the 1.3259 asian high; pullback within the recovery leg.
The recovery leg from the 1.3137 post-CPI low, driven by the reversal in US yields, topped at the 1.3259 asian high and has since printed lower highs and lower lows. The UK GDP beat lifted price to a 1.3249 gdp spike at 06:00 UTC, but that rejection pulled it back to the 1.3236 session low ahead of London open. Price sits just under EMA20 and RSI(14) is neutral.
Support: 1.3236, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3249, 1.3259, 1.3272
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3236 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3221 asian low
Close above the 1.3259 asian high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 1.3272 pre-cpi high
Loss of the 1.3221 asian low exposes the 1.3200 range floor and the 23.6% retrace of the recovery leg near 1.3230
BoE's Breeden at 08:45 UTC, then US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Recovery uptrend, pulling back into London open · RSI 44 · price 1.32419
V-recovery from CPI low to 1.3259, now lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high.
Hot US CPI knocked GBPUSD to 1.3137 during NY hours. The Treasury yield reversal then drove a V-shaped recovery to an Asia high of 1.3259, and price has since drifted lower in a run of lower highs into London open. The UK GDP bar's gdp spike to 1.3249 met rejection, leaving price just above EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44 and the session low at 1.3236 below.
Support: 1.3236, 1.3230, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3249, 1.3259, 1.3272
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3236 session low extends the pullback toward the 1.3230 swing low, which sits on the 23.6% of the CPI-low rally fib
Failure to hold 1.3230 opens 1.3200, the round number and multi-week range floor
Close above the 1.3249 gdp spike and the 1.3259 asia high resumes the HH chain toward the 1.3272 pre-cpi high
BoE's Breeden at 08:45 UTC and US PPI/Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Post-CPI recovery stalled, fading since 03:00 UTC · RSI 43 · price 1.3237
Lower highs and lower lows off the 1.3259 Asian high, inside the Asian range.
The hot US CPI print knocked the pair from the 1.3272 pre-CPI high to 1.3137. The Asia session then recovered 120 pips as yields reversed, before rejection at the 1.3259 Asian high, with Pill's comments capping upside. Since 03:00 UTC, each lower high has come in below the fade line, and price at 1.3237 is sitting just above the 1.3230 Asia pivot and 23.6% retracement into the London open.
Support: 1.3230, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3247, 1.3259, 1.3272
What it said to watch
UK GDP, IP and manufacturing at 06:00 UTC (all f/c -0.1%) land on the current bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3221 Asian low extends the fade toward the 38.2% retracement near 1.3212 and the 1.3200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.3247 lower high and the fade line reopens the 1.3259 Asian high, then the 1.3272 pre-CPI high
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled catalyst for the post-CPI swing
05:46 UTC
Post-CPI recovery, pulling back in late Asia · RSI 55 · price 1.32402
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high, still above the 1.3230 swing low.
The Asia session extended the recovery off the 1.3137 post-CPI low to a 1.3259 Asian high as US yields reversed. Since 02:45 UTC price has drifted lower in a tight flag under a lower-high line and is holding above the 1.3230 swing low, which sits near the 23.6% retracement of the recovery.
Support: 1.3230, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32587, 1.32728
What it said to watch
UK GDP, IP and manufacturing at 06:00 UTC, about 15 minutes out, could materially shift this read into the London open
M15 close below the 1.3230 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low structure and exposes the 1.3200 range floor
Break of the lower-high line and a close above the 1.3259 Asian high reopens the 1.3273 pre-cpi high
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC are the next USD driver for this recovery
05:31 UTC
Recovery from CPI low, now in shallow pullback · RSI 54 · price 1.32435
Lower highs since 1.3259 Asian high, holding above 1.3242.
Late Asia session: GBPUSD rallied from 1.3182 as US yields reversed after the hot CPI selloff, but stalled with a rejection at the 1.3259 Asian high, where the pre-CPI range floor sat. Since then it has drifted lower in a tight band of lower highs. The pullback low at 1.3242 sits near the 23.6% of the Asia leg fib, and ATR has compressed to about 7–8 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3242, 1.3230, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3274
What it said to watch
UK GDP, IP and manufacturing at 06:00 UTC (~30 min, f/c -0.1%) could break the pre-London compression either way
M15 close below the 1.3242 pullback low exposes the 1.3230 swing low, the 38.2% of the Asia leg
M15 close above the 1.3259 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.3274 pre-cpi high
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC; a hot print puts the 1.3200 round number back in focus
05:16 UTC
Intraday recovery, momentum fading in late Asia · RSI 58 · price 1.32423
V-recovery from the CPI low, shallow pullback from the Asia high.
GBPUSD has retraced most of the hot US CPI drop to 1.3137. The Asia session pushed the recovery to the 1.3259 Asia high as the dollar faded. Late Asia shows a shallow pullback under a descending pullback line and slightly below EMA20, still holding above the 1.3230 swing low, which sits near the 23.6% of the CPI leg, ahead of UK GDP.
Support: 1.3230, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3274
What it said to watch
UK GDP, IP and manufacturing at 06:00 UTC (all f/c -0.1%) could materially shift this read within the hour
M15 close below the 1.3230 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3200 range floor
Close above the pullback line and the 1.3259 asia high reopens the 1.3274 pre-cpi high
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC are the next major risk to the CPI-leg recovery
HH/HL chain off 1.3137 CPI low; tight pullback under session high.
The post-CPI recovery from 1.3137 ran through the Asia session to a 1.3259 session high as the USD reversal extended, stalling just under the pre-CPI range. Late Asia, price is drifting at the 1.3243 pullback low on the rising Asia trendline, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 8 pips.
Support: 1.32427, 1.32304
Resistance: 1.32587, 1.32745
What it said to watch
UK GDP/IP at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%), ahead of London open, could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3230 swing low breaks the Asia trendline and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.3259 session high puts the 1.3274 pre-CPI high back in play
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia HH/HL chain intact; lower highs since 1.3259 peak.
Asia session extended the rebound from the post-CPI 1.3137 low to a session high at 1.3259, retracing nearly 80% of the CPI drop before easing to 1.3245 around Pill's remarks. Price is sitting on the rising trendline and the 78.6% retrace, above the 1.3230 swing low, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.3239, 1.3230, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3271
What it said to watch
UK Aug GDP at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) could materially shift this read ahead of London open
M15 close below the trendline and 1.3230 swing low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain, exposing the 1.3200 round number
M15 close above the 1.3259 session high opens the path to the 1.3271 pre-cpi high
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC are the next USD driver
04:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below Asian high · RSI 54 · price 1.32445
Asia-session HH/HL chain from 1.3182 paused at 1.3259; shallow pullback.
Asia has retraced most of the hot-US-CPI selloff from 1.3137, climbing from 1.3182 to an Asian high at 1.3259 before stalling into late Asia. Price is now pulling back to the 23.6% fib near 1.3241 and sitting on EMA20, with the 1.3238 pullback low and the 1.3230 swing low below. Pill passed without a visible reaction.
Support: 1.3238, 1.3230, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3271
What it said to watch
UK Aug GDP and IP at 06:00 UTC, just before London open, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.3230 swing low breaks the Asian HL chain and exposes the 1.3200 round number
An M15 close above the 1.3259 Asian high opens the pre-CPI high at 1.3271
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC are the next USD driver
04:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asia high · RSI 61 · price 1.32486
HH/HL chain off the 1.3137 post-CPI low; tight pause under 1.3259.
The Asia session pushed the recovery from the hot US CPI selloff up to a 1.3259 Asia high. That retraces about 90% of the drop from the 1.3271 pre-CPI high to 1.3137. Price is now compressing just above the 1.3247 micro low and the rising trendline, with RSI(14) at 61 and ATR near 8.5 pips as London open approaches.
Support: 1.32471, 1.32304, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32587, 1.32714
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3247 micro low puts the rising trendline under test; losing the 1.3230 swing low (23.6% fib) breaks the HH/HL chain
Close above the 1.3271 pre-CPI high fully erases the CPI drop
Round number 1.3200 is the deeper floor if the recovery unwinds
UK Aug GDP at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) and US PPI/Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off the post-CPI low, ~88% of the CPI drop retraced.
The hot US CPI print knocked the pair from the 1.3271 pre-CPI high to 1.3137. It has since climbed in a steady HH/HL chain through the Asia session, which is now in its late hours. Price is compressing just under the 1.3259 Asia high, with the micro low at 1.3247 and the 1.3230 Asia pivot on the rising Asia trendline beneath. The 03:45 UTC bar was quiet, so Pill's 03:40 UTC slot left little visible mark.
Support: 1.3247, 1.3230, 1.3221
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3271, 1.3300
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3259 Asia high puts the 1.3271 pre-CPI high in play; reclaiming it fully erases the CPI drop, with the 1.3300 round number next
Failure to hold the 1.3247 micro low breaks the HL chain; a loss of the Asia trendline and 1.3230 Asia pivot exposes the 1.3221 Asia low
UK Aug GDP and IP at 06:00 UTC, about 2h away and before London open, could materially shift this read
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC are the next USD driver for the pair
03:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing under session high · RSI 64 · price 1.32498
HH/HL chain through Asia, retracing almost all of the CPI drop.
The rebound from the post-CPI 1.3137 low extended through the Asia session in a clean HH/HL chain, retracing most of the hot-CPI drop. Price is stalling just below the 1.3259 session high, with the 1.3271 pre-CPI high above. The higher low at 1.3238 and the 1.3230 swing low mark the nearest supports, and RSI(14) at 64 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 1.3238, 1.3230, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3271
What it said to watch
BoE's Pill at 03:40 UTC, then UK GDP and production at 06:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
A close above the 1.3259 session high puts the 1.3271 pre-CPI high in play
Losing the 1.3238 higher low, then the 1.3230 swing low, breaks the Asian HH/HL chain and the asia trend line
Back below the 1.3200 round number puts the move back inside the post-CPI range
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC are the next USD-side driver
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, near-full recovery of CPI drop · RSI 66 · price 1.32486
HH/HL chain through Asia session, rally pausing below session high.
The hot US CPI print knocked the pair from the pre-CPI high at 1.3271 to 1.3137 during NY hours. The Asia session has since retraced about 90% of that drop in a clean HH/HL chain along a rising trendline, with the latest bar easing back from the 1.3259 session high. RSI(14) at 66 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.3246, 1.3230, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3271
What it said to watch
M15 close below the trendline near 1.3246, then the 1.3230 swing low, breaks the HH/HL chain
Close above the 1.3259 session high exposes the pre-CPI high at 1.3271
1.3200 psych level is the deeper floor if the Asia rally unwinds
BoE's Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC are the next USD driver
Higher-low chain through Asia, pressing session high.
The Asia session extended the rebound from the post-US CPI low at 1.3137 to an Asia high at 1.3259, retracing nearly 90% of the CPI drop on a clean higher-low chain along the rising trendline. RSI(14) near 73 is hot but not extreme. The pre-CPI high at 1.3271 and the prior high at 1.3275 sit just overhead.
Support: 1.32384, 1.32121, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32587, 1.32714, 1.3275
What it said to watch
BoE's Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK Aug GDP at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) could materially shift this read
Close above 1.3271 pre-cpi high, then 1.3275 prior high, fully erases the CPI drop
Break below the 1.3238 swing low and the rising trendline ends the Asia higher-low chain
Failure there exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3212 and the 1.3200 psych level
03:01 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 72 · price 1.32492
HH/HL chain through Asia; post-CPI recovery leg ~84% retraced.
Asia session has extended the recovery leg off Wednesday's post-CPI low at 1.3137, a HH/HL chain lifting price to a session high at 1.3249, now about 84% of the CPI drop retraced. 1.3249 has capped twice in the last hour, while the swing low at 1.3230 and the higher low at 1.3221 hold the rising trendline; RSI(14) near 72.
Support: 1.3230, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3257, 1.3271
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3257 (pre-CPI low) puts price back in Wednesday's pre-CPI range, with the 1.3271 pre-CPI high next
Break below the 1.3230 swing low and the rising trendline ends the HH/HL chain; 1.3221 higher low then 1.3200 round number below
BoE's Pill at 03:40 UTC: pushback on hike pricing could materially shift this read
UK Aug GDP and production at 06:00 UTC, around London open, a likely catalyst for a break of the session high or the rising trendline
02:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum stalling at session high · RSI 69 · price 1.32412
Asian higher-low chain off 1.3221; rejection at 1.3249 session high.
The Asian session extended the CPI recovery from the 1.3137 post-CPI low to a session high at 1.3249. Higher lows off the 1.3221 swing low keep the rising support intact. The 02:15 UTC bar rejected the session high, with the London low at 1.3257 sitting just overhead. That level was the floor before the hot US CPI print triggered the slide.
Support: 1.3230, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3249, 1.3257, 1.3271
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.3230 higher low and the rising support line ends the Asian HL chain. The 1.3200 round number sits below.
An M15 close above the 1.3249 session high exposes the 1.3257 London low and the 1.3271 pre-CPI high.
BoE's Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into late Asia · RSI 79 · price 1.32485
HH/HL chain through Asia session, pressing 1.3250.
The Asia session added a roughly 65-pip HH/HL climb to the post-CPI rebound. The latest bar cleared the 1.3245 prior high and has now retraced more than 78.6% of the CPI drop, a stronger rebound than the digest's two-fifths figure. RSI(14) near 79 is hot, and the 1.3250 psych level and the 1.3271 pre-CPI high sit directly overhead.
Support: 1.3245, 1.3230, 1.3220
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3271
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3245 prior high would mark the push as a false break
Loss of the 1.3230 swing low and the Asia trendline breaks the HH/HL chain, with fib 61.8 at 1.3220 next
Acceptance above the 1.3250 psych level puts the 1.3271 pre-CPI high in play, which would erase the CPI drop
BoE's Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read into the London open
Higher lows off the post-CPI low at 1.3137; lower highs since the 1.3245 Asia high.
The hot US CPI drove cable to 1.3137 during NY hours. The Asia session has since retraced roughly 80% of that drop, topping at the 1.3245 Asia high at 01:00 UTC, with lower highs and RSI(14) cooling to ~72 since. Nearest support is the 1.3229 swing low, then the 1.3221 pullback low and the recovery line near 1.3219.
Support: 1.3229, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3275
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3245 Asia high resumes the higher-high chain and opens the 1.3275 prior high (pre-CPI peak)
Break below the 1.3221 pullback low and the recovery line exposes the 1.3200 range floor, near the 38.2% fib of the post-CPI recovery
BoE Pill speaks at 03:40 UTC (~1.5h); further pushback on hike pricing could shift this read
UK Aug GDP, IP and manufacturing at 06:00 UTC (~4h), each f/c -0.1%
Asia HH/HL chain off 1.3182, tight 1.3233–1.3245 pause.
Asia session has carried the post-CPI recovery from 1.3182 to a 1.3245 asian high, retracing about 75% of the hot-CPI drop and stalling at the 78.6% fib. Higher lows at 1.3221 (61.8% fib) and 1.3229 define the rising trendline. RSI(14) is cooling from overbought as the last hour compresses.
Support: 1.3229, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32452, 1.32714
What it said to watch
Break of the rising trendline and the 1.3229 higher low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.3221, then the 1.3200 range floor
M15 close above the 1.3245 asian high / 78.6% fib opens the path to the 1.3271 pre-cpi high
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) could materially shift this read
Asia HH/HL chain retracing the post-CPI drop, stalling at 78.6%.
The Asia session has extended the recovery from Wednesday's 1.3137 post-US CPI low to a 1.3245 session high, now about 78.6% of the CPI drop retraced. Higher lows have stepped up since the NY close. RSI(14) near 79 is stretched, and two tests of 1.3245 show the advance stalling below the London low at 1.3257.
Support: 1.3229, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3257, 1.3271
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3245 session high and the 1.3257 London low opens the path to the 1.3271 pre-CPI high.
A close below the 1.3229 higher low and the 61.8% fib at 1.3221 breaks the Asia HH/HL chain and exposes the 1.3200 round number.
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK Aug GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
The Asia session extended the rebound from the 1.3137 post-CPI low. Price reclaimed the 1.3200 range floor and printed a session high at 1.3245, near the 78.6% retrace of the hot-CPI drop. RSI(14) around 84 is stretched; the higher low at 1.3221 and the swing low at 1.3229 sit on the rising Asia trendline.
Support: 1.3229, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3271
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3229 swing low and the Asia trendline breaks the HL chain; 1.3221 higher low next
Loss of the 1.3200 range floor reopens the 38.2% retrace near 1.3204–1.3191
Close above the 1.3245 session high exposes the 1.3271 pre-cpi high
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 85 · price 1.32398
Steep HH/HL chain through Asia, rebound from post-CPI low.
The Asia session extended the rebound from the 1.3137 post-CPI low. Price reclaimed the 1.3200 range floor and printed an asia high at 1.3245, near the 78.6% retracement of the CPI drop. Dips held at a 1.3229 swing low above the 61.8% fib at 1.3221, but RSI(14) at 85 is stretched.
Support: 1.3229, 1.3221, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32452, 1.32714
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3229 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.3221 and the 1.3200 range floor
M15 close above the 1.3245 asia high opens the path to the 1.3271 pre-cpi high
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK Aug GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
01:01 UTC
Uptrend, overextended · RSI 83 · price 1.32342
HH/HL chain through Asia, retracing CPI drop.
The Asia session has extended the rebound from the post-CPI low at 1.3137. Price printed a session high at 1.3239, just under the 78.6% fib of the CPI drop, with RSI(14) near 83 stretched. Below sit the pullback low at 1.3221 and the 1.3200 round number. Above, the pre-CPI low near 1.3257 caps the move.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3200, 1.3182
Resistance: 1.32394, 1.32426, 1.3257
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 78.6% fib at 1.3243 opens the pre-CPI low at 1.3257
Failure to hold the 1.3221 pullback low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain and exposes the 1.3200 round number
Loss of the 1.3182 asia base would break the recovery trendline and unwind the rebound
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK Aug GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows through Asia, back above the 1.3200 range floor.
The hot US CPI print knocked cable from the 1.3271 pre-CPI high to 1.3137. Early Asia session has since extended the rebound from the 1.3185 asia base back through the 1.3200 range floor to a 1.3234 asia high. The first pullback held 1.3221, near the 61.8% of the CPI drop, with RSI(14) stretched around 84.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3200, 1.31848
Resistance: 1.32339, 1.32714
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3200 range floor puts the Asian reclaim in doubt and exposes the 1.3185 asia base
Break of the 1.3221 pullback low and the Asian trendline signals the advance is stalling
Clearance of the 1.3234 asia high opens the 78.6% of the CPI drop near 1.3243, then the 1.3271 pre-CPI high
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off post-CPI low, momentum hot · RSI 77 · price 1.32279
Higher highs and higher lows through Asia, pausing below 1.3234.
The hot US CPI print knocked cable from the 1.3271 pre-cpi high to 1.3137, and price has since climbed back along rising support. Early in the Asia session it is back above the 1.3200 range floor, stalling under the 1.3234 asia high with RSI(14) near 77. The first dip held a 1.3221 pullback low.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3200, 1.3182
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3271
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.3221 pullback low would be the first lower low of the Asia leg. The 38.2% recovery fib sits near 1.3197.
An M15 close back below the 1.3200 range floor and rising support undoes the recovery read. Below the 1.3182 rollover low, the Asia leg is fully retraced.
Clearance of the 1.3234 asia high exposes the 1.3271 pre-cpi high.
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK Aug GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
Post-CPI selloff retraced ~70%, steep higher-low chain in Asia.
The hot US CPI knocked cable from 1.3271 to an 11-month low at 1.3137 during NY hours. The Asia session has since retraced about 70% of that leg, reclaiming the 1.3200 range floor and the fib 61.8 at 1.3220. Price is now pressing the fib 78.6 at 1.3243, just under the pre-CPI London low band near 1.3256, with RSI(14) near 80.
Support: 1.3220, 1.3200, 1.3182
Resistance: 1.3243, 1.3256, 1.3275
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.3200 range floor returns the read to post-CPI weakness, with the asia low at 1.3182 next.
A break of the Asia rally trendline near 1.3215 would show momentum fading from overbought.
Acceptance above the fib 78.6 at 1.3243 and the london low at 1.3256 opens the prior high at 1.3275.
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
The hot US CPI print knocked cable from the 1.3271 pre-cpi high to 1.3137. Price has since retraced about 68% of that drop, reclaiming 1.3200 psych and the 61.8% fib at 1.3220 in early Asia, with RSI(14) at 80 after nine bars of higher highs. The recovery line holds from the 1.3182 swing low. Overhead references are the 78.6% fib at 1.3243 and the london low at 1.3257, ahead of the pre-cpi high.
Support: 1.3220, 1.3200, 1.3182
Resistance: 1.3243, 1.3257, 1.3271
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.3200 psych returns price to the post-CPI range
Break of the 1.3182 swing low ends the higher-low chain on the recovery line
Acceptance above the 1.3257 london low reopens the pre-CPI range toward 1.3271
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read