V-shaped rebound from Wednesday's low, higher lows through Thursday.
Wednesday's London-NY transition selloff after Pill's push-back on a series of hikes carried the pair to a week low at 1.3137, but the entire leg has since been retraced through Asia and London on Thursday's UK GDP and production beats. A fading USD after the hot US PPI and retail sales then added to the move: the NY dip held at the thu low of 1.3231, and price now sits above the ema20 with RSI(14) near 60. The rebound is retesting the week high at 1.3275–1.3278, which capped Wednesday's Asia rally, with the round number at 1.3300 just above. Higher lows along the Thursday trendline remain intact.
Support: 1.3260, 1.3231, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the week high at 1.3278 opens the 1.3300 round number; a second rejection there leaves a double cap in place
Break of the Thursday higher-low trendline and the ema20 near 1.3260 would expose the thu low at 1.3231 and the 38.2% fib of the recovery near 1.3224
Bailey speaks Fri 02:00 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC, both in the Asia session, and either could materially shift this read
A move back below 1.3231 would reopen the path toward the 50% fib near 1.3207, with the week low at 1.3137 further out
1.3137–1.3278 weekly range; Thursday higher lows pressing the range top.
GBPUSD has fully retraced Wednesday's Pill-driven slide to the 1.3137 week low. The break below Monday's 1.3202 low proved a false break: UK GDP and production beats, then a USD fade after hot US PPI in the NY session, built a run of Thursday higher lows. Price now sits back at the 1.3275–1.3278 week high that also capped Tuesday, holding above a rising ema20 near 1.3257, while RSI(14) around 61 prints below its reading at Tuesday's high.
Support: 1.3257, 1.3230, 1.3182
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3278 week high opens the 1.3300 round number and the digest's range top
Bailey speaks Fri 02:00 UTC (~4h) and Warsh at 03:30 UTC; either could materially shift this read at the range top
Loss of the Thursday higher lows trendline and ema20 near 1.3257 would expose the week open at 1.3230, close to the 38.2% recovery fib
Failure to hold the 1.3230 week open puts the 1.3182 day low and the 50% recovery fib near 1.3207 back in play
V-shaped reversal from Wednesday's low; higher lows through Thursday.
Wednesday's Pill-driven drop in the London session broke below the Monday–Tuesday 1.3202–1.3275 range to 1.3137, but the break failed. Thursday's sweep of UK data beats and a dollar that faded the hot US PPI retraced the entire leg from the 1.3182 day low. The PPI low at 1.3231 held into the NY session, and price now retests the 1.3278 week high above a rising EMA(20) near 1.3258, with RSI(14) at 66 and not yet stretched.
Support: 1.3258, 1.3231, 1.3182
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3300 round number would clear the week high and the 1.3280–1.3300 range top
A third stall at the 1.3278 week high, following Wednesday's 1.3275 and Thursday's 1.3276, would leave a capped top in place
Loss of the ema20 and then the 1.3231 ppi low breaks Thursday's higher-low trendline
BoE's Bailey (Fri 02:00 UTC) and Fed Chair Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 1.3137 week low; equal highs at 1.3275-1.3278 capping.
GBPUSD has fully retraced the Pill drop from Wednesday's NY session, when price fell to the 1.3137 week low. Thursday's clean sweep of UK data beats, plus a dollar that faded the hot US PPI, carried price back to the 1.3275-1.3278 week high cluster, the same area that capped Wednesday's Asia session. The PPI-hour dip to 1.3231 recovered within the NY session and set another higher low. Price now holds above EMA(20) near 1.3252, with RSI(14) at 63, short of overbought.
Support: 1.3252, 1.3231, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3278 week high and the 1.3300 round number would break the week's range top
Failure to hold the 1.3231 ppi low would break the higher lows and reopen the 61.8% retrace near 1.3191
Loss of EMA(20) at 1.3252 would point to the recovery stalling at the week high
Bailey (Fri 02:00 UTC) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) during the Asia session could materially shift this read; a dovish Bailey puts the 1.3137 week low back in view
Wednesday low fully retraced; double test of 1.3275-1.3276 with Thursday lows rising.
Wednesday's NY-session flush to 1.3137 on Pill's dovish framing undercut Monday's 1.3202 low, then fully reversed. That makes it a false break, and the recovery leg has retraced the whole drop. Thursday's UK data beats drove the London advance, and the post-PPI dip into the 1.3231 Thursday lows was absorbed during NY hours as USD slid on lower yields. Price now sits on the week high at 1.3276, the second test after Wednesday's Asia-session peak, with a rising EMA(20) near 1.3253 underneath and RSI(14) at 66.
Support: 1.3253, 1.3231, 1.3182
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3276 week high opens the 1.3300 round number, the range top flagged in the macro read
A second rejection at 1.3276 leaves a double-top profile; a break below the 1.3231 Thursday lows and the recovery trendline reopens the 1.3182 day low
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 1.3253 keep the recovery structure intact
BoE's Bailey (Fri 02:00 UTC) and Fed Chair Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read in Asia hours
18:01 UTC
Sharp recovery, stalling at week high · RSI 61 · price 1.32714
V-shaped rebound from 1.3137, consolidating 1.3231-1.3276 under a double test of the week high.
GBPUSD has retraced all of Wednesday's Pill-driven slide from 1.3275 to the 1.3137 week low. The UK data beats, and a dollar that faded after the hot US PPI, carried price back above the 1.3225 weekly open and EMA(20). Thursday's London high at 1.3276 matches Wednesday's week high, and the dip to the thu low at 1.3231 on the US releases was absorbed during NY hours, leaving price consolidating just under that level with RSI(14) near 61 and the 1.3300 round number overhead.
Support: 1.3253, 1.3231, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3276 week high clears the double test and puts the 1.3300 round number in play
Loss of the 1.3231 thu low exposes the weekly open and 38.2% recovery fib near 1.3223
Repeated closes back below EMA(20) at 1.3253 would mark the range-top retest as a rejection
Bailey (Fri 02:00 UTC) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) during Asia hours could materially shift this read
A slide back under 1.3184 would return focus to the 1.3137 week low
Full retrace of Wed drop; equal highs capping, NY range 1.3231-1.3273.
Wednesday's Pill-driven slide to the 1.3137 week low has been fully retraced. Thursday's recovery leg began in the Asia session and extended into London on the sweep of UK data beats, helped by a USD that faded after the hot PPI. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.3244 with RSI(14) in the mid-50s. The 1.3275-1.3276 week high has now rejected tests on both Wednesday and Thursday, and the NY session has chopped inside a 1.3231 NY low to 1.3273 range.
Support: 1.3244, 1.3231, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3276 week high breaks the equal-highs cap and puts the 1.3300 round number in play
Loss of EMA(20) and the 1.3231 NY low breaks the recovery line of higher lows and opens a deeper retracement of the recovery leg toward 1.3220
Bailey (Fri 02:00 UTC) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read during the Asia session; Hammack at 20:30 UTC today is a lesser risk
A return toward the 1.3137 week low would put Wednesday's low back as the reference level
16:02 UTC
Range-bound, rebound stalling under week high · RSI 56 · price 1.32503
1.3200–1.3275 range after Wednesday false break to 1.3137, now pressing the top.
GBPUSD has spent the week inside 1.3200–1.3275. Wednesday's Pill-driven slide during the London-NY transition broke the Monday low and set a week low at 1.3137, but it turned into a false break as the Asian session and then London, helped by the broad UK GDP/IP beat, retraced nearly the whole move. The week high at 1.3275 has now capped three tests: Wednesday's Asian session high, Thursday's London high and the NY bounce after the hot PPI print. The PPI spike low at 1.3231 held and price is back above EMA(20) near 1.3242, while RSI(14) has eased into the mid-50s under resistance.
Support: 1.3231, 1.3225, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3275, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3275 week high breaks the range and opens the 1.3300 range top
Failure to hold the 1.3231 ppi low exposes the weekly open at 1.3225, which sits on the 38.2% rebound fib
BoE's Bailey (Fri 02:00 UTC) and Fed Chair Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) land in the Asian session and could materially shift this read
A return below 1.3200 would put the 1.3137 week low back in focus and undo the false-break read
15:01 UTC
Sharp rebound, pressing the week high · RSI 61 · price 1.32624
V-shaped recovery from Wednesday's low with higher lows; testing the week high inside a 1.3137–1.3276 range.
Wednesday's slide to the 1.3137 week low came during NY hours after Pill's dovish remarks. It has been fully retraced: the UK data beat drove a London-session leg up, and USD softness after the hot PPI added to it, carrying price back to the 1.3276 week high, where the first test drew a rejection. The post-PPI dip held the PPI low at 1.3231, above the weekly open at 1.3225, so the rebound trendline of higher lows is intact, with price above EMA(20) near 1.3242 and RSI(14) around 61.
Support: 1.3231, 1.3225, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3276 week high would break the range read and expose the 1.3300 range top
Loss of the 1.3231 PPI low and the rebound trendline returns price to the weekly open at 1.3225 and opens a deeper rebound retracement
Bailey (Fri 02:00 UTC) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) speak during the Asia session and could materially shift this read
A move back toward the 1.3137 week low would put the double-test of the week high in focus as a ceiling
14:01 UTC
V-shaped rebound, stalling at week high · RSI 60 · price 1.32515
Full retrace of Wednesday's drop; equal highs near 1.3275 capping.
Wednesday's London-afternoon slide on Pill's dovish remarks ran from 1.3275 to the 1.3137 week low. The Asia and London sessions then fully retraced it, helped by the broad UK GDP and production beat. Thursday's London-morning push printed a 1.3276 week high, matching Wednesday's top before rejection. The hot US PPI and retail sales dump in the first hour of NY knocked price to a 1.3231 post-PPI low, briefly piercing EMA(20) at 1.3239 before it recovered to 1.3250, with RSI(14) holding near 60.
Support: 1.3239, 1.3231, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3276 week high invalidates the double top and opens the 1.3300 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3231 PPI low and EMA(20) breaks the rebound trendline and exposes the 38.2% rebound fib near 1.3223
BoE's Bailey (Fri 02:00 UTC) and Fed's Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) in the Asia session could materially shift this read
A move back toward the 1.3137 week low would put the whole Thursday recovery in question
13:02 UTC
Sharp rebound, momentum fading at week high · RSI 51 · price 1.32464
V-recovery from 1.3137 low capped by a double high at 1.3276.
Wednesday's slide on Pill's dovish remarks, which began just before the NY open, took GBPUSD from the 1.3275 week high to the 1.3137 YTD low. The broad UK data beat then drove a full retrace through Asia and London on Thursday, back to 1.3276. That retest was rejected at the week high, and RSI(14) peaked near 54 against roughly 70 at Wednesday's matching high, a bearish divergence. Price has eased to the 23.6% retracement of the rebound near 1.3243, still above the ema20 at 1.3237 and the 1.3225 weekly open, with the hot US PPI print landing in the current bar.
Support: 1.3237, 1.3225, 1.3201
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3276 week high clears the double high and opens the 1.3300 range top
Failure to hold the 1.3237 ema20 and 1.3225 weekly open (near the 38.2% of the rebound) exposes the 1.3201 monday low
Hot US PPI (6.3% y/y vs 5.3%) is still being absorbed in the current bar
BoE's Bailey (Fri 02:00 UTC) and Fed's Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off Wednesday's low, capped twice at 1.3275-76.
Wednesday's NY-session slide on the hot US CPI cut through the weekly open to 1.3137, but the move has fully reversed as US yields fell. Thursday's UK GDP and IP beat lifted price to 1.3276 at London open, a retest of the week high set early Wednesday, and that second test was rejected. Price is now rotating between the 1.3247 London low and the 1.3259 Asia high, holding above EMA(20) near 1.3233 and the recovery trendline, with RSI(14) easing to the low 60s.
Support: 1.3247, 1.3233, 1.3225
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.3276 week high clears the double rejection, with the 1.3300 round number next
Loss of the recovery trendline and 1.3233 ema20 exposes the 1.3225 weekly open and the 38.2% fib of the recovery leg near 1.3223
BoE Governor Bailey speaks Fri 02:00 UTC, the next GBP-specific risk to this structure
11:01 UTC
Sharp recovery, stalling at week high · RSI 57 · price 1.32598
Higher lows off CPI low, inside 1.3137–1.3276 range.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print drove a near 140-pip NY-session slide to a 1.3137 week low. The move fully reversed as Treasury yields slumped, and Asia and London extended the recovery after today's UK GDP and production beats, leaving the CPI low as a false break of Monday's 1.3202 base. Price sits back above EMA(20) near 1.3236 and is testing Wednesday's 1.3276 week high, where this morning's London push left an upper-wick rejection; RSI(14) in the mid-50s is well short of overbought.
Support: 1.3233, 1.3225, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3276, 1.3300
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core PPI would test the recovery trendline
H1 close above the 1.3276 week high breaks the double-test cap and opens the 1.3300 round number
Failure to hold today's London low at 1.3233 and the 1.3225 weekly open brings the 38.2% recovery fib near 1.3223 into play
A slide back toward the 1.3137 week low would undo the false-break read
BoE Governor Bailey Fri 02:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:01 UTC
Range, sharp V-recovery into the top · RSI 69 · price 1.32591
CPI spike below 1.3200 floor fully retraced; higher lows into range top.
The hot US CPI print knocked GBPUSD from the 1.3275 week high to the 1.3137 cpi low during Wednesday's NY session. That spike through the 1.3200 floor became a false break once US yields slid, and the beat in UK August GDP data extended the recovery past the 78.6% retracement of the CPI drop fib. Price now sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 69, pressing today's 1.3268 high just under the week high, where the 1.3260–1.3280 range top has capped price all week.
Support: 1.3233, 1.3225, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3268, 1.3275
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3275 week high breaks the weekly range top
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
Loss of the 1.3233 pullback low breaks the rebound lows trendline and exposes the 1.3225 week open
BoE Bailey Fri 02:00 UTC is a risk for the 1.3260–1.3280 cap
Post-CPI break below range floor fully reversed; tight consolidation above EMAs.
The hot US CPI print knocked GBPUSD from 1.3266 to a week low at 1.3137 in Wednesday's NY session. The slide below the 1.3200 range floor was fully retraced as US yields reversed, and the rebound carried through the Asia session to 1.3259. That rebound high sits just past the 78.6% fib of the CPI drop. Price has since held a 1.3233–1.3255 band through the London open, just above Monday's 1.3225 open, with only a muted response to the broad UK data beat. It is resting on the recovery trendline, with EMA(20) and EMA(50) converging near 1.3229 and RSI(14) cooled to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.3233, 1.3229, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3275
What it said to watch
H1 close below the London-open low at 1.3233 and the ema20 near 1.3229 breaks the recovery trendline
Clearance of the rebound high at 1.3259 brings the week high at 1.3275 and the 1.3280 range cap into view
A return below the 1.3200 range floor would undo the false-break read and re-expose the 1.3137 low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read; Bailey speaks Fri 02:00 UTC
V-shaped rebound capped at a lower high below the week high.
The hot US CPI print drove a 138-pip slide from Wednesday's 1.3275 week high to 1.3137 during NY hours, a false break of the 1.3200 range floor. A yield-led reversal then retraced almost 80% of the drop into Thursday's 1.3259 Asia high. Price has since consolidated around the 78.6% retracement near 1.3245, with EMA(20) rising at 1.3228 and RSI(14) easing to the mid-50s. The UK GDP beat at 06:00 UTC drew only a brief dip to the 1.3233 session low, with the 1.3259–1.3275 lower highs still capping.
Support: 1.3233, 1.3228, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3275
What it said to watch
An hourly close above the 1.3259 asia high, and then the 1.3275 week high, would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3233 session low and the ema20 near 1.3228 (61.8% at 1.3222) exposes the 1.3200 range floor
BoE Breeden at 08:45 UTC: a dovish echo of Pill could cap the rebound
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot pair would revive the CPI-day pressure
07:01 UTC
Range, V-recovery from CPI low now stalling · RSI 52 · price 1.3241
CPI spike below range floor fully reclaimed; lower high under week high.
The hot US CPI print knocked GBPUSD from near the 1.3275 week high to a 1.3137 week low during Wednesday's NY session. The dollar faded as yields reversed, and the pair retraced almost all of the CPI drop through the Asia session, reaching a 1.3259 rebound high. The break below the 1.3202 range floor now reads as a false break. Since that peak, price has slipped below the recovery trendline and is hovering near the 78.6% retracement around 1.3245. The early reaction to the UK GDP beat has been muted, with EMA(20) at 1.3227 just underneath and RSI(14) back to a neutral 52.
Support: 1.3227, 1.3202, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3275
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot cluster puts the 1.3202 range floor back in play
BoE Breeden at 08:45 UTC echoing Pill's dovish tilt would pressure the ema20 at 1.3227
Hourly close below ema20 1.3227 confirms the recovery trendline break and exposes the range floor at 1.3202
Failure to hold 1.3202 reopens the 1.3137 week low
Close above the 1.3259 rebound high brings the 1.3275 week high back into view
1.3200–1.3275 weekly range; CPI break below floor reclaimed, lower high at 1.3259.
Hotter US CPI broke the range floor during Wednesday's NY session. The flush ran to a 1.3137 week low before falling US yields drove a V-shaped recovery through the Asia session. The rebound retraced nearly 90% of the drop but was rejected at the 1.3259 Asia high, which matches Tuesday's peak. Price now sits on the recovery line just under the 78.6% CPI drop fib, above EMA(20) near 1.3224 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) cooling to 57.
Support: 1.3224, 1.3202, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3275
What it said to watch
UK GDP at 06:00 UTC and US PPI/Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.3259 Asia high reopens the 1.3275 week high, the pre-CPI top
H1 close below EMA(20) at 1.3224 breaks the recovery line and exposes the 1.3202 range floor
Failure to hold the range floor puts the 1.3137 week low back in play
05:01 UTC
V-shaped recovery after CPI flush, back inside range · RSI 59 · price 1.32489
False break below week range fully reclaimed; higher lows since NY Wednesday.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print knocked the pair from the 1.3275 week high to a 1.3137 week low during the NY session. The CPI drop has since been about 80% retraced along a steady recovery line of higher lows as US yields reversed and the dollar faded into Thursday's Asia session. Price sits back inside the 1.3200–1.3275 range held all week, above EMA(20) and EMA(50) clustered near 1.3224, with RSI(14) back to ~59 and the Asia high at 1.3259 the first cap.
Support: 1.3224, 1.3200, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3259, 1.3275, 1.3300
What it said to watch
UK GDP, industrial and manufacturing output at 06:00 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC are a second volatility window for the CPI round-trip
H1 close back below the ema20 near 1.3224 breaks the recovery line and puts the 1.3200 range floor in focus
Failure to hold the 1.3200 range floor reopens the 1.3137 week low
H1 close above the 1.3275 week high opens the 1.3300 range top; rejection at the 1.3259 asia high keeps price mid-range
04:01 UTC
Sharp recovery after CPI drop, back inside range · RSI 63 · price 1.3256
False break of 1.3200 range floor; higher lows since CPI low.
The hot US CPI print in the first hour of NY on Wednesday knocked GBP/USD from the 1.3275 week high to a 1.3137 CPI low. That marked a false break of the 1.3200 range floor, and higher lows along the recovery line have since retraced close to 90% of the CPI drop fib through the NY afternoon and the Asia session. Price now sits above EMA(20) near 1.3221 and is testing the pre-CPI area around 1.3260, with RSI(14) near 63 and short of overbought.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3200, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3261, 1.3275, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3275 week high opens the path to the 1.3300 range top
Rejection at the pre-CPI area near 1.3260 plus a break of the recovery line puts EMA(20) at 1.3221, also the 61.8% of the CPI drop fib, back in focus
Loss of the 1.3200 range floor would expose the 1.3137 CPI low and undo the false-break read
UK Aug GDP at 06:00 UTC and US PPI/Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Range, recovering from the CPI flush · RSI 54 · price 1.32319
False break below 1.3200 reclaimed; higher lows off the 1.3137 low.
Hot US CPI on Wednesday knocked GBPUSD from the 1.3275 week high to a 1.3137 low during NY hours. That move was a false break of the 1.3200 range floor, reclaimed into the Asian session as RSI(14) recovered from oversold near 19 to around 54. The rebound stalled at the 78.6% fib (1.3245), and price now holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50), with the 61.8% fib at 1.3222 and the recovery trendline as the first supports under the bounce.
Support: 1.3222, 1.3202, 1.31367
Resistance: 1.32452, 1.3275, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3200 range floor would undo the false-break read and expose the 1.3137 cpi low
Acceptance above the 78.6% fib at 1.3245 opens the week high at 1.3275, then the 1.3300 range top
Loss of the recovery trendline and the 61.8% fib at 1.3222 would mark the bounce as fading
BoE's Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK Aug GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read; US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC follow
02:01 UTC
Sharp V-recovery after CPI flush, testing prior range · RSI 55 · price 1.32344
Range floor break reversed; higher lows since Wednesday's NY low.
The hot US CPI print hit during Wednesday's NY session and drove the CPI drop from the 1.3275 week high to 1.3137, breaking below the 1.3200 range floor and the Monday low. The late-NY and Asia recovery has retraced roughly 70% of that move on a run of higher lows, reclaiming the weekly open at 1.3225 and EMA(20) near 1.3215. RSI(14) has rebuilt to about 55 from the high-teens, and price is pressing the Asia high at 1.3239 below Tuesday's 1.3259 high. So far the break under the floor reads as a false break.
Support: 1.3225, 1.3215, 1.3202
Resistance: 1.3239, 1.3259, 1.3275
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the weekly open at 1.3225 and the ema20 near 1.3215 would weaken the false break read
Failure to hold the Monday low at 1.3202 (range floor) and the recovery higher lows reopens the 1.3137 week low
A close above the Asia high at 1.3239 and then the Tuesday high at 1.3259 puts the 1.3275 week high back in play
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read into the London session
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC are the next test of the CPI drop recovery
01:01 UTC
Sharp post-CPI recovery inside the weekly range · RSI 54 · price 1.32299
1.3200–1.3275 range; CPI spike below the floor reclaimed.
Cable rotated between the 1.3200 range floor and Monday's London-open high near 1.3261 early in the week, then set the week high at 1.3275 in Wednesday's Asia session. The hot US CPI print hit in the NY session and drove a 138-pip slide to a 1.3137 cpi low. Since then a steep recovery line has carried price back above the weekly open at 1.3225 and both EMAs, past 61.8% of the cpi drop fib, with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s and the prior close at 1.3235 the first cap.
Support: 1.32253, 1.3200, 1.31367
Resistance: 1.32354, 1.32612, 1.3275
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the weekly open at 1.3225 and the 1.3200 range floor would void the false break and put the 1.3137 cpi low back in play
Loss of the steep recovery line from the CPI low (near 1.3205 now) would turn the rebound into a lower-high sequence
Acceptance above the prior close at 1.3235 opens the Monday high at 1.3261, then the week high at 1.3275
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK Aug GDP at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC are the next USD test after CPI
1.3200 range floor broken on CPI, price back testing it at the 50% retrace.
Cable held the 1.3200–1.3275 band from Sunday's open and printed the week high at 1.3275 in Wednesday's Asian session. The hot US CPI (3.7% y/y vs 3.6%, core 0.3% m/m) then drove a ~135-pip slide through the range floor into NY hours, reaching the 1.3137 cpi low with RSI(14) oversold near 22. The recovery since has formed higher lows and retraced about 50% of the CPI drop. Price now sits back on the 1.3200 range floor, just under EMA(20) at 1.3208, with RSI(14) back at 47 and ATR expanded to ~15 pips.
Support: 1.3200, 1.3182, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3208, 1.3225, 1.3275
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3225 week open would turn the CPI break into a false break of the range floor
Rejection at ema20 and a loss of the 1.3182 swing low breaks the recovery line and exposes the 1.3137 cpi low
BoE Pill at 03:40 UTC and UK Aug GDP at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) could decide the hold of the range floor
US PPI, Retail Sales and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could extend or unwind the CPI drop; the week high at 1.3275 is the range top