Higher highs since Wed low; pullback from week high.
Wednesday's NY-session flush to the 1.3137 YTD low followed dovish BoE commentary. Price then reversed into a stair-step of higher highs as UK data beats and a softer USD carried it through the Thu high at 1.3278 during Friday's Asia–London trade. The push to a 1.3371 week high around the NY open met rejection, dropping back below the 1.3350 round number and cutting the rally line from Wednesday's low; price now sits on EMA(20) near 1.3316 with RSI(14) in the mid-50s, while the Friday low at 1.3310 holds just above the 23.6% fib of the week's impulse.
Support: 1.3310, 1.3278
Resistance: 1.3350, 1.3371, 1.3435
What it said to watch
H1 close below the Friday low at 1.3310 exposes the 38.2% fib and Thu high zone near 1.3280
Reclaim of the 1.3350 round number and a break of the 1.3371 week high would bring next resistance at 1.3435 into focus
Weekend IMF meeting headlines risk a gap at Monday's open
UK labour data Tue Oct 20 06:00 UTC and UK CPI Wed could materially shift this read
V-shaped recovery from Wed low into higher highs; Friday NY reversal broke the rising trendline.
GBPUSD reversed Wednesday's NY-session flush to the 1.3137 YTD low. UK data beats and a sliding USD carried the pair through Thursday's 1.3278 prior high early Friday and on to a 1.3371 week high in the first hour of NY. That high was rejected sharply, and a 57-pip unwind back below the 1.3350 breakout broke the rising trendline from Thursday's low. Price now sits on EMA(20) near 1.3313, at the 23.6% retracement of the Wednesday-to-Friday advance, with RSI(14) cooled to the mid-50s.
Support: 1.3311, 1.3278, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3350, 1.3371
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3311 swing low opens the 38.2% fib near 1.3282 and the 1.3278 prior high
Loss of the 1.3231 thu low would break the higher-low sequence from Wednesday's low
Reclaiming the 1.3350 breakout puts the 1.3371 week high back in play
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC and UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the digest flags a soft print as the larger downside risk
V-reversal from Wednesday's low into higher highs and higher lows.
Cable has recovered roughly 220 pips from Wednesday's NY-session YTD low at 1.3137. The rebound began on Thursday's UK GDP and production beats and broadened as the dollar slid on dovish Fed talk and lower yields. The 1.3275 breakout area capped Tuesday and Thursday; it gave way in Friday's Asia session, and London plus the first hour of NY extended the move to a new week high near 1.3360. Price is holding well above EMA(20) at around 1.3320, with RSI(14) near 79. Friday's only pullback held at 1.3328 before the NY open leg.
Support: 1.3328, 1.3275, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3360, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3328 pullback low breaks Friday's higher-low sequence and the rising support line
Return below the 1.3275 breakout, near the 38.2% fib of the week's rally, would mark a false break
Thu NY low at 1.3231, near the 61.8% fib, is the last higher low of the reversal; losing it unwinds the structure
Week high at 1.3360 and the 1.3400 round number are the next upside markers with RSI stretched
US Monthly Budget Statement at 18:00 UTC and the weekly close could shift the read; UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC is the next major GBP risk
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3137 low; Thursday high broken.
Cable has carried a two-day reversal from Wednesday's 1.3137 low, the drop that followed dovish Pill comments, with a rising trendline of higher lows since Thursday's 1.3231 low. The thu high at 1.3278 gave way in Friday's Asian session, and the London session extended to a week high at 1.3349 as lower US yields kept the dollar heavy despite hot US data. Price is holding above the round number at 1.3300 and an EMA(20) near 1.3306. RSI(14) is in the mid-70s, and the first NY-hours dip held at 1.3328.
Support: 1.3300, 1.3278, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3349, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3278 thu high puts the breakout in question and brings the 38.2% fib of the Wednesday-to-Friday rally near 1.3268 into play
A break of the rising trendline and a loss of the 1.3300 round number would end the higher-low sequence on this timeframe
Close above the 1.3349 week high opens the path to the 1.3400 round number
Fed-speak at the weekend IMF meetings (Oct 17–18) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 1.3231 thu low would unwind most of the rally
Higher lows since Wednesday low, breakout above 1.3278.
GBPUSD has fully reversed Wednesday's NY-session slide to the 1.3137 low. Price printed higher lows through Thursday, then cleared the 1.3278 breakout level (Wednesday and Thursday highs) across Friday's Asia and London sessions. UK data beats and a softer USD drove the move. London reached a week high at 1.3349 before stalling; price holds above EMA(20) near 1.3310 with RSI(14) around 78, overbought, and the rising trendline from Thursday's NY low plus the 1.3300 round number (23.6% fib of the Wednesday-Friday move) sit just below.
Support: 1.3310, 1.3300, 1.3278
Resistance: 1.3349, 1.3400
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 1.3278 breakout returns price to Thursday's range
Loss of the rising trendline and 1.3300 round number would be the first lower-low since Thursday
Acceptance above the 1.3349 week high opens the 1.3400 round number
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC is the next GBP-specific risk to the breakout
Higher lows since Wednesday's low; prior-high cap at 1.3278 cleared.
GBP/USD has fully retraced Wednesday's CPI-driven NY-session drop to 1.3137 and printed a 1.3349 week high. The latest leg started in Friday's Asia session and extended through London as the USD unwind continued after Thursday's faded US data. Price has cleared the 1.3277 prior high that capped Tuesday and Thursday and sits well above EMA(20) near 1.3298, which lines up with the rising trendline from Thursday's NY low, while RSI(14) near 74 is overbought after the run.
Support: 1.3298, 1.3277, 1.3243
Resistance: 1.3349, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.3277 prior high would turn Friday's breakout into a false break
Loss of the rising trendline and ema20 near 1.3300 would break the higher-low sequence since Wednesday
A close above the 1.3349 week high opens the path toward the 1.3400 psych level
A deeper pullback to the 50% fib of the Wed–Fri rally at 1.3243 would still leave the rebound structure intact
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today could materially shift this read; UK labour data Tue is the next GBP-specific risk
11:02 UTC
Uptrend, stretched after breakout · RSI 82 · price 1.33332
Higher highs and higher lows off Wednesday's 1.3137 low; Friday break above the 1.3275–1.3278 prior highs.
Wednesday's drop to 1.3137 came during the London-NY transition on Pill's dovish remarks, and it has fully reversed. Thursday's UK data beats and a softer USD after Warsh's comments carried price through the 1.3275–1.3278 prior high during today's Asia session, and London extended the move to a 1.3340 session high. Price sits about 40 pips above EMA(20), near 1.3293 and the 23.6% fib of the Wed low–Fri high leg, with RSI(14) at 82 in overbought territory. EMA(50) at 1.3266 marks the base of the breakout.
Support: 1.3293, 1.3278, 1.3266
Resistance: 1.3340, 1.3350
What it said to watch
A close back below the 1.3278 prior high would undercut the breakout and expose the 1.3266 ema50 area
An H1 close above the 1.3340 session high brings the 1.3350 round number into play
Loss of ema20 near 1.3293 with RSI(14) rolling off 80+ would mark the first meaningful pullback of the leg
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Tue UK labour data and Wed UK CPI are the next GBP catalysts, with stretched BoE pricing adding downside sensitivity
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's low, prior high broken.
GBP/USD has fully reversed Wednesday's NY-session slide to 1.3137 after the hot US CPI print. The rebound was driven by Thursday's UK data beats and a softer USD after Warsh gave no rate-path hint. Price cleared the 1.3277 prior high during Asia, held a 1.3291 asia low, and extended to a 1.3329 week high in early London, with a rising trendline from Thursday's 1.3231 thu low tracking the higher lows. Price sits above both EMA(20) and EMA(50), and RSI(14) is in overbought territory after a near-vertical move.
Support: 1.3291, 1.3277, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3329, 1.3350
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.3277 prior high would mark a false break of Friday's breakout
Loss of the 1.3291 asia low and the rising trendline near 1.3305 breaks the higher-low sequence; the 50% fib of the rebound sits near the 1.3231 thu low
Acceptance above the 1.3329 week high opens the 1.3350 round number
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today and UK labour data on Tue Oct 20 could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Uptrend, extending to week high · RSI 70 · price 1.33101
Higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3137 low; prior-high cap cleared.
Wednesday's NY-session flush to 1.3137 on hot US CPI and Pill's dovish remarks fully reversed after Thursday's UK GDP and production beats, with the US data run failing to lift USD and higher lows building along a rising-lows line from Thursday's 1.3231 dip. The 1.3275–1.3278 prior high capped Wednesday and Thursday before the Asia session cleared it, and London open extended to a 1.3325 week high before stalling. Price sits above EMA(20) near 1.3283 and the 1.3292 pullback low with RSI(14) near 70; the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday–Friday rally is at 1.3253.
Support: 1.3292, 1.3283, 1.3278
Resistance: 1.33245, 1.3350
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3278 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 1.3292 pullback low and EMA(20) breaks the rising-lows sequence and exposes the 38.2% retracement near 1.3253
Clearance of the 1.3325 week high opens the 1.3350 round number
US Industrial Production 13:15 UTC and Warsh remarks could shift the USD leg of this move into the NY session
UK labour data Tue and CPI Wed next week feed directly into BoE November hike pricing
08:01 UTC
Uptrend, stretched after breakout · RSI 73 · price 1.33121
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's low; 1.3300 range top cleared.
Wednesday's slide to 1.3137 came after Pill's dovish comments and has been fully reversed. Thursday's broad UK data beat and a heavy USD lifted the pair through the 1.3278 prior high, and the dip into the 1.3231 Thu NY low held as a higher low. Early on Friday the push cleared the 1.3300 range top and set a fresh week high at 1.3313, with price riding well above EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 73 in overbought territory.
Support: 1.3300, 1.3278, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3313, 1.3350
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 1.3300 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3278 prior high would break the higher-low sequence from the 1.3231 Thu NY low
A clean extension above the 1.3313 week high leaves the 1.3350 round number as the next reference
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh remarks today could materially shift the USD leg
A break of the higher-low trendline would signal the breakout momentum is fading
07:02 UTC
Uptrend, extended into 1.3300 · RSI 67 · price 1.32973
V-recovery from 1.3137 week low; higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday NY.
Wednesday's London-afternoon slide to the 1.3137 week low on Pill's modest-tightening comments fully reversed from late NY Wednesday. The recovery extended after Thursday's UK GDP and production beats, helped by a USD that faded hot PPI. Friday's Asia session cleared the 1.3278 prior high to a 1.3307 week high. Price now sits just under the 1.3300 round number, above EMA(20) near 1.3275 and EMA(50) near 1.3256, with pullbacks holding a rising trendline from the Thu NY low and RSI(14) cooling to the high 60s after the Asia spike.
Support: 1.3278, 1.3264, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3300, 1.3307
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3278 prior high would turn the Asia breakout into a false break and bring EMA(20) and the rising trendline into play
Acceptance above the 1.3307 week high puts price clear of the 1.3300 round number, the range top flagged in the macro read
Loss of Friday's 1.3264 day low breaks the rising trendline sequence; failure at the 1.3231 Thu NY low takes price through the 38.2% retracement of the Wed-Fri rally
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) and Warsh/IMF headlines could materially shift this read
06:01 UTC
Uptrend, extended after V-reversal · RSI 71 · price 1.33033
Higher lows since Wed low; 1.3278 cap cleared.
Wednesday's Pill-driven slide to the 1.3137 week low during London-NY hours was fully retraced by Thursday's Asia session as the USD sagged despite hot PPI. The pair then pressed against the 1.3275–1.3278 prior high four times from Wednesday to Thursday before clearing it in Friday's Asia session around Warsh, tagging a 1.3307 week high. Price sits above EMA(20), which has converged with that prior high near 1.3278, and RSI(14) has pushed into overbought near 71 at the top of the Wednesday-to-Friday leg.
Support: 1.3278, 1.3258, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.33065, 1.3350
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.3278 prior high would turn the Friday breakout into a false break
Break of the Thursday higher-lows trendline (around 1.3283) leaves the 1.3258 fib 38.2 and the 1.3231 thu low exposed
A sustained close above the 1.3307 week high opens the path toward the 1.3350 round number
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC (f/c 0.4%) could shift the read; recent hot US prints have been faded
Higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3137 low; Asia breakout above the 1.3278 prior high.
Wednesday's London-NY transition selloff on Pill's dovish remarks hit 1.3137, and the drop was fully retraced by Thursday's London session as UK GDP and output data beat. A soft USD that faded hot PPI kept the recovery going, and the NY dip to the 1.3231 Thu low was bought. Asia pushed through the 1.3278 prior high to a 1.3305 week high, with price holding at the 1.3300 handle above the weekly open and both EMAs. RSI(14) near 71 is stretched after the impulse.
Support: 1.3278, 1.3243, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3305
What it said to watch
Warsh speaking today: a hawkish lean that revives October Fed hike odds could stall the move at the 1.3305 week high
H1 close back below the 1.3278 prior high would mark the Asia breakout as a false break
A break of the higher-low trendline from the 1.3231 Thu low exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.3241 and the weekly open
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC is the main scheduled USD risk this session
V-shaped rebound from the 1.3137 week low into the 1.3275-1.3285 cap.
GBP/USD has fully retraced Wednesday's London-NY transition slide below Monday's 1.3202 low to the 1.3137 week low. It rebounded on Thursday's UK GDP beat and a softer USD as Treasury yields fell despite hot PPI, and the Thu low at 1.3231 held near the 38.2% fib of that rebound. Price is now retesting the 1.3275-1.3278 prior highs that capped Wednesday and Thursday's NY session, with the Asia session printing a marginal week high at 1.3285 just under the 1.3300 round number, holding above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 1.3276, 1.3264, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3285, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speech this Asia session: a hawkish lean that revives USD could stall the retest at the prior highs
H1 close back below the 1.3264 Asian low would mark the push above the prior highs as a false break
Sustained closes above the 1.3300 round number would extend the recovery beyond this week's range top
Loss of the 1.3231 Thu low, near the 38.2% fib, would break the higher-low sequence off the week low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
03:01 UTC
V-shaped recovery, now stalling below the week high · RSI 61 · price 1.32747
Tight consolidation under the 1.3275–1.3278 double cap after the full retrace of Wednesday's drop.
Wednesday's NY session flushed cable from 1.3275 to a 1.3137 week low after Pill's dovish-leaning remarks. Thursday's UK GDP beats and a yield-led USD slide, despite hot PPI, rebuilt the move through Asia, London and NY to a 1.3278 week high, with the PPI dip holding at 1.3231. Price now sits above the weekly open and EMA(20) in a narrow Asian range just under the 1.3275–1.3278 double cap. RSI(14) is near 61 and the hourly ranges are contracting.
Support: 1.3264, 1.3241, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.3278 week high exposes the 1.3300 range top
Rejection at the week high cap leaves a double cap with Wednesday's 1.3275
Break below the 1.3264 thu late low puts the 1.3241 weekly open back in focus
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC and UK CPI Wed are the next scheduled GBP risks
02:02 UTC
Rebound from midweek low, stalling at week high · RSI 60 · price 1.32698
V-shaped recovery from the Wednesday low into a second test of the week high; RSI making a lower high.
Wednesday's NY-session drop to 1.3137, driven by Pill's comments, broke below Monday's 1.3202 low but was fully reversed. Thursday's UK GDP beat and a USD fade on falling yields carried cable back to a 1.3278 week high. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.3260 and the 1.3250 weekly open, but the week high is only a marginal second test of Wednesday's 1.3275 peak, with RSI(14) printing a lower high near 65 against roughly 70 on the first test. The Asia session is compressing just under that cap ahead of the Bailey and Warsh speeches.
Support: 1.3260, 1.3250, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3278 week high opens the path to the 1.3300 round number, the digest's range top
BoE Gov Bailey (02:00 UTC) and Fed Chair Warsh (03:30 UTC) speeches could materially shift this read within the next few bars
Loss of EMA(20) and the 1.3250 weekly open puts the 1.3231 thu ny low in focus; below that, the 38.2% retracement of the Wed–Thu rebound fib sits near 1.3224
Another rejection at the week high cap with RSI held below 65 keeps the bearish divergence in play
V-shaped recovery from Wednesday low, higher lows into a flat range top.
Wednesday's Pill-driven slide into the London-NY transition took out Monday's low and printed the 1.3137 YTD low. Thursday's UK GDP beat and post-PPI USD weakness then drove a full retrace of the drop, with the Wednesday–Thursday rally fib fully reclaimed and a higher low at the 1.3231 thu ny low during NY hours. Price now sits above the ema20 near 1.3260 and the 1.3249 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 63. The 1.3275–1.3278 week high has capped Wednesday's Asia session and three Thursday attempts, keeping the range top intact.
Support: 1.3260, 1.3249, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read within the next few bars
H1 close above the 1.3278 week high breaks the range top and brings the 1.3300 round number into view
Loss of rising support and the ema20 near 1.3260 puts the 1.3249 weekly open back in play
Close below the 1.3231 thu ny low breaks the higher-low sequence, exposing the 50% fib of the Wednesday–Thursday rally near 1.3207
V-shaped recovery from Wednesday's low, now retesting the Wed/Thu highs at range top.
Wednesday's Pill-driven drop through the London-NY transition hit the week low at 1.3137. Price then fully retraced through Asia and into Thursday's London session, helped by a softer USD and the UK GDP and production beats. Thursday's NY session held the 1.3231 swing low and pushed back to the 1.3275–1.3278 week high, matching Wednesday's pre-drop peak. Price is holding just above the EMA(20) near 1.3262 while RSI(14) flattens in the high 50s and ranges compress to 10–15 pips.
Support: 1.3262, 1.3231, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3278, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3278 week high breaks the Wed/Thu highs and brings the 1.3300 round number into play
Rejection at the Wed/Thu highs and a loss of the ema20 near 1.3262 would leave a double-top shape over the 1.3231 swing low
Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish Warsh or a 'one and done' Bailey is the downside risk
Failure to hold the 1.3231 swing low exposes the 61.8% retracement of the recovery near 1.3191