Higher highs/higher lows since 1.3137 low; range top cleared.
GBP/USD dropped briefly to the 1.3137 YTD low, then reversed hard. That makes the dip a false break of the 1.3180-1.3285 range that had held price for two weeks. A run of UK data beats and a softer USD drove the recovery, carrying price through the range top and the 1.3311 prior high to a 1.3349 rebound high, with higher lows stepping up along the rebound line. Price sits above both EMAs, with EMA20 over EMA50. ATR(14) near 37 pips is wide compared with the range phase, consistent with expansion into the 1.3400 Sept high at the top of the window.
Support: 1.3311, 1.3285, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3349, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.3285 range top, near the 38.2% of the rebound fib, would put the breakout in doubt
Holding above the 1.3311 prior high keeps the higher-low sequence along the rebound line intact
A close above the 1.3349 rebound high and the 1.3400 Sept high clears the top of the three-week window
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today, then UK labour data (Tue) and UK CPI (Wed), could materially shift this read
A return below the 1.3137 ytd low would negate the false break read
False break below multi-week range, then range break higher.
Wednesday's flush to the 1.3137 sweep low, below the 1.3180 range floor, proved a false break. Thursday's run of UK data beats and a heavy USD then lifted price through the 1.3285 range top that had capped two weeks of trade. Price is now pressing the 1.3311 swing high just under the 1.3325 monthly high, with higher lows stacking since the sweep and price above both EMAs. ATR(14) near 36 pips has expanded from the compressed range regime, consistent with a trend leg rather than more range rotation.
Support: 1.3285, 1.3231, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3325, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H4 close back below the 1.3285 range top would mark the breakout as failed and reopen the old range
A sustained hold above the 1.3325 monthly high opens the path toward the 1.3400 prior high from the start of the window
Loss of the rally fib 50% at 1.3231 would erase most of the post-sweep reversal
US Industrial Production today 13:15 UTC could shift USD tone into the weekly close
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC and UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of the Nov 5 BoE decision
05:01 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding into range top · RSI 59 · price 1.33006
Three-week 1.3180–1.3311 range after the slide from 1.3400; false break to 1.3137 reversed.
GBPUSD has held a 1.3184–1.3311 range for about three weeks after the slide from the 1.3400 prior high. Wednesday's drop to the 1.3137 YTD low on Pill's dovish remarks was a false break below the range floor. UK data beats and a heavy USD drove a full rebound that has cleared both the lower-highs line and the 1.3275 prior cap. Price closed at 1.3301 above both EMAs, just under the 1.3311 range top, with ATR(14) near 34 pips after the sweep-driven expansion.
Support: 1.3275, 1.3184, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3311, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3311 range top would end the range read and open room toward the 1.3400 prior high
Slip back below the 1.3275 prior cap returns price to the range interior and the rebound fib 50% near 1.3221
Warsh remarks today and US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could revive USD demand and shift this read
UK labour data Tue and UK CPI Wed are the next tests; loss of the 1.3184 range floor puts the 1.3137 ytd low back in focus
01:01 UTC
Sideways range, sharp rebound into the top · RSI 56 · price 1.3270
Multi-week 1.3180–1.3285 range; false break to 1.3137 fully reclaimed.
After the early slide from the 1.3400 swing high, GBP/USD has spent most of the window inside a 1.3180–1.3285 range. Wednesday's false break to the 1.3137 YTD low was fully retraced on Thursday's run of UK growth beats and a softer USD, and price is now retesting the range top while pressing the lower-highs line from the 1.3311 prior high. Price holds above both EMAs, with the ema20 near 1.3245, and ATR(14) near 34 pips has eased since the expansion around the sweep; the rebound fib 38.2% near 1.3224 sits just below.
Support: 1.3245, 1.3182, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3285, 1.3311, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3285 range top and the lower-highs line opens the 1.3311 prior high
Rejection at 1.3285 and a close back below the ema20 near 1.3245 returns price to the range middle
Failure below the 1.3182 range low exposes the 1.3137 YTD low again; a break there would reopen the downtrend
BoE Governor Bailey at 02:00 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read within the next bar