21:02 UTC
Downtrend since Aug 21 peak, basing in October · RSI 53 · price 1.33266
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 1.3675; Oct 14 false break of base low reversed, price testing the range top.
GBPUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 peak at 1.3675, breaking the 1.3465–1.3560 September shelf mid-month and grinding through an October base between the 1.3180 base low and the 1.3311 range top. Wednesday's dip to the 1.3137 10m low reversed into a false break on beats in UK GDP, manufacturing and industrial production plus a softer USD. Friday closed above the range top but faded from 1.3371, back under the ema50 near 1.3340, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the Aug–Oct decline and the falling trendline.
Support: 1.3311, 1.3180, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3340, 1.3400, 1.3468
What it said to watch
- Daily close above 1.3400 sep high would break the lower-high sequence and the falling trendline from the Aug 21 peak
- Close back below the 1.3311 range top returns price to the October base, turning Friday's move into a failed breakout
- Retracement extension toward 1.3468, where the 61.8% fib meets the mid-Sep breakdown level, is the next structural test
- A break of the 1.3137 10m low resumes the lower-low chain; a hold above the 1.3180 base low keeps the false-break read intact
- UK jobs (Tue Oct 20) and UK CPI (Wed Oct 21) could materially shift this read ahead of the November BoE decision