21:02 UTC
Downtrend from Aug high, basing and testing EMA50 · RSI 50 · price 1.33362
LH/LL chain intact; 4-week base with false break below floor.
The decline from the 21 Aug high at 1.3675 stalled into a four-week base between the range floor at 1.3181 and the range top at 1.3311. The 14 Oct dip to the oct low at 1.3137 was a false break that reversed sharply, and Friday's UK activity beats plus Warsh offering no guidance carried price through the range top. That rally stalled at the friday high of 1.3371, where the falling EMA(50) near 1.3340, the 38.2% retracement of the Aug–Oct decline at 1.3343 and the downtrend line converge.
Support: 1.3311, 1.3181, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3371, 1.3464, 1.3568
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the friday high at 1.3371 and the downtrend line opens the sep shelf at 1.3464; only a move through the lower high at 1.3568 breaks the LH/LL chain
- Close back below the range top at 1.3311 returns price to the 1.3181–1.3311 base; losing the oct low at 1.3137 resumes the downtrend
- UK labour data Tue and September CPI Wed (f/c 3.4%), with a November BoE hike priced, could materially shift this read
- US S&P Global PMIs on Friday are the USD-side catalyst for a break of the EMA(50) cap