21:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 53 · price 1.33111
Lower highs from Aug peak; 4-week base 1.3137-1.3371.
Cable has been in a downtrend since the Aug 21 aug peak at 1.3675. The mid-September loss of the 1.3465 sep pivot extended the decline to a 1.3137 oct low, and price still trades below a falling EMA(50) on D1. The last four weeks have built a base. The Oct 14 dip under the 1.3181 range low reversed the next day as UK activity and jobs beats met a softer USD, an early false break. That rebound reclaimed the ema20 near 1.3270 but stalled at the 1.3371 oct high, between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the Aug-Oct fib.
Support: 1.3270, 1.3181, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3371, 1.3465, 1.3675
What it said to watch
- UK CPI Wed 21 Oct 06:00 UTC: a miss puts the ema20 near 1.3270 back in play, with ~95% Nov BoE hike pricing exposed
- A daily close above the 1.3371 oct high clears the Aug-Oct fib 50% near 1.3406 and opens the 1.3465 sep pivot
- A daily close back below the 1.3181 range low exposes the 1.3137 oct low and resumes the lower-low sequence
- US PMIs Fri 23 Oct and next week's FOMC could materially shift the USD side of this read