Higher lows since Monday's 1.3296 low; break above Friday's high now being retested.
Cable dipped below the 1.3306 weekly open to 1.3296 late Monday and has since built higher lows. Tuesday's UK jobs beat drove a London-session leg, and broad USD softness on US-Iran deal hopes and weak housing data extended it in NY to a 1.3409 week high. The pullback held at the 38.2% retrace near 1.3365, just under the 1.3371 friday high, and price now sits above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 62, capped so far by the 1.3385 late NY high.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3336, 1.3306
Resistance: 1.3385, 1.3409
What it said to watch
UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.4% y/y, core 2.7%) could materially shift this read; with a November hike ~95% priced, a soft print carries more room to unwind the week's gains
H1 close above the 1.3409 week high and the 1.3400 round number extends the breakout from Friday's high
H1 close back below the 1.3371 friday high and the 1.3365 pullback low fails the retest and breaks the higher-lows trendline
Loss of the 1.3336 london low near the 61.8% fib puts the 1.3306 weekly open back in play
Higher lows since Monday; Tuesday breakout above Friday's 1.3371 high, now holding a shallow pullback.
Cable spent Monday in a 1.3299–1.3342 range above the weekly open. On Tuesday the London open UK jobs beat lifted it, and the NY session USD selloff on US-Iran deal reports and weak housing data extended the move to a 1.3409 week high, though it did not hold the 1.3400 psych level. The NY pullback low at 1.3365 sits on the 38.2% retracement and EMA(20). Price is coiling just under 1.3380 with RSI(14) easing to ~60 from Tuesday's peak.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3336, 1.3306
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3409
What it said to watch
UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC (YoY f/c 3.4%) is the binary for this structure; the context flags a soft print as the larger reaction risk
An H1 close above the 1.3409 week high clears the 1.3400 psych cap and extends the breakout
A break of the 1.3365 pullback low exposes the 1.3336 london low and the higher-low line
Failure back below the 1.3306 weekly open would turn Tuesday's breakout into a false break
Breakout above Friday high, higher lows since Tuesday's Asia low.
Monday ranged around the 1.3306 weekly open before Tuesday's UK jobs beat lifted cable at London open. USD softness then carried it through Friday's 1.3371 high in the NY session to a 1.3409 week high. The fade found a retest low at 1.3365, the 38.2% fib of Tuesday's rally, and price has since held above the rising EMA(20) near 1.3360 with RSI(14) easing to the mid-60s. The pre-NY base at 1.3336 and Tuesday's higher-lows trendline sit beneath.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3336, 1.3306
Resistance: 1.3409
What it said to watch
UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.4% y/y) could materially shift this read; a miss carries the larger reaction risk
H1 close below the 1.3365 retest low and EMA(20) puts the breakout back inside Friday's range
Loss of the 1.3336 pre-ny base breaks Tuesday's trendline and exposes the weekly open at 1.3306
H1 close above the 1.3409 week high resumes the uptrend sequence
Higher lows from Monday's 1.3296 low; Friday's 1.3371 high cleared and retested.
Cable dipped below the 1.3306 weekly open into Monday's NY session. It then rallied about 110 pips on Tuesday in two legs: a London-open jump on the UK jobs beat and a second push through Friday's 1.3371 high in the first hours of NY as the dollar softened on Iran-deal reports and weak US housing data. The late-NY pullback low at 1.3365 held at the 38.2% retracement of the move off the week low, and price is basing above EMA(20) near 1.3358 with RSI(14) cooling from overbought to the high 60s. Supply has capped the push at the 1.3409 week high, just above the 1.3400 round number.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3358, 1.3306
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3409
What it said to watch
UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.4% YoY, core 2.7%) could materially shift this read; a soft print leaves Tuesday's breakout exposed
H1 close back below the 1.3365 pullback low and the ema20 would turn the breakout retest into a failed break
A sustained close above the 1.3409 week high and the 1.3400 round number extends the higher-lows sequence
Loss of the higher-lows trendline puts the weekly open at 1.3306 back in view
19:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after fresh week high · RSI 67 · price 1.33804
Higher lows since Monday; breakout above the Mon range, retest held.
Monday was a 1.3296–1.3342 range. Cable broke higher at Tuesday's London open on the UK jobs beat. The extension to a 1.3409 week high came in the first hour of NY, as soft US housing data and US-Iran deal reports pressured the dollar. The NY-hours pullback found demand at a 1.3365 pullback low, near the 38.2% retracement of the week's impulse and above Friday's 1.3371 high. Price holds above the rising EMA(20) near 1.3356, while supply capped the move just above the 1.3400 round number.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3356, 1.3336
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3409
What it said to watch
UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.4% YoY, core 2.7%) could materially shift this read; a soft print risks unwinding the jobs-day leg
H1 close below the 1.3365 pullback low and the ema20 exposes the London low at 1.3336 and the higher-low trendline
Acceptance above the 1.3400 round number and the 1.3409 week high extends the breakout; another rejection there leaves a lower-high risk
Confirmation or denial of the US-Iran deal report could reverse the USD leg that drove the NY session move
18:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back after impulse · RSI 64 · price 1.33704
Higher highs and higher lows; range breakout now retesting Friday's high.
Cable spent Monday boxed in a 1.3299–1.3342 range, then broke out on Tuesday. London drove the first leg on the UK jobs beat, and NY extended it to a 1.3409 week high as soft US housing data and US-Iran deal headlines hit USD. The pullback from the high has stalled at the 1.3365 pullback low, the 38.2% fib of Tuesday's leg. Price is sitting on Friday's 1.3371 high with EMA(20) near 1.3352 below and RSI(14) cooled to the mid-60s from above 70.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3352, 1.3306
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3409
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3365 pullback low and the ema20 at 1.3352 (50% fib) would mark a failed retest of Friday's high
Close back above the 1.3400 round number and the 1.3409 week high resumes the impulse leg
Break of the rising support from Tuesday's 1.3296 low shifts structure back toward a range above the weekly open at 1.3306
UK CPI Wed 06:00 GMT: a soft print could unwind hike pricing and pressure the breakout, while a hot print tests the 1.3409 week high
US-Iran deal confirmation or denial is live headline risk for USD at any time
17:01 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 65 · price 1.33755
Higher lows since Monday's 1.3296 low, holding just above Friday's high.
Since Monday's NY-session weekly low at 1.3296, cable has printed higher lows. The UK jobs beat drove the London-open leg to 1.3359, then a softer USD on US-Iran deal reports carried the NY session through Friday's high to a 1.3409 week high. A rejection just above the 1.3400 psych level pulled price back to retest the 1.3371 Friday high. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.3352, and RSI(14) has eased to ~65 from overbought territory.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3336, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3409
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3371 Friday high would turn the breakout into a false break and expose the 1.3352–1.3336 area (EMA(20), 50% fib, higher low)
Failure to hold the 1.3336 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline from the weekly low
H1 close above the 1.3409 week high clears the 1.3400 psych cap
UK CPI Wed 06:00 GMT (f/c 3.4% YoY, core 2.7%) could materially shift this read
US-Iran deal confirmation or denial is a USD swing factor for the 1.3400 area
16:01 UTC
Uptrend, impulsive leg extended · RSI 75 · price 1.33862
Higher highs and higher lows; Monday range broken to the upside.
Cable spent Monday ranging between the 1.3296 week low and 1.3342 below Friday's 1.3371 prior high. It then broke out in two legs today: first in the London session on the UK jobs beat, then in the first hours of NY as USD weakened on soft housing data and US-Iran deal reports. Today's leg tagged a 1.3409 week high just above the 1.3400 round number. Price now sits well above the EMA(20) near 1.3349 with RSI(14) overbought around 75.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3349, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3409
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 1.3400 round number and 1.3409 week high would mark today's spike as a stall rather than a clean extension
H1 close back below the 1.3371 prior high turns the breakout into a false break and opens a test of the ema20 near 1.3349, close to the 50% of today's leg
Loss of the 1.3296 week low breaks the higher-low line and the week's higher-low sequence
UK CPI Wed 06:00 GMT (~14h) could materially shift this read; a soft print exposes the post-jobs spike to retracement
15:02 UTC
Uptrend, accelerating · RSI 77 · price 1.33909
Higher lows; breakout above last week's high.
Cable spent Monday ranging 1.3299–1.3342 before Tuesday's impulse. The UK jobs beat at London open lifted it through 1.3335, then soft US housing data in the NY session carried it through last week's 1.3371 prior high to a 1.3395 day high. Price sits roughly 45 pips above the EMA(20) near 1.3345, with RSI(14) at ~77 overbought after the near 100-pip Tuesday impulse off the 1.3296 weekly low, and the higher-low trendline from Thursday's 1.3231 dip remains intact.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3345, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3395, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3371 prior high would turn today's breakout into a false break
Reaction at the 1.3400 round number: acceptance above extends the breakout, a rejection with RSI rolling over from overbought points to consolidation
UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.4% y/y, core 2.7%) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the ema20 and the 50% retrace of the Tuesday impulse (~1.3346) in focus
Loss of the higher-low trendline and the 1.3296 weekly low would void the uptrend structure
14:01 UTC
Uptrend, testing Friday's high · RSI 69 · price 1.33661
Higher lows since Monday NY; upside break of Monday's 1.3299–1.3342 range.
Cable broke above Monday's 1.3299–1.3342 range at the London open after the UK jobs beat (ILO unemployment 4.7% vs 4.9%). It pushed again into the London-NY transition, spiking to 1.3378 as the US Housing Starts miss weighed on USD. Hourly closes are still just below Friday's 1.3371 prior high, with the London pullback low at 1.3336 and EMA(20) close beneath. RSI(14) is near 69 after the push, and the weekly open at 1.3306 and the swing low at 1.3296 anchor the higher-lows line from Monday's NY session.
Support: 1.3336, 1.3306, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3371, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3371 prior high confirms the break and opens the path to the 1.3400 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3336 pullback low and EMA(20), the 50% fib area, returns price to Monday's range
Break below the higher-lows line and the 1.3296 swing low, beneath the weekly open, negates the week's upside structure
UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.4% YoY, core 2.7%) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the 1.3306–1.3296 zone in focus
Higher low from Monday, lower high under Friday's peak.
Wednesday's 1.3137 low kicked off a roughly 235-pip impulse into Friday's 1.3371 week high on UK activity beats and a fading USD. The Monday pullback held near 1.3296, above the 38.2% retracement of that Wed-Fri impulse, and stayed clear of the rising trendline, leaving a higher low. Today's spike on the strong headline UK jobs data at 06:00 UTC printed a jobs high at 1.3359, a lower high under the week high. Price is now holding the london low at 1.3336 and sits above EMA(20) near 1.3330, with RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
Support: 1.33361, 1.3330, 1.33061
Resistance: 1.33586, 1.33714
What it said to watch
UK CPI Wed 06:00 GMT (f/c 3.4% y/y, core 2.7%) could materially shift this read; the digest frames a soft print as the larger-reaction risk
H1 close above the 1.3371 week high breaks the lower-high line and resumes the uptrend sequence
Loss of the london low and EMA(20) near 1.3330 exposes the weekly open at 1.3306
Failure to hold the 1.3296 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low structure, with the 38.2% retracement near 1.3282 below
12:01 UTC
Recovering within range, higher lows since Monday · RSI 63 · price 1.33401
1.3296–1.3371 range after last week's impulse; higher lows off Monday low.
Last week's Wednesday-to-Friday impulse from 1.3137 topped at the 1.3371 prior high, and the pair has traded a 1.3296–1.3371 range since then, with the Sunday open gapping lower to the 1.3306 weekly open. The UK jobs beat, led by ILO unemployment at 4.7%, lifted the pair at the London open from the 1.3296 Monday low to a 1.3359 day high, where it was rejected. The pullback low at 1.3336 sits near the 38.2% retracement and keeps the higher-lows sequence intact, with price above EMA(20) near 1.3331 and RSI(14) around 63.
Support: 1.3336, 1.3306, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3359, 1.3371
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3371 prior high and lower-highs line breaks the range top
Failure of the 1.3336 pullback low and the higher-lows line returns focus to the 1.3306 weekly open and the 1.3296 Monday low
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC today could test the post-jobs gains
UK CPI Wed 06:00 GMT (f/c 3.4% y/y) could materially shift this read
11:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing the week high · RSI 65 · price 1.33512
Higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3137 low; Monday range broken higher.
The window is defined by the Wed–Fri rally from 1.3137 to the 1.3371 prior high, fed by last week's UK activity beats; Monday's NY dip to the 1.3296 week low retraced only about a third of that move. Price ground higher through the Asia session, then lifted out of Monday's 1.3296–1.3342 range at the London open on the UK jobs beat, printing a 1.3359 session high. The later dip found the old range top near 1.3340, with price holding above EMA(20) at ~1.3310 and RSI(14) near 64, short of overbought.
Support: 1.3340, 1.3310, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3359, 1.3371
What it said to watch
UK CPI Wed 06:00 GMT (f/c 3.4% YoY) could materially shift this read; a soft print puts the 1.3296 week low back in focus
H1 close back below the range top at 1.3340 returns price to Monday's range and undercuts the range break
Clearance of the 1.3359 session high and the 1.3371 prior high extends the Wed–Fri rally structure to new highs
Loss of the 1.3296 week low breaks the Tue higher lows sequence and the higher-low structure since Wednesday
US housing starts and permits today at 12:30 UTC could test whether price holds above EMA(20) during NY hours
Higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3137 low; Monday range broken higher on UK jobs.
Wednesday's NY-session drop to 1.3137 was fully retraced by Friday's London push to the 1.3371 week high. The pullback held 1.3296, a shallow ~32% retracement of the Wed-Fri impulse that respected the higher-lows line, before Monday ranged between 1.3296 and the 1.3342 monday high. At the London open today, the UK jobs beat (unemployment 4.7% vs 4.9%) lifted GBP through that range to a 1.3359 jobs high, with price holding above the monday high, the H1 ema20 rising beneath and RSI(14) in the mid-60s rather than stretched.
Support: 1.33417, 1.3327, 1.32964
Resistance: 1.33586, 1.33714, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3342 monday high returns price to Monday's range
Clearance of the 1.3371 week high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 1.3400 round number
Break of the higher-lows line and the 1.3296 swing low ends the uptrend structure
UK CPI Wed 06:00 GMT (f/c 3.4% y/y) could materially shift this read
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC today may move the USD side
Higher low at 1.3296, now through Monday's range top.
Last week's impulse ran from the 1.3137 low, set during NY hours on hot US data, to the 1.3371 Friday high. The pullback through Monday held a 1.3296 swing low, only about 32% of that move. Tuesday's London-session UK jobs beat (UE 4.7% vs 4.9%) then lifted price through Monday's 1.3342 prior high and the lower-highs line from Friday, printing a 1.3359 jobs high. Price holds above EMA(20) near 1.3327 with RSI(14) around 65, short of overbought.
Support: 1.33417, 1.3327, 1.32964
Resistance: 1.33586, 1.33714
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 1.3342 prior high would leave the jobs spike as a false break inside Monday's range
Close above the 1.3371 Friday high clears last week's peak; repeated rejection there would leave a double-top risk
Loss of the Asia higher lows line and EMA(20) near 1.3327 would weaken the higher-low sequence
Break below the 1.3296 swing low invalidates the higher-low structure
US housing data 12:15–14:00 UTC during NY hours and UK CPI Wed 06:00 GMT (f/c 3.4%) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday's low; lower-high line from Friday's peak broken.
GBPUSD has built higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3137 low, peaking at the 1.3371 week high on Friday's NY session. Monday's pullback held between the weekly open (1.3306) and the 1.3296 swing low, near the 23.6% retracement of the Wed–Fri rally. The UK jobs release in early London (unemployment 4.7% vs 4.9% f/c) lifted price through the monday high and the lower-high line to a 1.3359 jobs high, with a softer USD adding support; price now sits back above EMA(20) and RSI(14) is near 69.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3323, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3359, 1.3371, 1.3400
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the monday high at 1.3342 would turn the jobs-led breakout into a false break and re-expose the ema20 near 1.3323
A close above the 1.3359 jobs high and the 1.3371 week high opens the 1.3400 round number
Failure to hold the 1.3296 swing low and the weekly open at 1.3306 breaks the higher-low sequence
UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.4% y/y, core 2.8%) in about 22h could materially shift this read; US housing starts at 12:30 UTC today
Higher lows since Wednesday; Monday range 1.3299–1.3345 being tested at the top.
GBP/USD has built higher lows since Wednesday's NY-session drop to 1.3137. Friday's rally peaked at the friday high of 1.3371, and the NY-hours pullback into Monday found the week low at 1.3299, holding between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the Wed-Fri rally. The firm UK jobs report at the London open, with a softer USD alongside, lifted price back over EMA(20) at 1.3321 and through the lower-highs line from Friday, retesting the week high at 1.3345 with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 1.3321, 1.33061, 1.32986
Resistance: 1.33449, 1.33714
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3345 week high clears the Monday range top and opens the path to the 1.3371 friday high
Slip back under the ema20 at 1.3321 returns price to the middle of the Monday range
Failure to hold the 1.3306 weekly open and 1.3299 week low breaks the higher-lows sequence
UK CPI Wed 06:00 GMT (f/c 3.4%) could materially shift this read; US housing data at 12:30 UTC today is secondary
1.3299–1.3342 range beneath a line of lower highs from Friday's 1.3371 peak.
Wednesday's NY-session flush to 1.3137 was fully reversed by Friday's NY-session prior high at 1.3371. That 235-pip impulse came alongside UK GDP and industrial output beats and a softer USD as front-end yields fell. Since then price has compressed into a 1.3299–1.3342 range under a line of lower highs, with Monday's NY dip to the monday low holding between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement of the impulse. Tuesday's Asia session lifted price back above EMA(20) and the weekly open, with RSI(14) back in the mid-60s.
Support: 1.3320, 1.3306, 1.3299
Resistance: 1.3342, 1.3371
What it said to watch
UK jobs and earnings data at 06:00 UTC today could materially shift this read. An H1 close above the 1.3342 monday high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.3371 prior high.
An H1 close below the 1.3299 monday low exposes the 38.2% retracement of the impulse near 1.3282.
A slip back under the ema20 and the 1.3306 weekly open returns price to the range floor.
UK CPI on Wednesday at 06:00 UTC is the next scheduled test of the range.
05:01 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in consolidation · RSI 61 · price 1.33313
Higher lows from 1.3137; lower highs off 1.3371 compressing a 1.3296–1.3342 band.
Wednesday's NY-session flush to 1.3137 was fully reversed, with the UK GDP beat on Thursday and Friday's London drive lifting price to the 1.3371 prior high before NY sold it back. Since then price has held a 1.3296–1.3342 band above the 38.2% fib of the week's impulse, with the weekly open and monday low absorbing dips. Asia has carried price back above the ema20 with RSI(14) near 61, and it now sits against the lower-high trendline into 06:00 UTC UK jobs.
Support: 1.3318, 1.33061, 1.32964
Resistance: 1.33417, 1.33714
What it said to watch
UK jobs at 06:00 UTC (pay ex-bonus f/c 3.6%, unemployment f/c 4.9%) could materially shift this read; UK CPI follows Wednesday 06:00 UTC
H1 close above the 1.3342 monday high breaks the lower-high trendline and opens the path to the 1.3371 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.3296 monday low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.3282
Slip back below the ema20 and weekly open at 1.3306 keeps the consolidation band intact
04:01 UTC
Uptrend from midweek low, now consolidating · RSI 56 · price 1.3327
Higher lows since Wednesday; Monday range below Friday's high.
Hot US inflation data flushed the pair to 1.3137 on Wednesday's NY session. The recovery then printed higher lows through Thursday and Friday, helped by the UK GDP beat, and peaked at the 1.3371 week high in Friday NY hours. Monday's gap-down open was absorbed into a 1.3296–1.3342 range that capped below Friday's peak. The monday low held above the 38.2% fib of the Wednesday–Friday rally. During the Asia session price has reclaimed the ema20 near 1.3316, with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s and the flat EMAs bunched beneath it.
Support: 1.3316, 1.3296, 1.3282
Resistance: 1.3342, 1.3371
What it said to watch
UK jobs and earnings at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the reaction is likely outsized given stretched BoE pricing
H1 close above the monday high at 1.3342 reopens the 1.3371 week high
Failure to hold the monday low at 1.3296 breaks the higher lows line
Close below the 38.2% fib near 1.3282 would undercut the rally structure
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC are a secondary risk for the NY session
Lower high under 1.3371; 1.3297–1.3342 consolidation on rising support.
The dominant move in the window is the rebound from Wednesday's low at 1.3137, which followed the firm US CPI print, to the 1.3371 Friday high. The UK GDP beat and Friday's London-to-NY push carried most of that recovery. Since then, H1 has compressed into a 1.3297–1.3342 consolidation, with the Monday high capping below the Friday high to form a lower high. Price is back on EMA(20) near 1.3314, at the 23.6% retracement, with RSI(14) neutral around 48. The weekly open at 1.3306, the week low at 1.3297 and rising support from Thursday's low have held through the Asia session.
Support: 1.3306, 1.3297, 1.3282
Resistance: 1.3327, 1.3342, 1.3371
What it said to watch
UK labour data at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read. An H1 close above the friday close at 1.3327 and the monday high at 1.3342 would break the lower-high line and put the 1.3371 friday high back in play.
An H1 close below the week low at 1.3297 and rising support would break the consolidation floor and expose the fib 38.2 at 1.3282.
Repeated H1 closes below the weekly open at 1.3306 would show EMA(20) failing as a pullback floor.
UK CPI on Wed at 06:00 UTC is the second event risk inside the next day of bars.
02:01 UTC
Recovery uptrend stalling, range since Monday · RSI 41 · price 1.3311
Lower high under Friday peak, holding 1.3300 floor.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print knocked the pair to 1.3137 during NY hours. Thursday's UK activity beats and a Friday London-NY rally then lifted it to the 1.3371 friday high, retracing almost the whole drop. Since Monday the pair has ranged 1.3299–1.3342. The monday high sits as a lower high under Friday's peak, and the NY-session slide found the monday low just above 1.3300. Through the Asia session price is pinned near the 1.3306 weekly open and the 23.6% fib, just under a flattening ema20, with RSI(14) in the low 40s.
Support: 1.3306, 1.3299, 1.3282
Resistance: 1.3313, 1.3342, 1.3371
What it said to watch
UK labour data at 06:00 UTC today (ILO f/c 4.9%, ex-bonus pay f/c 3.6%) could break the 1.3299–1.3342 range in either direction
H1 close below the 1.3299 monday low confirms a lower low and exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3282
Close back above the ema20 and the 1.3342 monday high breaks the lower-high trendline from Friday's peak, putting the 1.3371 friday high back in focus
UK September CPI on Wednesday 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.4% y/y) is the next catalyst for BoE hike pricing
Lower high under 1.3371, tight range above 1.3300.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print drove a sharp NY-session drop to 1.3137. A V-shaped recovery followed, and the UK activity beats plus Friday's London-NY rally carried the pair to the 1.3371 prior high, where it was rejected into the Friday close. Since the weekly open at 1.3306, price has held a 1.3299–1.3342 range: the monday high marks a lower high on the lower-highs line, and the latest bars sit just under the EMA(20) near 1.3314 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 1.33061, 1.32986, 1.32817
Resistance: 1.33138, 1.33417, 1.33714
What it said to watch
UK labour data at Tue 06:00 UTC (London open) could materially shift this read; ILO unemployment f/c 4.9%, ex-bonus earnings f/c 3.6%
An H1 close below the 1.3299 monday low breaks the range floor and exposes the fib 38.2 retracement of the CPI-low rally at 1.3282
A close above the 1.3342 monday high and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.3371 prior high
UK September CPI at Wed 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.4% y/y) follows within the next session cycle
00:01 UTC
Pullback within the week's rebound, momentum fading · RSI 41 · price 1.33061
Lower high below Friday peak; consolidation between 1.3299 and 1.3342.
The window's dominant move was the rebound from Wednesday's NY-session low at 1.3137, set after the hot US CPI print, to the friday high at 1.3371, helped by Thursday's UK GDP beat. Friday's NY reversal and a rejection at the monday high of 1.3342 have since produced a lower high, and Monday's NY session pushed price back to the monday low at 1.3299 as US yields firmed. Price is now pinned near the weekly open, just under the ema20 at 1.3314 and a flat EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 41. The 38.2% fib of the rebound at 1.3275 lines up with the thu high below.
Support: 1.32986, 1.3278
Resistance: 1.3314, 1.33417, 1.33714
What it said to watch
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC and UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the monday low at 1.3299 exposes the thu high and the 38.2% fib near 1.3275
Reclaiming the ema20 at 1.3314 and breaking the lower highs line above the monday high at 1.3342 reopens the friday high at 1.3371