Monday range 1.3296–1.3342 under Friday's week high, testing range floor.
Wednesday's NY-session flush to 1.3137 was fully reversed. Friday's NY rally, after Fed Chair Warsh gave no rate guidance, printed the week high at 1.3371 before a sharp rejection. Since Monday's open price has held a 1.3296–1.3342 range, and that Monday high is a lower high beneath the week high; NY hours pushed price back below ema20 (1.3314) to test the monday low with RSI(14) near 37. The fib 38.2% of the 1.3137–1.3371 advance sits just beneath at 1.3282, and the lower-highs line from Friday caps the upside.
Support: 1.3296, 1.3282
Resistance: 1.3314, 1.3342, 1.3371
What it said to watch
H1 close below the monday low at 1.3296 breaks Monday's range and exposes the fib 38.2% at 1.3282
Recovery through ema20 and the monday high at 1.3342 breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the week high at 1.3371
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC (wages ex-bonus f/c 3.6%) could materially shift this read; UK CPI follows Wed 06:00 UTC
Lower high at 1.3342 under Friday's 1.3371 peak; Monday low tested late NY.
Friday's NY spike to the 1.3371 friday high, after Warsh gave no guidance, capped a two-day recovery from the midweek NY flush to 1.3137 and was quickly rejected. Monday gapped lower to the 1.3306 weekly open, was capped at the 1.3342 monday high through London, then slipped in NY to a 1.3297 monday low as firmer US yields lifted the dollar. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.3314 and roughly on EMA(50), with RSI(14) at 44. It is still holding above the 38.2% fib of the week's rally at 1.3282.
Support: 1.3297, 1.3282, 1.3264
Resistance: 1.3314, 1.3342, 1.3371
What it said to watch
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC lands at London open and could break the 1.3297–1.3342 Monday range either way
H1 close below the 1.3297 monday low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3282 and the 1.3264 friday low
Recovery above ema20 and the 1.3342 monday high breaks the lower-high line from Friday's peak; the 1.3371 friday high is the next cap
UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.4%) is a second event risk for this structure
21:02 UTC
Recovery uptrend, pulling back below EMAs · RSI 40 · price 1.3303
Lower high 1.3342 and lower low under the 1.3371 week high.
The week's dominant move was the recovery from Wednesday's NY-session low at 1.3137. Friday extended it to a 1.3371 week high after Warsh offered no guidance, and Monday then faded from 1.3342 into a lower high as USD firmed on higher Treasury yields. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 1.3320 and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 40, while the monday low at 1.3299 holds the 1.3300 handle and the pullback stays above the 38.2% fib of the week's impulse at 1.3275.
Support: 1.3299, 1.3275, 1.3254
Resistance: 1.3320, 1.3342, 1.3371
What it said to watch
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with Wednesday's CPI behind it
An H1 close below the monday low at 1.3299 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 38.2% fib at 1.3275, then the 50% fib at 1.3254
A recovery above the ema20 and the monday high at 1.3342 breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 1.3371 week high
20:01 UTC
Uptrend from Wednesday low, correcting off Friday peak · RSI 40 · price 1.33037
Lower highs since 1.3371 week high, testing the 1.3300 handle.
Cable recovered more than 230 pips from Wednesday's NY-session low at 1.3137. It absorbed Thursday's hot US PPI and retail sales dip, then the UK activity beats carried it to the 1.3371 week high on Friday afternoon. Monday gapped below Friday's close and held a 1.3307–1.3342 range through London, with 1.3342 the Monday high and a lower high against Friday's peak. During NY hours price slipped under the weekly open at 1.3306 and below EMA(20) near 1.3319 as US yields firmed, tagging a 1.3299 Monday low with RSI(14) easing to around 40, still above the 38.2% fib of the rally at 1.3282.
Support: 1.3299, 1.3282, 1.3254
Resistance: 1.3306, 1.3342, 1.3371
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3299 Monday low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 38.2% fib at 1.3282
Loss of the 50% fib at 1.3254 would retrace half the Wednesday–Friday rally and align with the 1.3250–1.3260 support zone
Recovery above the 1.3342 Monday high and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.3371 week high
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC (ILO f/c 4.9%, earnings ex-bonus f/c 3.6%) could materially shift this read; UK CPI follows Wed 06:00 UTC
Post-flush V-recovery capped at 1.3371; Monday range 1.3299-1.3342 testing its base.
The dominant move of the window was Wednesday's NY-session flush to 1.3137. It was followed by a V-shaped recovery through Thursday and Friday as UK activity data beat across the board, peaking at the 1.3371 friday high during NY hours. Monday opened with a roughly 20-pip gap lower that filled in the Asia session. London then capped price at 1.3342, a monday high below Friday's peak, and the NY session pressed down to the 1.3299 monday low as USD steadied on firmer Treasury yields. Price now sits below the EMA(20) near 1.3320 with RSI(14) around 43, holding between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the recovery leg.
Support: 1.3299, 1.3282, 1.3264
Resistance: 1.3320, 1.3342, 1.3371
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3299 monday low / 1.3300 psych exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3282 and the 1.3264 friday base
Reclaim of the ema20 near 1.3320 and a close above the 1.3342 monday high would break the lower-highs line and reopen the 1.3371 friday high
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC (ILO f/c 4.9%, earnings ex-bonus f/c 3.6%) could materially shift this read
UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.4% y/y) is the second event risk for the range
Lower high under Friday's peak, holding Monday low.
Wednesday's London sell-off to 1.3137 reversed into a 235-pip impulse that topped at the 1.3371 swing high in Friday's NY session as the USD slid. Monday gapped lower to a 1.3306 weekly open, set a lower high at 1.3342 (monday high) in London that drew a rejection, and NY hours pushed price back to the 1.3299 monday low. Price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 40, holding above the 23.6% retracement of the impulse with the 38.2% fib at 1.3282 next.
Support: 1.3299, 1.3282, 1.3254
Resistance: 1.3306, 1.3342, 1.3371
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3299 monday low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3282 and the 50% fib near 1.3254
Recovery above the 1.3306 weekly open and a close through the 1.3342 monday high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.3371 swing high
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC (ex-bonus wages f/c 3.6%) could materially shift this read
UK September CPI Wed 06:00 UTC (f/c 3.4% y/y) is the second event risk for the 1.3290-1.3360 range
Monday range 1.3301-1.3342 under a lower-highs line from Friday's 1.3371 peak.
The Wed-Fri rally ran from the 1.3137 low after Wednesday's NY-session drop to a three-week high at 1.3371 on Friday, helped by UK GDP and production beats and a softer USD, then faded into the weekly close. Monday opened with a gap lower to the 1.3306 weekly open and held a 1.3301-1.3342 range, with the monday high rejected twice. Price is now pressing the monday low during NY hours, below ema20 near 1.3322 and the lower highs trendline, with RSI(14) sagging toward 38.
Support: 1.3301, 1.3275, 1.3254
Resistance: 1.3306, 1.3322, 1.3342
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3300 monday low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3275 of the Wed-Fri rally, then the 50% fib near 1.3254
Reclaiming the weekly open at 1.3306 and ema20 at 1.3322 returns price to the middle of the Monday range
H1 close above the 1.3342 monday high breaks the lower highs line from Friday's peak
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC (ex-bonus wages f/c 3.6%) could materially shift this read, with UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC behind it
16:01 UTC
Uptrend stalled, ranging below last week's high · RSI 45 · price 1.3317
Post-rally range 1.3307–1.3342 under Friday's 1.3371 peak, lower high Monday.
Cable recovered the whole of Wednesday's NY-session drop to 1.3137, which came on the hot US CPI. UK data beats then carried it to a Friday high of 1.3371 before NY-hours selling pulled it back to 1.3310. Monday opened with a small gap below Friday's close and has held a 35-pip range between the Monday low at 1.3307 and the Monday high at 1.3342. That high is a lower high, and price is now slipping back under the H1 ema20 with RSI(14) in the mid-40s and ATR contracting to about 14 pips. The pullback so far is shallow, with the 38.2% fib of the 1.3137–1.3371 rally at 1.3282 still well below.
Support: 1.3307, 1.3282
Resistance: 1.3326, 1.3342, 1.3371
What it said to watch
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC, then CPI Wed 06:00 UTC, could break the Monday range either way
H1 close below the 1.3307 Monday low opens the 38.2% fib at 1.3282
Reclaim of the ema20 and a close above the 1.3342 Monday high puts the 1.3371 Friday high back in play
A close above the lower-highs line from Friday's peak would negate the stalling read
V-shaped rebound from 1.3137, now a tight range under 1.3371.
Wednesday's NY-session selloff to 1.3137 was fully reversed through Thursday and Friday as UK data beat across the board and the USD softened, with the rally stalling in a rejection at the 1.3371 Friday high during NY hours. Since Sunday's gap-lower open, price has compressed between the 1.3304 week low and the 1.3342 Monday high. Each dip, including the London-open drop to 1.3307, held the rising support from Thursday's low and stayed above the 23.6% fib near 1.3316. Price is sitting on a flattening EMA(20) with RSI(14) parked near 50 and ATR shrinking into Tuesday's UK labour data.
Support: 1.3304, 1.3278
Resistance: 1.3342, 1.3371
What it said to watch
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC (ILO unemployment f/c 4.9%, wages excl. bonus f/c 3.6%) could break the Monday range in either direction
H1 close below the 1.3304 week low breaks rising support and exposes the 1.3278 thu high, near the 38.2% fib
H1 close above the 1.3342 monday high reopens a retest of the 1.3371 friday high
UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC follows, keeping event risk elevated beyond the jobs print
Higher lows from Wednesday's flush; Monday compressing in a 1.3305–1.3342 box.
The week's dominant move was the rebound from Wednesday's NY-session flush to 1.3137. It ran through the Thursday low at 1.3231 on beats in UK GDP and production data plus softer Fed hike pricing, and topped at the 1.3371 week high during Friday's NY session. Monday opened with a gap down to 1.3304 on a firmer USD and filled it within the first hour. Since then price has compressed between the monday low and the 1.3342 monday high, sitting on EMA(20) with RSI(14) back near 47 after an early NY low at 1.3315.
Support: 1.3315, 1.3304, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3342, 1.3371
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3304 monday low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.3282
Close above the 1.3342 monday high reopens the 1.3371 week high
Holding the 1.3315 ny low keeps Monday's consolidation intact above the rising higher-lows line
Loss of the 1.3231 thursday low would negate the week's rebound structure
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC and UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:01 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below the week high · RSI 54 · price 1.33329
Higher lows since Wednesday's 1.3137 low; tight 1.3307–1.3342 range since Monday's open.
The week's dominant move was the 230-pip rally from Wednesday's 1.3137 low into Friday's NY-session 1.3371 week high, driven by a run of UK data beats and a softer USD. Since then the pair has compressed inside a 1.3307–1.3342 range above the 23.6% retracement of that rally. Monday's small opening gap filled in the Asia session, and a London-open dip to the monday low at 1.3307 was retraced within the hour. Price sits just above the ema20 near 1.3327, and RSI(14) is neutral around 54 as ATR contracts to about 13 pips ahead of the UK labour and CPI releases.
Support: 1.3327, 1.3307, 1.3282
Resistance: 1.3342, 1.3371
What it said to watch
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC: an earnings or unemployment surprise could break the 1.3307–1.3342 range in either direction
An H1 close above the monday high at 1.3342 brings the week high at 1.3371 back into focus
Failure to hold the monday low at 1.3307 breaks the rising lows line and exposes the fib 38.2% near 1.3282
UK September CPI Wed 06:00 UTC is the second test of the November BoE hike pricing behind this rally
11:01 UTC
Uptrend from Wednesday's low, stalling under week high · RSI 48 · price 1.33242
Tight range 1.3304–1.3338 below Friday's 1.3371 rejection, lower highs since.
GBPUSD has recovered roughly 235 pips from Wednesday's 1.3137 low to Friday's 1.3371 week high. The leg extended through Friday's London session on the run of UK data beats and BoE-hike pricing, and NY then rejected the high. Monday's opening gap lower filled in Asia, and a London-open dip held near the monday low at 1.3304, about the 23.6% retracement of the week impulse. Price is now pinned to a flat EMA(20) near 1.3323 with RSI(14) near 48, and lower highs from Friday sit overhead.
Support: 1.3323, 1.3304, 1.3278
Resistance: 1.3338, 1.3371
What it said to watch
H1 close above the monday high at 1.3338 breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 1.3371 week high
Failure to hold the monday low at 1.3304 exposes the thu high near 1.3278, close to the 38.2% retracement of the week impulse
UK labour data Tue 06:00 GMT and UK CPI Wed 06:00 GMT could break the 1.3304–1.3338 range in either direction
Post-impulse consolidation above 23.6% fib, lower highs since Friday peak.
Wednesday's NY-session drop to 1.3137 was fully reversed, with Thursday's GDP beat and a broadly softer USD carrying the pair to a 1.3371 week high in Friday's NY session before it faded into the close. Monday's gap lower was filled during the Asia session, and the London open dip to 1.3307 was bought back. Price is now coiling between the monday low near 1.3304 and the monday high at 1.3338 under a line of lower highs from Friday's peak, holding just above EMA(20) at 1.3323 and the 23.6% fib of the Wed–Fri impulse at 1.3316, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 1.3323, 1.3304, 1.3282
Resistance: 1.3338, 1.3371
What it said to watch
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC (ILO f/c 4.9%, AWE ex-bonus f/c 3.6%) could break the 1.3304–1.3338 box, with UK CPI on Wed as a second risk
H1 close above the monday high at 1.3338 breaks the lower highs line and reopens the week high at 1.3371
Failure to hold the monday low at 1.3304 exposes the fib 38.2 retracement at 1.3282
Sustained trade below ema20 at 1.3323 would extend the stall in momentum since Friday
09:02 UTC
Recovery uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 45 · price 1.33101
Higher lows since mid-week low; lower high under 1.3371.
GBPUSD recovered from the mid-week NY-session flush to 1.3137 with a run of higher lows. The advance carried through Friday's London and NY sessions to a 1.3371 week high, helped by UK data beats and softer Fed hike pricing. Friday's late pullback and a 27-pip drop at today's London open have returned price to the weekly open near 1.3306, now below EMA(20) at ~1.3321 but holding EMA(50) near 1.3303, with RSI(14) easing to 45. The Asian range capped at the 1.3338 Monday high, a lower high under the week high, so the higher-low sequence is now being retested.
Support: 1.33061, 1.3275, 1.32307
Resistance: 1.3321, 1.33384, 1.33714
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3304 weekly open/low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3275, which is also Thursday's range cap
Loss of 1.3275 would put the 1.3231 Thursday low back in view
Reclaiming EMA(20) and a close above the 1.3338 Monday high would undo the lower high and reopen the 1.3371 week high
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC and UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday low; compressing between 1.3306 and 1.3371.
GBP/USD retraced all of Wednesday's slide to 1.3137. It rallied about 235 pips into the 1.3371 friday high during Friday's NY session, driven by UK data beats and a softer USD after Warsh's neutral tone. A NY-session rejection then held at the 1.3310 friday low, near the 23.6% retracement of the rally, keeping the higher lows intact. Monday's gap below the 1.3306 weekly open filled in the first Asia hour. Price is now pressing the 1.3338 asian high, with ema20 flattening near 1.3330 and RSI(14) at 57, mid-range.
Support: 1.3330, 1.3310, 1.3306
Resistance: 1.3338, 1.3371
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3371 friday high breaks the lower highs and extends the Wed–Fri rally
Loss of the 1.3310 friday low and 1.3306 weekly open breaks the higher lows; 38.2% retracement near 1.3282 is next
Repeated failure at the 1.3338 asian high with closes back under ema20 turns the consolidation heavier
UK jobs Tue 06:00 UTC and UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
V-shaped recovery to 1.3371, now a tight range below a lower high.
Wednesday's NY-hours slide to the 1.3137 year-to-date low reversed into a V-shaped recovery. Beats in UK GDP and production data, plus fading Fed hike odds, carried the pair to a 1.3371 week high during Friday's London-NY transition. Friday's pullback held the 1.3310 swing low, just under the 23.6% retracement of the rally, and this was the second higher low after Thursday's 1.3231. Monday's Asian session filled the weekend gap and compressed between the 1.3323 Asian low and the 1.3338 Asian high, with price sitting just above a flattening EMA(20) and RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.3323, 1.3310, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3338, 1.3371
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3338 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 1.3371 week high
Failure to hold the 1.3323 asian low and EMA(20) shifts focus to the 1.3310 swing low
A break below the 1.3310 swing low exposes the 38.2% retracement near 1.3282, then Thursday's 1.3231 higher low
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC and UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read given stretched BoE hike pricing
06:01 UTC
Uptrend off midweek low, pausing below Friday high · RSI 50 · price 1.33277
Higher lows since Wednesday; tight Asia range capped at 1.3338.
Wednesday's selloff in the London-NY transition to 1.3137 was fully reversed through Thursday and Friday. The UK GDP beat and a softer USD after Warsh's speech carried the rally to a 1.3371 week high in Friday's NY session. That high saw a rejection back to the 1.3310 friday low, where the rally trendline from Thursday's low also sits. Monday's Asia session has since filled the small opening gap from the 1.3304 monday low but stalled at the 1.3338 asia high, leaving price flat on EMA(20) with RSI(14) parked near 50.
Support: 1.3310, 1.33035, 1.3275
Resistance: 1.33384, 1.33714, 1.3435
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3338 asia high breaks the lower highs line from Friday and reopens the 1.3371 week high; beyond that, 1.3435 key resistance is the next reference
Failure to hold the 1.3304 monday low and the rally trendline breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib of the rally near 1.3275
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC and UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with BoE hike pricing already stretched
04:01 UTC
Uptrend off midweek low, pausing below week high · RSI 59 · price 1.33263
V-shaped recovery from 1.3137, higher lows intact, Friday pullback now compressing around EMA(20).
GBP/USD has fully retraced Wednesday's NY-session slide to 1.3137. Thursday–Friday's rally, driven by the UK GDP beat and a USD that faded hot data, carried price to a 1.3371 week high in Friday's London session. Sellers capped that high, but the pullback held 1.3310 and stayed above the 23.6% retracement of the Wednesday low-to-Friday high move. Monday's Asian session filled the 20-pip opening gap from the 1.3306 weekly open and stalled at a 1.3338 Asia high, leaving price compressed just above EMA(20) at 1.3321 with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 1.3321, 1.3306, 1.3282
Resistance: 1.3338, 1.3371
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3306 weekly open would undercut Friday's low and expose the 38.2% fib at 1.3282
Close above the 1.3338 Asia high reopens a test of the 1.3371 week high
Monday's gap left price below the higher lows line from Wednesday's low; failure to reclaim it keeps the Friday pullback structure in play
UK jobs data Tue 06:00 UTC and UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off Wednesday low; pullback holding above EMA(20) after Friday rejection.
Wednesday's NY-session flush to 1.3137 reversed into a roughly 230-pip rally over Thursday–Friday, helped by the UK GDP beat and a softer USD. The move peaked at the 1.3371 week high in Friday's NY session, then met rejection back to 1.3310, near the 23.6% retracement of the Wed–Fri rally. Monday's Asia session opened with a gap down to the 1.3304 monday low, recovered to a 1.3338 session high and now sits just above EMA(20) at 1.3321, with RSI(14) near 52 as momentum cools from Friday.
Support: 1.3321, 1.3304, 1.3276
Resistance: 1.3338, 1.3371
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3304 monday low exposes Thursday's 1.3276 high and the 38.2% fib near 1.3282
Close above the 1.3338 session high puts the 1.3371 week high back in play; a second rejection there would mark a lower high
Sustained trade below EMA(20) at 1.3321 would signal the pullback is extending
UK jobs (Tue 06:00 UTC) and UK CPI (Wed 06:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from Wed low; ranging below week high.
Wednesday's NY-session flush to 1.3137 was fully reversed. The recovery extended through Friday's London and NY sessions to a 1.3371 week high on softer USD as October Fed hike odds faded. NY rejected that high, and the pullback held the 1.3310 friday low near the 23.6% retracement of the recovery leg. Monday's gap down to 1.3305 then filled in Asia, but price stalled at 1.3338 (monday high). Price now sits just above EMA(20) at 1.3321 with RSI(14) near 49, momentum cooling beneath the 1.3350 round number.
Support: 1.3321, 1.3310, 1.3276
Resistance: 1.3338, 1.3350, 1.3371
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3310 friday low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3276 thu high breakout area
Acceptance above the 1.3350 round number and the 1.3371 week high would resume the recovery leg
Repeated H1 closes below ema20 at 1.3321 would shift the read toward range
UK labour data Tue 06:00 UTC and UK CPI Wed 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Hormuz/Iran headlines during the Asia session are a two-way USD risk