21:03 UTC
June uptrend broken, momentum lower · RSI 35 · price 1.3393
Lower highs since the 1.3675 peak, first lower low at 1.3336.
The June uptrend off 1.3140 topped out at 1.3675 and has rolled over: a month of lower highs gave way last week to a decisive break of the ascending support that had defined the trend, with the pair losing roughly 1.15% on the week to a seven-week low at 1.3336. The driver was the rate differential — a hawkish Fed hike to 4.00% with a steeper dot path against the BoE's 6-3 hold — and the Friday retail sales beat only produced a shallow bounce, leaving price pinned near the 61.8% retracement of the whole June–August advance. Price is below both EMA20 and a flattening EMA50 around 1.3485, and D1 RSI at ~35 is approaching, but not yet at, genuinely oversold territory.
Support: 1.3336, 1.3300, 1.3284
Resistance: 1.3435, 1.3485, 1.3675
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 1.3336 7-wk low confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 1.3300 round number and the 1.3284 swing low
- Sustained trade back above the 1.3435 supply cap would question the downside break; reclaiming the 1.3485 ema50 would neutralise it
- UK and US flash PMIs on Wed 23 Sep are the week's main catalysts and could materially shift this read
- BoE speakers Thu — any unwind of November hike pricing removes the support GBP has had on crosses