21:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum decelerating · RSI 38 · price 1.3393
Lower highs and lower lows, now basing above 1.3336.
The window is a clean H4 downtrend: successive lower highs from 1.3656 through 1.3568 and 1.3497, with the 1.3461/1.3445 shelf given up on a single 89-pip impulse bar that drove price to 1.3336. Rate differentials did the work — the Fed's hawkish hike to 4.00% against a 6-3 BoE hold left Sterling at seven-week lows — and the last five bars have stalled into a 1.3336-1.3406 consolidation, with the second test of 1.3336 forming a potential double bottom while RSI(14) holds near 37 rather than extending lower. Price at 1.3393 sits just under EMA20 at 1.3402, itself overlapping the prior high at 1.3406, and ATR(14) near 31 pips is easing off the impulse spike.
Support: 1.3336, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3406, 1.3435
What it said to watch
- H4 close above 1.3406 (prior high and EMA20 confluence) would end the consolidation read and expose the 1.3435 supply cap
- Loss of 1.3336 confirms a fresh lower low and opens the 1.3300 round number
- UK flash PMIs Wed 08:30 GMT and US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the week's catalysts and could materially reset this structure
- Failure of the double bottom to produce a higher low keeps the sequence of lower highs and lower lows intact