Lower highs and lower lows, price below EMA20/EMA50.
An unbroken sequence of lower highs and lower lows has carried Cable from 1.3656 to a 7-week low at 1.3336 over the three-week window, with the BoE's 6-3 hold against the Fed's 25bp hike accelerating the last leg. The 1.3445 shelf that had contained the prior two weeks broke decisively and the bounce into 1.3406 was rejected, leaving that broken low as overhead supply; price trades well below both EMA20 and EMA50 with the pair never reclaiming the moving averages since the break. ATR(14) near 31 pips marks an expansion regime rather than compression, and RSI in the high-20s reflects trend extension rather than a completed reversal signal.
Support: 1.3336, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3406, 1.3445
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.3336 confirms continuation toward the 1.3300 psych area
An H4 close back above the 1.3406 swing high would be the first break of the lower-highs sequence
Reclaiming 1.3445 broken low would invalidate the downtrend read on this timeframe
UK flash PMIs Wed 23 Sep and US flash PMIs the same day could materially shift this structure
09:01 UTC
Downtrend, extending · RSI 31 · price 1.33671
Successive lower highs and lower lows; fresh cycle low at 1.3336.
Price has traced a clean descending channel of lower highs and lower lows from 1.3675 over the past three weeks, with the break below the 1.3445 swing high shelf accelerating into a fresh cycle low at 1.3336. The Fed's 25bp hike against a hawkish-but-priced BoE hold widened the policy gap, and this week's retail sales beat only produced a shallow bounce that stalled under the 1.3406 prior high. ATR(14) near 30 pips is elevated versus the mid-window grind, and price trades below both EMA20 and EMA50 after the bearish cross, so the expansion phase is still running.
Support: 1.3336, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3406, 1.3410, 1.3445
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.3336 swing low exposes the 1.3300 round number
A close back above the 1.3406 prior high and EMA20 would break the lower-high sequence
UK flash PMIs Wed 23 Sep and US flash PMIs the same day could materially shift this read
Sustained rejection under the descending channel's lower-highs line keeps the structure intact
05:01 UTC
Downtrend, extending · RSI 31 · price 1.33738
Sequential lower highs and lower lows, no higher high in three weeks.
Uninterrupted lower highs since the 1.3675 area, with price now trading roughly 120 pips below EMA20 and EMA50 after the breakdown through the 1.3448 shelf that had supported the mid-window range. That leg accelerated once the BoE's 6-3 cautious hold met a hawkish Fed hike, flushing the hawkish-hold GBP positioning and driving a wide-range H4 bar down to the 1.3336 swing low. ATR(14) near 30 pips marks an expansion regime rather than compression, and the bounce off the low has so far stalled under the 1.3406 prior high.
Support: 1.3336, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3406, 1.3448
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC is the first post-BoE data test and can reshape this read within the next bar
Failure to hold 1.3336 swing low confirms continuation toward the 1.3300 psych level
H4 close back above the 1.3406 prior high would break the lower-high sequence for the first time in the window
Reclaim of the 1.3448 breakdown level would put price back inside the prior range
Unbroken sequence of lower highs and lower lows; fresh three-week low at 1.3336.
Three weeks of stair-stepping lower highs from 1.3675 gave way this week: the 1.3442 broken support shelf snapped in a single 90-pip bar and price has since printed a fresh swing low at 1.3336, with the 1.3400 psych level now capping and EMA20 near 1.3418 sloping down above spot. The BoE's 6-3 hawkish hold underdelivered against a Fed that actually hiked, and that rate-differential story is what the chart has been discounting all week. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 29 pips as the move extends, and RSI near 27 is oversold without any divergence forming yet.
Support: 1.3336, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3418, 1.3442
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3336 swing low opens the 1.3300 round number
An H4 close back above 1.3442 broken support would break the lower-high sequence
1.3400 psych and EMA20 at 1.3418 — area to watch for rejection on any retest
UK Retail Sales (MoM f/c -0.2%) is the immediate catalyst and could materially shift this read