Lower highs into a flat 1.3335 base, price back above EMA20.
Cable has traded a stepped downtrend all week from Monday's 1.3505 high, the week's impulse lower driven by the BoE's 6-3 hold against the Fed's hawkish hike, with the heaviest legs printed in NY hours. Demand appeared twice at the same shelf, leaving a double btm at 1.3335 with RSI(14) making a higher low against it; Friday's NY session then recovered price back through the ema20 near 1.3370 to the session high at 1.33938, RSI now near 58. The retail sales beat produced only a shallow lift earlier, and the prior high at 1.3406 still caps the bounce.
Support: 1.3370, 1.3335
Resistance: 1.33938, 1.3406, 1.3445
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3406 prior high would break this week's lower-high sequence
1.3445 breakdown pt is the ceiling of the week's decline; unchallenged so far
Loss of the 1.3335 double btm base confirms continuation of the downtrend
Failure to hold the ema20 near 1.3370 would mark the bounce as corrective only
UK and US flash PMIs on Wed 23 Sep are the next events able to reset this read
16:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling near the lows · RSI 51 · price 1.33704
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday, last 24h compressing in a 1.3336-1.3377 band.
Cable has trended lower all week from 1.3513, with the two dominant legs both arriving in NY hours — the BoE hold on Thursday and the post-FOMC dollar bid — leaving a fresh week low at 1.3335 in today's London-NY transition. Friday's retail sales beat lifted price only to the 1.33765 day high before supply capped it, and the recovery off 1.3339 has price back above EMA(20) near 1.3359 but still under EMA(50). RSI(14) has cycled back to the 50 line from oversold without price making a higher high above 1.33952, so the lower-high sequence is intact.
Support: 1.3359, 1.33495, 1.33353
Resistance: 1.33765, 1.33952, 1.3406
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.33353 week low confirms another lower low and exposes the 1.3300 area
Loss of the 1.3359 ema20 and 1.33495 swing low re-engages the downside sequence
Acceptance above the 1.33765 day high and then 1.33952 prior high would break the week's lower-high pattern; 1.3406 swing high is the next structural cap
UK and US flash PMIs on Wed are the next high-impact prints; Fedspeak early next week could reprice the dollar leg of this move
15:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows into NY · RSI 37 · price 1.33402
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows; Friday consolidation broken lower.
Cable has trended lower all week from the 1.3513 Monday-session high, with the two impulse legs arriving on the Fed hike in Wednesday's NY session and the BoE hold on Thursday. Friday's 1.3335–1.3375 consolidation gave way in the London–NY transition despite the retail sales beat, and price is printing a new week low at 1.33353 while holding below both EMA(20) near 1.3357 and EMA(50). RSI(14) at ~37 is soft but not stretched, and every bounce this week has stalled under the falling lower-highs line.
Support: 1.33353, 1.3330
Resistance: 1.3357, 1.33755
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.33353 week low confirms continuation toward the 1.3300 round number
Hourly close back above the 1.33755 day high would break the lower-highs sequence and neutralise the range break
Reclaiming EMA(20) near 1.3357 is the first sign the Friday downside break is failing
Thin final bar into the weekly close; UK flash PMIs next week are the main catalyst that could reshape this structure
14:01 UTC
Downtrend, four straight down days · RSI 42 · price 1.33481
Successive lower highs and lower lows; Friday range broke to a new week low.
Cable has trended lower all week from the 1.3513 area, with the dominant legs coming in the London session on Thursday and again around Thursday's NY open after the BoE's 6-3 hold landed against a Fed that had just hiked. Friday's Asian and London hours coiled in a tight 1.3342-1.3375 band, and that range broke lower during NY hours to a fresh week low at 1.3335, leaving price beneath both the EMA20 near 1.3357 and the EMA50. RSI(14) sits in the low 40s without a positive divergence, and the strong August retail sales beat only cushioned the move rather than reversing it.
Support: 1.33353, 1.3330
Resistance: 1.3357, 1.33725, 1.34042
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the 1.3357 ema20 and then the 1.33725 day high would be the first break in the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.33353 week low exposes the 1.3330 round number
Only a reclaim of the 1.34042 prior day hi and the 1.3435 area would neutralise the weekly downtrend read
UK flash PMIs Wed 08:30 GMT and US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT are the next material catalysts for this structure
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 39 · price 1.33457
Lower highs and lower lows; this-week range broken downward.
Since the week opened near 1.3467 price has printed two step-downs: the first on Wednesday's hawkish Fed hike, the second into Thursday's NY session after the BoE's 6-3 hold, which took GBPUSD to a cycle low at 1.3336. The subsequent 1.3336-1.3375 consolidation has now failed, with the range top capping every attempt and today's retail sales beat producing only a shallow, short-lived lift before the NY session pushed price back to 1.3342. Price sits under both EMA20 (~1.3359) and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 39 and no bullish divergence against the prior low.
Support: 1.3342, 1.3336, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3359, 1.3375, 1.3406
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.3342 and the 1.3336 cycle low confirms continuation toward the 1.3300 psych area
An hourly close back above the 1.3375 range top and EMA20 would invalidate the range-break read
US Industrial Production later today is the last scheduled US data of the week and could shift the rate-differential driver behind this leg
Lower highs and lower lows, basing above the week low.
Cable has trended lower all week from 1.3513, with the two dominant legs both landing in the NY session — Wednesday's Fed hike and Thursday's 6-3 BoE hold — dragging price to a 1.3336 week low. Since that low, the last 24 bars have coiled in a 1.3350-1.3376 band, with this morning's large UK retail sales beat producing no follow-through and the day high capped at 1.3376. EMA(20) around 1.3362 is now flat and acting as the immediate ceiling, while price also remains well under EMA(50); RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-40s without a momentum divergence.
Support: 1.3350, 1.3336
Resistance: 1.3362, 1.3376, 1.3406
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.3376 day high and the 1.3362 ema20 would break the consolidation to the upside, with the 1.3406 prior-day high next
Loss of the 1.3350 swing low re-exposes the 1.3336 week low and confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
UK flash PMIs on Wed 23 Sep are the next high-impact GBP input and could reset this range read; US Industrial Production and Fed speakers keep the dollar leg live into the close
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling at the lows · RSI 48 · price 1.33701
Lower highs, lower lows; tight base above 1.3336.
Cable has trended lower all week from the Monday-session peak at 1.3513, with two step-downs doing the damage: the Fed's 25bp hike in Wednesday's NY session sliced 1.3449 to 1.3381 in a single bar, and Thursday's BoE hold snapped the market to a week low of 1.3336. Since then price has coiled in a 40-pip band, holding just above EMA20 near 1.3366 with RSI(14) recovering from the mid-30s to roughly 48 — momentum flat rather than turning. The pre-BoE high at 1.3406 caps the recovery attempt, while the Asia and early London sessions have printed a shallow series of higher lows off 1.3338.
Support: 1.3366, 1.3336, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3376, 1.3406
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC is the first post-BoE data test and can resolve the consolidation immediately
Loss of 1.3336 week low confirms downtrend continuation with 1.3300 round number the next reference
H1 close above 1.3406 pre-boe high would break the lower-highs sequence and invalidate the continuation read
Failure to hold EMA20 near 1.3366 would put the base back at the lower edge of the range
Two policy-driven lower lows, now basing above the week low.
Two policy events defined the week on this timeframe: the Fed's hike knocked cable from the wed high at 1.3461 down to 1.3380 in Wednesday's NY session, and Thursday's 6-3 BoE hold extended the slide to a week low at 1.3336. Since the NY close price has held a 1.3336-1.3374 base through the Asia session, reclaiming the ema20 near 1.3360 with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-50s. The prior day high at 1.3406 is the first level capping that recovery, and the sequence of lower highs off 1.3513 remains intact.
Support: 1.3360, 1.3336, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3406, 1.3461
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC falls inside the next bar — first post-BoE test of this base
Hourly closes back below ema20 near 1.3360 would negate the Asia-session recovery
Failure to hold the week low at 1.3336 confirms continuation toward the 1.3300 psych level
A close above the prior day high at 1.3406 would break the week's lower-highs sequence
Successive lower highs since Monday's high; base holding above Thursday's low.
Cable has shed roughly 150 pips from Monday's 1.3513 high, with the two decisive legs coming late in Wednesday's NY session on the Fed's hawkish 25bp hike and again in Thursday's NY hours after the BoE's 6-3 hold left hawkish positioning stranded. Price is now compressing in a tight 1.3347–1.3363 band through the Asia session, pinned just under EMA20 at 1.3366 with EMA50 at 1.3395 sloping down above and the 1.3406 prior day high marking the top of Thursday's pre-BoE shelf. RSI(14) at 40 has lifted off Thursday's low without price making a new low — the 1.3336 week low is untested since.
Support: 1.33471, 1.3336, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3366, 1.3395, 1.3406
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC is the first post-BoE data test and can break the current consolidation either way
An hourly close above the 1.3395 ema50, and then the 1.3406 prior day high, would end the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.3336 week low confirms trend extension with the 1.3300 round number the next reference
Failure to reclaim the 1.3366 ema20 keeps the four-day downtrend read intact
02:01 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling in Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.33623
Series of lower highs and lower lows; tight consolidation above the week low.
Cable has trended lower all week from Monday's 1.35195 high, with the decisive leg coming in Thursday's London session when the BoE's 6-3 hold undershot the hawkish expectations built into sterling and price dropped straight through 1.3440 to 1.3372, extending to the 1.3336 week low in NY hours against a Fed that actually hiked. Since then Asia has compressed into a 1.3351-1.3362 consolidation, still capped by the H1 EMA(20) around 1.3367, with RSI(14) recovering only to the mid-40s. The lower-highs sequence off 1.35195 through Thursday's 1.3404 rejection remains the dominant structure on this window.
Support: 1.3351, 1.3336, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3367, 1.3404
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 GMT is the immediate catalyst and can break the Asian consolidation either way
An hourly close back above the 1.3367 ema20, then 1.3404 thu high, would break the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 1.3351 range low and 1.3336 week low would confirm continuation, with 1.3300 psych the next reference
Successive lower highs and lower lows; basing above the week low.
GBPUSD has trended lower every session since Monday's open near 1.3518, with the decisive legs coming in the NY session — first the vertical drop off 1.3461 on the BoE's 6-3 hold, then a second break through 1.3350 into the 1.3336 week low as the post-Fed dollar held its bid. Price has since gone quiet in a 1.3345-1.3360 Asian range, capped by the EMA(20) around 1.3363, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s and no higher high since the break. Every rally attempt this week has stalled beneath the prior day hi, most recently at 1.3404.
Support: 1.3336, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3363, 1.3404, 1.3461
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 GMT is the immediate catalyst for this range
An hourly close back above the ema20 at 1.3363 and then 1.3404 would break the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 1.3336 week low confirms continuation and exposes the 1.3300 psych area
Sustained acceptance inside 1.3345-1.3360 turns the read to consolidation rather than trend
Sequence of lower highs and lower lows, now basing above the week low.
Cable has trended lower all week, capped by a clean lower-high line from 1.3461 down to the 1.34042 prior-day high, with the two decisive legs — the break under 1.3440 and the flush to 1.3336 — both arriving in NY hours as the post-Fed dollar bid extended and the in-line 6-3 BoE hold gave sterling nothing to hold onto. Price is now compressing in a 1.3336–1.3360 band with RSI(14) near 37 and holding a shallow bullish tilt versus the earlier low, while EMA(20) around 1.3366 continues to cap every hourly attempt higher. The spike low at 1.33495 has been reclaimed but the week low at 1.3336 is the pivot for the current base.
Support: 1.33495, 1.3336, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3366, 1.34042, 1.3445
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC is the only near-term UK print and can materially shift this read
Hourly close back above the 1.34042 prior-day high would break the week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.3336 confirms a lower low and puts the 1.3300 psych level in focus
Sustained trade back above EMA20 at 1.3366 would be the first sign the downleg is stalling