Lower highs into a 1.3335-1.3400 range, price under EMA20/EMA50.
The week's dominant move came in two event bars: the hawkish FOMC hike knocked cable ~80 pips off 1.3461 in Wednesday's NY session, and Thursday's 6-3 BoE hold extended the slide to the 1.3335 week low by Friday's London hours. Since then price has gone sideways in a 1.3335-1.3400 band, with Monday's push stalling at 1.33999 — the third session capped at the 1.3400 cap — before a steady NY-session fade back to 1.3368. Price sits below EMA20 near 1.3374 with RSI(14) around 37, cycling in the lower half of its range rather than extending.
Support: 1.33647, 1.33353, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3374, 1.3400, 1.3435
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3400 cap invalidates the range read and puts 1.3435 next barrier in play
Failure to hold the 1.33647 monday low, then the 1.3335 week low, confirms a lower-low continuation toward the 1.3300 round number
Reclaiming EMA20 at 1.3374 and holding it on a pullback would be the first sign the lower-high sequence is stalling
UK flash PMIs Wed 08:30 GMT and US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the week's high-impact prints and could reset this range
Lower highs off 1.3497, basing above 1.3336 week low.
The dominant move of the window was last week's slide from 1.3497 into the 1.3336 week low, and Monday has been pure consolidation: the pair opened near 1.3383, tagged 1.3400 in the early NY session — the 38.2% retracement of that decline — and was rejected there, drifting back to 1.3368 by the close. Price sits below both EMA(20) near 1.3379 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) at 43 unable to clear 55 on the Monday bounce, consistent with a firm dollar after last week's hawkish FOMC dots while the retail-sales beat keeps sterling downside contained. The 1.3365 Monday low and the 1.3400 cap now frame a tight 35-pip H1 range with ATR under 10 pips.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3336, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3379, 1.3400, 1.3416
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.3400 monday high invalidates the lower-highs read and opens the 1.3416 50% fib
Failure to hold 1.3365 monday low re-exposes the 1.3336 week low
Reclaim of the 1.3379 ema20 on a closing basis would be the first sign the consolidation is resolving higher
UK and US flash PMIs Wednesday are the week's main catalysts and could break this range in either direction
19:01 UTC
Mild downtrend inside this week's range · RSI 42 · price 1.33693
Lower highs since Friday's high, holding above prior-week low.
GBPUSD opened the week at 1.33831 and has drifted lower through Monday, with the early NY session attempt at the 1.3400 round number rejected and price sliding back to the day low at 1.3367. The retracement of last week's decline from 1.3497 has stalled here: price now sits below the H1 EMA20 near 1.3378 with RSI(14) around 42 and Friday close at 1.3393 unreclaimed, consistent with the firmer dollar after last week's hawkish Fed follow-through. Ranges are compressed, ATR(14) near 9 pips, so the week so far reads as consolidation rather than trend.
Support: 1.3367, 1.3350, 1.3336
Resistance: 1.3378, 1.3393, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3400 round number would end the lower highs read
Loss of the 1.3367 day low exposes the 1.3350 swing low and the 1.3336 pivot low
Reclaim of ema20 at 1.3378 and friday close at 1.3393 would neutralise the drift
UK flash PMIs Wed 08:30 GMT are the next scheduled catalyst for this pair
Lower highs off 1.3497; double bottom base at 1.3336, Monday range 1.3367-1.3400.
The week's downleg from 1.3497 bottomed into Friday's NY session at 1.3336, and that double bottom with Thursday's 1.3336 low framed a recovery that stalled exactly at the 1.3400 round number in early Monday NY hours. Since that rejection price has slid back under the 1.3379 EMA20 and the 1.3383 weekly open, closing the day near its 1.3367 day low with RSI(14) back near 39 — consistent with the digest's read of a firm USD holding post-FOMC gains while Sterling stays pinned in the mid-1.33s. Rising support off Friday's low is the nearest structural reference beneath spot.
Support: 1.3367, 1.3355, 1.3336
Resistance: 1.3379, 1.3383, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above the 1.3379 ema20 and 1.3383 weekly open would negate the Monday rejection at the round number
Loss of the 1.3367 day low puts the 1.3355 prior shelf and then the 1.3336 week low back in play, breaking the rising support off Friday's low
UK flash PMIs Wed 08:30 GMT and US flash PMIs Wed 13:45 GMT are the week's structural catalysts for this range
Fed speakers Tuesday (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin) could reprice the USD leg driving the fade
Monday range 1.3367-1.3400, lower highs into the NY close.
Sterling opened the week a touch below Friday's close and has spent Monday boxed between the 1.3400 round number and the 1.3367 day low, with the mid-NY pop to 1.3400 rejected as USD dip-buying resumed on the hawkish Fed repricing. Price now sits back under the 1.3383 weekly open and below EMA(20), RSI(14) near 39 after four consecutive lower hourly closes. The 50% retracement of Friday's rebound off 1.3335 cuts right through current price, with the fib 61.8 at 1.3360 the next reference below.
Support: 1.3367, 1.3360, 1.33353
Resistance: 1.33831, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.3367 day low extends the pullback toward fib 61.8 at 1.3360 and the 1.3335 prior wk low
Reclaim of the 1.3383 weekly open and EMA20 would neutralise Monday's downside rotation
Two failures at the 1.3400 round number keep it the cap on this consolidation
UK and US flash PMIs Wed are the week's high-impact prints and could reset this H1 range
Lower highs off 1.3497, range-bound above the 1.3335 week low.
GBPUSD opened Monday a touch below Friday's close and has spent the session drifting back into the lower half of last week's 1.3335-1.3400 band, with the push toward the 1.3399 monday high rejected during NY hours and price settling back under the EMA20 near 1.3382. Friday's bounce off the 1.3335 week low, helped by the UK retail sales beat, has lost traction as USD dip-buying resumed on the hawkish Fed dot plot. RSI(14) around 40 reflects fading upside momentum without reaching oversold.
Support: 1.33684, 1.33353
Resistance: 1.3382, 1.3393, 1.33999
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3368 monday low re-exposes the 1.3335 week low
Recovery through the 1.3393 friday close and 1.3399 monday high would break the lower-highs sequence
UK and US flash PMIs Wednesday are the week's high-impact prints and could materially shift this read
15:02 UTC
Downtrend from last week, momentum flat · RSI 44 · price 1.33772
Lower highs into a Monday range under 1.3400.
The dominant move of the window was last week's slide from 1.3497 into 1.33353, the Friday low, with the sharp legs arriving in the NY sessions on hawkish Fed pricing and the BoE's gilt-friendly QT overhaul. Monday has been a tight holiday-thin range: the NY session poke at the 1.3400 round number was rejected at 1.33999 — close to the 38.2% retracement of that impulse — and price has slipped back under EMA20 at 1.33813 and EMA50 near 1.33850. RSI(14) sits mid-40s, flat, with the 1.33684 monday low the base of the range.
Support: 1.33684, 1.33495, 1.33353
Resistance: 1.33813, 1.33999, 1.34042
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.34042, the prior high, breaks the lower-highs sequence off 1.3497
Loss of the 1.33684 monday low re-exposes the 1.33495 swing low and then the 1.33353 friday low
UK and US flash PMIs on Wed 23 Sep are the first high-impact catalysts and could reset this range read
Sustained trade back above EMA20 would neutralise the current below-EMA read
14:01 UTC
Downtrend on the week, momentum stalled · RSI 52 · price 1.33914
Lower highs into a 1.3335 base, Monday consolidating above the weekly open.
The dominant move of the week came in the European/NY hours after the BoE's 6-3 hold, a single bar shedding ~80 pips from 1.3449 and extending to a 1.3335 week base by Friday's London session. Friday's retail sales beat and the subsequent NY recovery built a double bottom off 1.3335/1.3336, and Monday's Asia and London sessions have simply consolidated in a ~30 pip band above the weekly open, with price sitting just above EMA20 near 1.3384 and RSI(14) flat in the low 50s. Attempts at the 1.3400 round number have been capped twice, once late Friday and again in the current NY hours.
Support: 1.3384, 1.3368, 1.3335
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3435
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 1.3400 round number would end the lower-high sequence and put 1.3435 strong res in play
Loss of 1.3368 monday low, and then the 1.3335 week base, would confirm continuation of the weekly downtrend
Pullbacks holding EMA20 near 1.3384 keep the Monday consolidation read intact; sustained trade below it flattens it
UK flash PMIs and US flash PMIs on Wednesday are the next scheduled catalysts capable of breaking this range
Lower highs into a 1.3335/36 double base, now coiling in a 1.3368-1.3397 Monday range below 1.3400.
The dominant move of the week came in the London-NY window mid-period, when the BoE's 6-3 hold against hawkish Fed pricing dragged cable from 1.3497 down to a 1.3335/36 double base by Friday's NY session. Friday's retail sales beat produced a recovery leg back to the fri high at 1.33975 that was faded, and Monday has been a narrow drift, with price cycling either side of the ema20 near 1.3384 between the mon low at 1.33684 and the session high; RSI(14) sits in the mid-50s after basing from oversold. The 1.34000 round number and the 1.34060 prior swing high cap the descending sequence of lower highs that has held since Friday.
Support: 1.3384, 1.33684, 1.33355
Resistance: 1.33975, 1.3400, 1.3406
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.34000 round number and the 1.33975 fri high would break the lower-highs line and expose 1.34060
Loss of the mon low at 1.33684 re-opens the 1.33355 week low and the 1.3335/36 base
Sustained trade back below the ema20 would negate Monday's higher-lows sequence off Friday's base
Fed speakers (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin) Tuesday and UK/US flash PMIs Wednesday could materially reset this range read
Lower highs into Friday's low, now flat consolidation above EMA20.
The dominant move of the week was the slide from 1.3497 on Tuesday to the 1.33353 week low on Friday, driven by the hawkish Fed hike against a BoE hold with a dovish-flavoured QT overhaul; Friday's retail sales beat only produced a shallow bounce that stalled at the 1.33978 week high, almost exactly the 38.2% retracement of that impulse. Monday has been a ~25 pip consolidation between the 1.33684 monday low and 1.3394, with price tracking just above EMA(20) and RSI(14) flat near 52. Supply has capped every probe of 1.3398 since Friday's NY session, while demand has stepped in twice around 1.3368.
Support: 1.3384, 1.33684, 1.33353
Resistance: 1.33978, 1.3435
What it said to watch
An hourly close above the 1.33978 week high would break the consolidation and put the 1.3435 pivot back in view
Loss of the 1.33684 monday low, with price slipping under ema20, reopens the 1.33353 week low
Fedspeak this afternoon (Williams, Jefferson, Barkin) is the nearest catalyst able to break the Monday range
Lower highs into Friday's low, now a tight Monday range.
The dominant move in this window was the 1.3497–1.3335 slide through Thursday and Friday's NY hours, driven by post-FOMC dollar demand after the hawkish Fed hike, with the prior high at 1.34042 capping the only meaningful bounce. Monday's sessions have been an unusually tight 30-pip affair between 1.33684 and the 1.33937 monday high, with price pinned either side of EMA(20) near 1.3383 and RSI(14) flat around 48. Friday's 1.33978 high remains the last lower high; the week low at 1.33353 is untested since the Friday rebound.
Support: 1.33684, 1.3355, 1.33353
Resistance: 1.33937, 1.33978, 1.34042
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.33684 monday low would resume the decline toward 1.3355 initial support and the 1.33353 week low
Close above the 1.33978 friday high would break the sequence of lower highs and open 1.34042
Continued sub-11-pip ATR bars keep the consolidation read; expansion out of the Monday range resolves it
Fed speakers today and UK flash PMIs Wednesday are the scheduled catalysts capable of breaking this range
Lower highs since Tuesday, two-day base above 1.3336.
The week's dominant move was down: cable slid from 1.3497 into 1.3335 in two impulses, the first on the hawkish Fed hike during Wednesday's NY session and the second through Thursday's BoE hold and into Friday, with Friday's retail sales beat only good for a bounce. Since Friday's low at 1.3335 price has built a two-day base, buyers stepping in twice near 1.3336, and Monday's Asia/London hours have churned in a tight 1.3368–1.3394 band with price pinned to a flattening EMA20 at 1.3380. RSI(14) has recovered from oversold into the mid-40s without reclaiming 50, matching the loss of downside momentum rather than a change of structure.
Support: 1.3380, 1.3368, 1.3335
Resistance: 1.3398, 1.3435
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3368 monday low re-opens the 1.3335 friday low and the 1.3300 area
Acceptance above the 1.3398 friday high is the first condition to challenge 1.3435 / the 100-day sma
Loss of the 1.3380 ema20 on a closing basis returns price to the lower half of the two-day base
UK and US flash PMIs on Wednesday are the week's main scheduled risk to this range read
07:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalled in tight range · RSI 45 · price 1.33732
Lower highs since Wednesday's 1.3496; twin lows at 1.3335 intact, Monday trading inside Friday's range.
The dominant move of the window came in two USD-led legs: the FOMC hike late in Wednesday's NY session knocked cable ~70 pips in one bar, and the BoE's 6-3 hold on Thursday extended the slide to the 1.3335 week low, retested in Friday's London hours. Friday's NY recovery stalled at 1.33978, which coincides with the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday-to-Friday decline, and Monday's thin, holiday-affected Asia session has drifted back off the 1.33937 asia high with EMA(20) near 1.3380 now capping. RSI(14) at 45 is mid-range with no divergence against the twin lows; ATR has compressed to ~12 pips, the tightest of the window.
Support: 1.3372, 1.3350, 1.33353
Resistance: 1.3380, 1.33937, 1.33978
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3372 session low reopens the 1.3350 thu-fri base and the 1.33353 week low
An hourly close above the 1.33978 friday high would break the lower highs sequence off Wednesday
Reclaiming and holding the 1.3380 ema20 is the first condition for the consolidation to resolve higher
Fed's Goolsbee later today and UK/US flash PMIs on Wednesday are the next catalysts capable of breaking this range
Lower highs since Wednesday, double bottom base at 1.3335/1.3336.
The week's dominant move came in one hour: Wednesday's hawkish Fed hike knocked cable from 1.3461 to 1.3381, and Thursday's 6-3 BoE hold extended the slide to 1.3336 before Friday's retail sales beat produced a recovery that stalled at 1.3398. Demand has now stepped in twice within two pips of each other (1.3336 Thursday, 1.3335 Friday), forming a double bottom base, while the sequence of lower highs from 1.3406 into Friday's close still caps the upside. Monday's Asia session has drifted from 1.3394 back to 1.3374, leaving price just under both EMA(20) and EMA(50) around 1.3379 with RSI(14) in the low 40s.
Support: 1.33734, 1.33353, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33937, 1.33978, 1.3406
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.33978 friday high would break the lower-highs sequence
Loss of the 1.3335 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3300 round number
Reclaiming the 1.3379 EMA(20) area is the first sign the Monday fade is stalling
Fed's Goolsbee at 10:30 GMT today and UK flash PMIs Wednesday 08:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs into a tight Asia consolidation above Friday's low.
The week's dominant move was a steady slide from 1.3497 early on to Friday's 1.3335 week low, with the sharpest legs coming in the London-NY transition on Wednesday and Thursday after the 6-3 BoE hold underdelivered against hawkish expectations and a firm dollar held its bid. Friday's retail sales beat only produced a bounce to the 1.3398 fri high before fading, and Monday's Asia session has gapped slightly lower and coiled in a 20-pip band under the 1.3394 monday high. Price is pinned either side of EMA(20) near 1.3381 with RSI(14) back at the midline — the impulse is spent, the lower-high sequence is not.
Support: 1.33734, 1.33353, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33937, 1.33978, 1.3435
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.33734 asia low re-opens the 1.3335 week low and the 1.3300 psych area
Acceptance above the 1.3398 fri high would break the week's lower-high sequence; 1.3435 remains the cap above
Fed's Goolsbee later today, then Wednesday's UK and US flash PMIs, are the events most likely to break this consolidation
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce off the lows · RSI 58 · price 1.33823
Lower highs since Tuesday, double btm base at 1.3335.
The week's dominant move came in two steps: the hawkish Fed at the Wednesday NY session cut 70 pips in a single bar from 1.3449, then the BoE's hawkish hold on Thursday drove cable to 1.3336. Friday's NY session absorbed a retest at 1.3335 and rebounded to 1.3398, leaving a double btm base, and Monday's Asia session has coiled in a 15-pip band just above the EMA(20) with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-50s. The 1.3398 fri high caps the rebound so far, with 1.3406 pre-boe high the next reference above.
Support: 1.3379, 1.3335, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3398, 1.3406, 1.3435
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 1.3379 asia low re-exposes the 1.3335 double btm and the 1.3300 psych level
A close above the 1.3398 fri high extends the rebound toward 1.3406 pre-boe high and the 1.3435 strong res
Fed's Goolsbee later today and UK flash PMIs Wednesday are the catalysts most likely to break this Asia consolidation
Lower highs into last week's low, now basing in a tight Asia range above EMA20/EMA50.
Last week's dominant move was a grind lower from 1.3497 to the 1.33353 week low, accelerating in the NY session after the hawkish-hold BoE and a hawkish Fed widened the rate differential. Friday's NY hours produced the only real bounce, topping at the friday high of 1.33978 — effectively the 38.2% retracement of that week down-leg — and the new week gapped ~10 pips lower on the open before compressing into a 1.3379–1.3394 Asia range. Price is sitting just above ema20 near 1.3377 with RSI(14) back at ~59 from oversold, and ATR has collapsed to roughly 12 pips.
Support: 1.3379, 1.3377, 1.33353
Resistance: 1.33978, 1.3406, 1.3435
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the friday high at 1.33978 would break the 38.2% fib cap and put the 1.3406 prior swing in play, with 1.3435 the next strong res
Loss of the monday low at 1.3379 and ema20 re-opens the path toward the 1.33353 week low
Continued sub-13 pip hourly ranges keep this a consolidation read rather than trend continuation
Fed speakers today and Wednesday's UK/US flash PMIs are the next catalysts capable of breaking this range
Lower highs from 1.3497 into a 1.3336 double bottom, now consolidating under 1.3398.
The dominant move of the week was the slide from 1.3497 into Thursday's London/NY sessions after the 6-3 BoE hold and QT overhaul, compounded by the hawkish Fed repricing that lifted the dollar to seven-week highs. Friday's NY session carved a second low at 1.33353 against Thursday's 1.3336 and rebounded to 1.33978, leaving price now back above EMA(20) with RSI(14) recovered into the low 60s. Thin Asia-session flow has pinned cable in a 1.3379-1.3394 band around the weekend reopen, well inside Friday's range.
Support: 1.33775, 1.33353, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.33978, 1.3406, 1.3435
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 1.33978 friday high would extend the corrective leg toward the 1.34060 prior high; nothing changes structurally below 1.34350 strong resist
An hourly close back under the 1.33353 friday low confirms a lower low and reopens the 1.33000 psych area
Loss of the EMA20 near 1.33775 would end the bounce and return control to the week's lower-high sequence
UK flash PMIs Wed 08:30 UTC and US S&P Global PMIs Wed 13:45 UTC are the events most likely to reshape this read
Series of lower highs/lower lows, now basing above a double low at 1.3335.
Cable spent the week grinding lower from 1.3497 to a 1.3335 week low, the bulk of the damage coming in the London-NY windows after the BoE's 6-3 hold plus QT overhaul and the Fed's hawkish 4% hike; Friday's retail sales beat produced only a brief pop that faded. The NY session on Friday turned back up off 1.3335 — matching Thursday's 1.3336 low — and reclaimed EMA(20), with Monday's thin Asia session holding a tight 1.3379-1.3394 consolidation after a small weekend gap lower. RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-50s from oversold territory, but 1.3398 friday high still caps the recovery.
Support: 1.3377, 1.3335, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3398, 1.3406, 1.3445
What it said to watch
Hourly close above 1.3398 friday high, then 1.3406 thu high, would break the week's lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.3335 week low invalidates the double bottom and confirms a fresh lower low toward the 1.3300 psych area
Failure to hold EMA(20) near 1.3377 would put the bounce structure back in question
UK flash PMIs Wed 08:30 UTC and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC are the week's main catalysts for this read