Lower highs from 1.3256; tight 1.3210–1.3222 box in early Asia.
GBP/USD has printed lower highs since the 1.3256 London high. The NY-afternoon spike to the 1.3240 spike high met rejection and faded to a 1.3204 day low as hawkish Fed talk and the claims beat kept USD bid. Early Asia is compressing in a 1.3210 range low to 1.3222 range top box just above the 1.3200 psych handle, with ATR near 4 pips.
Support: 1.3210, 1.3204, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3222, 1.3240, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3204 day low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 1.3200 psych handle
Recovery above the 1.3222 range top, then through the falling trendline near the 1.3240 spike high, breaks the lower-high chain
Fed's Williams 09:15 UTC, US durables 12:30 UTC and UoM 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY · RSI 43 · price 1.32151
Lower highs and lower lows; tight post-NY range 1.3210–1.3221.
The London high at 1.3256 faded, and hawkish Fed talk plus US data beats kept USD bid into a NY day low at 1.3204. The 16:15 UTC NY spike to 1.3240 met rejection under the London-high trendline, and price is now pinned in a 1.3210–1.3221 range as Asia opens, with ATR contracting.
Support: 1.3210, 1.32041
Resistance: 1.32222, 1.32399, 1.32557
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3222 lower high breaks the post-NY range and puts the 1.3240 NY spike back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3210 range floor exposes the 1.3204 day low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
Close above the London-high trendline (~1.3230s) would break the lower-high sequence off 1.3256
Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables/UoM on Friday could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after NY low · RSI 48 · price 1.32159
Lower highs from London high; tight range above day low.
London sold off the 1.3256 session high and broke the Asian range low near 1.3223. In NY, a spike to 1.3240 met rejection and price slid to a 1.3204 day low as hawkish Fed talk and firm US data kept the USD bid. Since then GBPUSD has compressed between the 1.3210 range low and the 1.3222 range top into the Asia session. RSI(14) is flat near 48 and ATR is only about 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.3210, 1.32041
Resistance: 1.3222, 1.3240
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3222 range top, and then the lower highs line near 1.3228, would break the lower-high sequence and bring the 1.3240 ny spike back into view
Failure to hold the 1.3210 range low exposes the 1.3204 day low
UK GfK consumer confidence at 23:01 UTC (f/c -16) could jolt the thin Asian range
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC could move USD before US durables later Friday
23:01 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near day low · RSI 48 · price 1.32157
Lower highs from London high; tight post-NY range 1.3210–1.3222.
London capped at the 1.3256 high, then broke below the Asian range low at 1.3223 as hawkish Fed speakers and US data beats kept USD bid. A 16:15 UTC spike high at 1.3240 met rejection and slid to the 1.3204 day low. Early Asia session is compressing in a 1.3210 range floor to 1.3222 range top band, price pinned at EMA20, RSI(14) neutral near 48 and ATR(14) around 4.6 pips.
Support: 1.3210, 1.32041, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3222, 1.32399
What it said to watch
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC, due at the open of the next bar, could break the Asia-session compression
M15 close below the 1.3204 day low and the 1.3200 psych handle extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 1.3222 range top and the lower-highs trendline ends the compression; the 1.3240 spike high is the next cap, near the 38.2% of the London high–day low fib
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC Friday is the next USD-side risk for this read
Lower highs from London high; tight 1.3210–1.3222 range after NY low.
GBP/USD has printed lower highs since the 1.3256 london high. The NY spike high at 1.3240 met rejection and gave way to a day low at 1.3204 as hawkish Fed talk and US claims beats kept USD bid. Since then price has sat in a 1.3210–1.3222 range after the NY close, with ATR shrinking to ~5 pips.
Support: 1.3210, 1.32041
Resistance: 1.3222, 1.3240, 1.32557
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3210 range low exposes the 1.3204 day low
Close above the 1.3222 range top puts the 1.3240 spike high and the descending trendline back in focus
GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could jolt the thin after-hours range
Fed's Williams Fri 09:15 UTC is the next USD risk event
Lower highs from 1.3256 day high; tight 1.3210–1.3222 range since 18:00 UTC.
Lower highs ran from the 1.32557 London day high to the 1.32399 NY spike high. The NY session then set a session low at 1.32041, below the 1.3209 June low, as hawkish Fed talk and US data beats kept USD bid. Since 18:00 UTC price has compressed into a ~12-pip range between the 1.3210 range low and the 1.3222 range high into the Asia handover, with RSI(14) neutral near 45 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 1.32101, 1.32041, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32222, 1.32399, 1.32557
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3222 range high breaks the post-NY consolidation; the lower-high line and the 50% fib of the day high–session low move converge near 1.3230
Failure to hold the 1.3210 range low exposes the 1.32041 session low and the 1.3200 round number
Spike high at 1.32399 and the 1.32557 day high cap today's lower-high sequence; a reclaim of either changes the downtrend read
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC (f/c -16) lands in thin Asia liquidity and is the only near-term GBP print
London faded from the 1.32557 session high into a lower-low chain as hawkish Fed talk and US claims beats kept USD bid. The NY spike high at 1.32399 was rejected, and a 1.32041 session low printed near 18:00 UTC. Since the NY close, price has been compressing between the 1.3210 swing lows and a 1.3221 range cap, with RSI(14) neutral near 43.
Support: 1.3210, 1.32041, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3221, 1.32335, 1.32399
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.32041 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.3200 psych
Hold above 1.3221 range cap exposes the 1.32335 swing high and the falling trendline
Reclaim of the 1.32399 spike high breaks the London downtrend structure
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could jolt the thin early Asia session
21:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing late session · RSI 44 · price 1.32124
Lower highs and lower lows since London; tight 1.3209–1.3222 range into Asia open.
London faded the 1.3256 high through the Asian low, and NY rejected a spike high at 1.3240 before printing a session low at 1.3204, as hawkish Fed talk and US data beats kept USD bid. Price is now compressing between the ny low at 1.3209 and the range top at 1.3222 under a line of lower highs, RSI(14) neutral near 44.
Support: 1.3209, 1.3204
Resistance: 1.3222, 1.3240
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3222 range top breaks the compression and puts the 1.3240 spike high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3209 ny low and 1.3204 session low extends the lower-low chain
A break above the lower highs trendline would negate the intraday downtrend read
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could jolt the thin Asian range
21:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into late NY · RSI 47 · price 1.32182
Lower highs and lower lows from the London high; tight range above the day low.
London swept the Asian range high to 1.3256, then printed a lower-high, lower-low sequence down to a 1.3204 day low during NY hours. USD stayed bid on hawkish Fed commentary and the jobless claims beat. Late NY is compressing in a 1.3211–1.3222 range around EMA20, with RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 1.32111, 1.32041
Resistance: 1.32222, 1.32299, 1.32399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3222 range top opens the fib 50% at 1.3230 and the 1.3240 fix high
Descending trendline from the London high, near 1.3232 now, defines the lower-high sequence; a close above it breaks the downtrend read
Loss of the 1.3211 range floor exposes the 1.3204 day low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could jolt thin Asia-session liquidity
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, drifting near lows into late NY · RSI 39 · price 1.32113
Lower lows from London high; late-NY rebound capped at 1.3222.
After the rejection at the 1.3256 London high, GBP has sold off in a lower-low sequence. The fourth-day slide came on a hawkish Fed chorus and US claims beats, and NY printed a day low at 1.3204, just under the 1.3209 June low. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 1.3222 lower high, and price is back sitting on the 1.3209 NY low with RSI(14) near 39 in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 1.32093, 1.32041
Resistance: 1.32222, 1.32399, 1.32557
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3204 day low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 1.3222 lower high, then the 1.3240 spike high, breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could jolt thin Asia-session liquidity
A 50% retrace of the london-ny leg sits near 1.3230, just above the 1.3222 lower high
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing late NY · RSI 39 · price 1.32162
Lower highs from London high; tight 1.3204–1.3222 band after NY.
Lower highs since the 1.3256 London high, with the NY spike to 1.3240 fully rejected as hawkish Fed talk and US data beats kept USD bid. Price slipped under the 1.3209 NY low to a 1.3204 day low. Late NY is now compressing between 1.3204 and the 1.3222 lower high, RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.3209, 1.3204
Resistance: 1.3222, 1.3240, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3222 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the ny spike at 1.3240
Failure to hold the 1.3204 day low, after the 1.3209 ny low gave way, extends the lower-low sequence
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could jolt the thin post-NY range
Break above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.3256 london high would negate the intraday downtrend
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing into late NY · RSI 41 · price 1.3220
Lower lows from London high; tight range near session low.
London's false break above the Asian range to the 1.3256 london high reversed into a chain of lower lows. The NY spike to the 1.3240 ny high faded fully as hawkish Fed talk and strong US claims kept USD bid. Price is now compressing between the ny lows near 1.3210 and a 1.3222 range cap, just above the 1.3204 session low, with RSI(14) near 41 and price hugging EMA20.
Support: 1.3210, 1.3204
Resistance: 1.3222, 1.3240, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3222 range cap ends the late-NY consolidation
Failure to hold the 1.3204 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.3240 ny high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the london high
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC) and US durables (12:30 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs and lower lows through London and NY · RSI 40 · price 1.32154
Asian high swept then Asian low broken; post-NY drift near the session low.
The London open swept the Asian high at 1.3250 into 1.3256, then reversed and broke the Asian low near 1.3223. Hawkish Fed talk and a firm jobless claims print extended the slide in NY. The 16:15 UTC spike high at 1.3240 was rejected, and price printed a session low at 1.3204. Price is now drifting after NY between 1.3211 and the 1.3222 swing high, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.3209, 1.32041, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32222, 1.32399, 1.32502
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3222 swing high puts the 1.3240 spike high and the 50–61.8% zone of the London-NY leg back in view
Failure to hold the 1.3209 swing low exposes the 1.3204 session low and the 1.3200 round number
Reclaiming the 1.3250 asian high would negate the lower-high sequence
UK GfK consumer confidence at 23:01 UTC could jolt thin Asia session trade
19:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 47 · price 1.32155
Lower highs from 1.3256 London high, lower lows to 1.3204 session low.
London swept the Asian range high into the 1.3256 london high and reversed, and the lower-high trendline has held since. The 16:15 UTC ny spike to 1.3240 was fully rejected, and price then set a 1.3204 session low as the 7-year auction cleared at 5.085% and the hawkish-Fed USD bid extended. Late NY hours: price is compressing near 1.3215 between the 1.3209 swing lows and a 1.3222 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.3209, 1.3204, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3222, 1.3240, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3204 session low extends the lower-low chain, with the 1.3200 round number next
A close above the 1.3222 lower high and the 38.2% fib (1.3224) challenges the downtrend read; the lower-high trendline sits near 1.3234
A recovery through the 1.3240 ny spike high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 1.3256 london high above
UK GfK consumer confidence at 23:01 UTC could jolt thin post-NY liquidity
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into late NY · RSI 45 · price 1.32123
Lower highs and lower lows since London high at 1.3256.
London's push above the Asian range to 1.3256 failed. Strong US claims and rising yields then drove a lower-high, lower-low chain through NY, and the 16:15 UTC spike high at 1.3240 was fully rejected before a session low at 1.3204. Late in NY hours, price is drifting near 1.3212 under the 1.3222 lower high, with RSI(14) mid-40s and ATR about 9 pips.
Support: 1.32041, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32222, 1.32399
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3222 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3204 session low exposes the 1.3200 round number
Reclaiming the 1.3240 spike high would negate the post-NY rejection read
UK GfK consumer confidence at 23:01 UTC could jolt thin late-session liquidity
Lower highs from 1.3256 and lower lows to 1.3204, Asian range broken lower.
London's push above the Asian range to the 1.3256 london high failed. The range then broke lower, and NY printed a 1.3209 swing low before a 1.3204 day low, as strong US claims and a 5.085% 7-year auction kept USD bid. Late-NY bounce is stalling just under the former 1.3223 asian low, at the 50% of the 1.3240–1.3204 drop; RSI(14) near 49, price hugging EMA20.
Support: 1.32093, 1.32041, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32227, 1.32399, 1.32557
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3204 day low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3200 round number
Holding the 1.3209 swing low and a close above the 1.3223 asian low opens a retest of the 1.3240 ny high
Close above the 1.3240 ny high breaks the descending trendline from the 1.3256 london high and invalidates the lower-high read
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could jolt thin post-NY trade
Lower highs from 1.3256 London high; fresh day low 1.3204 late NY.
London swept the Asian range high near 1.3250 to 1.3256 and was rejected. Beats in US jobless claims and hawkish Fed commentary kept pressure on through NY. The 16:15 UTC spike to 1.3240 printed a lower high and faded, a new day low at 1.3204 followed, and price now sits at 1.3215, just under the ema20 and below the prior low zone at 1.3209.
Support: 1.3209, 1.3204
Resistance: 1.3219, 1.3240, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 near 1.3219 would stall the latest leg down
Close above the 1.3240 lower high invalidates the lower-high trendline read and brings the 1.3256 london high back into view
Failure to hold the 1.3209 prior low and the 1.3204 day low extends the lower-low chain
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could shift the thin post-NY read
Lower lows below the Asian range; lower-high sequence from the London high.
GBPUSD failed at the 1.3256 London high and broke the 1.3223 Asian low, grinding lower through NY as strong US claims and hawkish Fedspeak kept USD bid. The 16:15 UTC spike to 1.3240 met rejection and was fully retraced to a new session low at 1.3204, below the 1.3209 swing low. Price is now bouncing after London close near the 50% spike retrace at 1.3220, with RSI(14) neutral around 52 and price sitting just under EMA20.
Support: 1.3209, 1.3204, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3223, 1.3240, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the Asian low at 1.3223 (50–61.8% of the spike retrace) would stall the lower-low chain
Break of the 1.3240 spike high and the descending trendline from the London high would end the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3209 swing low and 1.3204 session low exposes the 1.3200 round number
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could jolt price in thin Asia session liquidity
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 47 · price 1.32165
Lower highs from 1.3256; Asian low broken, fresh session low at 1.3204.
London faded from the 1.3256 London high through the 1.3223 Asian low, and NY extended the slide on the US claims beat and hawkish Fed repricing. The NY spike high at 1.3240 was rejected under the descending trendline, and late NY swept the 1.3209 lows to a 1.3204 session low before closing back near 1.3217. RSI(14) sits in the high 40s and ATR(14) is about 9.5 pips.
Support: 1.32041, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32227, 1.32399, 1.32557
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3204 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.3223 Asian low, then the 50% fib near 1.3230, would neutralise the late-session breakdown
A break above the descending trendline and the 1.3240 spike high invalidates the lower-high read
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC is the next GBP print in thin post-NY trade
Lower highs from London high 1.3256; base at 1.3209–1.3210 tested twice.
London faded from the 1.3256 London high. The 16:00 UTC NY spike to 1.3240 stalled at the 61.8% of that drop and extended the lower highs, with price back on the 1.3209 session low late in NY as strong US claims and higher yields keep USD bid.
Support: 1.3209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3240, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3209 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.3240 NY high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 1.3256 London high next above
A third hold at 1.3209 would mark it as an intraday base
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could jolt thin post-NY trade
Lower-high/lower-low chain from London high; late-NY spike fully faded.
Selling from the 1.3256 London high and firm US claims data drove the slide to a 1.3209 session low, with highs capped by a descending trendline. The late-NY spike to 1.3240 stalled at the 61.8% fib and has fully retraced, putting price back below the 1.3223 Asian low and pressing the session low.
Support: 1.3209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3223, 1.3240, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3209 session low confirms a fresh lower-low, with the 1.3200 round number next
Reclaim of the 1.3223 Asian low, then a break of the 1.3240 spike high and descending trendline, invalidates the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the 1.3256 London high would reverse the day's structure
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC is minor. US yields remain the main driver
Lower highs from London high, fresh session low at 1.3209.
Lower highs have capped every bounce since the 1.3256 london high, and NY hours printed a session low at 1.3209 as firm US claims and higher yields extended the slide. A late spike to 1.3240 met rejection and was faded back to the 61.8% of that spike near 1.3221, with price under EMA20.
Support: 1.32143, 1.32093
Resistance: 1.32335, 1.32399, 1.32557
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 1.3209 session low extends the lower-low sequence; 1.3214 london low is the first shelf above it
Reclaim of the 1.3234 lower high and 1.3240 spike high breaks the lower-highs trendline read, with 1.3256 london high above
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could jolt the thin post-NY tape
Lower highs from London high broken by 16:15 UTC spike, now retracing.
London open pushed above the Asian range to the london high at 1.32557, then reversed. NY extended the fourth-day slide to a day low of 1.32093 after strong US claims and home sales, before a 16:15 UTC spike to 1.32399 broke the descending line from the London high. Late NY, after London close, price is fading into the 38.2% spike retrace near 1.3228, above ema20 at 1.3224 and sitting on EMA50, with RSI(14) at 54.
Support: 1.3224, 1.32093
Resistance: 1.32399, 1.32557
What it said to watch
Holding ema20 at 1.3224 and the 50% spike retrace at 1.3225 keeps the break of the descending line intact
M15 close back below the 1.32093 day low resumes the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 1.32399 spike high opens the path toward 1.3250 and the 1.32557 london high
UK GfK consumer confidence at 23:01 UTC lands in thin Asia session liquidity
Lower highs from 1.3256 London high, triple test of 1.3209 session low, spike bounce capped at 1.3240.
London pushed through the 1.3245 Asian high to 1.3256. US data beats in claims and new home sales then drove a lower-high slide to three tests of the 1.3209 session low during NY. A 23-pip spike at 16:15 UTC cleared the lower-high line but met rejection at the 1.3240 bounce high, just above the 61.8% fib. Price is now easing into the 38.2% fib at 1.3227, sitting on the EMA50, with RSI(14) near 53.
Support: 1.3227, 1.3215, 1.3209
Resistance: 1.3240, 1.3245, 1.3256
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3215 swing lows exposes the 1.3209 session low; a break there negates the triple bottom and resumes the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 1.3240 bounce high opens the 1.3245 Asian high and 1.3256 London high
Holding the 38.2% fib keeps the bounce intact after London close
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could jolt thin Asia-session liquidity
London lower-high chain broken by a 16:15 UTC spike; price back inside the Asian range.
London sold off from the 1.3256 london high through the Asian low at 1.3223 to a 1.3209 session low, extending the USD bid after firm claims and new home sales. A 16:15 UTC spike broke the London downtrend line and tagged 1.3240, a spike high near the 61.8% fib, where it met rejection. Price is now back inside the Asian range, holding near the 50% retracement.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3209
Resistance: 1.3240, 1.3250, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3223 asian low re-exposes the 1.3209 session low and resumes the lower-low chain
Close above the 1.3240 spike high opens the 1.3250 asian high and the 1.3256 london high
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC (f/c -16); a soft print could shift this read during the Asia session
Lower-high chain from 1.3256 broken; triple low at 1.3209.
London open probed the 1.3256 day high and was rejected. Price then bled to a 1.3209 session low as USD stayed bid on the claims and new home sales beats. After London close, the three-touch base at 1.3209 gave way to a 25-pip spike through the lower-high line and the 1.3233 lower high, reclaiming the 1.3225 July low; the 1.3240 spike high stalled at the 61.8% of the London sell-off, with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR around 9 pips.
Support: 1.32335, 1.3225, 1.32093
Resistance: 1.32399, 1.32502, 1.32557
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3233 lower high would mark the spike as a false break
Close above the 1.3240 spike high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 1.3250 Asian high
Loss of the 1.3225 July low returns focus to the 1.3209 session low
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC (f/c -16): a soft print could reopen the session low
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 44 · price 1.32206
Lower highs from London peak; three-touch base at 1.3209.
Rejection at the 1.3256 session high early in London started a slide through the 1.3223 asian low. The move extended to 1.3209 in NY hours as US claims and new home sales beat and kept the USD bid. Late NY shows a small base after three tests of the 1.3209 session low; price is now pressing the descending trendline and the broken asian low from below, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 1.3214, 1.3209
Resistance: 1.3223, 1.3233, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3223 asian low reclaims the broken range floor and tests the descending trendline
Break above the 1.3233 ny high ends the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.3214 london low and the 1.3209 session low resumes the downtrend
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could shift this read in thin Asia trade
Lower highs and lower lows since London false break.
London's false break above the Asian high to 1.3256 reversed into a lower-highs sequence. Firm US claims and new home sales then extended the slide to a 1.3209 session low, below the early-July area near 1.3225. After London close, price is compressing between 1.3209 and the 1.3220 lower high, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.3209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3220, 1.32335, 1.32446
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3220 lower high breaks the compression, with the 1.3233 NY high next overhead
Failure to hold the 1.3209 session low exposes the 1.3200 round number
Reclaiming the 1.3245 Asian high invalidates the lower-highs trendline read
UK GfK consumer confidence at 23:01 UTC (f/c -16); a soft print could shift this read
16:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 41 · price 1.3213
Lower highs from London high, Asian range broken lower, compressing above session low.
London open spiked to the 1.3256 london high and faded, breaking the Asian low at 1.3223 (near early-July lows) as USD extended on sub-200K claims and firm home sales. The decline since then has printed lower highs, with NY capped at 1.3234 and a fresh session low at 1.3209; price is compressing just above it with RSI(14) near 41, not stretched.
Support: 1.3209, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3223, 1.3234, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.3223 asian low would signal the range break failing
Close above the 1.3234 ny high, also the 50% retrace of the decline, breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold 1.3209 session low exposes the 1.3200 round number
UK GfK consumer confidence at 23:01 UTC could shift GBP in the Asia session
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 44 · price 1.3217
LH/LL chain from London high; below Asian range low.
London open spiked to a 1.3256 London high above the Asian range, then sold off through the Asian low at 1.3223 (July low area) as USD extended on sub-200K claims. NY has printed lower highs under a descending trendline, with the 1.3210 session low tested twice; RSI(14) mid-40s, ATR ~9 pips.
Support: 1.3210, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3223, 1.3233, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3223 July low puts price back inside the Asian range and tests the descending trendline
Close above the 1.3233 lower high (50% fib) breaks the NY lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.3210 session low exposes the 1.3200 round number
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could move GBP into the Asia session
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London and NY · RSI 41 · price 1.32121
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.32557 London high; price holding below the Asian range low.
London briefly broke above the Asian range to 1.32557, then fully reversed. NY extended the slide through the 1.32227 Asian low and the July-low area to a 1.32096 session low, after US jobless claims beat and firm yields kept USD bid. A trendline of lower highs from the London top is still capping each bounce, and RSI(14) near 41 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.32096, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32195, 1.32227, 1.32335
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.32227 asian low would negate the range break
A close above the 1.32335 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline and the 50% fib of the London-NY leg
Failure to hold the 1.32096 session low opens the 1.3200 round number
A bounce that stalls at the 1.32195 lower high keeps the downtrend sequence intact
UK GfK consumer confidence at 23:01 UTC could shift the Asia session read
LH/LL sequence from London high; trading below broken Asian low.
London faded from the 1.3256 london high and broke the Asian low near 1.3223 as USD firmed on higher yields; NY added a fresh low at 1.3210 after the US claims and new home sales beats. Lower highs are respected along the descending trendline, and the Asian low is now capping on retests. RSI(14) at 43 is neutral, not stretched.
Support: 1.3210, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3223, 1.3233, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3233 ny high breaks the lower-high chain and the descending trendline
Asian low at 1.3223 capping retests; reclaiming it shifts the read toward a range
Failure to hold 1.3210 ny low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3200 round number
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could move GBP into the Asia session
Lower highs since London open; midday 1.3215 floor broken.
London's push above the Asian high failed at 1.3256. GBPUSD has since carved a lower-high chain through the Asian low at 1.3223, and in NY hours it broke the 1.3215 broken floor after firm US claims and new home sales. It now sits at a 1.3210 session low with RSI(14) near 34 and ATR around 8 pips.
Support: 1.32102, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3215, 1.32227, 1.32335
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3215 broken floor would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3210 session low exposes the 1.3200 psych level
A recovery through the 1.3234 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the intraday down-sequence
UK GfK consumer confidence at 23:01 UTC could shift the read after NY close
14:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 38 · price 1.32137
Lower highs from 1.3256; 1.3214-1.3216 floor being probed.
GBPUSD failed at the 1.3256 London high and broke below the 1.3223 Asian low, printing lower highs as US yields and upbeat US claims kept the dollar bid. The NY high at 1.3234 capped the post-data bounce, and price is now pressing the 1.3214-1.3216 floor with a fresh session low at 1.3213. RSI(14) near 38 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 1.32129, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32227, 1.32335, 1.32557
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 1.3213 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3200 psych level
M15 close back above the 1.3223 Asian low turns the break into a false break
Break of the lower highs line and the 1.3234 NY high invalidates the intraday downtrend read; 1.3256 London high is the next cap
UK GfK consumer confidence at 23:01 UTC could shift the read during Asia
Lower highs since London open; NY compressing in a 1.3214–1.3234 band.
London faded from 1.3256 and broke the asian low at 1.3223 and Wednesday's NY low, printing a session low at 1.3214 as the USD stayed bid on firm claims and new home sales. NY has tested the 1.3215 area three times without a fresh low. Price is pinned under the broken asian low, with the ny high at 1.3234 capping the lower-high trendline.
Support: 1.32145, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32227, 1.32335, 1.32502
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3214 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3200 round number
Close back above the 1.3223 asian low and the 1.3234 ny high breaks the lower-high trendline and opens the 1.3250 asian high
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC (f/c -16); a weak print adds GBP pressure near the lows
Lower highs from London high, tight base at 1.3215.
London faded from the 1.3256 London high and broke below the 1.3223 Asian low as the USD bid on hot PMIs and 5%+ yields persisted. The 1.3215 session low has absorbed three tests since mid-London, while rebounds stall at the 1.3233 swing high near the 38.2% fib, leaving a 1.3215–1.3233 box below EMA20.
Support: 1.3215, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3223, 1.3233, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3215 session low opens the 1.3200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.3223 asian low and a close above the 1.3233 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
BoE Lombardelli speaking now (14:00 UTC); a dovish tilt could extend the break, while hawkish lines are largely priced
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could move price in the Asia session
Lower highs from London high; tight base at 1.3214–1.3216.
After a rejection at the 1.3256 London high, London broke below the Asian range and set a 1.3214 session low. The dollar stayed bid on hot PMIs and firm claims. Since then GBPUSD has held a tight base at 1.3214–1.3216, while the post-claims bounce formed a lower high at 1.3234, just short of the 50% retracement.
Support: 1.3214, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3234, 1.3245, 1.3256
What it said to watch
BoE Lombardelli at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3214 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.3200 psych
Close above the 1.3234 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 1.3245 asian high
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into a flat floor · RSI 43 · price 1.32185
Lower highs from the London high; lows holding 1.3214–1.3216.
GBPUSD reversed from the 1.3256 London high and broke below the Asian range, extending the USD bid on hot PMIs and firm claims. It has since set lower highs against a flat 1.3214–1.3216 floor that has been tested three times since mid-London. The early-NY bounce to the 1.3234 NY high faded back to the session low; price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 1.32145, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32335, 1.32557
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3214 session low breaks the flat floor and exposes the 1.3200 round number
Close above the 1.3234 NY high and the descending trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence; 1.3256 London high is next above
BoE Lombardelli and US New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London high; 1.3215–1.3233 range in NY.
London faded from the 1.3256 london high to 1.3214, breaking the 1.3223 asia low as Fed-hike repricing kept USD firm. The 1.3215 triple low held through the London-NY transition and the claims print, while the bounce was rejected at the 1.3233 range top near the 38.2% fib. Price is mid-range at EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3215
Resistance: 1.3233, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3215 triple low confirms a lower-low and extends the downtrend
M15 close above the 1.3233 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and opens 1.3256 london high
Asia low 1.3223 is the mid-range pivot; holding above it keeps price inside the range
BoE Lombardelli and US New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could break the range either way
Lower highs since London; base at 1.3215, retesting 1.3232.
London made a false break of the Asian high at 1.3250, printed a london high at 1.3256, then sold through the asian low at 1.3223 on broad USD strength. The session low at 1.3215 has held three tests, including the dip on the US claims beat. The 12:45 bar has lifted price back into the Asian range and above the London downtrend line to the 1.3232 swing high, which sits at the 38.2% retrace.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3215
Resistance: 1.3232, 1.3250, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3232 swing high opens the 50–61.8% zone (1.3235–1.3240) and the asian high at 1.3250
Slip back below the asian low at 1.3223 puts the 1.3215 session low back in play; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Paulson (13:00 UTC), plus BoE Lombardelli and US New Home Sales (14:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
London swept the asian high at 1.3250 to a 1.3256 london high, then reversed through the Asian low toward a 1.3214 session low as USD strength persisted. The 12:30 UTC claims beat drove a retest of that session low that held, and price is basing between 1.3214 and the 1.3232 swing high into NY hours. Price is below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 1.3214, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3232, 1.3250, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3232 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 50% fib at 1.3235 and the asian high at 1.3250 in play
Failure to hold the 1.3214 session low extends the downtrend toward the 1.3200 round number
BoE Lombardelli at 14:00 UTC; a softer tone could extend losses, while hawkish lines have had limited traction
Fed's Paulson at 13:00 UTC and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD leg of the base
Lower highs since London high; price back below Asian low.
London open pushed above the Asian range to the 1.3256 london high, then the London drop broke the Asian low near 1.3223 and printed a session low at 1.3214 as USD extended its Fed-hike-driven rally. The 1.3232 lower high capped the rebound near the 38.2–50% retracement, and price is retesting the 1.3214–1.3216 lows with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.3214, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3223, 1.3232, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3223 asian low and the 1.3232 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3214 session low exposes the 1.3200 round number
Close above the 1.3256 london high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
US jobless claims (12:30 GMT) and Fed's Hammack/Paulson from 12:50 GMT, then BoE Lombardelli at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
12:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 38 · price 1.32201
London false break above Asian high, then broke below Asian low; lower highs capping.
London's poke above the Asian range to the 1.3256 london high failed. Price then broke the 1.3223 asian low and yesterday's post-PMI low, printing a 1.3214 session low as the USD yield bid persisted. Lower highs are stepping down beneath the 1.3232 swing high, RSI(14) is near 38 and ATR is about 7.6 pips, with US claims landing at the NY open.
Support: 1.32143, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3223, 1.32321, 1.32557
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 GMT, then Fed's Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read
Close back above the 1.3232 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3214 session low exposes the 1.3200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.3223 asian low turns it back into support
BoE's Lombardelli at 14:00 UTC is GBP-side risk into the London-NY transition
Asian range broken lower; lower-high/lower-low chain since London session high.
After rejection at the 1.3256 session high early in London, GBPUSD broke below the Asian range and the prior low near 1.3223. It printed a 1.3214 session low, and the rebound stalled at 1.3232 for a lower high under the descending line. Price is pinned just below the broken prior low into the NY open as the yields-led USD bid persists, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.32143, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32234, 1.32321, 1.32557
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, plus Fed's Hammack (12:50) and Paulson (13:00), could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.3223 prior low returns price inside the Asian range
M15 close above the 1.3232 lower high and the descending line breaks the lower-high chain
Break of the 1.3214 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3200 round number
BoE's Lombardelli at 14:00 UTC is a secondary GBP-side risk
12:01 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 41 · price 1.3225
London rejected above Asian range, broke Asian low, now basing 1.3221–1.3232.
London's early push above the Asian high to 1.3256 was rejected (false break), and the lower-high sequence ran through the Asian low to a session low at 1.3214. The rebound stalled at 1.3232, just past the 38.2% fib of the London drop, with the USD yields bid keeping supply capping each bounce. Late in the London session, going into NY data, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3214, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3232, 1.3245, 1.3256
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, plus Fed's Hammack and Paulson, could materially shift this read in the first hour of NY
A break below the 1.3214 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3200 round number
A close above the 1.3232 bounce high and the London trendline puts the 1.3245 Asian high and 1.3256 London high back in view
BoE's Lombardelli at 14:00 UTC is a second GBP-side risk during NY hours
London lower highs after a false break of the Asian high; sweep of the Asian low, now retracing.
London pushed above the 1.3250 Asian high to a 1.3256 London high but failed there. It then sold through the 1.3223 Asian low to a 1.3214 session low, extending the post-PMI USD bid. Price has bounced to the 38.2% retracement near 1.3230, still below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.3223, 1.32143
Resistance: 1.3235, 1.3250, 1.32557
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3223 Asian low reopens the 1.3214 session low
Reclaim of the 1.3235 fib 50% level puts the 1.3250 Asian high and 1.3256 London high back in view
US Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and Fed's Hammack/Paulson could materially shift this read; BoE Lombardelli speaks at 14:00 UTC
11:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 36 · price 1.32243
False break above Asian high, then break below Asian low; bounce capped at 38.2%.
London poked above the asian high to a 1.3256 london high, then sold off in a lower-high sequence through the asian low to a 1.3214 session low. The pullback stalled just under the 38.2% fib near 1.3230, and price is now back at the asian low around 1.3223. The move extends yesterday's slide after the US PMI beat pushed GBP to its lowest since early July.
Support: 1.32227, 1.32143, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3230, 1.32446, 1.32557
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 38.2% fib at 1.3230 weakens the lower-high sequence; a move above the asian high at 1.3245 negates it
Failure to hold the asian low at 1.3223 and a break of the 1.3214 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3200 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack/Paulson at 12:50/13:00 UTC could reset the NY-open range
BoE Lombardelli at 14:00 UTC is GBP-specific event risk for this structure
Lower highs from London high; brief break below Asian low reclaimed.
London pushed above the Asian range, was rejected at the 1.3256 london high, then slid through the 1.3223 asian low to a 1.3214 session low as USD held its PMI-driven bid. The break was reclaimed and price is bouncing into the 38.2% fib near 1.3230, still capped by the lower-high trendline and trading below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3214
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3223 asian low and then the 1.3214 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the lower-high trendline and the 1.3245 asian high negates the London downtrend read
A move toward the 1.3256 london high would retest the London rejection point
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Hammack (12:50) and Paulson (13:00), could materially shift this read
BoE's Lombardelli at 14:00 UTC is a second event risk for GBP
11:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 40 · price 1.32224
LH/LL chain from 1.3256 London high; sweep of Asian low, weak reclaim.
An early break of the Asian high at 1.3245 was rejected at the 1.3256 London high. The pair has since printed a descending chain of lower highs, sweeping the Asian low and yesterday's 1.3223 low to a 1.3214 session low before a shallow bounce capped at 1.3229. RSI(14) near 40 is not stretched, and the dollar bid from hot US PMIs and 5% yields keeps the pair pinned near its July lows.
Support: 1.32143, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3223, 1.32287, 1.32446
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3229 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Acceptance below the 1.3214 session low exposes the 1.3200 round number
Reclaim of the 1.3245 Asian high puts the 1.3256 London high back in play
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, Hammack/Paulson and Lombardelli at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs off the London high, Asian range broken to the downside.
London faded from the london high at 1.3256 in a clean lower-high chain. It broke the asian low at 1.3223, which also marks yesterday's post-PMI low, and printed a session low at 1.3214. RSI(14) sits near 31, heavy but not yet oversold, as the USD bid from Wednesday's hot US PMIs carries into mid-London.
Support: 1.32143, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32227, 1.32557
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3223 asian low would mark the range break as a false break
Descending trendline from the london high, now near 1.3224, caps the lower-high chain while it holds
Failure to hold the 1.3214 session low exposes the 1.3200 psych level
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack/Paulson ahead of the NY open could materially shift this read
London's early push above the Asian high at 1.3250 failed at the 1.3256 session high. That false break started a lower-high sequence, and the slide extended after the 09:30 GMT BoE Breeden/Dhingra remarks. Mid-London, price is now pressing the 1.3222 prior low (Wednesday's post-PMI and Asian low) with RSI(14) near 33, not yet oversold.
Support: 1.3222, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3230, 1.3250, 1.3256
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3222 prior low confirms a lower-low and puts the 1.3200 round number in view
Close back above the 1.3230 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the London lower-high sequence
Recovery through the 1.3250 Asian high would neutralise the false break read
US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC), followed by Hammack/Paulson and Lombardelli at 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London high, testing 1.3223–1.3225 floor.
The pre-London push through the asian high at 1.3250 met rejection at the london high of 1.3256. A chain of lower highs then carried price to a 1.3225 session low around the 09:30 GMT Breeden/Dhingra window, just above the 1.3223 asian low, as USD strength after Wednesday's PMI beats keeps GBP near early-July lows. RSI(14) sits near 38, off oversold, with price below both EMAs mid-London session.
Support: 1.32247, 1.32227, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32353, 1.32502, 1.32557
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3223 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3200 round number
M15 close above the 1.3235 lower high and the lower highs trendline breaks the London drop structure; 38.2% of the london drop sits at the same area
Recovery above the 1.3250 asian high and 1.3256 london high would negate the intraday downtrend
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack at 12:50 UTC, then BoE Lombardelli at 14:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 38 · price 1.32322
False break above Asian high, lower highs and lower lows toward the range floor.
The early London push through the Asian high at 1.3245 stalled at the london high of 1.3256 and fully reversed. A chain of lower highs, the latest at 1.3241, has taken price down to the 1.3228 session low, just above the 1.3223 asian low. That asian low matches the post-US PMI low from yesterday's NY session, and GBP stays heavy on the Fed–BoE growth divergence.
Support: 1.32283, 1.32227
Resistance: 1.32414, 1.32446, 1.32557
What it said to watch
BoE Breeden/Dhingra speaking now (09:30 GMT): pushback on priced hikes could take out the 1.3223 asian low
M15 close below the 1.3228 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.3241 lower high and the descending trendline neutralises the London selloff read
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack/Paulson could shift the read into NY open
09:31 UTC
Downtrend, London bounce rejected · RSI 42 · price 1.32306
False break above Asian high, lower highs back toward range floor.
GBP/USD is still heavy after yesterday's US PMI beat took it to 1.3223. Early London pushed through the Asian high at 1.3245 to a london high of 1.3256, then reversed on a series of lower highs. Price now sits at 1.3230, near the 78.6% retrace of the asian low to london high leg, with the asian low at 1.3223 the next floor.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3256
What it said to watch
BoE Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT: pushback on priced hikes could drive a break of the 1.3223 asian low
M15 close below 1.3223 confirms a lower-low and opens the 1.3200 psych level
Reclaim of the 1.3245 asian high breaks the lower highs line and neutralises the rejection
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the read during NY hours
09:01 UTC
Range after PMI breakdown, London push faded · RSI 44 · price 1.32341
1.3223–1.3256 range; London rejection at 1.3256, back inside Asian range.
London open lifted GBP to a 1.3256 London high on Lombardelli's hawkish comments. That is a second cap near 1.3255 after the post-US PMI bounce, and price has slid back through the Asian high to 1.3234. It now sits on the 61.8% fib of the 1.3223–1.3256 leg, just above the 1.3231 swing low, with RSI(14) near 44 and no stretch.
Support: 1.3231, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3256
What it said to watch
BoE Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT: a dovish tilt could push through the 1.3223 asian low, while hawkish lines may retest the 1.3245 asian high
M15 close below the 1.3231 swing low exposes the 1.3223 asian low, the 24h floor
M15 close above the 1.3256 london high breaks the range top
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
1.3223–1.3256 range, rising lows since Asia, London false break of Asian high.
Yesterday's US PMI beat drove the pair to 1.3223, the asian low, and it has since built a tight range with rising lows through Asia. Lombardelli's comments have helped hold the lows. London open broke above the asian high at 1.3250 to a london high of 1.3256, the 50% retrace of the PMI selloff, then was rejected back to the 1.3238 london low, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 1.3238, 1.3232, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3256, 1.3270
What it said to watch
M15 close below the london low at 1.3238 breaks the rising lows line and exposes the swing low at 1.3232, then the asian low at 1.3223
Acceptance back above the asian high at 1.3250 and the london high at 1.3256 (50% fib) reopens the 1.3270 july low
BoE Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT: dovish push-back could break the asian low; hawkish echoes could retest the range top
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Hammack/Paulson into the NY open could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Basing near lows, London push stalling · RSI 55 · price 1.32463
Asian range broken higher, higher lows off 1.3223, capped at 1.3256.
London extended the pre-open push through the Asian high at 1.3244 to a session high at 1.3256. Two wick rejections there have pulled price back to 1.3246, while dips held the London low at 1.3239, the 50% fib of the rally off the 1.3223 swing low. The pair is still pinned near the lows left by Wednesday's US PMI beat, with RSI(14) neutral at 55 and a rising trendline off the swing low underneath.
Support: 1.32445, 1.32391, 1.32227
Resistance: 1.32557, 1.32687, 1.32886
What it said to watch
M15 close below the London low at 1.3239 and the rising trendline reopens the 1.3223 swing low
M15 close above the 1.3256 session high opens the path to the prior high at 1.3269, then the pre-PMI high at 1.3289
BoE Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT carry dovish-repricing risk for GBP inside the next hour
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
Higher lows off 1.3223, early London testing Asian high.
After Wednesday's US PMI-driven slide, Asia held the 1.3223 swing low a second time, and early London is now pressing the 1.3250 Asian high. Higher lows at 1.3232 and the 1.3239 session low keep the rebound structure intact, with RSI(14) at 57 and ATR near 6 pips.
Support: 1.3239, 1.3232, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3254, 1.3269
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3254 ny high completes the double bottom and opens the 1.3269 prior pivot
Loss of the 1.3239 session low brings the 1.3232 higher low and rising trendline back into play
Break below the 1.3223 swing low resumes the downtrend
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and BoE's Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Basing after sell-off, higher lows since Asia · RSI 56 · price 1.32454
Double low at 1.3223; Asian range high broken pre-London, early London holding 1.3239–1.3250.
The slide driven by the hot US PMIs stalled at a 1.3223 double low, first in NY hours and again in the Asia session. Price then broke the Asian range high before London to tag the 1.3250 london high, and early London is holding the 1.3239 london low near the 38.2% of the asia-london fib, with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.3239, 1.3231, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3254, 1.3274
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3250 london high and the 1.3254 swing high confirms the double low and opens the 1.3274 july low
Break of the 1.3239 london low exposes the 1.3231 pullback low and the rising lows line
Loss of the 1.3223 double low resumes the downtrend toward fresh session lows
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and BoE Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT could materially shift this read; US claims follow at 12:30 UTC
07:31 UTC
Flat after post-PMI slide, basing near lows · RSI 52 · price 1.32391
Asian range 1.3223–1.3245, London open spike rejected back inside.
After yesterday's slide on the hot US services PMI, a double low at 1.3223 held through the Asia session. At the London open price spiked from the 1.3231 pre-open low through the Asian high at 1.3245 to 1.3250. That false break was rejected and price is back mid-range near the 38.2–50% fib of the Asian low to London high move, with EMAs flat overhead.
Support: 1.3231, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3250
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3250 london high turns the rejection into a range break
Loss of the 1.3231 pre-open low exposes the 1.3223 double low; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence
Williams at 08:10 UTC and BoE Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT could break the Asian high/low boundaries
Consolidation above 1.3223 double bottom, capped at 1.3250.
GBP/USD is consolidating above a 1.3223 double bottom after yesterday's US PMI beat drove a roughly 95-pip slide from 1.3316. Asia added higher lows at 1.3224 and 1.3231, and the pre-London push through the Asian high was rejected at the 1.3250 early high. Price sits at 1.3244 on the 1.3239 retest low as London opens, with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.3239, 1.3231, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3254, 1.3274
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3254 ny bounce high opens the path to the 38.2% level of the PMI drop near 1.3258, then 1.3274 july low
Loss of the 1.3231 higher low and the higher lows trendline puts the 1.3223 double bottom back in play
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and BoE's Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT could materially shift this read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the next USD-side catalyst for the range
GBPUSD is basing inside 1.3223–1.3254 after yesterday's slide on the US PMI beat and soft UK services print. The range low held twice through Asia, followed by a chain of rising lows. The pre-London push to a 1.3250 session high faded back inside the Asian range near the 38.2% of the PMI leg fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 1.3232, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3254, 1.3274
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3254 swing high clears the PMI leg fib 38.2% and puts the 1.3274 july low in view
Failure to hold the 1.3232 swing low breaks the rising lows line and reopens the 1.3223 range low
Rejection again at the 1.3250 session high keeps the range read intact
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and BoE's Breeden/Dhingra (09:30 GMT) could materially shift this read; US claims follow at 12:30 UTC
06:46 UTC
Basing after selloff, early upside break · RSI 56 · price 1.3246
Asian range break higher, capped below bounce high.
Ahead of London open, GBPUSD broke out of the 1.3223–1.3245 Asian range with a 19-pip bar at 06:00 UTC. It tagged 1.3250 and stalled just under yesterday's 1.3254 bounce high, the high of the rebound after the US PMI-driven selloff. The 1.3223 double low has held twice since that selloff, with Asian higher lows building beneath price.
Support: 1.3245, 1.3232, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3254, 1.3274
What it said to watch
Slip back below the 1.3245 asian high would turn the range break into a false break
M15 close above the 1.3254 bounce high opens the path to the 1.3274 july low
Loss of the 1.3232 higher low and the 1.3223 double low resumes the post-PMI lower-low sequence
Williams at 08:10 UTC and BoE Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Downtrend basing, early London bounce · RSI 56 · price 1.32461
Double bottom at 1.3223, Asian range broken higher at London open.
GBPUSD based at 1.3223 overnight after the PMI-driven USD surge, printing a double bottom with higher lows through Asia. The London open bar broke the 1.3223–1.3245 Asian range to 1.3250 and price is now retesting the Asian high. RSI(14) sits neutral at 56.
Support: 1.3245, 1.3231, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3254, 1.3261
What it said to watch
Hold of the asian high at 1.3245 keeps the range break intact; a slide back below the london low at 1.3231 turns it into a false break
A close above the london high at 1.3250 and prior swing at 1.3254 opens the 38.2% fib of the sell-off near 1.3261
A break of the higher lows trendline and the double btm at 1.3223 resumes the downtrend
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and BoE's Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT could materially shift this read
06:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 43 · price 1.32342
Post-PMI sell-off from 1.3322 to 1.3223, then a 1.3223–1.3245 Asian range.
Hot US PMIs extended the sell-off to 1.3223 during NY hours. Asia then held a tight 1.3223–1.3245 range, and the bounce stalled under the 23.6% of the sell-off fib and the 1.3254 NY high. Into London open, price sits mid-range below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 43 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3254, 1.3274
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3223 asian low (a double low with the NY low) resumes the downtrend and brings the 1.3200 round number into view
M15 close above the 1.3245 asian high and the 1.3254 ny high breaks the range to the upside, with the broken 1.3274 july low overhead
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and BoE's Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT could break the Asian range
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the next USD-side catalyst
06:01 UTC
Flat after PMI-driven selloff, basing at lows · RSI 56 · price 1.32389
Asian range 1.3223–1.3245 above equal lows.
The London and NY slide on the UK/US flash PMI gap bottomed at 1.3223 late NY. Asia retested that level and held, printing equal lows. Price is now mid Asian range at 1.3239, on the 50% fib of the 1.3254–1.3223 leg, with London open about an hour away and ATR compressed near 4 pips.
Support: 1.32227
Resistance: 1.32446, 1.32542, 1.3274
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.3245 asian high puts the 1.3254 bounce high in play; a close above it would confirm the double bottom, with the 1.3274 july low next
M15 close below the 1.3223 equal lows voids the double bottom and resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and BoE's Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT could break the Asian range early in London
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) could materially shift this read during NY hours
05:46 UTC
Downtrend stalled, basing in a range · RSI 60 · price 1.32412
Asian range 1.3223–1.3245, higher lows under a flat top.
GBP/USD slid about 100 pips from yesterday's 1.3322 high. The US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC accelerated the drop to 1.3223, where a twin low has since formed. Late in the Asia session price sits under the 1.3245 Asian high, which lines up with the 23.6% level of the slide fib, with an Asia higher low at 1.3233 and RSI(14) near 60 ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.32328, 1.32227
Resistance: 1.32446, 1.32542
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3245 Asian high (23.6% of the slide fib) breaks the range top; the 1.3254 NY rebound high is next
Loss of the 1.3233 higher low breaks the Asia higher lows line and puts the 1.3223 Asian low / twin-low base back in focus
BoE's Breeden and Dhingra at 09:30 GMT could materially shift this read; a dovish pushback on priced hikes weighs on GBP
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are further USD-side risk for the range
05:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asian range · RSI 56 · price 1.32395
Asian range 1.3223–1.3245, higher lows under a flat top.
GBP/USD shed about 100 pips from 1.3322 through London and NY as hot US PMIs lifted the dollar and the UK services PMI missed, then printed a weekly low at 1.3223 early in the Asia session. Since then the Asian range has held: the pullback to 1.3233 put in a higher low near the 50% retrace of the Asian bounce, while the Asian high at 1.3245 has capped twice. Price sits mid-range with London open about 90 minutes away.
Support: 1.32328, 1.32227
Resistance: 1.32446, 1.32542
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3245 Asian high opens the 1.3254 bounce high from late NY
Failure to hold the 1.3233 higher low and the rising lows line brings the 1.3223 weekly low back into play
BoE's Breeden and Dhingra at 09:30 GMT; pushback on priced hikes could shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) are the NY-session risk for the dollar leg
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late Asia · RSI 59 · price 1.32422
Asian range 1.3223–1.3245 with higher lows under a flat range top.
GBP/USD shed ~100 pips through London and NY after the UK services PMI miss and hot US PMIs. Asia briefly slipped under the day low at 1.3223 and closed back above it in a false break. Price has since built higher lows at 1.3224 and 1.3233 and now sits at the 61.8% retrace of the ny high fib, pressing the asian high at 1.3245.
Support: 1.32328, 1.32227
Resistance: 1.32446, 1.32542
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 1.3245 opens the ny high at 1.3254
Loss of the 1.3233 higher low breaks the asian hl trendline and puts the 1.3223 day low back in play
Close below the 1.3223 day low resumes the lower-low sequence
BoE's Breeden and Dhingra at 09:30 GMT, early in the London session, could reset this range
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are USD-side risk
05:01 UTC
Downtrend paused, basing in late Asia · RSI 60 · price 1.32423
Tight Asian range above a double bottom, higher low printed.
Yesterday's ~100-pip sell-off on the US PMI beat stalled at 1.3223, and Asia has held a 22-pip range with a higher low at 1.3233. Price sits just under the 1.3245 Asian high, which lines up with the 23.6% retrace of the sell-off. RSI(14) is near 60 and price is between ema20 and ema50, with ATR around 5 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.32328, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.32446, 1.32542, 1.3274
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3245 asian high exposes the 1.3254 bounce high; the 1.3274 july low sits above that
Failure to hold the 1.3233 higher low returns price to the 1.3223 double bottom; a break there resumes the sell-off
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and BoE's Breeden/Dhingra (09:30 GMT) during London hours could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled volatility point for the range
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, basing late Asia · RSI 54 · price 1.3239
Double bottom at 1.3223 with Asian higher lows.
GBP/USD sold off ~100 pips from the 1.3322 London high after the soft UK services PMI and the US PMI beat, then held twice at the 1.3223 double bottom (NY close and early Asia). Late Asia is building higher lows at 1.3224 and 1.3233 under the 1.3245 Asia high. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and price sits back above EMA20.
Support: 1.3233, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3254
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3245 Asia high brings the 1.3254 neckline into play; a break there completes the double bottom
Loss of the 1.3233 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low line and re-exposes the 1.3223 double bottom
BoE's Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT and Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC; dovish BoE pushback risks a break below 1.3223
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could reset the intraday range
Asian range 1.3223–1.3245 below a lower-highs line, swing low tested three times.
The US PMI beat drove the NY-session leg down from 1.3289, and the 1.3223 swing low has now held three tests since late NY. Price sits mid-Asian range at the 23.6% level of the PMI drop fib, with ATR compressed near 5.5 pips ahead of London open. The asian high at 1.3245 and the lower-highs line from the late ny high at 1.3254 cap rebounds.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3254
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3223 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3200 round number
Close above the 1.3245 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the late ny high at 1.3254 (38.2% of the PMI drop fib)
BoE's Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT and Williams at 08:10 UTC could break the Asian range; US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC follow
04:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asian range · RSI 52 · price 1.32344
Post-PMI lower low at 1.3223 swept in Asia, bounce capped at 1.3245.
The US PMI beat drove the NY selloff to 1.3223. Asia swept that low by a pip and bounced to the 1.3245 asian high, just above the 61.8% fib of the ny swing hi–asian low leg. Price is now fading mid-range at 1.3234, pinned to EMA20 with RSI near 52, and the 1.3243 higher low sits only marginally above the asian low. London open is roughly 3h away.
Support: 1.32243, 1.32227
Resistance: 1.32446, 1.32542, 1.3274
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3223 asian low confirms a fresh lower low and extends the downtrend
Close above the 1.3245 asian high and 61.8% fib opens the 1.3254 ny swing hi; above that, the 1.3274 july low
BoE's Breeden and Dhingra at 09:30 GMT: pushback on priced hikes could break the Asian range lower
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) and Hammack/Paulson Fedspeak could materially shift this read
04:01 UTC
Downtrend, basing in Asia · RSI 49 · price 1.32359
Lower highs from London; Asian range 1.3223–1.3245 after swing-low sweep.
GBP/USD bled lower through London and NY after the UK services PMI miss and the US PMI beat. It bottomed near 1.3223 late NY. Asia swept that swing low by a pip and bounced to an Asian high at 1.3245, still capped by the lower highs line off the 1.3254 NY bounce high; price is idling at 1.3236 on EMA20 in late Asia, with no break in play.
Support: 1.32227, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32446, 1.32542
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3245 Asian high breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 1.3254 NY bounce high
Clearing 1.3254 opens the 38.2% of the day drop fib near 1.3261
Failure at the 1.3223 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3200 round number
BoE Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are likely range-break catalysts
Asian range 1.3223–1.3245 after NY low retest; mid-range.
The strong US PMIs drove a 13:45 UTC sell-off that bottomed at 1.3223 in NY hours. The early Asia session swept that low by under a pip and reversed, lifting to the 1.3245 asia high. Price is now sitting mid-range near 1.3237, about a third of the way back down that bounce, with RSI(14) flat at 50.
Support: 1.3230, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3254
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3223 asia low confirms a lower-low and extends the post-PMI leg
Holding the 1.3230 asia pivot keeps the higher-low sequence and the fib bounce intact
Break above the 1.3245 asia high exposes the 1.3254 ny rebound high
London open plus BoE's Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT could materially shift this read; Williams speaks at 08:10 UTC
03:31 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound off the lows · RSI 55 · price 1.32412
Double bottom at 1.3223, neckline 1.3237 broken, capped at Asian high.
After yesterday's slide from 1.3322, driven by the soft UK services PMI and then the hot US PMIs at 13:45 UTC, the Asia session held 1.3223 twice, carving a double bottom at the 12-week low. Price has broken the 1.3237 neckline and the descending trendline and is stalling at the 61.8% fib near 1.3242, just under the 1.3245 Asian high. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR is about 6 pips.
Support: 1.32375, 1.32227
Resistance: 1.32446, 1.32542, 1.3274
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3245 asian high opens the 1.3254 ny high, then the 1.3274 july low
Slip back below the 1.3237 neckline voids the breakout and returns focus to the 1.3223 double btm
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and BoE's Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT during the London session could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound in progress · RSI 56 · price 1.32423
Asia double bottom at 1.3223 lows, price pressing prior range top.
The US PMI beat drove yesterday's NY slide to 1.3223. Asia has since printed a double low at 1.3223/1.3224, and a close through the 1.3238 neckline lifted price to the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the 1.3254 swing high. Mid-Asia, price is testing last evening's 1.3245 range top, where the EMA50 also sits, with RSI(14) at 56.
Support: 1.3238, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3254
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3245 range top clears the EMA50 and opens the 1.3254 swing high
A slip back below the 1.3238 neckline voids the double bottom read and puts the 1.3223 double low back in play
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and BoE's Breeden/Dhingra (09:30 GMT) around London open, then Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Double low at 1.3223-1.3224, bounce testing Asian high.
The London-to-NY slide, extended by the US PMI beat, bottomed at 1.3223, and Asia retested that session low twice without follow-through. Price is back at the 1.3241 Asian high, the 50% retrace of the drop from the 1.3254 NY high, sitting just above ema20 with EMA50 overhead near 1.3244.
Support: 1.3236, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3241, 1.3254, 1.3274
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3241 Asian high completes the double low and puts the 1.3254 NY high back in play
Loss of ema20 at 1.3236, then a close below the 1.3223 session low, resumes the lower-low sequence
Above 1.3254, the 1.3274 July low is the next reference
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and BoE's Breeden and Dhingra at 09:30 GMT could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at lows · RSI 42 · price 1.32322
Lower highs from 1.3254; Asian range 1.3223–1.3241 holding.
The London selloff and the hot US PMI beat in NY drove GBPUSD from 1.3327 to 1.3223. Asia swept that low by a pip and reclaimed it, and price has since chopped between 1.3223 and the 1.3238 swing high, capped by the lower highs line, with RSI(14) near 42 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.32227, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32375, 1.32542
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3223 asian low opens the 1.3200 round number
M15 close above the 1.3238 swing high and the lower highs line points to the 1.3254 bounce high
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and BoE's Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT could break the Asian range at London open
Lower-high/lower-low chain; Asian session retesting the prior NY low.
GBPUSD shed about 100 pips through London and NY after the US services PMI beat (58.7 vs 56) and the UK miss. It printed 1.3223, and Asia edged to a marginal new session low at 1.32227 before a shallow bounce stalled at 1.3237. Price is back retesting the session low under a lower-highs trendline from the 1.3254 NY bounce, with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR only ~5 pips in quiet Asian hours.
Support: 1.32227, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32375, 1.3244, 1.32542
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3223 session low extends the lower-low chain, with the 1.3200 round number the next reference
M15 close above the 1.3237 session high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 1.3244 asia top and 1.3254 ny bounce back in play
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and BoE's Breeden/Dhingra (09:30 GMT) around London open could materially shift this read; US jobless claims follow at 12:30 UTC
Lower highs under descending trendline; double low at 1.3223.
The US PMI beat drove GBPUSD through 1.3260 during NY hours and set a 1.3223 low. The rebound faded below the 1.3254 NY high. Early in the Asia session, price briefly swept that low to form a double low, but the snap-back stalled at the 1.3238 bounce high under the descending trendline and under the 1.3241 Asian high. RSI(14) is near 35 and ATR is around 4.5 pips.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3238, 1.3241, 1.3254
What it said to watch
Close below the 1.3223 double low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3200 round number
Close above the descending trendline and the 1.3241 asian high opens a retest of the 1.3254 ny high
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and BoE's Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT, into London open, could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 44 · price 1.32342
Lower highs from 1.3254; Asia retesting NY low.
GBPUSD shed over 100 pips from 1.3328 yesterday. The drop accelerated on the hot US PMI beat at 13:45 UTC after the UK services miss, and bottomed at 1.3223 late NY before an NY bounce to 1.3254 faded. Mid-Asia session, price dipped a pip under that low at 1.32227 and reclaimed it, forming a double low. It is now back at the bounce high of 1.3235, near the 38.2% fib and just under the lower-highs line from the 1.3245 area and the 1.3241 asian high.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3235, 1.3241, 1.3254
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3223 double low turns the sweep into a fresh lower low, with the 1.3200 round number next
Hold above 1.3235 bounce high and a break of the 1.3241 asian high would breach the lower-highs line
Reclaim of 1.3254 ny bounce (100% of the fib) would neutralise the NY lower-high sequence
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and BoE's Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT during London could materially shift this read
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 37 · price 1.32319
Lower highs from 1.3330; Asian range broken lower, marginal new low then shallow bounce.
The slide that followed the US PMI beat (services 58.7 vs 56) extended early in the Asia session. Price broke the 1.3234–1.3244 Asian range and briefly swept the NY low to a 1.3223 session low. The bounce stalled at 1.3236, where the asian low lines up with the 38.2% fib of the drop from the 1.3254 ny bounce, with price below both EMAs and ATR compressed in thin Asia trade.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3236, 1.3244, 1.3254
What it said to watch
Rebounds capped below the 1.3236 asian low keep the lower-high sequence intact; a reclaim of the 1.3244 asian high reopens the 1.3254 ny bounce
M15 close below the 1.3223 session low confirms a lower-low, with the 1.3200 round number next
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and BoE's Breeden/Dhingra (09:30 GMT) could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 45 · price 1.32349
Lower highs from 1.3254; Asia retesting NY low.
The NY-session selloff after the US PMI beat bottomed at the 1.3223 NY low, and a lower-highs sequence has held since the 1.3254 bounce high. Asia dipped less than a pip below the NY low before snapping back, and price now sits at the 38.2% fib of that leg, capped under the 1.3241 Asia high.
Support: 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3241, 1.3254
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3223 NY low turns the Asia false break into a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the 1.3241 Asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline; 1.3254 bounce high is next
Williams at 08:10 UTC and BoE's Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT could materially shift this read
01:16 UTC
Downtrend, pace slowing near lows · RSI 29 · price 1.32302
Lower highs from 1.3333; overnight range base broken early Asia.
The soft UK services PMI and the US PMI beat knocked Cable from 1.3333 to the 1.3223 NY low, and the 1.3237–1.3245 overnight range has now given way in early Asia session. The move tagged 1.3223 by a pip and closed back near 1.3229, with RSI(14) near 29 and ATR compressed to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.32234, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3237, 1.32453, 1.32542
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3223 ny low confirms a lower low and opens the 1.3200 round number
Recovery back above the 1.3237 range base, then the 1.3245 range top and lower highs trendline, would stall the downtrend read; the 1.3254 swing high caps the structure
Fed's Williams at 08:10 UTC and BoE's Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, drifting lower in early Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.32319
Lower highs; post-NY range floor slipped.
GBP/USD sold off through London and NY after the UK services PMI miss and US PMI beat. The US PMI leg bottomed at the 1.3223 NY low, then retraced roughly 47% to the 1.3254 bounce high. Early Asia has slipped below the 1.3234 range floor of the 1.3234–1.3245 post-NY consolidation, printing a 1.3230 asia low with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR under 4 pips.
Support: 1.32297, 1.32234
Resistance: 1.32336, 1.3245, 1.32542
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3234 range floor puts price back inside the range; the 1.3245 range top capped late NY
Break of the 1.3223 NY low extends the lower-low sequence; lower highs from 1.3289 stay intact below the 1.3254 bounce high
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and BoE's Breeden/Dhingra (09:30 GMT) are the next catalysts into London and could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into Asia · RSI 40 · price 1.32341
Lower highs off the 1.3254 bounce high, Asia drifting to range low.
Soft UK services PMI and the US PMI beat drove the slide to a 1.3223 swing low late in NY. The bounce stalled at 1.3254, and price has since carved lower highs under a lower-high trendline, capped by the 1.3245 NY range top. Early Asia session is sagging to 1.3234 on thin ranges, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) about 4 pips.
Support: 1.32234, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32453, 1.32542
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.3223 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence, with the 1.3200 round number next
M15 close above the 1.3245 ny range top breaks the lower-high trendline and exposes the 1.3254 bounce high
BoE's Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT and Lombardelli at 14:00 GMT could shift this read around London hours
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 201K) plus Fed speakers are USD-side risk into NY
Lower highs and lows through London/NY, now a tight post-NY range.
GBP/USD fell steadily through London, then extended the NY selloff on the US PMI beat to a 1.32234 NY low. The rebound stalled at the 1.32542 bounce high, just under the 38.2–50% retracement. Price has since compressed between the 1.32336 rollover low and the 1.32453 range top into early Asia, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and ATR(14) down to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.32336, 1.32234
Resistance: 1.32453, 1.32542, 1.32886
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.32336 rollover low reopens the 1.32234 ny low
Close above the 1.32453 range top brings the 1.32542 bounce high back into view, with the pre-pmi high at 1.32886 above that
BoE Breeden/Dhingra at 09:30 GMT could break the Asian compression
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London; 1.3237–1.3245 range after late-NY bounce.
The London-to-NY slide extended after the US services PMI beat, bottoming at the 1.3223 day low before a bounce stalled at the 1.3254 bounce high, just short of the 50% NY leg fib. Since then price has held a tight 1.3237–1.3245 range into the early Asia session and now sits on the range low, with ATR compressed near 4 pips.
Support: 1.3237, 1.3223
Resistance: 1.3245, 1.3254, 1.3269
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3237 range low exposes the 1.3223 day low
M15 close above the 1.3245 range top reopens the 1.3254 bounce high, with the ny swing hi at 1.3269 above that
Fed's Williams (08:10 UTC) and BoE Breeden/Dhingra (09:30 GMT) could break the Asian range and reset this read