21:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stretched · RSI 26 · price 1.32399
LH/LL since the late-Aug 1.3675 peak; july low broken.
Downtrend since the late-August peak at 1.3675, with lower highs at 1.3656 and 1.3568 defining a lower-high trendline. This week's four-day slide cut through the sep low at 1.3336 and the july low at 1.3273, printing a wed low at 1.3223 after the PMI gap, where a UK services miss met a 58.7 US services beat and lifted the USD. Price sits roughly 80 pips below the ema50 near 1.3426, which has rolled over with EMA20 slipping beneath it; the decline has carried past the 78.6% level of the Jun–Aug rally fib, and RSI near 26 is stretched toward the june low at 1.3140.
Support: 1.3223, 1.3140, 1.3000
Resistance: 1.3273, 1.3336, 1.3426
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the july low at 1.3273 would flag the breakdown as a false break
- Failure to hold the wed low at 1.3223 exposes the june low at 1.3140, then 1.3000 psych
- Reclaiming the sep low at 1.3336 and the ema50 near 1.3426 needed to challenge the lower-high trendline
- UK GDP Wed 30 Sep (f/c 0.4% QoQ) and Fri US durables / UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read