21:02 UTC
Downtrend since the late-August peak, oversold · RSI 27 · price 1.32443
Lower highs from 1.3675; July low broken, pressing the 1.3204 swing low.
The Jun–Aug advance topped at 1.3675 on 21 Aug. Since then the pair has printed lower highs, including the 1.3568 sept high, and the early-September 1.3464–1.3568 range gave way on 16 Sep as the Fed hiked and US 10y yields pushed above 5%. Last week's slide took out the sept shelf at 1.3335 and closed through the 1.3273 july low, the lowest since late June, with price now below both EMA(20) and EMA(50) and the 1.3204 swing low holding for two sessions. With RSI near 27, the daily is at genuinely oversold readings while Fed–BoE divergence keeps GBP heavy.
Support: 1.3204, 1.3140, 1.3000
Resistance: 1.3273, 1.3335, 1.3568
What it said to watch
- A daily close back above the 1.3273 july low would mark the break as a false break and put the 1.3335 sept shelf in focus
- Daily close below the 1.3204 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3140 june low, with the 1.3000 round number beyond
- UK Q2 GDP (Wed 30 Sep 06:00 UTC) and US ADP/PCE the same day could materially shift this read given deep GBP net shorts
- Only a recovery through the descending trendline and the 38.2% retrace near 1.3384 of the aug-sep decline would change the lower-high structure