21:02 UTC
Downtrend, Friday rebound stalling · RSI 60 · price 1.32443
Lower highs Tue–Thu, Friday reclaimed Thu high but capped.
Sterling printed a sequence of lower highs from Tuesday's 1.3387 top to a 1.3204 week low late in Thursday's NY session, with the heaviest selling in Wednesday's London and NY hours as rising US yields drove broad USD demand. Friday's rebound from the London open came as the USD rally paused. It cleared Thursday's 1.3256 high and the lower highs line and put price back above EMA(20) and EMA(50), but it met rejection twice at the 1.3263 fri high. The week closed near 1.3244, around the 23.6% retracement of the Tue–Thu decline, with the NY pullback low at 1.3229 holding and the rebound line intact.
Support: 1.3240, 1.3229, 1.3204
Resistance: 1.3263, 1.3296
What it said to watch
- Hourly close above the 1.3263 fri high opens the 38.2% Tue–Thu fib near 1.3274 and Wednesday's 1.3296 lower high
- Failure to hold the ema20 near 1.3240 and the 1.3229 ny pullback low breaks the rebound line and puts the 1.3204 week low back in view
- BoE Ramsden (Mon) and US JOLTS (Tue) are the first catalysts; UK Q2 GDP and US ADP/PCE on Wed 30 Sep could materially shift this read