Lower-high sequence broken Friday; higher low at 1.3229.
GBPUSD slid from Tuesday's 1.3387 high to a 1.3204 week low on Thursday. The heaviest selling came through Wednesday's London and NY sessions as Fed-BoE divergence and >5% US yields fed the USD bid. Friday's London open reversed that as the dollar paused on the oil drop, lifting price above ema20 and through Thursday's 1.3256 high to complete a double bottom off the week low; the NY session capped twice at the 1.3263 friday high, but the pullback held a higher low at 1.3229, with RSI(14) near 63 and price sitting at the 23.6% retracement of the week's drop.
Support: 1.3240, 1.3229, 1.3204
Resistance: 1.3263, 1.3296, 1.3349
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3263 friday high clears the 38.2% of the week's drop near 1.3274 and opens the 1.3296 wed high
Failure below the 1.3229 higher low and ema20 puts the 1.3204 week low back in focus and weakens the double bottom
Tue high at 1.3349 is the last lower high of the week's downtrend; it stays intact while price trades below it
BoE's Ramsden (Mon) and Taylor (Tue), then UK Q2 GDP plus US ADP/PCE on Wed, could materially shift this read
Lower highs Tue–Thu; Friday higher lows under 1.3263.
The week's dominant move was a ~180-pip slide from Tuesday's 1.3387 high to Thursday's late-NY week low at 1.3204. Wednesday's session did most of the damage as a hawkish Fed and rising US yields outweighed hawkish BoE talk. Friday's London session produced a relief bounce as the dollar paused, but the friday high at 1.3263 capped two attempts just below the 38.2% fib. The NY pullback held the 1.3229 ny low and a rising line of higher lows. Price sits above EMA(20) near 1.3237 but is pinned at EMA(50), with RSI(14) easing to ~54 from the mid-60s.
Support: 1.3237, 1.3229, 1.3204
Resistance: 1.3263, 1.3274, 1.3296
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3263 friday high opens the 38.2% fib at 1.3274 and the 1.3296 wed swing, which also marks the 50% retracement
Close below the 1.3229 ny low and the rising line exposes the 1.3204 week low; a break there resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC today could cut short the Friday USD pullback and shift this read
BoE Ramsden Monday 10:00 UTC is the first GBP catalyst after the weekend
17:02 UTC
Downtrend on the week, Friday rebound testing it · RSI 63 · price 1.32513
Lower-highs line broken Friday; first higher low at 1.3229 above the 1.3204 week low.
The week's slide from Tuesday's 1.3387 high was driven in the London sessions and extended into Thursday's NY session, reaching a 1.3204 week low as hawkish Fed talk, firm US claims and rising yields lifted USD. Friday's London-led rebound broke the lower-highs line, cleared Thursday's 1.3256 high and printed a 1.3263 friday high near the 23.6% fib of the weekly drop. The NY pullback to the 1.3229 pullback low found EMA(20) and recovered, and RSI(14) at 63 is the firmest reading of the week. Price is holding marginally above EMA(50).
Support: 1.3237, 1.3229, 1.3204
Resistance: 1.3263, 1.3300, 1.3321
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 1.3229 pullback low and EMA(20) would turn Friday's breakout into a false break
A close above the 1.3263 friday high opens the 38.2% fib near 1.3274, then the 1.3300 round number and the 1.3321 tuesday low
Loss of the 1.3204 week low resumes the downtrend toward the 1.3140 June low
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could shift this read into the weekly close; UK Q2 GDP and US ADP/GDP on Wed Sep 30 are the next major tests
Lower highs from 1.3387 week high; Friday broke the lower-high line, capped below fib 38.2.
GBPUSD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 1.3387 week high, with the heaviest selling in the London sessions on Fed-BoE divergence and firmer US yields, into a week low at 1.3204 late Thursday. Friday's London rally broke the lower-high line and cleared EMA(20), but it stalled at the 1.3263 friday high, short of the fib 38.2 retracement of the week decline at 1.3274, and faded into NY hours after firm US durables and sentiment data. Price now sits at the 23.6% level and just under EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 61 after a run out of oversold territory.
Support: 1.3235, 1.3204
Resistance: 1.3263, 1.3274, 1.3296
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the ema20 near 1.3235 returns focus to the 1.3204 week low
Close above 1.3274 fib 38.2 exposes the 1.3296 swing high; clearing it ends the lower-high sequence
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC today and BoE Ramsden Mon 10:00 UTC could shift this read ahead of UK Q2 GDP on Wed
Lower highs Tue–Thu, Friday higher lows off 1.3204.
GBPUSD turned lower from Tuesday's 1.3387 high during London hours. It printed a run of lower highs into Thursday's NY week low at 1.3204 as rising US yields and hawkish Fed talk drove the USD. Friday's bounce built higher lows from the Asia session through London and into the NY open as yields and oil paused. It cleared the lower-high trendline and EMA(20), but stalled at the 1.3263 day high just below the 38.2% fib of the week's drop at 1.3274, with RSI(14) near 61 after sub-40 readings on Thursday.
Support: 1.3232, 1.3204, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3263, 1.3274, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 1.3274 would open the 1.3300 round number and mark the first higher high since Tuesday
Failure to hold the ema20 near 1.3232 would put the week low at 1.3204 back in focus, with the june low at 1.3140 below
Rejection at the 1.3263 day high would leave Friday's move a corrective bounce inside the week's downtrend
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC today and BoE's Ramsden on Monday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Tuesday's 1.3387 into a 1.3204 week low; Friday higher lows now pressing Thursday's 1.3256 high.
The dominant move this week was the Tuesday-to-Thursday slide from 1.3387 to a 1.3204 week low. It started at Tuesday's London open and extended through NY hours as Fed-BoE divergence and firmer US yields weighed. A bullish RSI divergence into Thursday's low preceded Friday's London-session rebound, which lifted price back above ema20 and ema50 as the USD bid paused on US-Iran de-escalation talk and price now sits at Thursday's high just under the 1.3260 day high.
Support: 1.3246, 1.3233, 1.3204
Resistance: 1.3260, 1.3274, 1.3296
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3260 day high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 38.2% fib at 1.3274
50% fib at 1.3296 lines up with the level UOB flags; acceptance above it would erode the downtrend read
Return below ema50 near 1.3246 and ema20 near 1.3233 puts the week low at 1.3204 back in focus
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Tuesday's 1.3387; lower-high trendline broken Friday.
The London-session break from 1.3387 on Tuesday started a run of lower highs into the 1.3204 week low in Thursday's NY session. Hawkish Fed pricing and firm US PMIs and claims drove that leg. As oil and yields eased and USD paused, Friday's London session lifted price back above EMA(20) at 1.3229 and through the lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) near 70. Price stalled at a 1.3260 session high, close to the 23.6% retracement of the Tue–Thu drop, and the 38.2% fib at 1.3274 is the next level overhead.
Support: 1.3229, 1.3204, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3260, 1.3274, 1.3296
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 1.3274 opens the path to the 50% fib at 1.3296
Rejection at the 1.3260 session high and a slip back under ema20 at 1.3229 puts the rebound back inside the downtrend
Failure to hold the 1.3204 week low reopens the 1.3140 june low
UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows since Monday; Friday rebound testing Thursday's lower high.
GBPUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows from Monday's 1.3400 high. The heaviest legs came in Wednesday's London and NY sessions, as strong US PMIs and hawkish Fed commentary widened the policy gap with the BoE. Thursday's 1.3204 week low printed with RSI(14) holding above its Wednesday trough, and Friday's London session broke the trendline off Thursday's lower highs, lifting price back above EMA(20) at 1.3227 and into the 23.6% fib of the weekly decline at 1.3250. That fib sits just under Thursday's 1.3256 prior high, so the lower-high sequence is being tested but not yet broken.
Support: 1.3227, 1.3204
Resistance: 1.3250, 1.3256, 1.3296
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3256 prior high would end the lower-high sequence and put the 1.3296 lower high from Wednesday in view
Rejection at the 23.6% fib followed by a close back below the ema20 at 1.3227 returns focus to the 1.3204 week low
Loss of the 1.3204 week low and the 1.3200 handle extends the downtrend toward the June low near 1.3140
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC
Lower highs from Monday's 1.3400 top; 1.3204–1.3256 range since Thursday.
GBPUSD slid from Monday's 1.3400 high to a 1.3204 week low in Thursday's NY session. The heaviest legs came in Tuesday's London session and after Wednesday's split PMIs, as Fed-BoE divergence and multi-year-high US yields weighed on sterling. Friday's London session has lifted price back above the ema20 (~1.3222), through the lower-highs line from Tuesday and onto the EMA(50) near 1.3240, with RSI(14) near 65. The bounce still sits below Thursday's 1.3256 high (thu high) and short of the 38.2% fib of the week decline at 1.3279.
Support: 1.3222, 1.3204, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3256, 1.3279, 1.3300
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3256 (thu high) breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the fib 38.2 at 1.3279, then the 1.3300 round number
Slip back below the ema20 near 1.3222 returns focus to the 1.3204 week low and the 1.3200 psych level
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed's Hammack at 18:00 UTC is a late-session USD risk for this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Friday lifting from the Asian range.
GBP/USD has made lower highs and lower lows from Monday's 1.3400 peak. The heaviest leg followed Wednesday's PMI split (UK services miss, US beat), which took price through 1.3300 across London and NY hours, and hawkish Fed-speak drove Thursday's NY session to a week low of 1.3204. Friday's London session lifted price off the 1.3209 asian low and back above EMA(20) at 1.3222 as US yields eased, but the bounce is still capped by the fri high at 1.3241 and EMA(50) near 1.3244, below the thu high at 1.3256 and the 23.6% level (~1.3250) of the week's decline.
Support: 1.3222, 1.3209, 1.3204
Resistance: 1.3241, 1.3256, 1.3279
What it said to watch
H1 close above the thu high at 1.3256 breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the fib 38.2 at 1.3279
Rejection at the fri high at 1.3241 and a slip back under ema20 at 1.3222 returns price to the asian low at 1.3209 and the week low at 1.3204
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and the UoM sentiment/inflation expectations revision (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
BoE's Ramsden on Monday 10:00 UTC is the next GBP-specific risk
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; 1.3204–1.3240 consolidation since Thursday NY.
GBP/USD has printed lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.3400 high. The largest leg came Wednesday, when the PMI gap (US services 58.7 vs UK 51.7) carried price through London and NY hours toward Thursday's 1.3204 week low. Since then it has compressed in a 1.3204–1.3240 band, and today's London open lifted it above EMA(20) and through the lower-highs line off Thursday's highs, with RSI(14) back near 57. The ema50 zone around 1.3240, which also holds Thursday's spike high, sits just overhead; the bounce is still only ~15% of the week's decline on the fib.
Support: 1.3222, 1.3204
Resistance: 1.3240, 1.3256, 1.3279
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.3204 week low resumes the lower-low sequence
Loss of ema20 near 1.3222 returns price to the consolidation floor
Rejection at the ema50 zone around 1.3240 keeps the lower-highs structure intact
Close above the 1.3256 lower high breaks the week's descending structure, with the 38.2% fib at 1.3279 next
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could shift this read during NY hours
Lower highs each session since Monday, flat base 1.3204–1.3229.
Cable has printed lower highs every session since Monday's 1.3400 top. The largest leg came through Wednesday's London and NY hours after US services PMI beat (58.7) while UK services missed, and hawkish Fedspeak plus higher yields extended the slide to a week low of 1.3204 in Thursday's NY session. Friday's Asian range held between the 1.3209 asian low and the 1.3229 session high, carrying price back above EMA(20) and the lower-highs trendline with RSI(14) near 54, though it still sits below EMA(50).
Support: 1.3209, 1.3204, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3229, 1.3240, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3204 week low, and the 1.3200 round number beneath it, extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 1.3229 session high and the 1.3240 lower high would break this week's lower-high sequence and put the 1.3256 thu high, near the 23.6% retrace of the weekly decline, in view
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC, US durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Holding above EMA(20) while the lower-highs trendline is overhead suggests the decline is losing momentum rather than reversing
Lower highs from Monday's 1.3400 peak; Asia base above week low.
The week drop runs from Monday's 1.3400 high to Thursday's 1.3204 week low during NY hours. The heaviest legs came in Tuesday's London session and Wednesday's NY session, after US PMIs outpaced UK data and US yields kept climbing. Rallies to the Thursday London thu high at 1.3256 and the 1.3240 lower high failed, and Friday's Asia session has compressed in a 1.3209–1.3224 band just under EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 43 and no longer stretched.
Support: 1.3204, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3224, 1.3240, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3224 asian high breaks the short lower-highs line; 1.3240 lower high and 1.3256 thu high sit above
Failure to hold the 1.3204 week low and the 1.3200 round number extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3140 area cited in the digest
US durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields; Williams speaks 09:15 UTC
A retrace into the 23.6% of the week drop near 1.3250 would test the Thursday rejection zone
Lower highs each session since Monday; compressing above week low.
GBPUSD has printed lower highs every session from Monday's 1.3400 peak. The heaviest leg came in Wednesday's London and NY sessions, after the UK services PMI miss and the US services beat, and Thursday NY extended to a 1.3204 week low. Rebounds have stalled at shallow levels, with the thu high at 1.3256 barely reaching the 23.6% retracement of the week's slide and the lower-highs line capping Thursday's NY high at 1.3240. Price is now compressing in a tight Asia session range just under EMA20 (1.3217), with RSI(14) near 40, above Wednesday's trough, even as price made a lower low.
Support: 1.3204, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3217, 1.3240, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs line and 1.3240 thu ny high would break this week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3204 week low and 1.3200 round number would extend the four-day slide
Recovery through 1.3256 thu high, near the 23.6% fib, is needed to challenge the downtrend read
Williams 09:15 UTC, US Durables 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read in NY hours
GBPUSD has slid from Monday's 1.3400 high, with the heaviest leg running from London into NY on Wednesday after the UK services PMI miss and the US services beat. Since Thursday's high at 1.3256, successive lower highs at 1.3240 and the 1.3224 Asian high have squeezed price into a narrow band just above the 1.3204 week low. EMA(20) is flattening overhead and RSI(14) sits near 41, off oversold, as the four-day selling slows.
Support: 1.32041, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.32237, 1.32557, 1.3302
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3204 week low and 1.3200 psych extends the four-day lower-low sequence
H1 close above the lower-highs line and the 1.3224 Asian high breaks the compression; the thu high at 1.3256 is the next cap
Recovery beyond the thu high brings the 50% fib of the week's drop at 1.3302 into view
Fed's Williams (09:15 UTC), US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday, basing at week low above 1.3200.
The week slide from Monday's 1.3400 peak has printed lower highs throughout. Wednesday's London-morning UK services PMI miss and the NY-session US PMI beat drove the main leg below 1.3300. Thursday's London bounce stalled at the thu high of 1.3256, and the NY session then set a fresh week low at 1.3204 on strong US claims. RSI(14) near 41 is holding above Wednesday's trough, a bullish divergence, while price compresses below EMA(20) at 1.3219 in a tight Asian range above the asia low at 1.3209.
Support: 1.32089, 1.32041, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3219, 1.32399, 1.32557
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 1.3200 psych level, after losing the week low at 1.3204, extends the lower-low sequence and voids the divergence
A close above the lower highs line and the thu ny high at 1.3240 breaks Thursday's lower-high sequence
A recovery through the thu high at 1.3256 puts the 38.2% retracement of the week slide near 1.3274 in view
Reclaiming ema20 at 1.3219 on a closing basis is the first sign the Asia-session base is holding
US durables at 12:30 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC, plus Williams at 09:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Cable has built lower highs since Monday's London high at 1.3400. The dominant leg came in Wednesday's London and NY sessions after US flash PMIs beat and UK services missed, and Thursday's NY session then set the week low at 1.3204. Price is pinned just below EMA(20) near 1.3220 and the lower-highs trendline, while RSI(14) sits near 44 at the new low against sub-30 readings on Wednesday, a bullish divergence. Thursday's NY bounce high at 1.3240 and the Thursday high at 1.3256 cap the base above the 1.3200 psych level.
Support: 1.32041, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3220, 1.32399, 1.32557
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 / lower-highs trendline near 1.3220 would break the week's lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3204 week low and the 1.3200 psych level extends the downtrend to fresh lows since late June
A move through the ny bounce high at 1.3240 and the thu high at 1.3256 opens the 23.6–38.2% fib of the week's decline (1.3250–1.3279)
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read, with Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; tight base above 1.3200.
GBPUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows every session since Monday's 1.3400 peak. The dominant leg came in Wednesday's NY session, when the US services PMI beat drove price through 1.3250. Thursday's London open stalled at the 1.3256 Thursday high, just above the 23.6% fib of the week's drop, and NY hours then set a fresh week low at 1.3204. Price is holding under EMA(20) near 1.3224 with RSI(14) around 36, soft but not oversold, as it compresses just above the 1.3200 psych level.
Support: 1.3204, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3224, 1.3240, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3240 lower high and the lower-highs trendline would break this week's sequence
Clearance of EMA(20) at 1.3224 is the first sign the rotation lower is stalling; the Thursday high at 1.3256 sits above
Failure to hold the 1.3204 week low and 1.3200 psych extends the lower-low sequence
US Durables (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) in Friday's NY session could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC during London hours adds event risk to the week-low test
00:01 UTC
Downtrend, pace slowing near lows · RSI 41 · price 1.32159
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 1.3400 peak.
GBPUSD has made lower highs every day since the week opened near 1.3389. The main legs came in Tuesday's London session and through Wednesday, when strong US PMIs widened the growth gap, and the pair stayed below EMA(20) throughout. Thursday's London bounce stalled at 1.3256 (thu high) and the NY session pushed to a 1.3204 week low. The latest bounce toward the lower-high trendline near 1.3240 met rejection, and the old wed low at 1.3223 now caps price just above EMA(20).
Support: 1.3204, 1.3200
Resistance: 1.3223, 1.3240, 1.3256
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3240 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the daily sequence of lower highs, with 1.3256 thu high next
Failure to hold the 1.3204 week low and the 1.3200 round number extends the lower-low sequence
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) Friday could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams at 09:15 UTC adds USD event risk during the London session
Reclaiming 1.3223 wed low and EMA(20) would signal the pace of the slide is fading