21:02 UTC
Downtrend since late-August high, RSI oversold · RSI 26 · price 1.32275
Lower highs and lower lows from 1.3675; July low at 1.3273 broken.
The June–August advance topped at 1.3675 on 21 Aug, and five weeks of lower highs and lower lows followed. Last week's slide through the july low at 1.3273 marked the break of that uptrend, with the drop to the sep low at 1.3204 driven by an oil-led USD bid, the Fed's 16 Sep hike against the BoE's 18 Sep hold, and 10y yields at 2007 highs. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA50 rolling over near 1.345, and RSI in the mid-20s is at its most stretched of the window, while the sep trendline caps each bounce.
Support: 1.3204, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3273, 1.3384, 1.3568
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the july low at 1.3273 and the sep trendline would stall the lower-low sequence
- Failure to hold the sep low at 1.3204 exposes the june low at 1.3140
- Recovery through the 38.2% fib at 1.3384 would mark the first meaningful retracement of the August–September decline
- The lower-high chain stays intact while price holds below the sep high at 1.3568
- UK GDP Wed 30 Sep 06:00 UTC (f/c 0.4% QoQ) could shift the read, with crowded GBP shorts adding squeeze risk
- US ADP Wed and NFP Fri test USD strength. A soft print could extend the oversold bounce