Lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 high; July swing low broken.
The June–August uptrend, from the 1.3140 june low to the 1.3675 Aug 21 high, has rolled into five weeks of lower highs and lower lows. The mid-September loss of the 1.3475 early-September low, followed by the break of the 1.3273 july low, turned the daily structure lower, and ema20 has crossed below a flattening-to-falling ema50. The slide tracks the yield-driven USD bid as US 10y yields hit 2004-era highs. Price has stalled for four sessions just above the 1.3204 sept low, with RSI oversold near 27.
Support: 1.3204, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3273, 1.3380, 1.3425
What it said to watch
Daily close back above the 1.3273 july low would undermine the breakdown and bring ema20 near 1.3380, the 38.2% retrace of the aug-sep fib, into view
Close below the 1.3204 sept low and the 1.3200 area extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3140 june low
Price holding below the ema50 near 1.3425 and the lower highs trendline keeps the swing-trend filter pointed down
UK Q2 GDP final and US Core PCE on Wed Sep 30 could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 peak; July low broken.
GBPUSD has printed a lower-high, lower-low sequence since the Aug 21 peak at 1.3675, with four of the last five weeks closing lower. The mid-September drop out of the 1.3475–1.3570 range, capped by the sept high at 1.3568, extended last week through the july low at 1.3273 to a sept low at 1.3204. The USD bid on hawkish Fed repricing and US 10y yields above 5% has driven the move. Daily RSI is sitting near 30 as price stalls just above 1.3200, with the lower high at 1.3406 and the 38.2% retracement of the Aug–Sep decline clustered overhead.
Support: 1.3204, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3273, 1.3406, 1.3568
What it said to watch
Daily close below the 1.3204 sept low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3140 june low
Recovery back above the 1.3273 july low would turn that broken level from resistance back into support
Daily close above the 1.3406 lower high and 38.2% fib breaks the lower-high sequence
Price back above the 1.3568 sept high and the downtrend line from Aug 21 would negate the downtrend read
US core PCE and ADP on Wed Sep 30 could materially shift this read; crowded GBP shorts add squeeze risk if yields ease
16:27 UTC
Downtrend since the Aug 21 high, stretched to oversold · RSI 25 · price 1.32516
Lower-high/lower-low chain; July low broken, shallow bounce stalling beneath it.
Five-week downtrend from the Aug 21 high at 1.3675. The Sep 9 lower high at 1.3568 set the lower-high line, and two weekly legs then broke the July low (1.3273–1.3280) and printed the Sept low at 1.3204 on Sep 24, with price now under both EMAs and the D1 EMA(50) near 1.3415 rolling over. The driver is yield-led USD strength, with US 10y above 5% and DXY at two-month highs, outweighing hawkish BoE talk. The last three sessions have been a tight bounce capped just under the old July low, with RSI near 25 in genuinely oversold territory and the 38.2% retracement of the Aug–Sep leg fib at 1.3384.
Support: 1.3204, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3415, 1.3568
What it said to watch
Daily close below the 1.3204 sept low (1.3200 psych) extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3140 june low
Reclaim of the 1.3280 july low turns the break into a false break; a close above the ema50 near 1.3415 would neutralise the downtrend read
Close above the 1.3568 lower high breaks the lower-high line and invalidates the Aug–Sep downtrend structure
UK Q2 GDP final (Wed 06:00 GMT) plus US ADP, GDP and PCE (Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read, with NFP later in the week
Oversold RSI with crowded GBP shorts leaves room for a sharp retracement if US yields ease