Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.3470 range floor broke; first higher low at 1.3221.
After the mid-month break of the 1.3470 range floor, GBPUSD printed a clean sequence of lower highs and lower lows into the 1.3204 window low. Sterling has since bounced on hawkish BoE rhetoric and short-covering, putting in a higher low at 1.3221. The rally stalled at the 1.3280 fib 38.2 of the 1.3400 swing high to 1.3204 leg, which sits just under EMA(50) with the EMA(20) now below price. ATR(14) has eased to about 27 pips, down from the breakdown expansion.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3204
Resistance: 1.3280, 1.3335, 1.3400
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3280 fib 38.2 and 1.3295 opens the 1.3335 prior low, which is broken support
Failure of the 1.3221 higher low exposes the 1.3204 window low and restores the lower-low sequence
Rejection at the lower highs trendline keeps the downtrend read intact
UK GDP Wed 06:00 UTC (f/c 0.4% QoQ) and US ADP Wed 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Recovering the 1.3400 swing high would negate the multi-week downtrend structure
Lower highs from 1.3568; higher low at 1.3221 under twin highs at 1.3275.
The lower-high sequence from the 1.3568 early-window top remains intact. The mid-month breakdown extended to a 1.3204 swing low as the oil-driven USD rally and doubts over BoE repricing weighed. Since then price has built a higher low at 1.3221 and twin highs near 1.3275, stalling just under the 38.2% fib at 1.3281 on BoE hike talk. It holds above EMA20 but below EMA50 and the descending trendline near 1.3300, with ATR(14) compressed to ~27 pips from 40+ during the selloff.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3204
Resistance: 1.3275, 1.3300, 1.3387
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3275 twin highs opens the path to the 1.3300 trendline and the 50% fib at 1.3305
Failure to hold the 1.3221 higher low exposes the 1.3204 swing low and the digest's 1.3140 June low
Only a recovery through the 1.3387 breakdown hi would break the lower-high structure
UK GDP Wed 06:00 UTC and BoE Taylor/Mann remarks could materially shift this read
US JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak Tue, then PCE and Friday NFP, are the USD-side risk
13:01 UTC
Downtrend, early stabilisation off lows · RSI 55 · price 1.32616
Lower highs from 1.3400 broken; first higher low at 1.3221.
GBPUSD broke down from the 1.3470-1.3570 range mid-month and printed lower highs and lower lows to a 1.3204 swing low, as the post-Fed USD rally and UK fiscal worries weighed. The pair has since built a higher low at 1.3221 and pushed above the falling trendline, but it remains below EMA50 and is testing the week high at 1.3275, just under the 38.2% retracement of the 1.3400-1.3204 leg. ATR(14) near 25 pips has compressed from the breakdown phase, consistent with a basing range rather than an extending trend.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3204, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3275, 1.3302, 1.3325
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3275 week high opens the fib 50% at 1.3302, then the fib 61.8 at 1.3325 where mid-month lows cluster
Loss of the 1.3221 higher low, then the 1.3204 swing low, resumes the lower-low sequence toward the june low at 1.3140
Rejection back below the falling trendline would mark the break as a false break
US JOLTS Tuesday and PCE/NFP later this week could materially shift the USD leg of this read
UK final GDP Wed 30 Sep 06:00 GMT and BoE Taylor/Mann remarks are GBP-side risk
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 46 · price 1.32661
Lower highs/lows since 1.3568; higher low at 1.3221.
Lower highs and lower lows have run since the 1.3568 early-month top, with the slide extending to the 1.3204 swing low, a three-month low, as hawkish Fed repricing and multi-year-high US yields pressured Cable. A shallow base has since formed, with a higher low at 1.3221 and the latest bar pressing the 1.3267 swing high and the lower-high line. Price is back above EMA20 near 1.3259, but EMA50 around 1.3305 still sits overhead in a bearish stack, and ATR(14) near 26 pips has eased from the mid-month expansion.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3204, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3267, 1.3305, 1.3321
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the 1.3267 swing high clears the lower-high line and brings the 1.3305 ema50 and the 50% fib retrace into view.
Acceptance above the ema50 exposes the 1.3321 prior low, which sits near the 61.8% retrace of the 1.3400-1.3204 leg.
A move back below the 1.3221 higher low puts the 1.3204 swing low and the 1.3140 june low back in play.
UK Q2 GDP on Wed at 06:00 UTC and US NFP on Fri could materially shift this read, with BoE Ramsden at 10:00 UTC today adding near-term risk.
Lower highs / lower lows since mid-month range break; tight base above swing low.
The early-month 1.347-1.357 range broke lower mid-month, and a sequence of lower highs has followed. USD strength from Fed hike pricing and 10y yields above 5% drove a four-session slide to the 1.3204 swing low. Price has since carried a shallow bounce high at 1.3263 and is basing on the 1.3221 shelf. It sits below a flattening EMA20 near 1.3257, and ATR(14) has compressed to ~24 pips from 40+ on the leg lower, so the range is tightening beneath the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 1.3221, 1.3204, 1.3140
Resistance: 1.3263, 1.3279, 1.3335
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3263 bounce high and the fib 38.2 at 1.3279, which also clears the lower-highs trendline, would break the lower-high sequence; the prior lows at 1.3335 are the next overhead zone
Failure to hold the 1.3221 shelf and 1.3204 swing low extends the lower-low structure toward the June low at 1.3140
UK Q2 GDP Wed 30 Sep 06:00 UTC (f/c 0.4% QoQ) could materially shift this read given crowded GBP shorts
US ADP and PCE on Wed 12:15-12:30 UTC are the main USD-side risk to the compression
BoE Ramsden (Mon) and Taylor (Tue) remarks feed BoE hike pricing