21:03 UTC
Downtrend from August high, corrective rebound stalling · RSI 61 · price 1.33697
LH/LL from 1.3675 to 1.3137, reclaimed base, rebound capped at 50% fib.
GBPUSD has traded in a downtrend since the Aug 21 aug high at 1.3675. A lower-high, lower-low chain ran into the Oct 14 oct low at 1.3137, a false break below the late-September base that was reclaimed the next session. The rebound then cleared the 1.3310 range top and, after the UK core CPI beat cemented a November BoE hike, reached the 1.3419 monthly high, near the 50% fib of the Aug-Oct decline. Price has stalled there for three sessions as USD demand into the FOMC caps gains. Price now holds above a flattening ema50 near 1.3350 for the first time since mid-September, with RSI(14) around 61 and well short of overbought.
Support: 1.3350, 1.3310, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3419, 1.3470, 1.3675
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 1.3419 monthly high would extend the rebound toward the 61.8% fib at 1.3470
- Daily close back below the ema50 and the 1.3310 range top would reframe the October rally as a lower high within the downtrend
- Break of the 1.3137 oct low resumes the lower-low sequence from the 1.3675 aug high
- UK Autumn Forecast Statement and the Fed decision, both Oct 28, could materially shift this read; the BoE decision on Nov 5 follows