18:10 UTC
Two-month downtrend challenged, rebound testing resistance · RSI 62 · price 1.33961
Base at 1.3137–1.3181, lower-high chain broken above 1.3311.
The decline from the 21 Aug high at 1.3675 printed a chain of lower highs, including the 1.3568 sept high, into a 1.3180–1.3310 range through early October. The 14 Oct false break to the 1.3137 swing low reversed sharply, and price has since cleared the 1.3311 prior high and the downtrend line. Hawkish BoE repricing after the hot CPI and firm pay data, set against Fed-pause bets, carried cable to 1.3409, where it is stalling at the 50% fib of the Aug–Oct decline; price is back above EMA(50), though the average has not yet turned higher.
Support: 1.3311, 1.3181, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3409, 1.3470, 1.3568
What it said to watch
- A daily close above 1.3409 and the 50% fib (no close above 1.3400 since 15 Sep) opens the 61.8% fib near 1.3470, with the 1.3568 sept high beyond
- Rejection at 1.3409 followed by a close back below the 1.3311 prior high would restore the lower-high sequence
- Failure to hold the 1.3181 range low and the 1.3137 swing low would confirm a lower low and resumption of the downtrend
- UK retail sales and flash PMIs plus US flash PMIs on Fri, then the UK Budget on 28 Oct and the Fed decision next week, could materially shift this read