Higher lows from Monday's 1.3296 low; 1.3355–1.3419 range under the 1.3400 round number.
Cable has rallied about 120 pips from Monday's 1.3296 low. Tuesday's UK labour data and NY-session USD softness drove the breakout, and Wednesday's across-the-board CPI beat lifted the pair to the 1.3400 round number. Since then price has repeatedly failed to hold above that level: London tagged the 1.3419 week high on Thursday before a NY-session USD bid on firm claims and Iran headlines knocked it to the Thu low at 1.3355, near the 50% retracement of the week's rally and on the rising trendline from Monday's low. Demand stepped in there, and price has recovered above EMA(20) with RSI(14) back to a neutral ~53.
Support: 1.3393, 1.33766, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.34188
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3419 week high breaks the range top after repeated rejection around the 1.3400 round number
Holding the ema20 near 1.3393 keeps pullbacks shallow; a slip back under the Wed low at 1.3377 reopens the range floor
Break below the Thu low at 1.3355 and the rising trendline from Monday's low would undercut the week's rally structure
UK Retail Sales (Fri 06:00 UTC) and flash PMIs (08:30 UTC) land into London open, with US PMIs at 13:45 UTC; together they could decide whether 1.3400 gives way
Higher lows since Monday; 1.3355–1.3419 range since Tuesday NY.
Cable has built higher lows since Monday's 1.3296 week low. The Tuesday NY rally and Wednesday's hot UK CPI lifted it into a 1.3355–1.3419 range. Thursday's London push to the 1.3419 week high met rejection as Middle East tensions and firm US claims lifted the USD, but the NY dip held at the thu low of 1.3355, near the 50% retracement of the week's move, and price has reclaimed the ema20 to sit just under the 1.3400 round number.
Support: 1.3393, 1.3355, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3419 week high breaks the range top and extends the higher-low sequence
Repeated failure at the 1.3400 round number keeps the range read intact
Loss of the 1.3355 thu low and the 50% retracement exposes the higher-low trendline and the 1.3296 week low
UK Retail Sales (06:00 UTC) and flash PMIs (08:30 UTC) Friday, then US PMIs at 13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
Range 1.3355–1.3419 since Tuesday NY, higher low vs Monday.
The week opened at 1.3306. The dominant leg came Tuesday after the UK jobs data, extending into the NY session and lifting cable from Monday's 1.3296 week low to the 1.3409 Tuesday high. Hot UK CPI on Wednesday added little, and price has since ranged between Wednesday's 1.3377 low and the 1.3400 round number, with each push above it failing. Thursday's London-session spike to the 1.3419 week high reversed to the 1.3355 Thursday low as Middle East tension and solid US claims lifted the dollar; that dip held near the 50% fib of the week's rally and the rising support from Monday, and NY hours reclaimed EMA(20), leaving RSI(14) flat near 50 at 1.3400.
Support: 1.3393, 1.3377, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3409, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3419 week high breaks the range top that has capped every attempt since Tuesday
Another rejection at the 1.3409 Tuesday high keeps the 1.3355–1.3419 range intact
A close back below EMA(20) at 1.3393 and the 1.3377 Wednesday low shifts focus to a retest of the range floor
Loss of the 1.3355 Thursday low breaks the 50% fib and the rising support from Monday
Fri 06:00 UTC UK Retail Sales, 08:30 UTC UK flash PMIs and 13:45 UTC US flash PMIs could materially shift this read
20:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 1.3400 · RSI 49 · price 1.33989
Higher lows from Monday, 1.3355–1.3419 range since Wednesday.
GBP/USD has climbed since Monday's NY low at 1.3296, with Tuesday's UK jobs data and Wednesday's hot CPI lifting it into a 1.3355–1.3419 band. Thursday's week high at 1.3419 printed in London before an Iran-driven USD bid pushed price through the wed low to the thu low at 1.3355, near the 50% level of the Mon-Thu rally fib. NY hours reversed the drop within three bars, reclaiming the ema20 near 1.3391, and price is back at the 1.3400 psych level with RSI(14) mid-range near 49 and the week's higher lows trendline intact.
Support: 1.3391, 1.33766, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.34188
What it said to watch
Sustained H1 trade above the 1.3400 psych level and the 1.3419 week high would extend the uptrend; 1.3400 has repeatedly failed to hold this week
A move back below the ema20 and the wed low at 1.3377 reopens the thu low at 1.3355; losing that and the higher lows trendline breaks the week's structure
UK Retail Sales (Fri 06:00 UTC) and flash PMIs (08:30 UTC), then US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
19:01 UTC
Uptrend from Monday low, stalling at 1.3400–1.3420 · RSI 54 · price 1.34016
Rally then 1.3355–1.3419 range since Tuesday NY, Thursday false break reclaimed.
Cable climbed from Monday's 1.3296 week low on Tuesday's UK pay data and the US housing miss. Wednesday's CPI beat added a push to 1.3403. Price has since ranged under the 1.3400 round number, and Thursday's London spike to the 1.3419 week high reversed on a Middle East-driven dollar bid. That sell-off briefly broke below the Tuesday and Wednesday lows to 1.3355, near the 50% retracement of the Mon–Thu rally, before NY hours reclaimed the EMA(20) and returned price to 1.3400.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3390, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.34188
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3419 week high breaks the range top and extends the Mon–Thu rally
Failure to hold the EMA(20) near 1.3390 returns price to the middle of the range
Break below Thursday's low at 1.3355 undoes the false break and the rising support
UK Retail Sales (Fri 06:00 UTC) and flash PMIs (08:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and Middle East headlines remain the USD-side risk
18:01 UTC
Uptrend on the week, ranging below 1.3420 since Tuesday · RSI 56 · price 1.34044
Higher lows from Monday's 1.3296 base; 1.3355–1.3419 range since Tuesday NY.
The week opened near 1.3306 and ran from Monday's 1.3296 low into the Tuesday high at 1.3409. The Tuesday leg came off the UK jobs data and extended in NY. Wednesday's CPI beat retested the psych 1.3400 level without holding it, then London on Thursday printed a week high at 1.3419 before a claims beat and Middle East-driven dollar demand dragged price to the Thursday low at 1.3355. That low sat near the 50% retrace and just above rising support, and the NY session recovered back through ema20 to retest 1.3400–1.3409.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3393, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.3409, 1.34188
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3419 week high breaks the range top and opens UOB's 1.3440
Failure to hold psych 1.3400 and a slip back below ema20 (~1.3393) restores the range read
Loss of the 1.3355 thu low and rising support breaks the week's higher-low sequence
UK Retail Sales (Fri 06:00 UTC) and flash PMIs (08:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
US flash PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC and Middle East headlines remain the USD-side risk
Week opened at 1.3306 and the dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session: a ~100-pip breakout from the 1.3336 breakout pt to 1.3409 as soft US housing data weighed on USD. Wednesday's UK CPI beat extended it into a 1.3380–1.3400 range. Thursday's London push to a week high of 1.3419 failed to hold above the 1.3400 round number, a false break that unwound ~57 pips to a 1.3361 swing low, back below EMA(20) at 1.3387 and through the higher-lows line, with RSI(14) down to ~38 and price under the 38.2% level of the week rally fib.
Support: 1.3361, 1.3336, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3387, 1.3400, 1.3419
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.3361 swing low exposes the 50% week rally fib at 1.3358 and Tuesday's 1.3336 breakout pt
Recovery above EMA(20) at 1.3387 and back over the 1.3400 round number would negate the false-break read, with the 1.3419 week high above
Loss of 1.3336 would bring the 1.3296 week low back into view
UK retail sales (Fri 06:00 UTC) and UK/US flash PMIs on Friday could materially shift this read
1.3365–1.3409 range since Tuesday; failed break above, back near the floor.
GBPUSD climbed from Monday's 1.3296 low off the weekly open, driven by UK labour data and soft US housing into Tuesday's NY session. It then held a 1.3365–1.3409 range through Wednesday's hot CPI. London's push to a 1.3419 week high today was a false break of the range top: it unwound to a 1.3361 swing low and broke the higher-lows line from Tuesday, leaving price at the 38.2% retracement near 1.3372, below EMA(20) at 1.3389, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.3361, 1.3336, 1.3306
Resistance: 1.3389, 1.3409, 1.3419
What it said to watch
Bailey at 13:00 UTC: a hawkish tilt could bring the 1.3409 range top back into play, while a dovish one puts the 1.3361 swing low under pressure
H1 close below the 1.3361 swing low breaks the range floor and opens the Tuesday base near 1.3336, then the 1.3306 weekly open
Recovery back above EMA(20) at 1.3389 restores the range read; an H1 close above the 1.3419 week high negates the false break
UK retail sales Fri 06:00 UTC and US flash PMIs 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts
Higher-low sequence broken at 1.3361; price on 38.2% retrace of Mon-Thu rally.
GBPUSD rallied about 122 pips from Monday's 1.3296 week low. Tuesday's NY-session breakout and Wednesday's London move on the UK CPI beat did most of the work, helped by a softer USD. Thursday's London push to a 1.3419 week high failed to hold above the 1.3400 round number and reversed to a 1.3361 session low, breaking Wednesday's higher lows and dropping price below the EMA20 near 1.3390 and the EMA50, with price now resting on the 38.2% retrace of the Mon-Thu rally and RSI(14) back near 39.
Support: 1.33614, 1.33361, 1.32964
Resistance: 1.3390, 1.3400, 1.34188
What it said to watch
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Bailey's speech at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
An H1 close back above the 1.3400 round number would undo the false-break read and put the 1.3419 week high back in focus.
Failure to hold the 1.3361 session low exposes the 50% and 61.8% fib levels (1.3358/1.3343) and the 1.3336 Tue low.
Without a recovery of the EMA20 near 1.3390, the higher lows structure stays broken; the 1.3296 week low marks the base of the Mon-Thu rally.
11:02 UTC
Uptrend, rejected at week high · RSI 39 · price 1.33774
Higher lows Mon–Wed; false break above 1.3400 back to range floor.
The week's advance off Monday's 1.3296 low came in London and NY hours on Tuesday, on firm UK pay data and soft US housing figures, before Wednesday's hot CPI lifted cable into a 1.3377–1.3403 range. Thursday's London push to a 1.3419 week high failed to hold above the 1.3400 round number. The roughly 40-pip drop since has put price below EMA(20) near 1.3392, just under EMA(50), and onto the range floor at 1.3377, close to the 38.2% retracement of the week rally. RSI(14) has slipped to ~39 from the 60s, with the tue low at 1.3365 and the weekly open at 1.3306 the structure below.
Support: 1.3377, 1.3365, 1.3306
Resistance: 1.3392, 1.3400, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3377 range floor breaks the Mon–Wed higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3365 tue low
Reclaiming EMA(20) and the 1.3400 round number puts the 1.3419 week high back in play; acceptance above it voids the false-break read
US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and BoE Gov. Bailey (13:00 UTC) land within the next two bars and could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday; 1.3377-1.3419 range after Tuesday's impulse.
GBPUSD has climbed ~120 pips off Monday's 1.3299 low. Tuesday's firm UK pay data and a NY-session leg lower in the USD drove the impulse to the tue high at 1.3409, and Wednesday's CPI beat then held price in a 1.3377–1.3419 band. London's push to a week high at 1.3419 today reversed back below psych 1.3400, a false break of the tue high. That leaves price just under EMA(20), with RSI(14) back near 49 and price testing the higher-lows trendline (pullback low 1.3364, wed low 1.3377, thu low 1.3383) around 1.3390.
Support: 1.3383, 1.3377, 1.3364
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3410, 1.3419
What it said to watch
Bailey speech at 10:50 UTC could materially shift this read around psych 1.3400
H1 close below the thu low 1.3383 breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the wed low 1.3377 near the 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the pullback low 1.3364 would mark the first lower-low since Monday
H1 close back above the tue high 1.3410 and the week high 1.3419 would negate the false break
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC; a print well above 200K extends the yield-led USD slide
Higher lows since Monday's 1.3296 low; consolidating around 1.3400.
GBP/USD has climbed from Monday night's 1.3296 low. The dominant leg came into Tuesday's NY session, when the US housing misses drove a spike to the 1.3409 tue high. Wednesday's hot UK CPI produced a dip to the 1.3364 cpi low that drew demand, and the pair has since printed a series of higher lows. Supply capped the 1.3400 psych area twice into Wednesday's close before London pushed through to a 1.3419 week high this morning, and price is now holding a retest of 1.3400 with RSI(14) near 62 and above both EMAs.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33766, 1.3364
Resistance: 1.3409, 1.34188
What it said to watch
BoE Gov. Bailey at 10:50 UTC could materially shift this read: a dovish framing risks a return below the 1.3400 psych level
H1 close back below the 1.3377 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 1.3364 cpi low
Acceptance above the 1.3419 week high extends the uptrend beyond the tue high/1.3409 congestion
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC adds USD-side event risk during NY hours
08:01 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under week high · RSI 63 · price 1.34068
Higher lows pressing a flat 1.3410 cap.
GBPUSD has climbed about 110 pips from Monday's 1.3296 low. The dominant leg came during NY hours Tuesday as soft US housing data weighed on the dollar, and a 1.3365–1.3410 consolidation followed. Wednesday's dip on the hot UK CPI print held at the 1.3364 cpi low, the 38.2% retracement of the Monday-low to Tuesday-high leg, and higher lows since then into Thursday's 1.3383 asian low have carried price back to the 1.3410 week high for a third test at the London open. Price sits above the ema20 near 1.3398 with RSI(14) in the low 60s, short of overbought.
Support: 1.3398, 1.3383, 1.3364
Resistance: 1.3410, 1.3480
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3410 week high breaks the three-test cap and opens the 1.3480 next ref
Loss of the 1.3383 asian low breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 1.3364 cpi low
A third rejection at 1.3410 with a close back below the ema20 would shift the read toward a range
BoE Governor Bailey at 10:50 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Uptrend, consolidating under the week high · RSI 58 · price 1.3407
Higher lows inside 1.3378–1.3409 range after Tuesday impulse.
The week's dominant move came on Tuesday. GBP jumped on the London-hours labour data, then extended through the NY session to the 1.3409 week high as soft US housing data and falling yields weighed on the dollar, an impulse of about 110 pips off Monday's 1.3296 low and well clear of the 1.3306 week open. Since then price has held a 1.3378–1.3409 range with a rising lows line. Wednesday's hot UK CPI only produced a muted push, and dips into the range floor have found demand each time. Early Thursday price is pressing the week high again from above EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 58 rather than stretched.
Support: 1.3378, 1.3365, 1.3306
Resistance: 1.3409, 1.3480
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3409 week high breaks the consolidation and opens 1.3480, the next cited level
Failure to hold the range floor at 1.3378 and the rising lows line exposes the 38.2% fib of the impulse near 1.3365
A move back toward the 1.3306 week open would undo the Tuesday impulse structure
BoE Bailey at 10:50 UTC could materially shift this read via second-hike pricing
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC are a risk for USD-side volatility in the NY session
06:01 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under the week high · RSI 58 · price 1.34058
Higher lows pressing a flat 1.3400–1.3409 cap.
Sterling has climbed from Monday's 1.3296 week low. Tuesday's London-to-NY impulse, on firmer UK jobs data, tagged the 1.3409 week high, and price has since compressed beneath that cap on a run of higher lows. Wednesday's hot-CPI dip held the 1.3364 cpi low near the 38.2% retrace of the impulse, and price is now pressing the 1.3400 psych level in the Asia session, above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3364, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3409, 1.3480
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3409 week high breaks the cap and opens the path to ~1.3480 former support
Break of the higher-lows trendline and a close back below 1.3400 psych returns the read to range
Failure to hold the 1.3364 cpi low unwinds the higher-low sequence toward the 1.3296 week low
BoE Gov. Bailey at 10:50 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 1.3400 · RSI 57 · price 1.33969
Range 1.3364–1.3409 after impulse, higher lows.
The rally from Monday's 1.3296 week low ran hardest into Tuesday's NY session after the soft US housing data, tagging the 1.3409 week high. Price has since held a 1.3364–1.3409 range. Wednesday's hot UK CPI produced a London dip to the 1.3364 Wed low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the week impulse, and then a third rejection near 1.3400, repeated in Asia today at 1.3408. Lows are stepping up along a rising trendline and price holds above EMA(20) near 1.3393, while RSI(14) at 57 has faded on each successive test of the week high.
Support: 1.3393, 1.3364, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3409, 1.3480
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 1.3409 week high breaks the range top; the next reference is 1.3480 old support.
A break of the rising trendline and the 1.3364 Wed low (38.2% fib) would point to a deeper retracement toward the 1.3296 week low.
Repeated H1 closes below EMA(20) at 1.3393 would mark the higher-low sequence as stalling.
BoE Gov. Bailey speaks at 10:50 UTC and US jobless claims are due at 12:30 UTC; either could resolve the 1.3364–1.3409 range.
UK Retail Sales and flash PMIs on Friday are the next risk to the 1.3400 cap.
04:01 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under 1.3400 · RSI 56 · price 1.3397
Higher lows pressing into a flat 1.3400–1.3409 cap.
From Monday's 1.3306 weekly open and a 1.3296 low, the dominant leg came during NY hours on Tuesday, a roughly 110-pip impulse to the 1.3409 week high on softer US yields. Wednesday's hot UK CPI produced a London-open dip to the 1.3364 cpi low, near the 38.2% fib of the week impulse, before a recovery. Since then three rejections near the 1.3403 wed high have come against higher lows at 1.3364, 1.3377 (swing low) and 1.3383, with price holding the ema20 and RSI(14) flat in the mid-50s.
Support: 1.3392, 1.3377, 1.3364
Resistance: 1.3403, 1.3409
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3409 week high breaks the compression and lower-highs cap, opening 1.3480
Failure to hold the 1.3377 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 1.3364 cpi low / 38.2% fib
Bailey speech at 10:50 UTC today, where second-hike signals could resolve the 1.3400 cap either way
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC today, then Friday's UK retail sales and UK/US PMIs, could shift the read
Post-impulse consolidation: flat cap 1.3400–1.3409, rising lows.
Soft US housing data drove Tuesday's NY-session leg, which lifted GBPUSD out of Monday's 1.3300–1.3342 range to a week high at 1.3409. Since then the 1.3400 psych level has capped three attempts in the 1.3402–1.3409 band, and the hot UK CPI produced only a London-open dip to 1.3364, close to the 38.2% fib of the Tuesday impulse. Rising lows from that cpi low to Wednesday's 1.3377 low are being tested in the Asian session, with price pinned around a flattening EMA(20) near 1.3388 and RSI(14) back at 50.
Support: 1.3377, 1.3364, 1.3342
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3409
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3409 week high resolves the 1.3400 cap and ends the consolidation read
Loss of the rising lows and the 1.3377 wed low puts the 1.3364 cpi low / 38.2% fib back in focus
Acceptance below 1.3364 exposes Monday's 1.3342 range top and undermines the Tuesday breakout
Bailey speech at 10:50 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 1.3400 · RSI 54 · price 1.33941
Higher lows since Tuesday, flat cap at 1.3400–1.3409.
Higher lows have built since Tuesday's Asia-session week low at 1.3297. The NY-session rally, helped by soft US housing data, then printed the 1.3409 week high. Wednesday's across-the-board UK CPI beat whipsawed price down to the 1.3364 cpi low, near the 38.2% retracement, before demand returned in London. Supply has since capped three attempts at the 1.3400 psych level, and Wednesday's NY low at 1.3377 held. Price is now coiling flat on EMA(20) during the Asian range, with RSI(14) back near 54 from overbought readings earlier in the week.
Support: 1.3377, 1.3364, 1.3297
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3409
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3409 week high breaks the range top and ends the consolidation read
Failure to hold the 1.3377 ny low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 1.3364 cpi low / 38.2% retracement
BoE Governor Bailey Thu 10:50 UTC could materially shift this read via second-hike pricing
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC adds USD-side event risk during NY hours
A break below the 1.3297 week low would negate the higher-low structure
The week opened at 1.3306 (weekly open) and printed a 1.3296 low late Monday. Tuesday's UK labour data and the soft US housing prints during NY hours drove an impulse to the 1.3409 week high. Since then the pair has been capped at the 1.3400 psych level, and three Wednesday tests stalled at 1.3403 or below despite the hot UK CPI. Dips have held higher each time: the CPI low at 1.3364 sits on the fib 38.2 of the week's impulse, and Wednesday's NY low at 1.3377 came in above it. Price is holding just above a flattening EMA(20), with RSI(14) at 56 and no clear divergence at the highs.
Support: 1.3377, 1.3364, 1.3306
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3409
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3409 week high breaks the 1.3400 psych cap and ends the consolidation read
Loss of the 1.3377 ny low breaks the rising-low trendline; a move below the 1.3364 cpi low / fib 38.2 opens the weekly open at 1.3306
BoE Governor Bailey Thu 10:50 UTC could materially shift this read via December-hike pricing
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC during the NY session; a strong print would add to the USD support capping 1.3400
Higher lows compressing under a flat 1.3400–1.3409 cap.
The week's dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session. Price ran ~110 pips from Monday's 1.3296 low to the 1.3409 week high as soft US housing data weighed on USD. The hot UK CPI print only dipped price to the cpi low at 1.3364, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement, before demand returned. The 1.3400 psych level has since rejected three tests. Price sits just above EMA(20) near 1.3388 with RSI(14) flattening around 51, while Wednesday's ny low at 1.3377 holds the higher-low trendline.
Support: 1.3377, 1.3364, 1.3306
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3409
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3409 week high would break the 1.3400 psych cap after three rejections
Loss of the 1.3377 ny low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 1.3364 cpi low
A break of the 1.3364 cpi low puts the 50% retracement near 1.3353 and the 1.3306 weekly open in view
Bailey (Thu 10:50 UTC) and US jobless claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read