GBP/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 22 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the GBP/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Recovery from day low, stalling at 1.3400 · RSI 58 · price 1.34023
Tight range 1.3393–1.3407 above higher low at 1.3386.
GBPUSD slid from the 1.3419 London high to a 1.3355 day low as Iran tensions and the strong claims print lifted USD, then rebuilt the whole move during NY. Early Asia is pinned in a 1.3393–1.3407 range, with the NY high capping repeated tests and the 21:00 UTC rollover dip to 1.3386 holding near the 38.2% fib.
Support: 1.33926, 1.33858, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.34067, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3407 ny high reopens the 1.3419 london high
Loss of the 1.3393 late ny low and the 1.3386 rollover low breaks the rising support from the day low
UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 UTC, after the -24 GfK miss, could materially shift this read; flash PMIs follow at 08:30 UTC
23:31 UTC
Neutral, recovery stalling below NY high · RSI 55 · price 1.34024
Tight 1.3393–1.3407 band after V-shaped recovery from 1.3355 day low.
Early Asia has GBPUSD back above the 1.3400 round number after the rollover gap low at 1.3386 held the 38.2% of the NY rally fib from the 1.3355 day low. Price is compressing just under the 1.3407 NY high, with the 1.3419 London high, where the USD haven bid capped cable yesterday, still overhead.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33858, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.34067, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3407 ny high reopens the 1.3419 london high
Loss of the 1.3400 round number and the 1.3386 gap low exposes the 50% fib near 1.3381, then the 1.3355 day low
UK Retail Sales 06:00 UTC and flash PMIs 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Range-bound after V-shaped NY recovery · RSI 54 · price 1.34021
Higher low at 1.3393 below lower high at 1.3407; coiling at 1.3400.
London's early pop through the Asian range high to 1.3419 (london high) was a false break. Price unwound to a 1.3355 day low in NY as Iran tensions and the 194K claims print lifted the USD. The late-NY recovery stalled at the 1.3407 ny high, and price now sits on the 1.3400 round number into the new Asia session, above the 1.3393 swing low.
Support: 1.3393, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.34067, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3407 ny high and the descending line from the london high reopens 1.3419
Failure to hold the 1.3393 swing low turns the NY recovery into a lower high, exposing the 1.3355 day low
UK Retail Sales (06:00 UTC, f/c -0.1%) and flash PMIs (08:30 UTC) could materially shift this read in London
V-recovery from 1.3355 NY low; shallow pullback held 1.3390s, capped below 1.3407 NY high.
London faded from the 1.3419 session high to a 1.3355 NY low on the USD bid. The NY rally to the 1.3407 NY high followed as the dollar rebound stalled near DXY 102.00, and the late pullback held the 1.3390 swing low, under 30% of the NY rally fib. Price is back testing the 1.3400 round number in thin post-NY trade, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33903, 1.33826
Resistance: 1.34067, 1.34097, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3407 NY high exposes the 1.3410 London open high, then the 1.3419 session high
Loss of the 1.3390 swing low reopens the 1.3383 Asia low and the 38.2% of the NY rally fib
Failure to hold the 1.3400 round number keeps the 1.3390–1.3407 consolidation intact
GfK at 23:01 UTC and UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Cable rallied ~52 pips off the 1.3355 NY low to a 1.3407 NY high as the USD rebound faded late in NY hours. It has since compressed in a 1.3393–1.3407 range around 1.3400 into the Asia session, holding above the 23.6% of the NY rally fib, with the 1.3419 London high still capping.
Support: 1.3393, 1.3386, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3407 NY high exposes the 1.3419 London high
Loss of the 1.3393 range low opens the 1.3386 rollover low and the 38.2% NY rally fib near 1.3387
Break below the rollover low puts the 1.3355 NY low back in focus
UK GfK at 23:01 UTC and UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Two-way intraday, full NY recovery of the London drop · RSI 62 · price 1.34002
Tight 1.3393–1.3407 range under a lower high.
London pushed above the Asian range to a 1.3419 London high and was rejected. Price slid through the 1.3383 Asian low to a 1.3355 day low as Iran tensions and firm US claims (194K) lifted USD, then NY retraced the whole drop back to 1.3400. Since the NY close, price has held a tight band between the 1.3393 swing low and the 1.3407 NY high, a lower high beneath London's, with 1.3400 still capping.
Support: 1.3393, 1.3383, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3407 NY high breaks the post-NY range and brings the 1.3419 London high back into view
Loss of the 1.3393 swing low, near the 23.6% of the NY rally fib, exposes the 1.3383 Asian low and the 38.2% zone
A move back under the 1.3355 day low would confirm the London rejection as the dominant leg
UK Retail Sales (Fri 06:00 UTC) and flash PMIs (08:30 UTC) could reset this range at London open; GfK at 23:01 UTC is minor
22:16 UTC
Range-bound after V-shaped recovery · RSI 47 · price 1.3399
Tight 1.3393–1.3407 range, lower highs since NY high.
London saw a rejection at the 1.3419 london high and sold through the 1.3383 asian low to a 1.3355 ny low as Middle East tension lifted USD. NY then recovered almost the whole drop to a 1.3407 ny high, and price has since compressed into lower highs around the 1.3400 round number, with the 1.3393 late low holding into early Asia and RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 1.3393, 1.3383, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could break the 1.3393–1.3407 range
M15 close above the 1.3407 ny high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 1.3419 london high
Loss of the 1.3393 late low exposes the 1.3383 asian low, with the NY rebound fib below
UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 UTC is the next major GBP risk for this structure
22:01 UTC
Two-way, NY rebound stalling near 1.3400 · RSI 44 · price 1.3396
V-recovery back into the Asian range, lower high under 1.3419.
London lifted cable above the Asian range high to the 1.3419 london high, then reversed through the asian low to a 1.3355 ny low as USD drew haven demand and firm jobless claims. The NY rebound retraced the whole drop to a 1.3407 ny high. Price is now pinned just under the 1.3400 round number after a rollover gap, holding a shallow pullback of the ny rally fib.
Support: 1.3393, 1.3383, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3407 ny high reopens the 1.3419 london high
Failure to hold the 1.3393 late ny low exposes the 38.2% of the ny rally fib (~1.3387) and the 1.3383 asian low
A break of the 1.3355 ny low turns the NY rebound into a failed recovery
GfK at 23:01 UTC and UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC could materially shift the Asian range
Lower highs since NY rally peak; price back inside prior Asian range.
Cable faded from the 1.3419 day high in London to a 1.3355 day low in NY as Iran-driven USD demand hit, then recovered to a 1.3407 NY high before stalling into the rollover. Price now sits back inside the Asian range under a chain of lower highs, holding above the 38.2% retrace of the NY rally, with RSI(14) near 41 and price below EMA20.
Support: 1.3393, 1.3383, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3401, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3401 lower high breaks the descending trendline and puts the 1.3407 ny high back in focus
Failure to hold the 1.3393 swing low and 1.3383 asian low opens the 50–61.8% retrace of the NY rally near 1.3381–1.3375, with the 1.3355 day low below
GfK at 23:01 UTC and UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 UTC could break the Asian range
21:31 UTC
Rebound stalling, lower highs since late NY · RSI 41 · price 1.33923
Inside Asian range after London false break and NY low.
London pushed above the Asian high to the 1.3419 london high and reversed. The Middle East dollar bid and firm US claims drove a NY low at 1.3355. The NY rebound stalled at the 1.3407 ny high just over the 1.3400 psych level, and lower highs since have pulled price back to 1.3392, inside the Asian range, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.3393, 1.3383, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3393 late low exposes the 1.3383 asian low
Loss of the 1.3383 asian low reopens the 1.3355 ny low
M15 close back above the 1.3407 ny high voids the lower-highs read; the 1.3419 london high sits above
UK GfK at 23:01 UTC; the 21:00 rollover bar is spread-distorted
Lower highs below 1.3400 after V-recovery from day low.
GBP rebounded from the 1.3355 day low to the 1.3407 NY high as the post-claims dollar bid faded. Late NY printed a run of lower highs under 1.3400 psych, and price is drifting back to the 1.3393 late low into the Asia session, holding above the 38.2% retracement of the recovery. The rollover dip to 1.3386 was a spread spike, not a structural low.
Support: 1.33926, 1.33826, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.34067, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3393 late low opens the 50% fib near 1.3381 and the 1.3383 Asian low
Break of the lower-highs trendline and a close above the 1.3407 NY high reopens the 1.3419 day high
UK GfK consumer confidence at 23:01 UTC is minor, but Friday's UK retail sales and PMIs could reset this range
Early London tested 1.3419, but that london high was rejected. The pair then slid to a 1.3355 day low in NY as Middle East headlines and solid US claims lifted the dollar. A double bottom with the 1.3361 London low, confirmed through the 1.3380 neckline, fuelled a 52-pip NY rally to the 1.3407 NY high; late NY is now drifting under the 1.3400 round number with RSI(14) neutral at 57.
Support: 1.33926, 1.3380, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.34067, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3393 pullback low extends the NY rally retracement toward the 1.3380 neckline
M15 close above the 1.3407 NY high puts the 1.3419 london high back in play; repeated failure at the 1.3400 round number keeps the lower-high drift intact
Break of the 1.3355 day low negates the double bottom
UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 UTC and flash PMIs 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:46 UTC
Intraday range, lower high capped near 1.3400 · RSI 54 · price 1.33967
V-recovery from 1.3355 stalled at lower high 1.3407; late NY fading.
The London high at 1.3419 gave way to a USD-led slide to the 1.3355 day low on Middle East headlines and firm US claims. NY clawed back 81% to a lower high at 1.3407 (ny high) but was capped again around 1.3400, and late NY has drifted back inside the Asian range on lower highs, holding the 1.3393 late ny low near the 61.8% London-NY fib.
Support: 1.3393, 1.3383, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3393 late ny low and 61.8% fib exposes the 1.3383 asian low
A close above the 1.3407 ny high breaks the lower highs and puts the 1.3419 london high in play
The 1.3355 day low marks the floor of the 24h range
UK GfK at 23:01 UTC and Retail Sales Fri 06:00 UTC could shift this read
V-recovery from 1.3355 capped under 1.3400; lower highs since 17:15 UTC.
London ran the Asian range high to a 1.3419 london high and reversed. A Middle East-driven dollar bid then pushed the pair through the 1.3383 asian low to a 1.3355 day low in NY. The late-NY rebound stalled at the 1.3407 ny high, and price is drifting back below the 1.3400 round number into rollover on a string of lower highs.
Support: 1.33826, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.34067, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3400 round number and 1.3407 ny high negates the late-NY lower-high sequence and puts the 1.3419 london high back in play
Loss of the 1.3383 asian low, near the 50% fib of the NY rally, exposes the 1.3355 day low
GfK confidence at 23:01 UTC is minor, but UK Retail Sales (Fri 06:00 UTC) and flash PMIs (08:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:16 UTC
V-shaped NY recovery, stalling at 1.3400 · RSI 57 · price 1.33995
London high rejected, NY low at 1.3355, rebound capped below it; lower high, tight post-NY coil.
London's push to the 1.3419 london high was rejected, and Middle East-driven USD demand plus firm US claims dragged cable to a 1.3355 ny low before a 52-pip rebound to the 1.3407 ny high, a lower high. Post-NY trade is coiling just under the 1.3400 round number with only a ~21% pullback of that rally, RSI(14) neutral near 57 and ATR around 4-5 pips.
Support: 1.33868, 1.33826, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.34067, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3407 ny high breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 1.3419 london high
Failure to hold the 1.3387 fib 38.2 exposes the 1.3383 asian low; below there the 1.3355 ny low is back in view
GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could jolt thin late-session liquidity
UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 UTC is the next material GBP catalyst for this range
20:01 UTC
V-recovery stalling at 1.3400 · RSI 54 · price 1.3397
London false break above the Asian range, NY low at 1.3355, full retrace now capped below the 1.3407 ny high with lower highs.
London's push to the 1.3419 day high above the Asian range failed. It unwound to a 1.3355 day low as Middle East tension and solid US claims bid the dollar, then NY retraced the drop back to 1.3400. Late NY is drifting back under psych 1.34 with lower highs below the 1.3407 ny high, while ema20 at 1.3394 still holds.
Support: 1.3394, 1.3383, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3407 ny high reopens the 1.3419 day high
Loss of ema20 at 1.3394 exposes the 1.3383 asian low near the ny rally fib 38.2% (1.3387)
Repeated rejection at psych 1.34 keeps the late-NY lower-high sequence intact
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC lands in thin liquidity and could move this read
19:46 UTC
V-shaped recovery from NY low, stalling at 1.3400 · RSI 64 · price 1.33996
Tight late-NY range 1.3398–1.3407 with lower highs; Asian range retaken.
London's break of the Asian high topped at the 1.3419 London high. It reversed through the 1.3383 Asian low as Middle East tension and the 194K claims beat lifted USD, before a V-shaped NY rally off the 1.3355 day low. Price is now compressing at 1.3400 under a lower-highs line from the 1.3407 NY high. RSI(14) is ~64 and ATR is ~5.5 pips.
Support: 1.3398, 1.3383, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3407 NY high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 1.3419 London high
Loss of the 1.3398 micro floor exposes the NY rally fib 38–50% zone at 1.3387–1.3381, which overlaps the 1.3383 Asian low
Day low at 1.3355 comes back into view only if the Asian low fails
GfK at 23:01 UTC and UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 UTC could break the late range
19:31 UTC
Intraday V-recovery, momentum fading late NY · RSI 62 · price 1.33995
London false break above Asian range, NY low 1.3355, rebound now coiling above 1.3400.
London broke above the Asian range to a 1.3419 london high, then failed. Middle East-driven USD demand and the jobless claims beat pushed price through the asian low to a 1.3355 ny low. Late NY has reclaimed the range and is consolidating just above the 1.3400 round number, with highs edging lower under the 1.3407 asian high and RSI(14) cooling to about 62.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3383, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3400 round number puts the 1.3383 asian low back in play, with the 50% fib of the NY rally near 1.3381
A break above the 1.3407 asian high cluster reopens the 1.3419 london high, the level where London's false break failed
Losing the 1.3355 ny low would confirm a lower low and undo the NY recovery
UK GfK at 23:01 UTC lands in thin Asia liquidity; UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
19:16 UTC
V-shaped recovery from NY low, momentum fading · RSI 61 · price 1.3399
Lower highs under 1.3407 after rebound; recovery trendline giving way.
London set a 1.3419 London high before Middle East tension and the 194K jobless claims beat drove a slide to the 1.3355 NY low. The late-NY rebound reclaimed the 1.3400 round number but stalled at the 1.3407 late-NY high, which capped price three times. Price is now slipping under the recovery trendline after London close, with RSI(14) cooling to 61.
Support: 1.3387, 1.3380, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3407 late-NY high reopens the 1.3419 London high
Failure to hold the 38.2% fib at 1.3387 exposes the 50% fib near 1.3380
Loss of the 1.3355 NY low would erase the whole NY recovery
GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC and UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 1.3355 day low, lower highs from the 1.3419 day high.
London spiked to the 1.3419 day high and was rejected, sliding to a 1.3355 day low in the first hours of NY as Middle East tensions and firm US claims lifted the dollar. The rebound has retraced nearly 80% of that drop and is now compressing at the 1.3400 round number after London close, capped by a descending line off the day high, with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33868, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.34067, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3407 rebound high breaks the descending cap and exposes the 1.3419 day high
Failure to hold the 1.3400 round number shifts focus to the 38.2% fib of the rebound at 1.3387
A break below the 1.3355 day low would confirm a lower-low and undo the recovery
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC and UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC Friday could shift this read
18:46 UTC
V-shaped recovery, pressing range top · RSI 69 · price 1.34032
London false break above Asian high reversed to NY low; rally back to Asian high.
London pushed through the Asian high to a 1.3419 london high and failed. The drop ran into a 1.3355 session low during NY hours as Middle East tension and firm jobless claims lifted the dollar. The NY rally line from that low has carried price back to the Asian high near 1.3408, now compressing just above 1.3400 psych late in NY with RSI(14) near 69 and the move about 75% retraced on the London-NY fib.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33826, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.3408, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3408 asian high reopens the 1.3419 london high
Break of the NY rally line and loss of 1.3400 psych exposes the 1.3383 asian low
Failure below the asian low brings the 1.3355 session low back into play
GfK at 23:01 UTC and UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC Fri could reset the intraday range
NY low swept, Asian range reclaimed, tight 1.3400–1.3407 band.
London faded from the 1.3419 london high through the asian low, and NY extended to a 1.3355 session low after firm US jobless claims, sweeping the late-London trough at 1.3361. The USD fade into the NA close drove a V-recovery back through the Asian range to 1.3407 (ny high). Price is now compressing just above 1.3400 psych after London close, with RSI(14) near 69 and the rally's rising-low sequence already flattening.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33826, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.34067, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 1.3400 psych exposes the 1.3383 asian low, near the 50% ny rally fib at 1.3381
Acceptance above the 1.3407 ny high brings the 1.3419 london high back into view; no daily close above 1.3400 since mid-Sep
Loss of 1.3355 session low would negate the sweep-and-reclaim read
UK GfK at 23:01 UTC and Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC Fri could reset the Asian range
18:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend off NY low, momentum stalling · RSI 70 · price 1.34022
V-recovery, higher lows since 1.3355 sweep; pausing below ny high.
NY session swept the 1.3355 session low around 14:45 UTC, then reversed the London selloff with a 50-pip higher-low rally to the 1.3407 ny high as the dollar's rebound faded into the NA close. Price is now holding just above the 1.3400 round number with RSI(14) near 70, while the 1.3419 day high from the London open caps above.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33807, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.34067, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3400 round number points to a pullback toward the fib 50% at 1.3381
Break of rally support turns the NY recovery into a range
Clearance of the 1.3419 day high extends the higher-high chain
GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could shift the late-session read
London high rejected, NY low reclaimed, retesting Asian high.
London briefly broke the Asian high and was rejected at the 1.3419 london high. Middle East risk-off and the 194K jobless claims print then drove a 64-pip slide to the 1.3355 ny low during NY hours. The after-London-close recovery has retraced about 78.6% of that drop and is now pressing the 1.3408 asian high above the 1.3400 round number, with RSI(14) near 76 and bar ranges contracting.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33943, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.3408, 1.34188
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.3408 asian high reopens the 1.3419 london high
Failure to hold the 1.3400 round number exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.3394, then the 1.3355 ny low
GfK at 23:01 UTC and UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
V-shaped reversal; NY afternoon higher lows retracing the London sell-off.
London ran to a 1.3419 london high, then sold off about 64 pips as the claims beat and Middle East headlines lifted the dollar. The drop swept the late-morning lows to a 1.3355 day low mid-NY. The NY afternoon then retraced roughly 78.6% of the drop back above the 1.3400 round number, with RSI(14) cooling near 68 just under the 1.3407 ny high.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33943, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.34067, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3400 round number and the rally trendline would signal the recovery stalling, exposing the fib 61.8 at 1.3394
Acceptance above the 1.3407 ny high opens the path to the 1.3419 london high
Loss of 1.3394 puts the 1.3355 day low back in focus
UK GfK at 23:01 UTC and Friday's 06:00 UTC UK Retail Sales could reset the Asian and early London range
17:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend off NY low, stalling at 1.3400s · RSI 71 · price 1.34029
V-recovery, HH/HL chain since 13:45 UTC, testing Asia high.
The London slide from the 1.3419 London high to the 1.3355 day low tracked dollar demand on Middle East tensions and the jobless-claims beat. The NY session then recovered about 50 pips in a clean HH/HL chain, and price is now flattening after London close at 1.3405–1.3408. That zone is the Asia high and the 78.6% fib, with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3380, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.3408, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3408 asia high exposes the 1.3419 london high
Failure to hold the 1.3400 round number puts the 1.3380 rally base back in play
Loss of 1.3380 reopens the 1.3355 day low and negates the NY recovery
GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC and UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC could reset the Asian range
17:16 UTC
Sharp late-NY recovery after an intraday selloff · RSI 70 · price 1.34045
London false break above the asian high, sell-off to a 1.3355 day low, V-shaped rebound back to 1.3400.
London's push above the asian high to 1.3419 failed. The dollar bid on Middle East tensions and firm claims dragged the pair through the 1.3361 london low to a 1.3355 day low in NY. A 50-pip recovery since 14:45 UTC has retraced ~78% of that drop and reclaimed the 1.3400 round number. RSI(14) is near 70 as price presses the asian high.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33614, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.34097, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3419 london high would void the London false-break read.
Rejection at the 1.3410 asian high, then a close back below the 1.3400 round number, keeps the London high capping.
Loss of the recovery trendline near 1.3385 reopens the 1.3361 london low and the 1.3355 day low.
GfK at 23:01 UTC is minor. Friday's 06:00 UTC UK Retail Sales could materially shift this read.
V-shaped recovery from session low, testing the London cap inside the 1.3355–1.3419 session range.
NY hours briefly broke below the London low to a 1.3355 session low. The move reversed into a 47-pip V-shaped recovery that cleared the 1.3379 midday top and reclaimed the 1.3400 round number after London close as the post-claims dollar bid faded. Price now sits near the 78.6% retracement of the session-high drop, just under the 1.3409 London cap, with RSI(14) at 67 and rising support intact.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3379, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3409, 1.3419
What it said to watch
Close back below the 1.3400 round number would mark the London cap as a rejection
Break above the 1.3419 session high clears the full London-NY drop
Loss of rising support and the 1.3379 midday top would return price toward the 1.3355 session low
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC could shift the late-session read
V-shaped rebound from NY low back into Asian range, higher lows since 14:45 UTC.
London was rejected at the 1.3419 session high, and a 64-pip slide followed as Middle East tension and firm US claims lifted the dollar. The slide swept the London low and bottomed at the 1.3355 NY low. Price has since retraced to the 61.8% fib near 1.3394, back inside the 1.3383–1.3408 Asian range, with RSI(14) at 62 and the 1.3400 round number just overhead.
Support: 1.33826, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.34081, 1.34188
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 61.8% fib / 1.3400 round number keeps the recovery a retracement of the London-NY drop
M15 close above the 1.3408 asian high reopens the 1.3419 session high
Break of the recovery line and a close below the 1.3383 asian low exposes the 1.3355 ny low
UK GfK at 23:01 UTC is minor; UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 UTC is the next GBP catalyst
London sweep of Asian high, NY lower low reclaimed.
London swept the 1.3408 asian high to a 1.3419 session high. Dollar demand on Middle East tensions and firm jobless claims then drove a 64-pip drop. The NY dip under the 1.3361 london low to a 1.3355 day low reversed fast, and price has reclaimed the 1.3383 asian low to sit at the 61.8% fib near 1.3394, just under the 1.3400 round number.
Support: 1.3383, 1.3361, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3408, 1.3419
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.3383 asian low keeps price back inside the Asian range; losing it reopens the 1.3361 london low
M15 close above the 1.3400 round number and 1.3408 asian high exposes the 1.3419 session high; 1.3400 has capped daily closes since 15 Sep
Break below the 1.3355 day low invalidates the false-break read
Recovery trendline from the day low gives way below 1.3365
UK GfK consumer confidence at 23:01 UTC is next; UK retail sales Fri 06:00 UTC carries more risk
London high rejected, NY day low false-broke, V-shaped recovery into 61.8% fib.
The London high at 1.3419 was rejected, and NY extended to a 1.3355 day low as strong US claims and Middle East tensions lifted the dollar. That break under the 1.3361 morning low failed. A 37-pip rebound after London close has printed a higher low at 1.3364, reclaimed the 1.3379 range top and is now pressing the 61.8% fib near 1.3394, just under 1.3400 psych.
Support: 1.3379, 1.3364, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3394, 1.3400, 1.3419
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3400 psych reopens the London high at 1.3419
Rejection at the 61.8% fib and a slip back under the 1.3379 range top would mark the rebound as corrective
Loss of the 1.3364 higher low exposes the 1.3355 day low and breaks the NY higher-low trendline
Fresh Middle East headlines or oil spikes could revive USD demand and change this read; UK GfK at 23:01 UTC is minor
Lower highs and lower lows from the London high; Asian range broken lower.
London set the day high at 1.3419, then broke the Asian low at 1.3383. NY extended to a fresh day low at 1.3355 as USD firmed after the jobless claims beat. The bounce is capping at a lower high near 1.3374, around EMA20 and under the 1.3379 fib 38.2 level, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 1.33614, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.33742, 1.33792, 1.33826
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3379 (fib 38.2) breaks the lower-high sequence; above 1.3383 puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.3361 swing low exposes the 1.3355 day low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
UK GfK Consumer Confidence at 23:01 UTC lands in thin liquidity and could jolt this read
London false break above Asian high reversed; NY grinding below range top.
London's push above the Asian range high to 1.3419 failed, and the slide through the 1.3400 round number ran to a 1.3361 london low. NY printed a lower session low at 1.3355 as USD firmed after the claims beat, while a lower high at 1.3374 under the 1.3379 range top caps the bounce; RSI(14) sits near 35.
Support: 1.33614, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.33742, 1.3379, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3379 range top, near the 38.2% fib of the london high fib, invalidates the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 1.3355 session low extends the lower-low sequence; the 1.3361 london low is the first test
1.3400 round number flipped from support to the overhead reference after the London break
GfK Consumer Confidence 23:01 UTC and UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bounce off day low · RSI 47 · price 1.3370
Lower highs and lower lows since the London false break above 1.3400.
London's push to 1.3419 above the 1.3400 round number failed. Price reversed through the Asian low at 1.3383, and NY extended the lower-low chain to a 1.3355 day low as USD pared losses after the claims beat and the oil spike. The bounce to 1.3370 sits just under EMA20, with the 1.3379 lower high and the 38.2% fib overhead in the late London-NY overlap.
Support: 1.3361, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3379, 1.3383, 1.3400
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3379 lower high and 38.2% fib breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 1.3383 asian low
The 1.3400 round number only comes back into view on a reclaim of the asian low
Failure to hold the 1.3361 london low and the 1.3355 day low extends the lower-low sequence
UK GfK at 23:01 UTC, then Retail Sales (06:00 UTC) and flash PMIs (08:30 UTC), could reset the read
14:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower lows into NY · RSI 29 · price 1.33583
Lower-high/lower-low chain from the 1.3419 London high; Asian and London lows both broken.
London's push above 1.3400 to 1.3419 failed as a false break, and price dropped through the Asian low near 1.3383. NY has since broken the London low at 1.3362 to a session low of 1.3356 as USD steadied after the 194K claims beat. Lower highs at 1.3379 sit under a descending trendline from 1.3419, and RSI(14) is near 29 without a sub-20 extreme.
Support: 1.33555, 1.3350, 1.3330
Resistance: 1.33615, 1.33786, 1.3383
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3362 london low would mark the NY break as a false break
A close above the 1.3379 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; that level is also the 38.2% of the drop from 1.3419
A hold below the 1.3350 psych level extends the lower lows toward 1.3330 uob support
The 1.3383 asian low is the upper boundary of the broken range
UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 UTC and flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the London high; tight range above the session low.
London pushed through the 1.3410 monthly high to a 1.3419 session high, then reversed. The sell-off broke the 1.3383–1.3408 Asian range and ran to a 1.3361 session low, a false break. Price has since held a 1.3361–1.3379 range under a lower-highs trendline, and early NY is retesting the session low as the dollar steadies after the 194K claims beat.
Support: 1.3361, 1.3330
Resistance: 1.3379, 1.3383, 1.3419
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3361 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.3330 sup
Reclaim of the 1.3379 range top and 1.3383 asian low (38.2% of the sell-off) breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Late headlines from Bailey's speech on the pace of hikes beyond November could shift GBP intraday
14:16 UTC
Downtrend after London reversal, NY ranging · RSI 39 · price 1.33666
Lower highs from the 1.3419 London high; tight NY range at the lows.
London spiked to a 1.3419 london high above the 1.3410 monthly high, then reversed through the 1.3383 asian low to a 1.3361 session low. That false break of the monthly high came as the USD steadied after the 194K claims beat. NY has held a 1.3365–1.3379 range below the 38.2% retracement of that drop. Price is now pressing the ny low with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.33653, 1.33614, 1.3333
Resistance: 1.3379, 1.33826, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3361 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.3330 uob support
Close back above the 1.3379 ny high and the 1.3383 asian low (38.2% level) undercuts the London reversal read
UK GfK consumer confidence at 23:01 UTC is the next scheduled GBP risk
14:01 UTC
Downtrend after London reversal, now stalling · RSI 36 · price 1.33685
Asian range broken lower; tight 1.3361–1.3379 range into NY.
London spiked through the 1.3400 psych level to a session high of 1.3419 and failed. That false break fits the digest's overbought read on sterling. The late-London selloff then cut through the Asian low at 1.3383 to 1.3361, and price has since coiled in a 1.3361–1.3379 range into the NY session, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.3361, 1.3330
Resistance: 1.3379, 1.3383, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3379 range top and the 1.3383 Asian low (~38.2% of the London selloff) puts price back inside the Asian range and undercuts the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 1.3361 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.3330 UOB support
Any Bailey speech headlines, tonight's GfK (23:01 UTC) and Friday's 06:00 UTC UK retail sales could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Downtrend after London reversal, now basing · RSI 40 · price 1.33722
Lower highs from 1.3419; tight 1.3365–1.3379 range below broken Asian low.
London pushed through the 1.3400 psych level to 1.3419, then reversed hard, losing the Asian low at 1.3383 and printing a London low at 1.3361, in line with the digest's read of GBP stalling near 1.3400. Early NY is holding a 1.3365–1.3379 range, with the range top just under the 38.2% fib of the drop and the broken Asian low.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3361
Resistance: 1.3379, 1.3383, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3383 asian low and 38.2% fib undercuts the breakdown read
Loss of the 1.3365 range low and 1.3361 london low extends the lower-low sequence
Late headlines from Bailey's 13:00 UTC speech on the pace of BoE hikes could shift this read
UK GfK consumer confidence at 23:01 UTC could move price in the Asia session
London range break lower, tight higher-low base under 1.3379.
London rejected the spike to 1.3419 and broke below the Asian low at 1.3383 and the prior-day low at 1.3377, bottoming at the 1.3361 London low. Into the NY open, price is building higher lows under 1.3379 near the 23.6% retracement of the London drop, and the 194K claims beat barely moved the dollar.
Support: 1.3367, 1.3361
Resistance: 1.3379, 1.3383, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3379 prior low and the 1.3383 Asian low reclaims the broken range
A break of the higher lows line and the 1.3361 London low resumes the London downtrend
Bailey speech headlines (13:00 UTC) on the pace beyond November could jolt GBP. The 1.3400 round number caps above
False break of Asian high, then lower lows; tight base above session low.
London pushed above the Asian range to a 1.3419 london high, then failed. The pullback from the one-month-high area broke the 1.3383 asian low and printed a 1.3361 session low at 11:00 UTC. Price has since held a 1.3365–1.3379 band (base low to base high) below EMA20 into Bailey's 13:00 UTC remarks, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.33653, 1.33614, 1.3333
Resistance: 1.3379, 1.33826, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3379 base high opens a retest of the 1.3383 asian low, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the london high-low drop
Failure at the 1.3365 base low and a break of the 1.3361 session low resume the London selloff, with 1.3330 strong supp next
Bailey (13:00 UTC): a dovish, one-and-done framing would pressure the base, while second-hike talk could lift price back toward the 1.3419 london high
Failed breakout above 1.3400, lower lows, now a tight 1.3361–1.3379 box.
London lifted through 1.3400 to a 1.3419 session high, then reversed about 57 pips. The drop cut through the Asian range (1.3383–1.3408) and Tuesday's prior low near 1.3378, reaching a 1.3361 session low as the overbought GBP move unwound. Price is now consolidating 1.3361–1.3379 with a higher low at 1.3365 into Bailey's 13:00 UTC remarks. RSI(14) is near 37 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3361
Resistance: 1.3378, 1.3400, 1.3419
What it said to watch
Bailey is speaking now (13:00 UTC). Second-round inflation language versus a one-and-done framing is the catalyst for the 1.3361–1.3379 box.
An M15 close back above the prior low at 1.3378 and the 38.2% fib near 1.3383 reopens the round number at 1.3400.
Failure to hold the higher low at 1.3365 and the 1.3361 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.3330.
Only a recovery through the 1.3419 session high negates the false break above 1.3400.
Lower highs from 1.3419; tight 1.3365–1.3379 base after Asian range break.
London's push above the Asian high to a 1.3419 session high turned into a false break. Price then broke the Asian low at 1.3383 and yesterday's NY low, bottoming at the 1.3361 session low and giving back the post-CPI gains. The bounce stalled at 1.3379 (bounce high), about a 30% retrace, and price is compressing above the 1.3365 bounce low into Bailey, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.33653, 1.33614
Resistance: 1.3379, 1.33826, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3383 asian low, also the 38.2% fib of the London drop, would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Break of the 1.3365 bounce low and the 1.3361 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Bailey speaks at 13:00 UTC. A hawkish or dovish read could break the 1.3365–1.3379 compression quickly
The 1.3400 round number caps above. The descending line from the session high is still respected
Asian range broken lower in London, lower highs from 1.3419.
London briefly cleared the Asian range high to a 1.3419 session high, then reversed. The selloff broke the Asian low at 1.3383 and the prior-day low near 1.3377, reaching a 1.3361 session low, against the GBP-supportive digest backdrop. The 1.3379 bounce high stalled between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib levels, and RSI(14) has recovered from about 25 to 34 into the London-NY transition, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.33614, 1.3350
Resistance: 1.3379, 1.33826, 1.34188
What it said to watch
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and Bailey at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read. A persistence-focused Bailey message would put the 1.3419 session high back in view.
A close back above the asian low at 1.3383 (38.2% fib) undermines the range-break read.
Failure to hold the 1.3361 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 1.3350 round number.
The descending line from 1.3410 is capping the bounce high at 1.3379. A break of the line would end the lower-high chain.
12:16 UTC
Downtrend since London, early NY bounce · RSI 40 · price 1.33767
London high at 1.3419 rejected, Asian range broken lower, price retesting the break from below.
London open pushed above the Asian range to a 1.3419 session high. Price then reversed hard through the 1.3383 Asian low and yesterday's NY low, giving back the post-CPI highs and printing a 1.3361 London low. The early NY bounce is stalling at the 1.3379 bounce high, just under the Asian low and the 38.2% of the London drop fib, with US claims and Bailey due inside the hour.
Support: 1.33652, 1.33614
Resistance: 1.3379, 1.33833, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.3383 (Asian low / 38.2% of the London drop fib) negates the breakdown read and puts the 1.3400 round number back in play
Rejection at the 1.3379 bounce high followed by loss of the 1.3365 higher low reopens the 1.3361 London low
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Bailey at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
False break above 1.3410, then range break below the Asian low.
London open pushed to a session high at 1.3419, above the 1.3410 monthly high, and failed. The 57-pip reversal broke the Asian low at 1.3383 and the prior low at 1.3377, unwinding part of the overbought CPI-driven run ahead of Bailey. Price is holding just above the 1.3361 session low into the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) near 29. The prior low and the 38.2% fib, which lines up with the Asian low, sit overhead.
Support: 1.33614
Resistance: 1.33766, 1.33826, 1.34188
What it said to watch
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and the Bailey speech at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above 1.3383 (Asian low / 38.2% fib) puts price back inside the Asian range
A break below the 1.3361 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.3377 prior low is the first sign the breakdown is stalling
11:46 UTC
Downtrend from London high, early bounce · RSI 36 · price 1.33725
False break above Asian range high, then lower highs/lows through Asian low.
London pushed above the Asian range high to 1.3419, failed, and slid back under the 1.3400 psych handle. The drop broke the 1.3383 asian low and yesterday's 1.3377 prior low before a 1.3361 session low. Late-London bounce has RSI(14) recovering from about 25 to 36, with the broken 1.3377–1.3383 zone now overhead.
Support: 1.33614, 1.3350
Resistance: 1.33766, 1.33826, 1.3400
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3377 prior low and 1.3383 asian low, which is the 38.2% of the london drop fib, would undo the range break
Failure to hold the 1.3361 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3350 round number
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Bailey at 13:00 UTC both land within the next hour and could materially shift this read
Recovery above the 61.8% of the london drop fib near 1.3397 puts the 1.3400 psych level back in play
Lower highs since London high; Asian low and prior low broken.
London's push to the 1.3419 london high was a false break above the 1.3410 monthly high. Price then printed lower highs and fell about 57 pips, through the 1.3383 asian low and the 1.3377 prior low, to a 1.3361 session low. The drop runs against the firm-GBP digest, and RSI(14) near 26 shows the move is stretched heading into Bailey.
Support: 1.33614, 1.3350
Resistance: 1.33766, 1.33826, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3377 prior low and 1.3383 asian low would neutralise the breakdown
Failure to hold the 1.3361 session low opens the 1.3350 round number
Reclaim of the 1.3419 london high would break the lower-highs sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and BoE Bailey 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Retracement into 38.2–50% of the london drop fib (~1.3383–1.3390) tests the asian low
11:16 UTC
Downtrend, London selloff extending · RSI 25 · price 1.3363
False break above Asian high, then range break lower to new window low.
London lifted cable above the Asian range high to 1.3419, then reversed back below the 1.3400 psych level. The drop cut through the asian low at 1.3383 and yesterday's prior low at 1.3377, then printed a session low at 1.3361 with RSI(14) near 25. The move runs against the digest's firm-GBP read, with US claims and Bailey still ahead.
Support: 1.3361, 1.3350
Resistance: 1.3377, 1.3383, 1.3400
What it said to watch
Holding below the 1.3377 prior low keeps the range break intact. A reclaim of the asian low at 1.3383, which matches the 38.2% of the London selloff fib, would point to a deeper retrace.
Failure to hold the 1.3361 session low leaves the 1.3350 round number as the next reference.
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and BoE Gov. Bailey at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read. A return above 1.3400 psych would undo the break.
11:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend after a London reversal · RSI 28 · price 1.33766
Lower highs since the 08:15 UTC spike; Asian range broken to the downside.
London spiked to a 1.3419 session high at 08:15 UTC, briefly through the 1.3410 monthly high cited in the GBP digest, then reversed. That false break has since unwound the full Asian range (1.3383–1.3408), and price is now pressing yesterday's prior low at 1.3377 with RSI(14) near 28, still above the sub-20 extreme.
Support: 1.33766, 1.3350
Resistance: 1.33826, 1.33975, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3383 asian low would mark the range break as failed
Failure to hold the 1.3377 prior low leaves the 1.3350 round number as the next reference
Recovery through the 1.3398 fib 50% of the London drop would neutralise the lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and BoE Gov. Bailey at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
1.3419 session high remains the cap on the session structure
Lower highs from London session high, Asian low breached on wicks.
London took out the 1.3410 Asian high to a 1.3419 session high, but the break failed and price faded on lower highs. A 09:45 UTC drop reached a 1.3381 session low, just under the Asian low, and price is now basing above yesterday's 1.3377 prior low with RSI(14) near 36. The intraday drop has erased the hot-CPI lift into the 1.3400-1.3410 area.
Support: 1.3381, 1.3377
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3410, 1.3419
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3377 prior low confirms a lower low beyond the session low
Recovery through the 1.3400 round number (50% fib of the drop) weakens the false break read; the 1.3410 Asian high sits above
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Bailey at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Intraday reversal lower after failed London breakout · RSI 35 · price 1.33839
False break above Asian high, lower low at Asian range floor.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.3408 to a 1.3419 session high, but the move was rejected. The 38-pip London drop then erased the CPI-driven gains and is now pressing the session low at 1.3381, with RSI(14) near 35. The 1.3400 round number, which is also the 50% retracement of that drop, now sits overhead.
Support: 1.3381, 1.3377
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3408, 1.3419
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3381 session low and the 1.3377 prior low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.3400 round number (50% of the London drop) shifts the read back to a range inside the Asian high
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Bailey at 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
False break above 1.3400 unwound back to Asian range low.
Early London cleared the 1.3400 round number and the 1.3408 Asian high to a session high at 1.3419, but the London drop erased the whole move. It dipped just under the Asian low to a 1.3381 session low, a false break of the one-month-high zone despite the hot UK CPI backdrop. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 38, and the prior low at 1.3377 is just beneath.
Support: 1.3381, 1.3377
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3408, 1.3419
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 closes back above the 1.3400 round number would negate the false-break read
Failure to hold the 1.3381 session low and 1.3377 prior low extends the London drop below yesterday's range
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and BoE Governor Bailey 13:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian high at 1.3408 caps any rebound inside the London drop retracement
London false break above Asian high, reversal back into range.
The London session pushed above the 1.3408 Asian high to a 1.3419 session high but could not hold beyond the 1.3410 monthly-high area. The 09:45 UTC bar dropped 13 pips back through the 1.3400 round number to a 1.3391 swing low, putting price near the 78.6% retracement of the Asian low–session high leg and below both EMAs.
Support: 1.33908, 1.33826, 1.33766
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.34081, 1.34188
What it said to watch
BoE Governor Bailey at 10:50 UTC is high risk: second-hike language vs an energy-only framing could decide whether 1.3400 is reclaimed
An M15 close back above the 1.3400 round number and 1.3408 Asian high would undo the false-break read
Failure to hold the 1.3391 swing low exposes the 1.3383 Asian low, then the 1.3377 prior low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could move the USD leg
Higher lows since Asia; lower highs under the 1.3419 session high.
London pushed through the Asian high to a 1.3419 session high but was rejected, a false break that has pulled price back to 1.3403. GBP is holding its post-CPI firmness while capped near the 1.3410 monthly high. Price now sits on the rising line from the 1.3383 Asian low, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement, with RSI(14) flat near 50 and the London low at 1.3398 directly beneath.
Support: 1.3398, 1.3383
Resistance: 1.3410, 1.3419
What it said to watch
Bailey speech at 10:50 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3398 london low breaks the rising line and the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.3383 asian low
Close back above the 1.3410 monthly high reopens the 1.3419 session high
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, early in NY hours, is a second volatility point
Higher lows since Asia; London broke Asian high, now compressing under lower highs.
London broke the Asian range high at 1.3408 and spiked to 1.3419 before a rejection. Price is now compressing between a lower high at 1.3412 and a pivot low near 1.3403, just above the fib 50% at 1.3400, with RSI(14) neutral at 56. The bid reflects GBP firmness after this week's hot CPI and a USD pinned at three-week lows as US yields slip; Bailey at 10:50 UTC is the next catalyst.
Support: 1.3403, 1.3398, 1.3383
Resistance: 1.3412, 1.3419
What it said to watch
Bailey speech at 10:50 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3419 london high extends the breakout; holding under the 1.3412 lower high keeps the compression intact
M15 close below the 1.3398 london low returns price inside the Asian range and points to a false break
A break of the rising lows line and the 1.3383 asian low would end the intraday higher-low chain
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could move the USD leg
09:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below London high · RSI 53 · price 1.34066
Higher lows off Asian low; 1.3419 spike rejected, price back at Asian range top.
London cleared the Asian high at 1.3408 and spiked to a 1.3419 London high, but the move was rejected and price is back near 1.3407, retesting the old range top. The higher-low chain from the 1.3383 Asian low is intact on a softer USD and yields; RSI(14) is flat near 53 and ATR(14) is about 7 pips.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33976, 1.33826
Resistance: 1.34081, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3408 asian high reopens the 1.3419 london high
M15 close below the 1.3400 psych level and the rising-lows trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 1.3398 london low
Loss of the 1.3383 asian low would undo the overnight advance
BoE Gov. Bailey speaks at 10:50 UTC; his tone on a second hike could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC are the next USD-side catalyst
09:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling after a rejection · RSI 58 · price 1.34066
Higher lows since 1.3383; London failed above the Asian high.
Two hours into London, GBP/USD spiked above the asian high (1.3408) to a london high of 1.3419 on post-CPI demand, but was rejected and is back near 1.3407, around the 38.2% level of the asia–london fib. Lows have stepped higher all session from the 1.3383 asian low, and the higher-low trendline sits near the 1.3400 round number.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33976, 1.33826
Resistance: 1.34081, 1.34188
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3419 london high cancels the false-break read
A break of the 1.3400 round number and the higher-low trendline exposes the 1.3398 london low, then the 1.3383 asian low
BoE Gov. Bailey speaks at 10:50 UTC; a dovish or hawkish tone could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC fall inside the next NY open window
Higher lows from the Asian low; London broke the Asian range high and is retesting it.
London open pushed GBPUSD through the Asian high at 1.3408 to a session high at 1.3419. The move faded straight back to the breakout level, with RSI(14) cooling to around 58. Higher lows since the 1.3383 Asian low still hold along rising support, with softer US yields underpinning the pound near its monthly high.
Support: 1.33976, 1.33826
Resistance: 1.34081, 1.34188
What it said to watch
Holding the Asian high at 1.3408 on M15 closes confirms the retest; a return inside the Asian range turns the London push into a false break
An M15 close below the London low at 1.3398 breaks rising support and the 61.8% fib area, ending the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 1.3419 session high extends the London breakout
BoE Governor Bailey at 10:50 UTC (13:50 broker) could materially shift this read, and US Jobless Claims follow at 12:30 UTC
08:31 UTC
Uptrend, fresh session high · RSI 64 · price 1.34128
Higher lows from Asian low; Asian range broken higher.
Early in the London session, the 08:15 UTC bar cleared the Asian high and the 1.3410 monthly high, printing a session high at 1.3419. The move came on a firm GBP and soft USD as yields slide. The rising support line from the 1.3383 Asian low remains intact, the London low at 1.3398 holds, and RSI(14) at 64 is not stretched.
Support: 1.3408, 1.3398, 1.3383
Resistance: 1.3419, 1.3450
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 1.3408 Asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3398 London low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support line
Acceptance above the 1.3419 session high opens the path to the 1.3450 round number; the fib of the Asian low–session high leg frames any pullback
BoE Governor Bailey at 10:50 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Higher lows, capped at monthly high · RSI 55 · price 1.34019
Compressing under 1.3410 session high on rising support.
London open printed a 1.3410 session high, a few pips over the 1.3408 Asian high, but supply has capped every probe there since 03:00 UTC. The 08:00 UTC bar was rejected back to 1.3398, while lows keep stepping up from 1.3383 on rising support as softer US yields weigh on USD. RSI(14) sits near 55, so momentum is neutral at the level.
Support: 1.33976, 1.33826, 1.33766
Resistance: 1.34097
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3410 session high breaks the monthly-high cap
Failure to hold the 1.3398 london low and the rising support line exposes the 1.3383 Asian low, then the 1.3377 swing low
BoE Governor Bailey at 10:50 UTC could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) is the next USD risk
Higher lows from Asian low, marginal break of Asian range high at London open.
London open lifted GBPUSD through the Asian range high near 1.3408 to a session high at 1.3410, which is also the monthly high. The move is backed by GBP firmness after the hot CPI and softer US yields. The higher-low chain from the 1.3383 Asian low is intact, and pullbacks are holding above yesterday's 1.3400 prior high.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3395, 1.3383
Resistance: 1.3410
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3400 prior high puts the session-high breakout in question
Loss of the 1.3395 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain toward the 1.3383 Asian low
Sustained trade above the 1.3410 session high clears the monthly high
BoE Governor Bailey at 10:50 UTC could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC is a second volatility point
Higher lows compressing beneath the 1.3408–1.3410 session highs.
London open pushed just past the 1.3408 asian high to a 1.3410 london high, near the monthly high, and was rejected back to 1.3403. Price now sits in a tight 1.3396–1.3410 box, with higher lows stepping up from the 1.3383 asian low and the 1.3396 swing low aligned with the fib 38.2% of the 1.3377–1.3410 leg. GBP stays firm on the hot CPI print and softer US yields. RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 1.3396, 1.33826, 1.33766
Resistance: 1.34081, 1.34097
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3410 london high clears the asian high cap and the monthly-high zone
Loss of the 1.3396 swing low and the higher lows trendline exposes the 1.3383 asian low, then the 1.3377 prior low
BoE Governor Bailey at 10:50 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Early London cleared the Asian high and printed a 1.3410 session high before stalling. Price is retesting yesterday's 1.3403 prior high, with the higher-low chain off the 1.3383 Asian low intact. GBP is firm on BoE hike pricing and USD is heavy on softer yields. RSI(14) at 59 is not stretched.
Support: 1.3403, 1.3396, 1.3383
Resistance: 1.3410
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3410 session high extends the breakout through the monthly high
Close below the 1.3396 pullback low breaks the higher-low trendline and returns price to the Asian range
Loss of the 1.3383 Asian low invalidates the intraday uptrend read
Bailey speech at 10:50 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:01 UTC
Intraday uptrend, capped at Asian high · RSI 57 · price 1.34048
Higher lows since 02:00 UTC under a flat 1.3408 ceiling.
London open finds GBPUSD pressing the 1.3408 Asian high for a fourth time, just under the 1.3410 monthly high. BoE hike pricing and soft US yields are underpinning the pair. The Asian rally built higher lows off the 1.3383 Asian low, and the 06:30 UTC dip held the 1.3396 swing low near the 50% retracement.
Support: 1.3396, 1.3383, 1.3377
Resistance: 1.3408, 1.3410
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3410 monthly high clears the repeated rejection at the Asian high
Break of the 1.3396 swing low snaps the higher lows trendline and reopens the 1.3383 Asian low
Loss of 1.3383 exposes the 1.3377 24h low and negates the Asian rally structure
Bailey speech 10:50 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Rising lows from 1.3383 under twin Asian highs at 1.3408.
Asia lifted cable from the 1.3383 Asian low through the 1.3400 round number twice. Both pushes stalled at the 1.3408 Asian high, the same cap that held after yesterday's CPI beat. Rising lows at 1.3395 keep the intraday swing low chain intact going into London open.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33947, 1.33826
Resistance: 1.3408
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3408 Asian high clears the week's 1.3409 peak and breaks the twin-top cap
Loss of the 1.3395 swing low, which sits near the 50% retrace of the Asia rally, breaks the rising lows
A move back under the 1.3383 Asian low negates the Asia leg entirely
BoE's Bailey at 10:50 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC are the session's main risk to this read
Rising lows from 1.3377; testing the Asian high at 1.3408.
A late-Asia push cleared yesterday's 1.3403 London high and is holding just above the 1.3400 psych level into London open. The Asian high at 1.3408 sits overhead, and the 03:00 UTC spike there was faded to a 1.3394 swing low, roughly 56% of the Asia leg. Rising lows from 1.3377 remain intact, though cable has repeatedly stalled near 1.3400 this week despite the UK CPI beat.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3394, 1.3383
Resistance: 1.3408
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3408 Asian high clears this week's 1.3409 peak and breaks the Asian range
A drop back below the 1.3400 psych level turns the push into a false break, with the 1.3394 swing low next
Loss of the 1.3383 Asian low breaks the rising lows sequence
BoE Gov. Bailey at 10:50 UTC, and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Breakout above 1.3400 cap, higher lows from the Asian low.
Late in the Asia session, the 05:45 UTC bar lifted price out of a 1.3395–1.3399 consolidation (range base) to 1.3406, just shy of the 1.3408 Asian high. That high was set in an earlier 03:00 UTC false break that reversed back under the figure. The 1.3400 prior cap held Wednesday's post-CPI highs five times and now sits as nearest support, with rising support off the 1.3383 Asian low beneath; RSI(14) is 61 and ATR(14) about 5 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3395, 1.3383
Resistance: 1.3408
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3408 Asian high clears the overnight false break and extends the higher-low sequence
Slip back below the 1.3400 prior cap would repeat the 03:00 UTC rejection and put the 1.3395 range base back in play
Loss of rising support and the 1.3383 Asian low breaks the intraday higher-low chain
BoE Gov. Bailey at 10:50 UTC: a dovish read on follow-up hikes could knock GBP back under 1.3400
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are a secondary driver for the USD leg
05:31 UTC
Sideways, capped at 1.3400 · RSI 55 · price 1.33967
Asian range 1.3383–1.3408. Brief break above 1.3400 rejected; price now compressing in a tight band just under the psych level..
Yesterday's CPI-beat dip to the 1.3364 cpi low was fully bought back. An Asia-session push through the 1.3400 psych level stalled at 1.3408, the asian high, and was rejected. Late Asia, ahead of London open, price is coiling at 1.3395–1.3400 near the 50% asian leg fib, holding above the 1.3394 pullback low, with ATR compressed to about 5 pips.
Support: 1.33938, 1.33826, 1.3364
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3408
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3408 asian high turns the rejection into a range break above the 1.3400 psych level.
Failure to hold the 1.3394 pullback low (61.8% of the asian leg fib) exposes the 1.3383 asian low.
BoE Gov. Bailey at 10:50 UTC is the main risk to this read. A dovish tone puts the 1.3364 cpi low back in focus.
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD side during NY hours.
05:16 UTC
Sideways, capped at 1.3400 · RSI 52 · price 1.33955
Range 1.3377–1.3403, false break of range top in Asia.
Late Asia session, ahead of London open. Softer US yields lifted GBPUSD off the 1.3383 asian low to a 1.3408 asian high, but the move failed to hold above 1.3400. Price is back at 1.3396, the 50% retrace of that rally. The range top at 1.3400 has now capped five times since the post-CPI London rally, with the ny low at 1.3377 as the range floor.
Support: 1.33826, 1.33766
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3408
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3408 asian high invalidates the false-break read
Loss of the 1.3383 asian low exposes the 1.3377 ny low and the range floor
London open in under 2h typically resets the Asian range
BoE Bailey at 10:50 UTC could materially shift this read; dovish framing has weighed on GBP near 1.3400
05:01 UTC
Sideways, capped at 1.3400 · RSI 54 · price 1.33965
1.3377–1.3408 range, rising intraday lows.
The Asia session briefly cleared the 1.3400 cap to an asian high at 1.3408 around 03:00 UTC. The poke failed and slipped to a 1.3394 pullback low near the 50% of the asian swing, the fifth rejection at the cap since price rebounded from the post-CPI 1.3364 low. Late Asian trade is now flat around 1.3397 with RSI(14) neutral, and rising lows from the 1.3377 ny low to the 1.3383 asian low still keep the range floor intact ahead of London open.
Support: 1.3394, 1.3383, 1.3377
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3408
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3408 asian high would turn the false break into a breakout from the 1.3400 cap
A break of the 1.3394 pullback low and the 1.3383 asian low snaps the rising lows; the 1.3377 ny low is the range floor
BoE Governor Bailey speaks at 10:50 UTC. A dovish framing fits the rejection at the 1.3400 cap, while a hawkish lean risks a range break higher
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD leg during NY hours
04:46 UTC
Sideways, capped at 1.3400 · RSI 54 · price 1.3397
Range 1.3377–1.3403 since UK CPI; Asian false break above to 1.3408.
Late Asia ahead of London open. The Asian leg lifted from the 1.3383 Asian low through the 1.3402 range top to a 1.3408 Asian high, then faded back inside. This is the same cap that held through four tests after the hot UK CPI print. The pullback low at 1.3394 sits near the 50% retracement of that leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 54 and ATR(14) about 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.3394, 1.3383, 1.3377
Resistance: 1.3402, 1.3408
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3408 Asian high negates the false-break read and clears the range top
Loss of the 1.3394 pullback low exposes the 1.3383 Asian low, then the 1.3377 NY low at the range floor
BoE Gov. Bailey at 10:50 UTC could materially shift this read around the 1.3400 cap
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC are the next USD-side risk
Post-CPI range 1.3377–1.3408; Asia false break above 1.3400.
Late Asia pushed through 1.3400 and the prior high at 1.3403 to an Asian high of 1.3408. Price was rejected back to a 1.3394 pullback low, which sits at the 50–61.8% fib of the Asian leg off the 1.3383 Asian low. The 1.3400 cap that held after Wednesday's hot UK CPI is still in place, RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR is about 6 pips.
Support: 1.33938, 1.33826, 1.33766
Resistance: 1.34029, 1.3408
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3408 Asian high would invalidate the false-break read at 1.3400
Loss of the 1.3394 pullback low exposes the 1.3383 Asian low; a break there undercuts the higher-lows line from the 1.3377 swing low
BoE Gov. Bailey at 10:50 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London open in ~2.5h is the first test of whether the Asian range holds
04:16 UTC
Range, capped at 1.3400 · RSI 54 · price 1.33986
1.3377–1.3403 range; Asian false break above 1.3400 rejected.
Late Asia pushed through the 1.3400 psych cap to an Asian high at 1.3408, but supply returned within three bars and price slipped back under the figure. It now sits on the 38.2% fib of the 1.3383–1.3408 leg, with the 1.3394 swing low beneath. The wider 1.3377–1.3403 range has held since the post-CPI dip, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 1.3394, 1.3383, 1.3377
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3408
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3408 asian high would turn the false break into a breakout
Failure to hold the 1.3394 swing low exposes the 1.3383 asian low, then the 1.3377 ny low
Bailey at 10:50 UTC could materially shift this read; US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC
False break above 1.3400 in Asia, back inside 1.3377–1.3403 range.
Asia briefly cleared the 1.3400 cap and yesterday's 1.3403 prior high to print a 1.3408 asia high, then reversed back to 1.3397. That leaves a false break inside the 1.3377–1.3403 range in place since the CPI-day London session, with the dip holding near the 50% retrace of the asia low-to-high leg. RSI(14) is neutral at 52 and ATR is about 5.5 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 1.33945, 1.33826, 1.33766
Resistance: 1.34029, 1.3408
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3408 asia high would invalidate the false-break read
Loss of the 50% retrace near 1.3395 exposes the 1.3383 asia low
Break of the 1.3377 ny low would end the range on the downside
Bailey speech 10:50 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, fresh breakout in late Asia · RSI 66 · price 1.34057
Broke above the 1.3377–1.3403 range that capped London and NY; higher low at 1.3383.
After Wednesday's CPI spike to 1.3364, GBPUSD spent London and NY in a 1.3377–1.3403 range. Late in the Asia session it rallied off the asian low at 1.3383 and cleared both the asian high at 1.3398 and the 1.3403 prior high, printing a session high at 1.3408 on softer US yields. RSI(14) sits near 66, so it is firm but not stretched.
Support: 1.3403, 1.3398, 1.3383
Resistance: 1.3408
What it said to watch
Holding above the 1.3403 prior high on the first retest keeps the breakout intact; an M15 close back under the 1.3398 asian high would mark a false break
A loss of the 1.3383 asian low breaks the rising line from the NY low and returns price to the prior range
An M15 close above the 1.3408 session high clears the 1.3409 cap noted in the digest
Bailey speech at 10:50 UTC could materially shift this read, given second-hike odds near 48%
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the USD-side risk heading into the NY session
The 38.2–50% retracement of the asia impulse sits at 1.3398–1.3395, overlapping the asian high
Late-Asia break above the 1.3400 cap after a higher low off the Asian low.
Late Asia session cleared the 1.3400 cap that held through Wednesday's post-CPI London and NY trade, with the Asian leg running from the 1.3383 Asian low to a 1.3408 session high on the soft-USD backdrop. The broken cap at 1.3402 is the first test into London open. RSI(14) near 64 is not stretched.
Support: 1.34016, 1.33826, 1.33766
Resistance: 1.34077
What it said to watch
A return below the broken cap at 1.3400 back into the prior range would mark a false break
Clearance of the 1.3408 session high and the 1.3409 September high extends the breakout
Loss of the 1.3383 Asian low, then the 1.3377 swing low, unwinds the Asian leg
Bailey speech at 10:50 UTC on second-hike risk could materially shift this read
03:01 UTC
Sideways, pressing range top · RSI 53 · price 1.33966
1.3377–1.3403 range since CPI; higher low in Asia.
GBPUSD has held a 1.3377–1.3403 range since Wednesday's UK CPI spike. Supply capped the 1.3400 round number repeatedly through London and NY despite the hot print. Late Asia session lifted from the 1.3383 Asian low, a higher low vs the 1.3377 NY low, back to the range top with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 1.33826, 1.33766
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.34029
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3403 prior high breaks the range read
Loss of the 1.3383 Asian low and the higher low line reopens the 1.3377 NY low
Bailey speech at 10:50 UTC could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Range, drifting lower in Asia · RSI 37 · price 1.3385
Lower highs under 1.3403 since London; range floor 1.3377.
Asia has slipped from the Asian high at 1.3398 to a fresh session low at 1.3383. That extends the lower highs under the prior high at 1.3403 that has capped the post-CPI leg since London; RSI(14) is 37 and price sits near the 50% retracement of that leg, with the NY low at 1.3377 as the next floor.
Support: 1.3383, 1.3377, 1.3364
Resistance: 1.3398, 1.3403
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3377 NY low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.3364 CPI low
Recovery above the 1.3398 Asian high negates the lower-highs read; 1.3403 prior high is the range top
Bailey at 10:50 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Range-bound, drifting lower in Asia · RSI 39 · price 1.3385
Lower highs under 1.3400, testing Asian range low.
After the UK CPI beat whipsawed price to the 1.3364 cpi low, rejection at 1.3400–1.3403 capped repeated tests and left lower highs off the day high. Asia has faded from the 1.3398 asian high to the 1.3383 asian low, at the 61.8% retrace of the bounce from the 1.3377 ny swing low, with RSI(14) near 39 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 1.3383, 1.3377, 1.3364
Resistance: 1.3398, 1.3403
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3383 asian low exposes the 1.3377 ny swing low, then the 1.3364 cpi low
M15 close above the 1.3398 asian high breaks the lower highs and brings the 1.3403 day high back into play
Bailey at 10:50 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:01 UTC
Range-bound, Asia leg lower · RSI 39 · price 1.33851
Post-CPI range 1.3377–1.3403, Asia lower highs.
The UK CPI spike off the 1.3364 cpi low built a 1.3377–1.3403 range, and the 1.3400 cap rejected price four times between London and NY. Late in the Asia session, a run of lower highs from the 1.3398 asia high has pushed price into the 1.3383 asia low, which matches the 50% fib of the CPI rally. RSI(14) is near 39 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 1.33833, 1.33766, 1.3364
Resistance: 1.33982, 1.34029
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3383 asia low exposes the 1.3377 ny low and the 61.8% fib near 1.3379
Loss of the 1.3377 ny low reopens the 1.3364 cpi low
Break of the asia lower highs trendline and a close above the 1.3398 asia high returns focus to the 1.3400 cap
Bailey Thu 10:50 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read after London open
Range 1.3377–1.3403 since CPI; tight Asian band inside.
GBP/USD has held a 1.3377–1.3403 range since the hot UK CPI print, and the 1.3400 range top was rejected three times across London and NY. Asia is trading a tight 1.3389–1.3398 band, from the asian low to the asian high. Price sits just under flat EMAs, RSI(14) is near 47 and ATR is about 3 pips, so there is no directional structure in play.
Support: 1.3389, 1.3383, 1.3377
Resistance: 1.3398, 1.3403
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3403 range top breaks the post-CPI ceiling
Loss of the 1.3389 asian low exposes the 1.3383 rollover low, then the 1.3377 ny low and range floor
A break of the ny low would turn the 38.2% retrace of the ny low rebound into a lower-low sequence
London open at 07:00 UTC likely resolves the Asian band
Bailey speaks Thu 10:50 UTC and could materially shift this read
Post-CPI range 1.3377–1.3403, Asia inside 1.3387–1.3398.
The hot UK CPI print set the 1.3364 cpi low at 06:00 UTC before London lifted the pair into a 1.3377–1.3403 range. Supply capped the range top three times through London and NY. The NY low at 1.3377 held near the 61.8% of the CPI rally fib. Asia is inside a narrow 1.3387–1.3398 range with RSI(14) near 53, and price is sitting on its EMAs.
Support: 1.3387, 1.3377, 1.3364
Resistance: 1.3398, 1.3403
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3403 range top breaks the post-CPI range
Loss of the 1.3387 asian low exposes the 1.3377 ny low and the 61.8% of the CPI rally fib
Failure to hold 1.3377 reopens the 1.3364 cpi low
Bailey speaks Thu 10:50 UTC and US jobless claims print at 12:30 UTC; either could materially shift this read
Range 1.3377–1.3403 since London, Asia coiling mid-range.
The hot UK CPI print lifted GBPUSD off the 1.3364 cpi low. Since then it has been held in a 1.3377–1.3403 range, with the range top at 1.3400 rejected three times across London and NY. Mid-Asia it is coiling in a 1.3389–1.3398 band (asian low to asian high), RSI(14) neutral near 56 and ATR(14) contracting to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.3389, 1.3377, 1.3364
Resistance: 1.3398, 1.3403
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3403 range top breaks the three-test cap at 1.3400
Loss of the 1.3389 asian low exposes the 1.3377 range low; failure there reopens the 1.3364 cpi low
A break of the 1.3398 asian high during London open would test the range top early
BoE Governor Bailey Thu 10:50 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Range-bound, mild upward drift in Asia · RSI 58 · price 1.33965
1.3377–1.3403 range since London; rising lows off NY low.
Hot UK CPI whipsawed price to a 1.3364 CPI low before London broke above the pre-CPI Asian range. Since then the 1.3400–1.3403 day high has rejected four times, while the NY low at 1.3377 held near the 61.8% of the CPI leg fib. Early Asia session shows rising lows lifting price into the 1.3398 Asian high, with RSI(14) neutral near 58 and ATR(14) compressed to about 4 pips.
Support: 1.3387, 1.3377, 1.3364
Resistance: 1.3398, 1.3403
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3403 day high would break the repeated 1.3400 rejection and the range top
A break below the 1.3387 Asian low and the rising lows line puts the 1.3377 NY low back in play
Losing the 1.3377 NY low (61.8% of the CPI leg fib) exposes the 1.3364 CPI low
Bailey (Thu 10:50 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
1.3377–1.3403 range since London, higher lows into Asia.
Hot UK CPI at 06:00 UTC lifted cable out of the 1.3370s, but the London high at 1.3403 has been the range top, rejected three times through NY as the hike stays priced. NY dips held at the 1.3377 ny low and the thin rollover low at 1.3383 left higher lows. Early Asia sits at 1.3396 just under the range top, RSI(14) ~55, ATR ~4 pips.
Support: 1.33833, 1.33766
Resistance: 1.34029
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3403 range top breaks the range and the 1.3400 cap
Close below the 1.3383 rollover low ends the higher-low sequence and puts the 1.3377 ny low in play
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Bailey Thu 10:50 UTC could materially shift this read
1.3377–1.3403 range since London open, three rejections at the 1.3400 area.
The 06:00 UTC UK CPI beat whipsawed price to the 1.3364 cpi low before London lifted it into 1.3400. Since then it has held a 1.3377–1.3403 range, with the range top rejected three times and dips holding at the cpi leg fib 61.8% near the range low. Early Asia session is quiet at 1.3396, pressing the late ny high, with ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 1.33833, 1.33766, 1.3364
Resistance: 1.3397, 1.34029
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.34029 range top breaks the range; the 1.3400 cap has held since London open
Loss of the 1.33833 rollover low (cpi leg fib 50%) puts the 1.33766 range low back in play
A break below the range low exposes the 1.3364 cpi low
Bailey Thu 10:50 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read