GBP/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 23 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the GBP/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:46 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalled into Friday close · RSI 50 · price 1.33689
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high; late-NY consolidation above the day low.
GBP/USD has printed lower highs all session from the 1.3407 Asian high. The UK PMI pop and the US-data spikes were both capped at the 1.3388 lower highs, and firm US PMIs pushed NY to a 1.3361 day low. The late-NY bounce faded at the 1.3374 late NY high, the 50% retrace of the 1.3388–1.3361 leg, and price is drifting in a thin 1.3361–1.3374 band into the Friday close.
Support: 1.33608, 1.3330
Resistance: 1.3374, 1.3388, 1.34072
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3374 late NY high breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaiming 1.3388, where lower highs capped twice, needed to neutralise the downtrend; the 1.3407 Asian high sits above
Loss of the 1.3361 day low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.3330 uob support
Thin end-of-week liquidity; the Fed decision and UK Autumn Forecast Statement on Oct 28 are the next drivers that could materially shift this read
Asian range low broken in London, lower highs below 1.3388 range top.
London broke the Asian low at 1.3385 after the UK retail sales miss. Strong US PMIs then lifted the dollar, and NY pressed to a 1.3361 session low after three rejections near the 1.3388 range top. The late-NY bounce stalled at the fib 50% of the 1.3388–1.3361 leg (1.3374), extending the lower highs, and price is now drifting near 1.3370 with RSI(14) flat at 50.
Support: 1.33646, 1.33608
Resistance: 1.33742, 1.33851, 1.33883
What it said to watch
Close back above the fib 50% at 1.3374 puts the old asian low at 1.3385 back in play
Failure to hold the midday low at 1.3365 exposes the 1.3361 session low again
Friday late NY: thin liquidity and weekend Middle East headlines raise gap risk into the Monday open
Fed decision and UK Autumn Forecast Statement, both Wed Oct 28, are the next event risks for this structure
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, flattening into Friday close · RSI 48 · price 1.33717
Asian range broken lower; NY lower low at 1.3361, now a tight late-session range.
The Asian range (asia high 1.3407) gave way at London open after the UK retail sales miss. During NY hours the hot US PMIs revived the dollar, and two rallies met rejection at the ny highs near 1.3388, close to the 61.8% fib of the asia high–session low drop. Price set a session low at 1.3361 below the 1.3365 ny lows and is now compressing in a 5-pip band under the 1.3374 late cap into the weekly close.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3361
Resistance: 1.3374, 1.3388, 1.3407
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3374 late cap opens a retest of 1.3388 ny highs
Failure to hold 1.3365 ny lows exposes the 1.3361 session low
Thin liquidity into Friday close; Middle East headlines over the weekend could gap the Monday Asia open
20:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling into Friday close · RSI 52 · price 1.33723
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high; tight late-NY consolidation.
Lower highs since the 1.3407 asian high: London broke the Asian range low, NY capped twice at 1.3388 (ny cap) as strong US PMIs lifted USD, and the session low printed at 1.3361 late NY. Price is now compressing between the 1.3365 swing low and the 1.3374 bounce high into the Friday close, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and ATR(14) under 5 pips.
Support: 1.33646, 1.33608
Resistance: 1.3374, 1.3388, 1.34072
What it said to watch
A close above the 1.3374 bounce high brings the 38.2% fib (~1.3379) and the falling trendline near 1.3380 into play
A break below the 1.3365 swing low and the 1.3361 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the 1.3388 ny cap breaks the lower-high chain back toward the 1.3407 asian high
Thin Friday liquidity; next scheduled risk is Tuesday US Durable Goods, then Wednesday's UK Autumn Forecast Statement and Fed decision
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high; tight consolidation above the day low.
London broke the Asian low near 1.3385. The UK PMI beat spike faded, and NY highs capped at 1.3388 twice before firm US PMIs extended the slide to a 1.3361 day low. Since London close, price has been consolidating in thin late-NY trade, with the bounce high at 1.3374 sitting on the 50% retracement of the last leg.
Support: 1.3361, 1.33646
Resistance: 1.3374, 1.33883, 1.3400
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3374 bounce high (50% fib) shifts focus to the 1.3388 NY high, with the 1.3400 psych level beyond
A break of the 1.3361 day low extends the lower-low chain; the 1.3365 london low is the first marker
Friday close and Monday reopen bring thin liquidity and gap risk into the 28 Oct UK fiscal statement and Fed decision
Lower highs since Asia; NY range 1.3361–1.3388 with a fresh session low.
London broke below the Asian range, and strong US PMIs kept GBPUSD heavy despite the UK PMI beat. NY capped rallies twice at the ny high near 1.3388 before printing a session low at 1.3361 after London close. The late-NY bounce is stalling at the fib 50 near 1.3374 with the fib 38.2 at 1.3371 just below, RSI(14) neutral near 50 and ATR(14) about 5 pips.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3361
Resistance: 1.3374, 1.3388, 1.3407
What it said to watch
Close back below the fib 38.2 at 1.3371 puts the 1.3361 session low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the fib 50 at 1.3374 opens a retest of the ny high at 1.3388, the top of the NY range
Asian high at 1.3407 caps the day; only a reclaim of it alters the intraday downtrend read
Thin late-Friday liquidity and weekend headline risk (Middle East, Fed positioning into Wed decision) could gap the open
Lower highs at 1.3388 and 1.3375, lower lows down to 1.3361.
London broke below the Asian low near 1.3385 as strong US PMIs firmed the USD, outweighing the UK PMI beat. Two NY rallies were rejected at that former Asian low near 1.3388, and the late leg printed a session low at 1.3361. Late on Friday in the NY session, price is flat near 1.3371 at the 38.2% retrace, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) at 45 and ATR(14) about 5 pips.
Support: 1.33646, 1.33608
Resistance: 1.33748, 1.33883
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3375 swing high (50% retrace) breaks the lower-high sequence
A break of the 1.3365 prior low and the 1.3361 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.3330 support
Thin late-Friday liquidity; weekend Middle East headlines carry gap risk into the Monday open
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high; minor bounce off the session low.
Cable has carved lower highs since the Asian high at 1.3407. Supply formed a triple cap at 1.3388 across the UK PMI print, midday, and the post-US PMI rally, and the late-NY fade set a session low at 1.3361 as the strong US PMIs outweighed the UK PMI beat. Price is now pausing at the 38.2% retrace near 1.3371, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3361
Resistance: 1.3375, 1.3388
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3375 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 1.3388 triple cap back into view
Failure to hold the 1.3365 prior low and the 1.3361 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 1.3330 support
Friday late-NY liquidity is thin into the weekly close; no scheduled GBP or USD data in the next 8h
18:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalling late NY · RSI 42 · price 1.33709
Asian range broken lower at London open; NY ranging 1.3361–1.3388 with marginal new low.
London broke below the 1.3385–1.3407 Asian range, and the UK PMI spike to 1.3387 faded as firm US PMIs lifted USD. NY has ranged since, with ny highs capping twice near 1.3388 and ny lows near 1.3365 giving way to a session low at 1.3361. Late Friday price sits at 1.3371, flat on EMA20 just under the 23.6% of the asian high–low fib, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.33646, 1.33608
Resistance: 1.33883, 1.34072
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3361 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Close back above the 1.3388 ny highs reclaims the Asian low and the 50% of the asian high–low fib, which invalidates the NY range read
Asian high at 1.3407 is the day's upper boundary
Thin late-Friday liquidity; weekend Middle East headlines are the main gap risk into the Monday open
Lower-high/lower-low chain from the 1.3388 NY high, small bounce off the session low.
London broke below the Asian range at the open. The US PMI beat then produced a second rejection at the 1.3388 NY high, and the drop that followed set a session low at 1.3361 during NY hours. Late-Friday bounce is stalling at the 1.3370 lower high near the 38.2% retrace, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 1.33608, 1.3330
Resistance: 1.3370, 1.33748, 1.3388
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3375 fib 50% and the lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3361 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.3330 uob support
Thin late-Friday liquidity; Middle East headlines over the weekend could gap the open
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 40 · price 1.33683
Lower highs under 1.3388, marginal lower low at 1.3361 late NY.
London opened with a break below the Asian low at 1.3393. Since then price has printed lower highs capped at the 1.3388 range top, and the firm US PMI beat pushed price to a fresh session low at 1.3361 late in NY. The bounce off that low is stalling near 1.3370, below the 1.3375 lower high, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR running about 6 pips.
Support: 1.33608, 1.3330
Resistance: 1.33748, 1.33883, 1.33929
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3375 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 1.3388 range top
Failure to hold the 1.3361 session low extends the lower-low sequence, with 1.3330 key support the next marker
Reclaiming the 1.3393 Asian low would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
Thin late-Friday NY trade; Tue US durables and Wed FOMC / UK fiscal statement are the next scheduled catalysts
Broke below the London-NY range floor late in NY; consolidating near the session low.
Strong US PMIs lifted the dollar, and the pair failed twice at the 1.3388 NY high. It then broke below the 1.3365 range floor after London close and printed a session low at 1.3361. A lower high at 1.3375 defines the descending trendline, and RSI(14) near 40 is not stretched.
Support: 1.3361, 1.3330
Resistance: 1.3365, 1.3375, 1.3388
What it said to watch
A recovery back above the 1.3365 range floor would turn the break into a false break
An M15 close above the 1.3375 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 1.3361 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 1.3330 uob support
Friday late-NY liquidity and weekend gap risk apply; the UK fiscal statement and the Fed on Wed 28 Oct are the next major drivers
17:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 1.33646
Lower-high chain from 1.3407; London-NY range floor 1.3365 slipped late NY.
Lower highs since the 1.3407 Asian high. The UK PMI beat spike to the 1.3388 range top faded as strong US PMIs lifted USD. After London close, price slipped under the 1.3365 London-NY floor to a 1.3361 session low, with RSI(14) near 40 and not stretched.
Support: 1.33608, 1.3333
Resistance: 1.33748, 1.3388, 1.34072
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.3365 would turn the session low break into a false break
Recovery through the 1.3375 lower high and 38.2% of the day's decline (~1.3379) breaks the lower-high chain; range top 1.3388 sits above
Extension below the 1.3361 session low opens 1.3330 uob support, flagged as the line for the rebound
Late-Friday NY hours; next scheduled risk is Tue US Durable Goods, then FOMC and the UK fiscal statement Wed
17:31 UTC
Downtrend, fresh session low late NY · RSI 36 · price 1.33619
Lower highs and lower lows; NY range 1.3365–1.3388 broken lower.
Late in the NY session GBP/USD broke below the 1.3365 NY low and printed a fresh session low at 1.3362. Firm US PMIs lifted USD, and the UK PMI beat could not reclaim the 1.3407 Asian high. Lower highs at the 1.3388 NY high and the 1.3375 lower high keep capping, and RSI(14) at 36 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 1.33618, 1.3350, 1.3330
Resistance: 1.33748, 1.33883, 1.34072
What it said to watch
A close back above the 1.3375 lower high negates the latest leg down; the 1.3388 NY high caps the NY range above that
Failure to hold the 1.3350 round number exposes the 1.3330 UOB support flagged in the GBP digest
Thin late-Friday liquidity and weekend Middle East headlines could gap the open; the Wed 28 Oct Autumn Statement and FOMC are the next scheduled drivers
17:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, flattening into a range · RSI 45 · price 1.33687
Lower highs from the Asian high; 1.3365–1.3388 range since London.
London broke below the 1.3385–1.3407 Asian range, and price has held a 1.3365–1.3388 range since. The UK PMI spike and two NY rallies met rejection at the range top, near the 50–61.8% retracement of the day's decline and under the lower highs line, as strong US PMIs kept USD firm. Late NY, price sits back on the session low, tested three times, with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 1.33646, 1.3330
Resistance: 1.33883, 1.34072
What it said to watch
A close below the 1.3365 session low breaks the range floor and exposes the UOB support at 1.3330
A close above the 1.3388 range top and the lower highs line reopens the 1.3407 Asian high
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekend; Wed FOMC and UK Autumn Statement are the next scheduled catalysts
17:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalled into range · RSI 50 · price 1.33738
1.3365–1.3388 range below the broken Asian range low.
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.3385. Since then price has boxed between the 1.3365 session low and the 1.3388 range top, which has rejected three times and sits near the 50% retrace of the Asian high to session low drop. Firm US PMIs and sentiment kept GBP capped despite the UK PMI beat. RSI(14) is flat near 50 after London close on Friday.
Support: 1.33646
Resistance: 1.33883, 1.34072
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3365 session low breaks the range floor and resumes the lower-low sequence from the Asian high
M15 close above the 1.3388 range top reopens the 1.3407 Asian high
Thin late-Friday liquidity; no scheduled GBP/USD data until Tuesday's US Durable Goods
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, range-bound since London · RSI 40 · price 1.33696
Asian range broken lower at London open; 1.3365–1.3388 range since, price on the range floor late NY.
London broke below the Asian range, and the UK PMI-beat spike to 1.3387 faded on broad USD strength. Since then price has held a 1.3365–1.3388 range: the range top has rejected three times and the session low has been tested three times. Late NY trade sits on that floor, below the ema20 near 1.3376, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.33646, 1.3360
Resistance: 1.3376, 1.33883, 1.34072
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3365 session low exposes the 1.3360 range floor
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.3376 and a close above the 1.3388 range top would neutralise the intraday decline, with the 1.3407 asian high next
Thin late-Friday liquidity; next week's UK fiscal statement and FOMC (Wed 28 Oct) are the scheduled catalysts
16:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY session ranging near lows · RSI 40 · price 1.33697
Lower highs from Asia high; NY range 1.3365–1.3388 with price back at the floor.
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.3385 and extended to a 1.3365 day low despite the UK PMI beats, with broad USD strength doing the work. NY highs failed twice near 1.3388, at the fib 50% of the Asia high-to-day low drop and under the falling trendline. Price is back at the range floor after London close, RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.33646, 1.3360
Resistance: 1.33883, 1.34072
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3365 day low resumes the lower-low sequence and exposes the 1.3360 round number
Close above the 1.3388 ny high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain, opening the 1.3407 asia high
No scheduled UK/US data in the next 8h; thin late-Friday liquidity leaves Iran/Middle East headlines as the main USD swing factor
16:16 UTC
Downtrend from Asian high, now ranging · RSI 47 · price 1.33736
Lower highs off 1.3407, NY range 1.3366–1.3388.
GBP/USD broke below the Asian range at 1.3385 into London open and printed a day low at 1.3365 as broad USD strength outweighed the UK PMI beat. NY has rotated inside 1.3366–1.3388, with the session high rejected twice after the firm US PMI and UoM prints. Price sits on the 61.8% retrace of the NY bounce, just above the ny low at 1.3371, late on Friday after the London close.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3365
Resistance: 1.3388, 1.3407
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3388 session high breaks the NY range and exposes the 1.3407 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.3365 day low extends the lower-low sequence from the Asian high
Repeated holds at the 1.3371 ny low keep the post-London range intact into the Friday close
16:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend stalled into a range · RSI 52 · price 1.33762
Range 1.3365–1.3388 since London, lower highs from the Asian high.
Cable bled from the 1.3407 Asian high to a 1.3365 day low before 11:00 UTC on broad USD strength. The UK PMI beat did not lift it, and the 1.3365 low held a NY retest. Since then the range top at 1.3388 has rejected three times, including after the US PMI and UoM beats, and price sits mid-range at EMA20 (RSI 52) late in NY with London closing.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3365
Resistance: 1.3388, 1.3407
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3388 range top invalidates the range read and puts the 1.3407 Asian high back in view
Loss of the 1.3371 ny low exposes the 1.3365 day low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Friday post-London liquidity thins with no scheduled data in the next 8h, so range edges may see false breaks
15:45 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling into a range · RSI 53 · price 1.33748
Lower highs from the Asia high; NY range 1.3365–1.3388.
The London open broke below the Asian range, and the selling extended to a day low at 1.3365 by 12:00 UTC. USD stayed bid on the US PMI and Michigan beats, while the UK PMI beat failed to lift GBP. NY hours have since held a 1.3365–1.3388 range, with three rejections at the range top. Price sits mid-range near the london low at 1.3371, with flat EMAs overhead.
Support: 1.33706, 1.33646
Resistance: 1.33883, 1.34072
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3388 range top invalidates the range read and puts the 1.3407 asia high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.3365 day low resumes the lower-low sequence
Friday late-NY liquidity thinning into the weekend close; FOMC and the UK Autumn Forecast Statement on Wed Oct 28 are the next major risks
15:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend stalling into a range · RSI 55 · price 1.33794
Lower highs from London open; 1.3365-1.3388 range with rising lows since midday.
Cable broke the Asian low near 1.3388 at London open on broad USD strength and printed a 1.3365 session low by midday, with the UK PMI beat doing little to lift it. Since then the old Asian low has capped three rallies, most recently after the US PMI and Michigan prints. Rising lows from 1.3365 are compressing price into a narrowing range as London closes, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 1.3372, 1.3365
Resistance: 1.3388, 1.3407
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3388 Asian low reclaims the broken range and opens the path to the 1.3407 Asian high
A loss of the rising lows near 1.3372 puts the 1.3365 session low back in focus; a break below it extends the London lower-low sequence
Post-London-close Friday liquidity is thinning; the next scheduled risks are the UK Autumn Forecast Statement and the FOMC, both on Wed
Session range 1.3365–1.3388 below the Asian range, double bottom at lows.
London broke below the Asian range (1.3391–1.3407) and set a session low at 1.3365 by midday. The UK PMI beat lifted price only briefly, and broad USD firmness on strong US PMI and Michigan data kept it heavy. NY printed a double bottom at 1.3365–1.3366 and has bounced from the ny swing low near 1.3371 into the 1.3388 session cap, which is also the 50% retrace of the Asian-high-to-session-low leg. RSI(14) is near 60.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3365
Resistance: 1.3388, 1.3391, 1.3407
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3388 session cap and the 1.3391 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and opens 1.3407 asian high
A third rejection at 1.3388 keeps the 1.3365–1.3388 session range intact into the London close
A break of the 1.3371 ny swing low and then the 1.3365 session low invalidates the double bottom and resumes the London downtrend
No scheduled GBP/USD events in the next 8h; thin late-Friday NY trade can stretch moves beyond the ~7-pip ATR
15:01 UTC
Downtrend off the Asian high, basing above the session low · RSI 56 · price 1.33801
Lower highs since the Asian high; NY session holding a 1.3365–1.3388 range.
London open broke the Asian range lower after soft UK retail sales. The PMI beat only produced a brief pop that faded, and a broad USD bid on firm US PMI/Michigan data drove the session low to 1.3365. NY session has since held a 1.3365–1.3388 range: the 1.3388 lower high was rejected, the session low has been defended twice, and price is now pressing the 38.2% retrace of the Asian high-to-session low drop near 1.3381.
Support: 1.33646, 1.33616
Resistance: 1.33883, 1.3400, 1.34072
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3388 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.3400 round number and 1.3407 Asian high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.3365 session low exposes yday low at 1.3362 and resumes the downtrend
Late-Friday NY hours: thinning liquidity into the weekly close can produce erratic prints around the range edges
14:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend stalling into a range · RSI 52 · price 1.33767
London break below Asian range, NY ranging 1.3365–1.3388.
London open broke below the Asian range and pushed to a 1.3365 session low, with broad USD strength capping GBP despite the UK PMI beat. Early NY has been contained between the 1.3371 london low area and the 1.3388 range top, where the bounce met rejection near the 50% retrace of the asian high to session low fib. RSI(14) near 52 and ATR around 7 pips point to a compressed range with no directional pressure.
Support: 1.33706, 1.33646
Resistance: 1.33883, 1.34072
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3388 range top opens the path back toward the 1.3407 asian high
Break of the 1.3365 session low resumes the London lower-low sequence
Repeated tests of the 1.3371 london low in NY; failure there exposes the session low
Iran and Middle East headlines driving USD haven demand into the Friday close could shift this read
14:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 1.33678
Broke below Asian range at London open; LH/LL chain intact.
London opened with a range break below the 1.3385–1.3407 Asian range. The UK PMI beat only produced a brief spike before USD strength on Iran tensions reasserted. The 12:45 UTC bounce stalled at the 1.3388 lower high, around 56% of the Asian high to session low drop, and price is back near the 1.3365 session low in the first hours of NY.
Support: 1.33646, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.33883, 1.34072
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3365 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3355 yday low
Recovery above the 1.3388 lower high and back into the Asian range invalidates the downtrend read
Fresh US flash PMIs and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 44 · price 1.3373
London broke below the Asian range; lower-high, lower-low chain with NY-open spike rejected.
London broke below the Asian range and kept printing lower highs despite the UK PMI beat, with broad USD demand capping rallies. The early NY spike to the 1.3388 spike high stalled between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the asian high-to-low leg and has faded back toward 1.3373, just above the 1.3365 session low.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3388, 1.3407
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 1.3365 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3355 prior low
Reclaim of the 1.3388 spike high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.3407 asian high back in view
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; bounce from session low testing ema20.
London broke below the Asian range low near 1.3387. The UK PMI-beat spike was rejected at that level. Price then printed a lower high at 1.3385 and a session low at 1.3365 on the broad USD bid. Early NY has bounced to about halfway up the drop, with price sitting just under the ema20 near 1.3376 and RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3376, 1.3385, 1.3394
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3385 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 1.3394 swing high
Failure to hold the 1.3365 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward yesterday's 1.3355 prior low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range.
London broke below the Asian range (1.3407–1.3385). Since then the pair has capped at the 1.3387 London high and again at 1.3385, slipping to a 1.3365 session low. That low is now getting a modest bounce to roughly 44% of the drop from 1.3385, with RSI(14) neutral near 47. The UK PMI beat failed to offset the retail sales miss against broad USD demand.
Support: 1.33646, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.33873, 1.34072
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 1.3387 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3365 session low exposes the 1.3355 thursday low
Reclaiming the old Asian range opens the path back toward the 1.3407 asian high
12:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 31 · price 1.3366
Asian range broken lower; LH/LL chain through London into early NY.
London broke below the Asian range, and the UK PMI-beat spike to the 1.3387 pmi high was rejected. Lower highs have since pressed price through the 1.3371 london low to a fresh session low at 1.3365, with RSI(14) near 31 and broad USD demand capping GBP despite the data. Thursday's prior-day low at 1.3355 is the next reference.
Support: 1.33646, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.33706, 1.33873
What it said to watch
Break of the 1.3355 prior-day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3330 area flagged in the digest
Reclaim of the 1.3371 london low, then a close above the lower highs trendline near 1.3385, invalidates the intraday downtrend read
US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) and UoM sentiment (14:00 UTC) during the first hour of NY could materially shift this read
Retracement of the Asian high to session low move: the 38.2% fib near 1.3381 sits just under the pmi high
12:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 30 · price 1.33692
Lower-high chain off the Asian high, London range broken to the downside.
GBP/USD has printed lower highs from the 1.3407 Asian high. A descending trendline capped the 06:15 and 08:15 UTC bounces and the 1.3385 lower high. Late London slipped under the 1.3371 London low to a 1.3367 session low, as the UK retail sales miss and broad USD strength outweighed the PMI beat. RSI(14) sits near 30 into the London-NY transition, and the prior low at 1.3355 is the next reference below.
Support: 1.33667, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.33706, 1.3385, 1.34072
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 1.3371 London low negates the range break
A reclaim of the 1.3385 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 1.3367 session low exposes yesterday's 1.3355 prior low
RSI(14) pushing below 20 would mark a stretched move
12:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 37 · price 1.33722
Asian range broken lower in London, lower-high chain intact.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.3385 after the weak UK retail sales print and has made lower highs since. The PMI-beat spike to 1.3387 was rejected within the bar, matching the digest's read that upside UK data now does little for GBP. Late London has price pressing the 1.3369 session low, with RSI(14) near 37 and neither stretched nor diverging.
Support: 1.33687, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.3385, 1.33942
What it said to watch
A close back above 1.3385 (Asian low, near the 50% fib retracement) plus the lower-highs trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3369 session low exposes Thursday's 1.3355 prior low
A recovery through the 1.3394 swing high would negate the London downtrend read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read in early NY
Asian range broken lower in London; lower highs capping at 1.3385.
London broke below the Asian low at 1.3385 and set a 1.3371 London low. The bounce faded from 1.3387 as cable slipped despite the UK PMI beat, leaving lower highs near 1.3385. Price is pressing the London low again with RSI(14) at 36 and ATR near 5.5 pips.
Support: 1.33706, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.3385, 1.34072
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3371 London low extends the lower-low chain toward Thursday's 1.3355 prior low
Reclaim of 1.3385, the old Asian low and the lower-high trendline, would negate the range-break read
Full retracement toward the 1.3407 Asian high would erase London's leg down
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London open broke below the Asian range and set a session low at 1.3371. The bounce on the UK PMI beat stalled at the 1.3387 pmi high, and a run of lower highs has since pushed price back onto the session low, consistent with the digest's read that strong UK data is already priced. RSI(14) is near 41 and ATR around 6 pips, so the moves are compressing.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3387, 1.3407
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3371 session low opens Thursday's low (thu low) at 1.3355
Recovery above the 1.3387 pmi high breaks the lower-high sequence; 1.3407 asian high is the next reference
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in London · RSI 51 · price 1.33789
Asian range broken lower; tight 1.3371–1.3387 box since.
Cable topped twice near the 1.3407 Asian high, then broke below the Asian range at London open to a 1.3371 London low. The strong UK PMI beat produced only a spike to 1.3387 that faded, a pmi high sitting at about 70% of the London drop. Price is now boxed at 1.3375–1.3385, flat around EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 1.33706, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.33873, 1.34072
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3387 pmi high reclaims the old Asian range and points back toward the 1.3407 asian high
Failure to hold the 1.3371 london low exposes Thursday's 1.3355 prior low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break the box during the first hours of NY
Asian range low broken in London, lower highs vs higher lows since.
London open broke the Asian range low near 1.3385 and printed a london low at 1.3371. The UK PMI beat spiked price to a 1.3387 pmi high that was rejected, and the pair is now compressing between those two levels. RSI(14) is neutral near 45, with price below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 1.33706, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.33873, 1.34072
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3387 pmi high returns price to the Asian range and puts the 1.3407 asia high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.3371 london low exposes yesterday's prior low at 1.3355
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could break the compression
London broke below Asian range low; higher low at 1.3374, capped under 1.3383–1.3387.
London opened with a range break below the Asian low near 1.3385, printing a session low at 1.3371 and then a higher low at 1.3374. The UK PMI beat spiked price to 1.3387 but the move faded. Price now sits on EMA20 near 1.3382, just under the old Asian low and the 38.2% retrace of the Asian high to session low drop, with RSI(14) flat at 50 and a USD haven bid limiting follow-through.
Support: 1.33736, 1.33706, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.33873, 1.34072
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3387 pmi high reclaims the Asian range and voids the range break read, putting the 1.3407 asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3374 higher low exposes the 1.3371 session low, then the 1.3355 prior low from yesterday's NY session
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 1.3407 Asian high; London range 1.3371–1.3387 with a higher low.
London opened with a range break below the Asian low, printing a 1.3371 session low. The UK PMI beat produced only a spike to the 1.3387 pmi high, which was rejected between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the drop from the 1.3407 Asian high. Price sits just under EMA20 near 1.3381 with RSI(14) at 42, holding a higher low at 1.3374 beneath descending resistance as USD demand caps sterling despite the data.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3387, 1.3407
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 1.3387 pmi high breaks descending resistance and the lower-high sequence, reopening the 1.3407 Asian high
Loss of the 1.3371 session low negates the higher low and exposes yesterday's 1.3355 prior low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Michigan sentiment/inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; 1.3371–1.3387 sub-range below EMA20.
London broke below the Asian range low near 1.3385 and printed a london low at 1.3371. The UK PMI beat lifted cable to the 1.3387 pmi high, but the spike was rejected at the broken Asian low and faded, extending the lower highs from the 1.3407 asian high. Price is chopping 1.3371–1.3387 mid-London, below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3387, 1.3407
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3387 pmi high puts price back inside the Asian range and breaks the lower highs
Failure to hold the 1.3371 london low opens the prior low at 1.3355
Reclaim of the 1.3407 asian high would negate the session breakdown
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could reset the NY session range
09:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 36 · price 1.33756
Asian range broken lower; PMI bounce capped at lower high.
Early London broke below the 1.3385 Asian low into a 1.3371 london low. The UK PMI beat lifted price to a 1.3387 pmi high, a 70.8% retrace of the London leg, before it faded back to the session lows. That leaves a second lower high under the descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3387, 1.3407
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3387 pmi high and the descending trendline negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3371 london low exposes the 1.3355 ny low from yesterday
1.3407 asian high remains the range top if the Asian range is reclaimed
US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
09:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 42 · price 1.33801
Asian range low broken in London, retest from below capped.
Early London broke the Asian low near 1.3387 and slid to a london low at 1.3371. The UK PMI beat at 08:30 UTC spiked price back to that asian low, where it stalled under the descending line from the asian high. Price trades below both EMAs, RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3387, 1.3394, 1.3407
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 1.3387 asian low negates the range break and brings the 1.3394 london high into play
Failure to hold the 1.3371 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 1.3355 prior low from Thursday's NY session
A close above the descending line from the 1.3407 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London break below the Asian low, double bottom at 1.3371, retesting broken low.
London open broke the Asian low at 1.3387 and ran to the 1.3371 london low. Buyers held that level twice in a small double bottom, and the bounce into the UK flash PMI release has price retesting 1.3387 between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the Asian-session decline. Price is just above EMA20 and below EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and ATR around 5 pips.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3387, 1.3407
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 1.3387 asian low turns the London move into a false break and exposes the 1.3407 asian high
Rejection at 1.3387 followed by a break of the 1.3371 london low reopens Thursday's 1.3355 prior low
The UK flash PMI reaction is still in progress; a sub-50 composite would test sterling's CPI-driven firmness
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
Lower highs from 1.3407 Asian high; Asian range low broken at London open, retest from below.
Asia drifted lower in a lower-high sequence off the 1.3407 Asian high. London open then broke the 1.3385 Asian low and printed a 1.3371 session low before recovering. Price is now retesting the Asian low from beneath, just under the descending trendline near 1.3390, with UK flash PMIs due at 08:30 UTC after sterling shrugged off this morning's weak retail sales.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3385, 1.3407
What it said to watch
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC (f/c 51.8) could materially shift this read in the current bar
M15 close back above the 1.3385 Asian low and the descending trendline near 1.3390 returns price to the Asian range
Failure to hold the 1.3371 session low exposes yesterday's low at 1.3355
Recovery through the 1.3407 Asian high would break the lower-high sequence
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled catalyst
Lower highs from the Asia high; London open broke below the Asian range low.
London open broke the 1.3385 Asian low after the UK retail sales miss and extended to a 1.3371 session low. Price has stalled just above it with RSI(14) near 30. The lower-high trendline from the 1.3407 Asia high caps price near 1.3390, and the 1.3355 prior low sits below.
Support: 1.33706, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.33851, 1.34072
What it said to watch
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC (Services f/c 51.8) could materially shift this read within the next bar or two
Failure to hold the 1.3371 session low exposes the 1.3355 prior low from Thursday's NY session
M15 close back above the 1.3385 asian low and the lower-high trendline (~1.3390, near the 50% fib) negates the range break
A move through the 1.3407 asia high breaks the lower-high sequence
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC are the next USD-side risk
08:01 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asian high · RSI 24 · price 1.33727
Asian range broken to the downside at London open; trading at session low.
Sterling barely moved on the 06:00 UTC retail sales miss. Selling arrived at London open, breaking the Asian low at 1.3385 and extending to a 1.3371 session low beneath a lower-high trendline from the 1.3407 Asian high. RSI(14) near 24 with price sitting at Thursday's 1.3372 dip area.
Support: 1.33706, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.33851, 1.34072, 1.34188
What it said to watch
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC: a sub-51 services print would be a third soft UK release in 24h, while a beat could test the broken asian low at 1.3385
An M15 close back above the 1.3385 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3371 session low exposes Thursday's prior low at 1.3355
The lower-high trendline stays intact below the 1.3407 asian high; the 1.3419 prior high marks the top of the 24h range
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could reshape the NY session
Lower highs through Asia, Asian range broken lower at London open.
Asia printed a run of descending highs off the 1.3407 Asian high. London open then broke the 1.3385 Asian low and ran to a 1.3371 session low as sterling softened after the retail sales miss, leaving RSI(14) near 23. Yesterday's 1.3361 swing low and the 1.3355 prior low sit just beneath.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3361, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3385, 1.3391, 1.3407
What it said to watch
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read. Services below 51.8 would put the 1.3361 swing low and 1.3355 prior low in play.
A reclaim of the 1.3385 Asian low, the 38.2% retrace of the drop from the Asian high, would put the range break in question.
A close back above the desc highs line near 1.3391 would break the Asian lower-high sequence. A close above the 1.3407 Asian high would neutralise the down-leg.
Holding below the 1.3371 session low while RSI stays sub-25 confirms the extension. US PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the next risk.
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 26 · price 1.33751
Asian range broken lower at London open, lower-high chain intact.
London open extended the overnight drift lower through the GfK and retail sales misses, breaking the 1.3381 asian low and printing a session low at 1.3375, right at the fib 61.8% of yesterday's 1.3355–1.3407 rally. A falling trendline from the 1.3407 asian high caps the sequence of lower highs. RSI(14) at 26 is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 1.3361, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3381, 1.3394, 1.3407
What it said to watch
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A reclaim of the 1.3381 asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3361 swing low exposes yesterday's 1.3355 prior low
An M15 close above the falling trendline and the 1.3394 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the next USD-side risk
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, price at Asian low into London open.
The Asia session bled about 22 pips from the 1.3407 Asian high to a 1.3385 Asian low. Each bounce has printed a lower high under the trendline, the latest at 1.3394. The 06:00 UTC retail sales miss caused only a brief dip to that low before it was absorbed. Price sits below both EMAs at the London open with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR at only about 3 pips, so the range is compressed ahead of data.
Support: 1.3385, 1.3375, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3394, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft services print would be the third consumer-side miss in 24h
A close above the 1.3394 lower high breaks the trendline and the Asian lower-high chain, putting the 1.3407 Asian high and the 1.3419 prior high back in view
Failure to hold the 1.3385 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 1.3375 fib 61.8 and Thursday's 1.3355 NY low
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the second event risk of the day
Lower highs since the 1.3407 asia high, inside Thursday's 1.3355–1.3419 range.
The Asia session topped at the 1.3407 asia high and has printed lower highs since, with rejection under the 1.3400 psych level. The dip on the UK retail sales miss stalled at the 1.3385 data low, near the 38.2% of the rally fib from the 1.3355 swing low. Price is just under EMA20 ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 1.3385, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC: a soft services print would test the 1.3385 data low
An M15 close back above the 1.3400 psych level and the 1.3407 asia high invalidates the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 1.3385 data low exposes Thursday's 1.3355 swing low; the 1.3419 prior high caps the range top
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
The Asian session printed a chain of lower highs off the 1.3407 Asian high. The 06:00 UTC UK retail sales miss pushed a marginal new Asian low at 1.3385 that failed to extend. Price is compressing under the descending trendline and the 1.3391 lower high ahead of London open, holding the 38.2% fib of the NY low rally with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 1.33851, 1.3381, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.33909, 1.3400, 1.34072
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 1.3385 Asian low exposes the fib 50% at 1.3381, then the 1.3355 NY low
A reclaim of the 1.3391 lower high and the trendline puts the 1.3400 round number back in play
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US flash PMIs follow at 13:45 UTC
Asia faded from the 1.3407 asian high in a series of lower highs. Price is now pressing the 1.3387 asian low, which sits at the 38.2% retrace of Thursday's NY rally off the 1.3355 prior low, as London opens. RSI(14) is near 37 and ATR(14) is about 3.4 pips, a compressed range ahead of UK Retail Sales following the GfK slump to -24.
Support: 1.3387, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3397, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC and flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR is likely to expand from Asian levels
An M15 close below the 1.3387 asian low extends the lower-high sequence and puts the 1.3355 prior low back in view
A reclaim of the 1.3397 lower high breaks the Asia lower highs line, with the 1.3407 asian high next
The 1.3419 prior high remains the session cap if Retail Sales surprises higher
Lower highs through Asia, fresh session low on 38.2% fib.
Asia session has stepped down in lower highs from the 1.3407 Asia high and is printing a fresh Asia low at 1.3387, on the 38.2% fib of yesterday's NY rally from 1.3355. RSI(14) near 33 and ATR around 3 pips. UK Retail Sales lands at 06:00 UTC after GfK slumped to -24.
Support: 1.33867, 1.33807, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.33987, 1.34072, 1.34188
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC, the first London-hour catalyst, could materially shift this read; flash PMIs follow at 08:30 UTC
Failure to hold the 1.3387 Asia low exposes the 1.3380 base, then the 61.8% fib near 1.3375
Loss of 1.3375 puts the 1.3355 NY low back in play
Close above the 1.3399 lower high breaks the Asia downtrend line
Recovery through the 1.3407 Asia high reopens the 1.3419 prior high
Lower highs from 1.3407 Asian high, pressing Asian low.
Late Asia session has bled lower from the 1.3407 Asian high through a chain of lower highs capped by a falling trendline, now pressing the Asian low at 1.3387, which sits on the 38.2% retrace of yesterday's 1.3355 prior low to 1.3407 recovery. RSI(14) near 38 and ATR around 3 pips show a compressed tape into UK Retail Sales, with GBP stretched after GfK slumped to -24.
Support: 1.33867, 1.3381, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.33973, 1.34072, 1.34188
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC and flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC could expand the range sharply from London open
Failure to hold the 1.3387 asian low exposes the fib 50% at 1.3381, then yesterday's prior low at 1.3355
Close above the falling trendline and the 1.3397 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high chain toward the 1.3407 asian high
Retake of 1.3407 brings yesterday's 1.3419 prior high and the 1.3400 daily-close question back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC are the next USD-side risk during NY hours
Lower highs off the Asian high, Asian range low giving way late in Asia.
Late Asia slipped through the 1.3391 asian low after overnight GfK plunged to -24. That extends a lower-high chain from the 1.3407 asian high, with RSI(14) near 29. Price now sits on the 38.2% fib retrace of Thursday's NY rally off the 1.3355 swing low, with the 1.3381 pivot (50% level) just below.
Support: 1.3381, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3391, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1% m/m), ahead of London open, could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 1.3391 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 1.3381 pivot exposes the 1.3355 swing low
Close above the falling trendline and the 1.3407 asian high negates the lower-high chain; prior high 1.3419 sits above
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC are a second risk inside London hours
05:01 UTC
Short-term down, lower highs through Asia · RSI 34 · price 1.33909
Asian range 1.3390–1.3407 with lower highs, price pressing the range low.
Asia faded from the 1.3407 asian high into a lower-high sequence along the trendline. Price is now pressing the 1.3390 asian low near the 38.2% of Thursday's NY rally, with GBP soft after the GfK slump to -24 ahead of UK Retail Sales. RSI(14) is near 34 and ranges have compressed to about 4 pips per bar.
Support: 1.3390, 1.3381, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3399, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC could break the Asian range either way; ATR is likely to expand sharply
M15 close below the 1.3390 asian low opens the swing low at 1.3381, the 50% of the NY rally
Recovery above the 1.3399 micro high breaks the Asian lower-high trendline and puts the 1.3407 asian high back in focus
Loss of 1.3381 exposes Thursday's 1.3355 ny low; the thu high at 1.3419 caps the upside
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC could extend or reverse the post-Retail Sales move
Lower highs inside the Asian range, pressing the range floor.
Asia stalled at the 1.3407 Asian high, short of Thursday's 1.3419 prior high. Price has slipped back to the 1.3391 Asian low on a descending trendline of lower highs, with RSI(14) near 35 and a tight 3.5-pip ATR ahead of UK data. Thursday's NY rebound from the 1.3355 prior low is still intact, sitting near the 23.6% level of the rebound fib, and GfK's slump to -24 puts the focus on Retail Sales.
Support: 1.33913, 1.33858, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.34072, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3391 Asian low breaks the range and exposes the 1.3386 gap low, then the 38.2% rebound fib near 1.3387
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1% m/m) could materially shift this read, with UK flash PMIs following at 08:30 UTC
Reclaim of the 1.3400 round number and the descending trendline turns focus back to the 1.3407 Asian high
Loss of the 1.3355 prior low would unwind Thursday's entire NY rebound
04:16 UTC
Sideways, mild downward drift late in Asia · RSI 40 · price 1.33957
Asian range 1.3391–1.3407 with lower highs, price near range floor.
Late Asia session. Price is compressed in a 1.3391–1.3407 Asian range after Thursday's NY rebound from the 1.3355 day low. Lower highs have formed off the 1.3407 Asian high, with price below both EMAs and drifting toward the Asian low. The GfK slump to -24 hangs over the 06:00 UTC UK Retail Sales print.
Support: 1.33913, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.34072, 1.34188
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1% m/m) could break the Asian range either way
M15 close below the 1.3391 asian low opens the 50% retrace of the NY rally near 1.3381, then the 1.3355 day low
Close above the lower-highs line and 1.3407 asian high exposes the 1.3419 day high
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC and US PMIs at 13:45 UTC are follow-on risk for the read
04:01 UTC
Intraday range, drifting lower from Asia high · RSI 44 · price 1.33951
Lower highs inside a tight late-Asia range (1.3391–1.3399).
Late Asia session: GBPUSD was rejected at the 1.3407 Asia high, a repeat of yesterday's NY-session top. It is now compressing in a 1.3391–1.3399 band under a lower-highs line, below both EMAs and sitting on the 23.6% retrace of the rally off the 1.3355 NY low. The overnight GfK slump to -24 leaves UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC as the next driver, with the 1.3419 London high capping above.
Support: 1.33913, 1.3387, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.33987, 1.34072, 1.34188
What it said to watch
A break of the 1.3391 Asia low exposes the fib 38.2 near 1.3387 and opens the move back toward the 1.3355 NY low
An M15 close above the 1.3399 range top and the lower-highs line puts the 1.3407 Asia high back in play
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1% m/m) could break this range; a weak print in line with the GfK slump would test the Asia low
Above 1.3407, the 1.3419 London high is the next reference ahead of the 08:30 UTC UK flash PMIs
03:46 UTC
Range-bound, mild downside drift through Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.33956
Asian range 1.3391–1.3407, lower highs since the 1.3407 rejection.
Asia rejected 1.3407, a repeat of the NY-session high, and slipped back below the 1.3400 psych level to a 1.3391 asian low. Late in Asia, price is coiling just under 1.3400 with RSI(14) near 41 and EMA20/50 overhead, while the overnight GfK slump (-24 vs -15) leaves sterling soft into Retail Sales.
Support: 1.3391, 1.3380, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1% m/m) could materially shift this read; flash PMIs follow at 08:30 UTC
M15 close back above 1.3400 psych and the 1.3407 asian high reopens the 1.3419 prior high
Failure to hold the 1.3391 asian low exposes the 1.3380 ny base and the 38.2% fib of the NY rally near 1.3387
A break below the 1.3380 ny base brings the 1.3355 prior low into view
Lower highs off Asian high, holding above swing low.
Late Asia session: price is drifting at 1.3394, with highs stepping lower since the rejection at the 1.3407 Asian high. That high sits below Thursday's 1.3419 prior high, and the swing low at 1.3391 has held twice; RSI(14) is near 36 and ATR is about 4 pips, a quiet tape after the overnight GfK slump.
Support: 1.33913, 1.33858, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.34072, 1.34188
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1% m/m), the first hour of London; a weak print after GfK at -24 could break the range read
M15 close below the 1.3391 swing low exposes the 1.3386 gap low and the 38.2% fib near 1.3387, with the 1.3355 NY low beyond
M15 close above the 1.3400 round number and the lower-highs trendline reopens the 1.3407 Asian high, then the 1.3419 prior high
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC (services f/c 51.8) are a second London catalyst
03:16 UTC
Intraday drift lower inside Asian range · RSI 34 · price 1.33931
Lower highs from 1.3407 Asian high, testing range floor.
Asia session faded from the 1.3407 Asian high after a rejection there, printing lower highs down to the 1.3391 Asian low; RSI(14) near 34 with ATR(14) around 4.5 pips. Price holds just above the 38.2% fib of Thursday's NY rebound off the 1.3355 NY low, with sterling stretched into UK Retail Sales after GfK slumped to -24.
Support: 1.3391, 1.3387, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3399, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1% m/m) after the GfK miss is the likely trigger for a break of the 1.3391–1.3407 Asian range
M15 close below the 1.3391 Asian low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3387, then the 1.3355 NY low
M15 close above the 1.3399 lower high and the lower-highs line reopens the 1.3407 Asian high and the 1.3419 prior high
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC and US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 1.3407 under the 1.3419 London high; Asia fading toward its range low.
Asia stalled at 1.3407, matching yesterday's late-NY high, and the asian high rejection has pulled price back to 1.3396, below the EMA20, with the asian low at 1.3391 holding for now. The GfK slump to -24 hangs over the session ahead of Retail Sales. Below 1.3391 sits the 38.2% fib of the 1.3355–1.3407 rally at 1.3387. Above, the london high at 1.3419 caps the session range.
Support: 1.3391, 1.3387, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1% m/m) could break the Asian range either way
M15 close below the 1.3391 asian low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3387, then the 1.3355 ny low
Reclaim of the 1.3407 asian high reopens the 1.3419 london high
02:46 UTC
Range, drifting lower in late Asia · RSI 38 · price 1.33949
Lower highs off 1.3407 Asian high; holding the Asian low.
Late Asia session: GBPUSD was rejected at the 1.3407 Asian high and is printing lower highs back toward the 1.3391 Asian low, now sitting on the 23.6% fib of the NY rebound from the 1.3355 ny low. Price has slipped below EMA20/50 with RSI near 38. Thursday's prior high at 1.3419 caps the range after GfK's slump to -24 cooled sterling.
Support: 1.3391, 1.3387, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 1.3391 asian low exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3387, then the 1.3355 ny low
Close back above the lower-highs line and the 1.3407 asian high reopens the 1.3419 prior high
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1% m/m), likely the London-open catalyst; a soft print after the GfK miss could break the range
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC (services f/c 51.8) could extend or reverse the Retail Sales move
02:31 UTC
Range, fading from Asian high · RSI 39 · price 1.33951
Lower highs inside 1.3391–1.3407 Asian range.
Asia session was rejected at the 1.3407 asian high, matching the late-NY high and leaving a double-top shape, and price has slipped back to 1.3395 near the 23.6% retracement of the NY rally from 1.3355. RSI(14) at 39 and ATR near 4 pips reflect a quiet tape ahead of UK Retail Sales, with GfK's slump to -24 hanging over sterling.
Support: 1.3391, 1.3387, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 1.3391 confirms the double top and exposes the 38.2% fib of the NY rally at 1.3387
M15 close above the asian high at 1.3407 reopens the prior high at 1.3419
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1% m/m) could reset the Asian range; a weak print brings the prior low at 1.3355 into view
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC and US PMIs at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower-high off 1.3407, pressing the Asian low inside the 1.3355–1.3419 day range.
Asia stalled again at the 1.34 psych handle, topping at the 1.3407 asian high, and has slipped back below EMA20/EMA50 to test the 1.3390 asian low. The day is still a 1.3355–1.3419 range: the London high reversed as Iran tensions lifted the USD, then NY rebounded from its low. RSI(14) sits in the mid-30s and is not stretched.
Support: 1.3390, 1.3381, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3390 asian low exposes the fib 50% of the NY rally near 1.3381
Recovery back above 1.3400 psych and the 1.3407 asian high would reopen the 1.3419 london high
Loss of the 1.3355 ny low would break the day range to the downside
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1% MoM) and UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read after the GfK miss
02:01 UTC
Sideways after NY rebound, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 1.34001
Tight Asian range at the 1.34 handle, below London's rejection high.
The NY rebound from the 1.3355 day low stalled at 1.3407. The Asian session is now pinned in a 1.3394–1.3407 range around the 1.34 handle, still well below the 1.3419 london high where USD demand forced Thursday's rejection. Price sits at the lower edge of the asian high/late ny low band. RSI(14) is neutral near 48 and ATR is compressed at ~3.6 pips after GfK's slump to -24 drew little reaction.
Support: 1.3393, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.34072, 1.34188
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC and flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC could break the Asian range
M15 close above the 1.3407 asian high opens a retest of the 1.3419 london high
Failure to hold the 1.3393 late ny low exposes the NY rebound's midpoint and then the 1.3355 day low
01:46 UTC
Recovered intraday, flat in Asia · RSI 54 · price 1.34024
Tight Asia consolidation just above 1.3400, below London high.
NY fully retraced the London sell-off from the 1.3355 NY low, and the rollover dip held near the 38.2% fib of that rally. Asia is pinned in a 1.3400–1.3407 band just above the round number, with the late GfK miss (-24) barely registering; the 1.3419 London high caps above.
Support: 1.34003, 1.33926, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.34072, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3407 Asian high exposes the 1.3419 London high
Loss of the 1.3400 round number reopens the 1.3393 swing low and the 38.2% fib
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) could materially shift this read
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC are the next test for the London open
01:31 UTC
Recovered, flat in Asia · RSI 59 · price 1.34027
Tight Asian range below London high.
NY fully reversed the London slide from the 1.3419 London high, where Iran headlines and strong US claims revived USD demand, rallying off the 1.3355 NY low. Asia is holding a tight 1.3400–1.3407 band, and the rollover low gap at 1.3386 filled within the hour.
Support: 1.34003, 1.33858, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.34072, 1.34188
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC, after the -24 GfK miss, could break the Asian range either way
M15 close above the 1.3407 Asian high exposes the 1.3419 London high
Loss of the 1.3400 round number reopens the rollover low at 1.3386, near the 38.2% of the NY rally
Break of rising support from the NY low through the rollover low invalidates the recovery read
Flash UK PMIs at 08:30 UTC are the next London-session risk
01:16 UTC
Sideways after NY recovery, momentum neutral · RSI 57 · price 1.34021
Tight Asia range 1.3393–1.3407 above round number, range top capped twice.
London faded the 1.3419 day high as USD demand returned on Iran headlines, and NY extended to a 1.3355 day low before fully retracing to 1.3407. Early Asia is holding a 4-pip-ATR band between the 1.3393 swing low and the 1.3407 range top. Price sits just above the 1.3400 round number, with lower highs from the day high still intact.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33926, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.34072, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3407 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 1.3419 day high
Failure to hold the 1.3400 round number and the 1.3393 swing low reopens the 38.2% NY rally fib near 1.3386
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) follows the -24 GfK miss and could break the Asia range
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC are the next scheduled risk to this read
US PMIs at 13:45 UTC put the 1.3355 day low back in focus on a strong USD print
After the London high at 1.3419 was rejected, Iran-driven USD demand dragged price to a 1.3355 day low. The NY rally that followed held as DXY faded near 102.00. Asia session has built a higher-low chain off the 1.3390 asian low and is now retesting the 1.3407 ny high, holding just above the 1.3400 round number.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3390, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.3407 ny high opens the 1.3419 london high
Failure to hold the 1.3400 round number puts the 1.3390 asian low and the Asia trendline in focus
A break of the 1.3390 asian low exposes a deeper NY rally fib retracement toward the 1.3355 day low
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC, with a weak print primed by the GfK -24 miss, could materially shift this read
Flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC are a follow-on risk into London open
00:46 UTC
Recovered from NY low, now coiling · RSI 66 · price 1.34041
Tight Asian range 1.3400–1.3406 capped just under the NY high.
NY session retraced the full London drop from the 1.3419 London high to 1.3355 as the USD faded after DXY stalled near 102.00. Early Asia is holding a 6-pip coil above psych 1.3400 and just under the 1.3407 NY high, with the post-GfK dip (-24 vs -15) contained above the 1.3393 swing low.
Support: 1.3400, 1.3393, 1.33868
Resistance: 1.34067, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3407 NY high exposes the 1.3419 London high
Loss of psych 1.3400 and the 1.3393 swing low reopens the fib 38.2 of the NY rally at 1.3387
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1% MoM) could break the Asian coil in either direction
00:31 UTC
Recovered from NY low, stalling at 1.3400 · RSI 56 · price 1.34037
Tight Asian band 1.3400–1.3406 above rising intraday support.
The NY rally off the 1.3355 day low has retraced about 78.6% of the London-NY drop from the 1.3419 day high, and early Asia is holding a 1.3400–1.3406 band just above the round number. The NY high at 1.3406 is capping price, and the rollover gap down to the 1.3386 Asian low sits underneath. GBP is carrying the -24 GfK miss into 06:00 UTC UK retail sales.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33858, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.34067, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 1.3400 round number reopens the gap toward the 1.3386 asian low
Close above the 1.3406 ny high exposes the 1.3419 day high
Break of rising support off the 1.3355 day low ends the recovery structure
UK retail sales at 06:00 UTC and flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range above 1.3400 after a V-recovery from the NY low.
Early Asia session. Price has retraced about 75% of yesterday's drop from the 1.3419 day high to 1.3355, and is now compressing in a 4-pip band just above the 1.3400 round number, capped under the 1.3407 NY high. The rollover gap down to the 1.3386 gap low was filled within the hour, and GBP shrugged off the -24 GfK miss, with the 61.8% day high-low fib at 1.3394 sitting near the 1.3393 late NY low.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33926, 1.33858
Resistance: 1.34067, 1.34188
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.3407 ny high exposes the 1.3419 day high
Failure to hold the 1.3400 round number reopens the 1.3393 late ny low and the 1.3386 gap low
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1%) after the GfK miss could break the Asian range either side
00:01 UTC
Rebounding, now flat · RSI 56 · price 1.34024
Tight early-Asia range 1.3393–1.3407 after V-shaped NY recovery.
Thursday's London spike to the 1.3419 London high failed. NY extended the drop to 1.3355 on a USD bid tied to Iran headlines, then a late rebound retraced about three-quarters of the London-NY drop, back above the 1.3400 round number. Early Asia is compressing between the late NY low at 1.3393 and the NY high at 1.3407, with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR(14) around 4 pips.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33926
Resistance: 1.34067, 1.34188
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1% MoM) after the -24 GfK miss could break the Asian range either way
M15 close above the 1.3407 NY high exposes the 1.3419 London high
Failure to hold the 1.3400 round number and the 1.3393 late NY low reopens the 1.3383 area
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC could shift the read during London open