1.3355–1.3419 range; Friday lower highs pressing the floor.
The week's dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session, lifting the pair from near 1.3300 to 1.3409. The hot UK core CPI on Wednesday then held it in a 1.3365–1.3400 band. Thursday's London push to a 1.3419 week high was rejected inside two hours, a false break that ran to a 1.3355 Thursday low before recovering. Friday printed lower highs as the strong US PMIs lifted USD despite the UK PMI beat, and price now sits below the EMA20 near 1.3379 with RSI(14) around 41, at the 38.2% retracement of the week rally (1.3372) and just above the 1.3361 Friday low.
Support: 1.3361, 1.3355, 1.3336
Resistance: 1.3379, 1.3388, 1.3419
What it said to watch
An hourly close below the 1.3355 Thursday low breaks the range floor and the 50% of the week rally, exposing the 1.3336 Tuesday low and the 1.3330 area.
A reclaim of the EMA20 and a break of the Friday lower highs trendline above the 1.3388 NY high would put the range top and the 1.3419 week high back in play.
Fed decision Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC and the UK Autumn Forecast Statement the same day at 10:00 UTC could materially shift this read; Tuesday's US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence set the tone before that.
Weekend Middle East headlines could gap the Monday open away from the 1.3361–1.3388 Friday NY range.
19:02 UTC
Range after Tuesday's impulse, Friday drifting lower · RSI 40 · price 1.33683
Lower highs from 1.3419; 1.3355 range floor still intact.
The week's impulse came in Tuesday's London-to-NY rally from 1.3296 to 1.3409. Since then GBPUSD has rotated in a 1.3355–1.3419 range: Thursday's London push to the 1.3419 week high met rejection and fell to the 1.3355 Thursday low during NY hours. Friday printed a sequence of lower highs from 1.3407 as the UK PMI beat failed to offset firmer US PMIs and haven USD demand, leaving price at 1.3368, below the EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 1.3380 and just above the 1.3361 Friday low, with RSI(14) near 40 and short of oversold.
Support: 1.3361, 1.3355, 1.3330
Resistance: 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3355 Thursday low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.3330 Tuesday base, also flagged as key support in the macro digest
Recovery above the Friday lower highs line and the EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 1.3380 neutralises the slide; the 1.3400 round number and 1.3419 week high sit above
Weekend Middle East headlines, Tuesday's US durable goods, and Wednesday's UK Autumn Forecast Statement and Fed decision could materially shift this read
1.3355–1.3419 range above Tuesday's breakout; lower highs through Friday.
Tuesday's London-open and NY-session rally from 1.3296 to 1.3409 set the week's impulse. After the hot core CPI, Thursday's London session tagged the 1.3419 week high, then USD demand drove a rejection to the 1.3355 thursday low during NY hours, near the 50% retracement of the Tue-Thu impulse. Friday has printed lower highs from the 1.3407 friday high through London and NY as strong US PMIs outweighed the UK PMI beat, leaving price below a flattening EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 1.3381 with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 1.33646, 1.33547, 1.3335
Resistance: 1.3381, 1.3407, 1.34188
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 1.3365 friday low exposes the 1.3355 thursday low and the 50% retracement
H1 close back above the ema20 near 1.3381 and the Friday lower highs line would break the intraday lower-high sequence
A break below the 1.3335 tue base, near the 1.3330 support flagged in the digest, would undo Tuesday's breakout
Only a close above the 1.3419 week high reopens 1.3440
US durable goods Tue, then the UK fiscal statement and FOMC on Wed 28 Oct, could materially shift this read
1.3355–1.3419 range since Tuesday's breakout, Friday lower highs.
Tuesday's London-NY transition rally ran from the 1.3336 impulse base to 1.3409, and Wednesday's hot UK CPI kept price parked in a 1.3355–1.3419 range. Thursday's London push to the 1.3419 week high met rejection as broad USD strength took over, and Friday's UK PMI beat failed to lift the pair. Price has since printed lower highs into the 1.3388 area, slipped below the EMA(20) at 1.3383 with EMA(20) now under EMA(50) and RSI(14) near 40, while the Friday low at 1.3365 sits on the 61.8% retracement of the week's rally just above the 1.3355 range floor.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3355, 1.3336
Resistance: 1.3383, 1.3388, 1.3419
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 1.3355 range floor breaks the week's structure, with the 1.3336 impulse base the next reference
Close back above the 1.3388 lower highs and the ema20 neutralises Friday's pullback, leaving the 1.3419 week high as the range top
Failure of the 1.3365 friday low at the 61.8% fib exposes the range floor
Weekend Iran/Middle East headlines, then Wed's UK Autumn Forecast Statement and FOMC decision, could materially shift this read
16:01 UTC
Range after Tuesday impulse, momentum fading · RSI 45 · price 1.33849
Tuesday's NY-session impulse from 1.3340 to 1.3409 set this week's range, and bids held after Wednesday's hot UK CPI. Thursday's London tag of the 1.3419 monthly high was rejected on broad USD demand, sending price down to the 1.3355 Thursday low near the 50% fib of the week impulse before it recovered. Friday's London session printed lower highs despite the UK PMI beat, but the 1.3365 Friday low held above Thursday's. After the US PMIs price sits on EMA(20) and below EMA(50) near 1.3388, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3355, 1.3330
Resistance: 1.3388, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3355 Thursday low breaks the range floor and exposes 1.3330 UOB support
Break of the Friday lower-high line and EMA(50) at 1.3388 reopens the Friday high at 1.3407
Another rejection at the 1.3419 monthly high would mark a second failed attempt at the range top
Fed decision and UK Autumn Forecast Statement on Wed Oct 28 could materially shift this read
Tue Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence are the last US inputs before FOMC
15:01 UTC
Range after Tuesday impulse, drifting lower · RSI 42 · price 1.33749
Lower highs off 1.3419 inside a 1.3355–1.3419 range.
Tuesday's NY-session impulse from 1.3296 set a 1.3355–1.3419 range. Hot UK CPI kept price near 1.34 on Wednesday, then Thursday's London push to the 1.3419 week high briefly cleared Tuesday's 1.3409 peak and failed, reversing to the 1.3355 thu low before a sharp NY recovery. Friday's UK PMI beat was outweighed by broad USD demand: price has printed lower highs since the 1.3407 fri high and now sits below the ema20 near 1.3384, at the 38.2% retracement of the week impulse with RSI(14) near 42 and the fri low at 1.3365 just underneath.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3355, 1.3330
Resistance: 1.3384, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3355 thu low breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.3330 tue base, also the 50–61.8% zone of the week impulse fib
Recovery above the ema20 near 1.3384 and then the 1.3407 fri high would break the lower-high trendline from Thursday
Acceptance above the 1.3419 week high would invalidate the false break read
Next week's UK Autumn Forecast Statement and FOMC (both Oct 28) are the next inputs that could materially shift this read
14:01 UTC
Range after Tuesday breakout, momentum softening · RSI 46 · price 1.33808
1.3355–1.3419 range since Tuesday; lower highs and higher lows compressing into Friday.
Tuesday's London-NY transition carried price out of the 1.3300–1.3335 base and through 1.3400. Since then H1 has rotated in a 1.3355–1.3419 range: Thursday's London push to the 1.3419 month high was rejected and sold to the 1.3355 thu low before recovering in NY. Friday has printed lower highs beneath the 1.3407 asia high and slipped under ema20 (~1.3385) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 46. The 1.3365 friday low held between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Tuesday impulse fib, as firm UK flash PMIs were offset by broad USD demand.
Support: 1.3365, 1.3355, 1.3343
Resistance: 1.3385, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3355 thu low breaks the range floor and the higher-low line, exposing the fib 61.8 at 1.3343
Failure to hold the 1.3365 friday low would undercut the higher-low sequence from Thursday
Reclaim of ema20 near 1.3385 and the lower-high line returns focus to the 1.3407 asia high and the 1.3419 month high
US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; FOMC and the UK Autumn Forecast Statement both fall on Oct 28
1.3355–1.3419 range since Tuesday NY; lower highs through Friday.
Tuesday's breakout from the 1.3300–1.3335 base ran to 1.3409 in the NY session. Price has held a 1.3355–1.3419 range since, firmed by Wednesday's hot UK CPI, but Thursday's London-open push to the 1.3419 week high met rejection and USD demand dragged price to the 1.3355 Thursday low in NY. Friday's lower highs from the 1.3407 Friday high, with broad USD strength on Iran tensions outweighing the UK PMI beat, leave price below EMA(20) near 1.3384, at the Friday low and the 38.2% retracement of the week advance (1.3372), with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 1.3367, 1.3355, 1.3335
Resistance: 1.3384, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3355 Thursday low breaks the range floor and puts the 1.3335 breakout zone and the 61.8% retracement of the week advance (1.3343) in focus
A hold of the 1.3367 Friday low and a reclaim of EMA(20) at 1.3384 above the Friday lower highs line would neutralise the Friday drift, with the 1.3407 Friday high and the 1.3419 week high next
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM sentiment at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
UK Autumn Forecast Statement (Oct 28) and Wednesday's Fed decision are the next event risks for the range
Lower high under week high; testing rising trendline.
The rally ran from Monday's 1.3296 low to the 1.3419 week high on Thursday. Wednesday's hot UK CPI drove that leg, but the push above 1.3410 failed into Thursday's NY session and dropped to the 1.3355 swing low. Friday's Asia lower high at 1.3407 has been faded through London, leaving price below EMA(20) near 1.3388. It now sits on the Friday low, the 38.2% fib of the Mon-Thu rally and the rising trendline near 1.3372. Cable's muted response to today's PMI beat and retail sales miss fits a priced-in BoE hike.
Support: 1.33706, 1.33547, 1.3336
Resistance: 1.3388, 1.34072, 1.34188
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 1.3355 swing low breaks the week's higher-low sequence and exposes the 1.3336 Tue pullback area near the 61.8% fib
Recovery above EMA(20) at 1.3388 and the 1.3407 lower high reopens the 1.3419 week high
Loss of the 1.3371 Friday low and rising trendline confirms the pullback is extending
1.3355–1.3419 range since Wednesday, lower high Friday.
Cable climbed from Monday's 1.3296 low to 1.34 on Tuesday's NY-session USD weakness and Wednesday's hot UK CPI. It has since chopped between the 1.3355 thursday low and the 1.3419 week high, where Thursday's London push was rejected. Friday's 1.3407 high came in lower and the pair slid from the Asian range into London despite the strong UK PMI beat. It printed a 1.3371 friday low at the 38.2% fib of the week's impulse and now trades below the EMA(20)/EMA(50) ema cluster near 1.3389, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3355, 1.3343
Resistance: 1.3389, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
US flash PMIs (13:45 UTC) and UoM inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read during NY hours
H1 close above the 1.3389 ema cluster puts the 1.3407 friday high and 1.3419 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 1.3371 friday low exposes the 1.3355 thursday low; a close below the range floor opens the 61.8% fib near 1.3343
Rising support from Monday's low sits near 1.3372, and a clean break would end the week's higher-low sequence
Lower highs from the week high now cap price near 1.3407
1.3355–1.3419 range since Tuesday's breakout, lower highs since Thursday.
GBPUSD broke out of Monday's 1.3300 base during Tuesday's NY session, and Wednesday's hot UK CPI carried it to a 1.3419 week high at Thursday's London open. That push above the 1.3403 highs was a false break: the move unwound to a 1.3355 thu low in NY hours, and every rebound since has stalled at a 1.3407 lower high. Today's London session slipped to a 1.3371 day low, and price faded the UK PMI beat as USD demand capped it. Price now sits below the ema20 at 1.3388 with RSI(14) near 34, resting on the 38.2% retracement of the week impulse fib.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3355, 1.3336
Resistance: 1.3388, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3355 thu low, which is also the 50% of the week impulse fib, breaks the range floor and exposes the 1.3336 breakout low
Reclaim of the ema20 at 1.3388 followed by a close above the 1.3407 lower high reopens the 1.3419 week high
Holding the 1.3371 day low keeps the slide contained inside the range
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Michigan sentiment at 14:00 UTC could shift this read during the NY session
Post-breakout range 1.3355–1.3419, lower high Friday.
The week's impulse ran from Monday's 1.3296 low through Tuesday's NY-session breakout and Wednesday's hot UK CPI print. It topped at the 1.3419 week high in Thursday's London session, then saw a rejection into NY on Middle East headlines and the US claims beat, with a dip to the 1.3355 thu low before a recovery stalled at a 1.3407 lower high. Friday's London session has slipped below EMA20 toward 1.3371 after the UK retail-sales miss. Price now sits on the 38.2% fib of the week's impulse and the rising support line, with RSI(14) near 38 and well off Thursday's highs.
Support: 1.3371, 1.3355, 1.3343
Resistance: 1.3389, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 1.3355 thu low breaks rising support and exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.3343
Reclaim of ema20 near 1.3389 and a close above the 1.3407 lower high puts the 1.3419 week high back in play
UK flash PMI beat just released, with US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Holding the 1.3371 fri low keeps price inside the 1.3355–1.3419 range
Post-CPI range 1.3355–1.3419 under lower highs; price testing range mid.
The week's impulse ran from Monday's 1.3296 low to Thursday's 1.3419 week high. Tuesday's NY session and Wednesday's hot UK CPI at London open did the lifting. Since the rejection at the week high, the pair has ranged 1.3355–1.3419 under a lower-high sequence, and Thursday's USD-bid dip found demand at the thu low, near the 50% fib of the week's impulse. Friday's Asia-to-London drift has taken price below EMA(20) to test the friday low at 1.3381 after a muted reaction to the retail sales miss, with RSI(14) near 40 and the tue base at 1.3336 below the range.
Support: 1.3381, 1.3355, 1.3336
Resistance: 1.3392, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
UK flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC: a sub-51 services print would put the friday low at 1.3381 under pressure
H1 close below the thu low at 1.3355 (50% fib) breaks the post-CPI range floor and exposes the tue base at 1.3336
Reclaim of ema20 and a close above the 1.3407 lower high reopen the 1.3419 week high
US flash PMIs and UoM from 13:45 UTC could materially shift the NY session read
07:01 UTC
Uptrend since Monday, now ranging below week high · RSI 43 · price 1.33869
1.3355–1.3419 range above Tuesday's breakout; lower high in Asia.
The week's advance from the 1.3297 Monday low came in Tuesday's NY session on soft US housing data, and Wednesday's hot UK CPI extended it to the 1.3419 week high on Thursday. Since then price has rotated inside a range. Iran headlines and strong US claims pushed it down to the 1.3355 Thu low in NY hours, near the 50% retracement of the week advance, and that drop was fully reclaimed the same session. In Friday's Asian session a lower high printed at the 1.3407 asian high, price slipped back below EMA(20) near 1.3393, and it now sits on the 1.3385 asian low with RSI(14) near 43. Sterling has so far shrugged off the GfK and retail sales misses.
Support: 1.3385, 1.3355, 1.3297
Resistance: 1.3393, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
UK flash Services PMI at 08:30 UTC (f/c 51.8): a sub-51 print would be the third soft UK release and could break the range read
H1 close below the 1.3385 asian low exposes the 1.3355 thu low and 50% retracement of the week advance
Loss of 1.3355 would break the rising lows line and the range floor, leaving the 1.3297 monday low as the next reference
A recovery above EMA(20) and the 1.3407 asian high would cancel the lower-high read and put the 1.3419 week high back in play
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC could shift the read during the NY session
06:01 UTC
Uptrend since Monday, stalling below week high · RSI 49 · price 1.33879
Post-impulse range 1.3355–1.3419 with lower highs since Thursday.
The week's dominant leg came Tuesday–Wednesday, lifting GBPUSD from the 1.3296 Monday low as the firm wage data and the CPI beat drove London and NY session rallies. Thursday's London push to the 1.3419 week high was rejected. A USD bid on Iran headlines then cut price to the 1.3355 thu low, near the 50% fib, during NY hours before it recovered. Price now sits just under the ema20 near 1.3393 with RSI(14) flat near 49. The Asia high at 1.3407 sits beneath the week high, forming a lower high, while the 1.3377 wed lows mark the inner floor of the range.
Support: 1.3377, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3393, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1% m/m) after the GfK slump to -24 could break the range in either direction
H1 close above the 1.3419 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the consolidation
Failure to hold the 1.3377 wed lows exposes the 1.3355 thu low and 50% fib zone
Hold below the ema20 and the 1.3407 asia high keeps the lower-highs read intact
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and Michigan at 14:00 UTC could shift the NY session read
05:01 UTC
Range after early-week rally, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 1.3395
1.3355–1.3419 range since Tuesday, capped near 1.3400.
The week's dominant leg came Tuesday, when the UK jobs data and the NY open lifted price off Monday's 1.3296 week low to 1.3409. Since then the pair has ranged 1.3355–1.3419, with supply capping each push into the 1.3400 area, and Thursday's London spike to the 1.3419 week high turned into a false break that unwound to the 1.3355 thu low during NY hours on Iran-driven USD demand, close to the 50% retracement of the Mon–Thu rally fib. Price recovered to 1.3407 in the Asia session and now sits flat on EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 53 and ATR compressed to about 10 pips; the asia high at 1.3407 and asia low at 1.3391 frame the immediate band ahead of UK Retail Sales.
Support: 1.3391, 1.3355, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC and flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC could break the 1.3391 asia low / 1.3407 asia high band
An H1 close above the 1.3419 week high clears the lower highs line from Thursday and invalidates the range read
Loss of the 1.3355 thu low breaks rising support from Monday's week low and exposes the 61.8% fib near 1.3343
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
04:01 UTC
Up on the week, flattening into a range · RSI 54 · price 1.33934
Range 1.3355–1.3419 after Tuesday's impulse; Thursday dip held mid-fib.
GBP/USD rallied from Monday's NY-session week low at 1.3296 into Tuesday's NY session, after the UK wage beat. Wednesday's hot CPI extended the move to the 1.3400 area, and since then price has traded a 1.3355–1.3419 range. The week high at 1.3419 drew a London-session rejection on Thursday as Iran headlines lifted the USD, but the slide stalled at the thu low near the 50% fib of the week's rally and fully recovered in NY. Asia has been capped at the 1.3407 asia high, with price sitting on a flat EMA(20) and RSI(14) neutral in the mid-50s.
Support: 1.3355, 1.3329, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC (f/c -0.1% m/m) after the GfK slump to -24 could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 1.3419 week high breaks the range top and the two-bar lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3355 thu low breaks the rising-lows trendline and exposes the weekly open at 1.3329
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM at 14:00 UTC during NY hours are a second volatility window
03:01 UTC
Uptrend from Monday, flattening into a range · RSI 56 · price 1.3392
1.3355–1.3419 range since Tuesday NY, above rising trendline.
The week's leg up from Monday's 1.3296 low came on Tuesday's UK jobs release and NY session follow-through, and Wednesday's hot CPI extended it to the 1.3419 week high in Thursday's London session. USD demand on claims and Iran headlines drove a Thursday NY drop below the 1.3377 swing low to the 1.3355 thu low, near the 50% of the week rally fib, then a false break and recovery to 1.3407. After the GfK miss, the Asia session capped price at the 1.3407 asia high, below the 1.3400 round number, with lower highs since Thursday and price sitting on EMA(20) near 1.3394 with RSI(14) around 56.
Support: 1.3377, 1.3366, 1.3355
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC and flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft print after the GfK miss puts the 1.3377 swing low in focus
An H1 close above the 1.3419 week high breaks the range top and the lower highs line; a sustained hold above the 1.3400 round number has been absent this week
Failure to hold 1.3377 exposes the rising trendline near 1.3366 and the 1.3355 thu low; a break there turns the week rally fib structure into a deeper retracement
US PMIs at 13:45 UTC and UoM inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC are the NY session risk for range resolution
02:01 UTC
Uptrend since Monday, stalling at the 1.34 handle · RSI 59 · price 1.34026
1.3355–1.3419 range under 1.34; higher lows off the week low still intact.
Cable has climbed from Monday's 1.3296 week low on hawkish UK wage and CPI data. The 1.34 handle has capped three attempts since Tuesday's NY session, and Thursday's London push to the 1.3419 week high reversed to a 1.3355 swing low as safe-haven USD demand returned. That dip held near the 50% retracement of the week's impulse and was recovered in NY. Price now sits just above EMA(20) at 1.3394 in a tight Asian range under the 1.3407 Asia high, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 1.3394, 1.3355, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3407, 1.3419
What it said to watch
UK Retail Sales at 06:00 UTC and flash PMIs at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the digest flags downside asymmetry on a soft print
H1 close above the 1.3419 week high breaks the range top that has capped price since Tuesday
Loss of ema20 at 1.3394 returns price to the middle of the range
Break below the 1.3355 swing low and the higher-low trendline undercuts the week's uptrend structure toward the week low
US S&P Global PMIs at 13:45 UTC are a second volatility window for USD
01:02 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below the week high · RSI 57 · price 1.34034
Range 1.3355–1.3419 since Tuesday, above rising support from Monday's low.
GBPUSD has climbed from Monday's 1.3296 low on the hot UK jobs and CPI prints, with the gains made in Tuesday's NY session and Wednesday's London session. Since then price has rotated in a 1.3355–1.3419 range. Thursday's London push to the 1.3419 week high failed as USD haven demand returned, and the NY slide made a false break below Tuesday's 1.3365 low to the 1.3355 thu low, holding near the 50% retracement of the week impulse and on rising support. Price has since recovered above the 1.3400 round number and ema20, with RSI(14) at 57, mid-cycle.
Support: 1.3400, 1.33946, 1.33547
Resistance: 1.34067, 1.34188
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 1.3395 ema20 and 1.3400 round number puts price back in the middle of the range
Clearance of Thursday's 1.3407 ny high and the 1.3419 week high ends the range read; no daily close above 1.3400 since Sep 15
Failure to hold the 1.3355 thu low breaks rising support and the 50% retracement of the week impulse
UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 UTC after the GfK -24 miss, then UK and US flash PMIs, could materially shift this read
Consolidation 1.3355–1.3419 after Tuesday impulse, rising trendline intact.
Tuesday's London-NY impulse after the UK pay data carried GBPUSD from Monday's 1.3296 week low to the 1.3409 tue high. Since then the pair has held a 1.3355–1.3419 band, with five tests of 1.3400–1.3419 capped. Thursday's London push to the 1.3419 week high met rejection as Iran headlines and the 194K jobless-claims beat revived USD demand. The drop found the thu low at 1.3355 during NY hours, near the 50% retrace of the week's rally, before price recovered back above ema20 into the 1.3400 psych area with RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 1.3394, 1.3355, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3409, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 1.3419 week high breaks the cap that has held all week
Failure to hold the 1.3355 thu low breaks the rising trendline and exposes 1.3330, then the 1.3296 week low
Loss of ema20 near 1.3394 returns price to the middle of the 1.3355–1.3419 range
UK Retail Sales Fri 06:00 UTC lands after the -24 GfK miss and could materially shift this read
US flash PMIs at 13:45 UTC Fri are the next USD swing factor