Sterling fell steadily from Monday's 1.3431 open to three-week lows near 1.3300, a Dollar/geopolitics-led move rather than a UK-data one — retail sales and PMIs beat but upside stalled. Price has based above the weekly low into the weekend and reclaimed the 1.3340 pivot on the reopen gap, with RSI(14) lifting off its lows. The sequence of lower highs from 1.3455 remains intact and the 1.3435 cap is untested this week.
Support: 1.3340, 1.3328, 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3395, 1.3435
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.3340 keeps the lower-high structure intact and re-exposes the 1.3300 weekly low
Sustained break above the 1.3435 weekly cap needed to negate this week's downtrend
BoE decision, MPC vote split and MPR on Jul 30 11:00 UTC is the dominant near-term risk
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 54 · price 1.33427
Three-week lows, weekend gap up.
Sterling slid through the week to three-week lows near 1.3300 on a broad USD safe-haven bid, with the drop from 1.3455 accelerating into the 1.330 base despite strong UK retail and PMI data. Price then gapped higher at this week's open, reclaiming the 1.3340 pivot and probing 1.3356 before settling at 1.33427. RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-50s as the bounce holds above EMA(20).
Support: 1.3340, 1.3300, 1.32985
Resistance: 1.33558, 1.33487, 1.3435
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 1.3340 re-exposes 1.3300 and the 1.32985 week low
Sustained trade above 1.3356 would extend the recovery toward the 1.3435 weekly cap
FOMC Wed and BoE Thu are the dominant catalysts that could reset this read
Sterling fell steadily across the week to a three-week low near 1.3300 on a USD safe-haven and UK fiscal story, before basing and consolidating above the figure. The new week opened with a thin, low-volume gap that has lifted price back above the 1.3340 pivot, but conviction is limited until London-session flow confirms. RSI(14) has recovered off oversold to mid-range as the downside impulse loses steam.
Support: 1.3340, 1.3300, 1.32985
Resistance: 1.3350
What it said to watch
Thin weekend liquidity above 1.3340 needs confirmation on London open
Loss of 1.3300 exposes the 1.32985 week low and the 1.32 handle
BoE decision, MPC vote split and MPR Jul 30 11:00 UTC is the week's key risk
22:02 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 57 · price 1.33453
Lower highs, base forming near 1.3300.
Cable fell for much of the week toward the 1.3300 handle on a broad USD safe-haven bid, printing a base near 1.32985 despite the firm UK retail sales and PMI beats. Buyers stepped in twice around 1.3300 and price has since reclaimed the 1.3340 pivot into the thin week-open session, with RSI(14) recovering back above 50. Resistance at 1.3390 and the 1.3435 week cap remain the levels overhead.
Support: 1.3340, 1.3300, 1.32985
Resistance: 1.3390, 1.3435
What it said to watch
Sustained trade above 1.3340 keeps the base intact; failure back below reopens 1.3300 and the 1.32985 swing low
H1 close above 1.3390 would confirm a higher high off the base
FOMC Jul 29 and BoE Jul 30 are the dominant catalysts and can override this week's structure
Consolidation above week low after impulsive drop.
GBPUSD extended six sessions of losses this week, sliding from Monday's 1.3453 high to the 1.3299 week low as a broad safe-haven USD bid outweighed a strong UK data run. Price has since consolidated in the low 1.33s, holding just above the 1.3300 handle with RSI(14) basing near 44 and price pinned under EMA20 and EMA50. The 1.3342 pivot has capped the corrective bounces during NY hours.
Support: 1.3299, 1.3313
Resistance: 1.3342, 1.3349, 1.3435
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3342 pivot would break the sequence of lower highs
Failure to hold 1.3300 exposes the 1.32 handle
BoE decision and MPR (Jul 30, 11:00 UTC) is the dominant upcoming risk for this read
Sterling slid through the week toward the 1.3300 area on a broad safe-haven USD bid, printing successive lower highs despite strong UK retail and PMI data. The bounce off Thursday's 1.32985 low stalled at 1.3348 and price is now consolidating below the 1.3340 pivot and EMA20, with RSI(14) recovering off oversold to the mid-40s. Both EMAs remain overhead, keeping the intraday structure heavy.
Support: 1.3300, 1.32985
Resistance: 1.3325, 1.3340, 1.3348
What it said to watch
H1 close above 1.3340 pivot would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.3300 psych exposes the deeper 1.32 handle
BoE decision + MPR Thu Jul 30 11:00 UTC could materially reset this read