Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.3419 swing high.
The rally from the 1.3137 low stalled twice at 1.3409/1.3419, and the 1.3355 neckline has given way, leaving a double top with lower highs and lower lows into the 1.3327 swing low. Price is pinned to the EMA50 near 1.3342 and below the ema20 at 1.3370, with ATR(14) compressed to about 23 pips from 40-60 pip bars during the rally, as USD short-covering into Wednesday's Fed and UK Budget weighs. The fib 38.2% at 1.3311 and the prior low at 1.3296 sit in line with the double-top measured move.
Support: 1.3327, 1.3311, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3370, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3327 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the fib 38.2% at 1.3311 and the prior low at 1.3296
Recovery above the ema20 near 1.3370 and the lower-high trendline would neutralise the double-top read, leaving the 1.3419 swing high as the cap
EMA20 crossing below EMA50 would confirm the swing rolling over
UK Budget Wed 10:00 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 1.3419 swing high; higher-low sequence from 1.3137 still intact above 1.3296.
The rally from the 1.3137 low ran to a 1.3419 swing high. Since then the pair has printed lower highs, with the 1.3387 lower high capping, and has slipped below EMA20 (~1.3371) to sit just above EMA50 (~1.3336). The pullback is now retesting the 1.3330 prior range top, between the 23.6% retracement and the fib 38.2 at 1.3311, as USD short-covering into the Fed and UK Budget weighs on GBP. ATR(14) near 25 pips is steady rather than compressing.
Support: 1.3330, 1.3311, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3387, 1.3400, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3296 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence from 1.3137
Failure to hold the 1.3330 prior range and fib 38.2 at 1.3311 exposes the 50% retracement near 1.3278
H4 close back above the 1.3387 lower high neutralises the pullback read; the 1.3400 round number and 1.3419 swing high sit above
An EMA20 cross below EMA50 would confirm the swing rolling over
UK Budget (Wed 10:00 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Double top at 1.3409/1.3419, price slipping through 1.3355 neckline.
The higher-high sequence off the 1.3137 Oct 14 low has stalled into a double top at 1.3409/1.3419. A run of lower highs since, the latest at 1.3387, now has price pressing through the 1.3355 neckline, below EMA(20) and testing EMA(50) near 1.3335 just under the 23.6% retracement. USD short-trimming into Wednesday's FOMC is driving the pullback despite last week's UK core CPI and flash PMI beats, while ATR(14) near 26 pips has eased from the rally phase.
Support: 1.3335, 1.3311, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3355, 1.3387, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3335 ema50 exposes the 38.2% fib at 1.3311 and the 1.3296 swing low
Recovery back above the 1.3355 neckline and the 1.3387 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and negates the double top read
UK Autumn Forecast Statement (Wed 10:00 UTC) and FOMC decision (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence on Tue can extend or reverse the USD bid ahead of the Fed
Lower highs above a 1.3353 neckline after a rally from 1.3137.
The rally from the 1.3137 spike low peaked at the 1.3419 swing high after the strong UK flash PMIs. Since then price has printed lower highs above a 1.3353 neckline, which also sits on the 23.6% fib of the rally, giving a potential double top. Price is below EMA20 but holding the ema50 near 1.3340. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 24 pips from 40-60 pip bars during the advance, as USD short-trimming into Wednesday's FOMC drags the pair lower.
Support: 1.3353, 1.3340, 1.3297
Resistance: 1.3388, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3353 neckline and the ema50 at 1.3340 confirms the double top and exposes the 1.3297 swing low
Recovery through the 1.3388 lower high negates the topping read and reopens the 1.3419 swing high
UK Autumn Forecast Statement (Wed 10:00 UTC) and FOMC decision (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC is a pre-Fed input
Higher lows from 1.3137, now lower highs inside a 1.3353-1.3419 range.
The mid-month impulse from 1.3137 built higher lows at 1.3296 and 1.3353 and topped at the 1.3419 monthly high, helped by the hot UK core CPI and the PMI beat. Since then price has printed a sequence of lower highs, with the latest near 1.3387, and has slipped below EMA20. It is now sitting on the 1.3353 swing low, which lines up with the 23.6% fib of that impulse, while ATR(14) has compressed to about 25 pips from 35-40 earlier in the month. EMA50 near 1.3345 sits just beneath as the next shelf, with the US PMI-driven dollar bid on Friday still capping rebounds.
Support: 1.3353, 1.3345, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3387, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3353 swing low and ema50 near 1.3345 breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib near 1.3311, then the 1.3296 higher low
Close above the 1.3387 lower high and the falling lower-highs line reopens the 1.3419 monthly high
ATR compression into Wed's UK Autumn Forecast Statement (10:00 UTC) and FOMC decision (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Tue US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence are a pre-Fed tilt for the USD side
Higher lows from 1.3137; flat range 1.3353-1.3419 under the monthly high.
Higher-low structure has held since the 1.3137 swing low, with lows at 1.3296 and now 1.3353. The hot UK core CPI print helped carry the pair to the 1.3419 monthly high. Since then price has moved sideways in a 1.3353-1.3419 range, with supply capping at the 1.3400 round number for five sessions. Price sits just below EMA20 but holds above the ema50 near 1.3345. ATR(14) has compressed to about 23 pips from 40+ during the rally, a coiling profile ahead of FOMC.
Support: 1.3353, 1.3345, 1.3296
Resistance: 1.3400, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3419 monthly high breaks the range to the upside and resumes the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3353 range low and the ema50 near 1.3345 exposes the 1.3311 fib 38.2% and then the 1.3296 swing low
A break of the 1.3296 swing low would end the higher-low structure from 1.3137
FOMC decision Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the key question is whether the Fed flags a December hike
UK Autumn Forecast Statement Wed 10:00 UTC and US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC are pre-FOMC risks to the range