21:02 UTC
Downtrend since August, corrective bounce stalling · RSI 56 · price 1.33452
Lower high at 1.3419 beneath the 1.3675 August peak; price back near 38.2% retrace.
GBPUSD has made lower highs since the 1.3675 August peak, with the mid-September breakdown carrying price to the 1.3137 oct low on Oct 14. The October bounce cleared the late-September range top near 1.3297. It then stalled at 1.3419, the oct high, just under the 50% retrace of the Aug-Oct fib and the falling trendline off the August high. Three sessions of slippage since, as USD firmed into FOMC, have put price back below a declining ema50 near 1.3375.
Support: 1.3297, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3375, 1.3419, 1.3470
What it said to watch
- UK Autumn Budget and FOMC on Wed 28 Oct could materially shift this read; a gilt-supply surprise or hawkish Fed hold is the GBP-negative mix
- Daily close above the 1.3419 oct high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.3470
- Recapture of the ema50 near 1.3375 would put price back above the swing-trend filter
- Failure to hold the 1.3297 range top returns price to the prior range and reopens the 1.3137 oct low
- US Core PCE on Thu 29 Oct is a follow-on risk to USD direction