21:03 UTC
Downtrend since August top, rebound fading · RSI 48 · price 1.33074
Lower highs below falling EMA(50); Oct bounce capped at 50% retrace.
GBPUSD has been in a downtrend since the 21 Aug top at 1.3675. Price sits below a falling EMA(50), with the lower-high chain capped by the descending trendline. The 14 Oct false break below the 1.3180 range floor to a 1.3137 swing low sparked a two-week rebound, which stalled at a 1.3419 lower high near the 50% retracement of the Aug–Oct decline. The pair has given back ground since 22 Oct as resilient US data and hawkish Fed pricing lifted the dollar, and is now retesting the 1.3300 pivot, with the EMA(50) and 38.2% retrace overhead at 1.3343.
Support: 1.3297, 1.3180, 1.3137
Resistance: 1.3343, 1.3419, 1.3568
What it said to watch
- Daily close above 1.3343 (EMA(50)/38.2%), then 1.3419, would break the lower-high sequence and the descending trendline
- Only a recovery through the 1.3568 sept high would negate the Aug–Oct downtrend structure
- Failure to hold the 1.3300 pivot exposes the 1.3180 range floor; a close below the 1.3137 swing low confirms a lower-low
- US Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read after the hawkish two-dissent Fed hold