Lower highs and lows from 1.3419, held at 50% fib, lower-high line broken.
The pullback from the 1.3419 swing high printed a week of lower highs and lower lows, and EMA20 crossed below EMA50 along the way. The decline stalled at the 1.3272 swing low, which sits on the 50% fib of the 1.3137–1.3419 up-leg. The last two bars broke the descending lower-high line as USD eased after the Fed's two-dissent hold and Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser, putting price back on EMA20 with the ema50 near 1.3345 overhead and ATR(14) compressed to ~24 pips from 30–40 earlier in the month.
Support: 1.3272, 1.3245
Resistance: 1.3345, 1.3359, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 1.3359 lower high ends the lower-high sequence and brings the 1.3419 swing high back into view
Failure to hold the 1.3272 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib at 1.3245
Rejection at the ema50 near 1.3345 would turn the lower-high line break into a false break
US Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~15h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; pullback testing 50% of prior rally.
GBPUSD has printed a sequence of lower highs since the 1.3419 swing high. The lower high at 1.3387 and the break of 1.3335 broken support extended the slide as USD firmed on resilient US data into FOMC. Price is holding near the 1.3272 swing low, close to the 50% retracement of the 1.3137-1.3419 rally, with the 61.8% fib at 1.3245 below. Price trades under both EMAs after the EMA20 crossed below the EMA50, while ATR(14) near 20 pips is compressed versus mid-month.
Support: 1.3272, 1.3245, 1.3185
Resistance: 1.3335, 1.3387, 1.3419
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh press conference today could materially shift this read
H4 close below the 1.3272 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 61.8% fib at 1.3245
Loss of 1.3245 exposes the range floor near 1.3185 from earlier in the month
Reclaim of 1.3335 broken support and the lower-high trendline would break the downtrend read; above that, the 1.3387 lower high and 1.3419 swing high come back into view
US core PCE Thursday is a follow-on volatility risk
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.3419 high; price at the 50% fib.
GBP/USD has carved steady lower highs and lower lows since the 1.3419 peak. The 4-day slide is driven by a firm USD on strong US data into the Budget and FOMC. The decline has retraced to the 50% fib of the 1.3137–1.3419 rally, with the 1.3272 swing low retesting the early-October range top. RSI sits near 26, ATR(14) is a steady ~21 pips, and EMA20 is rolling over onto EMA50 in the ema cluster near 1.3331, with the 38.2% fib at 1.3311 just below.
Support: 1.3272, 1.3245, 1.3184
Resistance: 1.3311, 1.3331, 1.3359
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the lower-highs trendline and the 1.3359 lower high would break the descending sequence
Failure to hold the 1.3272 swing low exposes the 1.3245 61.8% fib, then the 1.3184 range low
Reclaiming the 38.2% fib at 1.3311 and the ema cluster near 1.3331 would neutralise the EMA rollover
UK Budget outcome and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; PCE Thursday adds USD risk
09:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Oct 22 · RSI 27 · price 1.32873
Lower highs and lower lows below the 1.3419 swing high.
Cable has printed steady lower highs since the 1.3419 swing high on Oct 22. It is now testing the 50% fib of the 1.3137–1.3419 rally near 1.3275, which also marks the top of the earlier mid-October range. EMA20 has crossed below EMA50 and RSI sits in oversold territory, while ATR(14) near 20 pips shows an orderly grind rather than an expanding selloff, driven mainly by USD firmness into the FOMC and a heavy tone into the UK Budget.
Support: 1.3275, 1.3245, 1.3190
Resistance: 1.3311, 1.3334, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3275 50% fib opens the 61.8% fib at 1.3245, with the 1.3190 range low beyond
Reclaim of the 38.2% fib at 1.3311 and the falling trendline would ease the lower-high sequence; a break of the 1.3334 lower high invalidates it
UK Budget at 10:00 UTC and FOMC at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
RSI oversold near 27; a higher low above 1.3272 on the next swing would mark the first stall in the slide
Lower highs and lower lows since the 1.3419 five-week high.
The rally from the 1.3137 swing low to the 1.3419 five-week high on Oct 22 has given way to a steady sequence of lower highs and lower lows. Price now sits at the 1.3300 handle, just under the 38.2% fib of that leg, and EMA20 has crossed below EMA50. USD strength into the FOMC and caution ahead of the UK Budget drove the three-day slide. ATR(14) has compressed to around 21 pips, which leaves the pair coiled ahead of Wednesday's twin event risk.
Support: 1.3297, 1.3278, 1.3231
Resistance: 1.3334, 1.3359, 1.3419
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 1.3297 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the fib 50% at 1.3278, then the prior lows near 1.3231
Recovery above the 1.3334 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; a further push through the 1.3359 lower high reopens the 5-week high at 1.3419
UK Autumn Budget Wed ~10:00 UTC: gilt-supply or headroom surprises could materially shift this read
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Powell presser 18:30 UTC drive the USD leg; US PCE follows Thursday