Since the 0.5626 weekly open the pair has been two-way. Monday's London push to 0.5645 faded into a grind to the 0.5603 Tuesday low. The NZ Q3 jobs miss late Tuesday then knocked it to the 0.5579 week low, before post-midterm USD selling lifted it straight back to 0.5645 on Wednesday, where it met rejection a second time to form a double top. NY hours pulled price back to the 38.2% retracement of that rally, now sitting just under EMA(20) near 0.5620 with RSI(14) slipping to the mid-40s, while the 50% fib at 0.5611 held on the late-session dip.
Support: 0.56112, 0.56025, 0.55789
Resistance: 0.56203, 0.56255, 0.56455
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5646 double top invalidates the range read and opens the 0.5650 area
Reclaiming EMA(20) and the 0.5626 weekly open would put price back in the upper half of the range
Failure to hold the 50% fib at 0.5611 exposes the 0.5603 Tuesday low and 61.8% retracement
Loss of 0.5603 brings the 0.5579 week low back into view
US Initial Jobless Claims and Fed's Hammack Thu 13:30–13:50 UTC could materially shift this read ahead of Friday's NFP
22:06 UTC
Sideways, range-bound after a data-driven whipsaw · RSI 51 · price 0.56209
0.5603–0.5645 range; false break to 0.5579 reclaimed, rejection at week high.
Contained in a 0.5603–0.5645 range since Monday's open. Late Tuesday the weak NZ Q3 jobs print pushed price to a 0.5579 week low, then post-midterm USD selling drove a full reversal through Wednesday's Asian and London sessions. That rally stalled at the 0.5645 week high, matching Monday's peak, and faded into the NY session as the ADP beat steadied the dollar. Price now sits just under the weekly open, on EMA(20) and the 38.2% retracement near 0.5620, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 0.56163, 0.56025, 0.55789
Resistance: 0.56255, 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5626 weekly open puts the 0.5645 week high back in play; a break there exposes Friday's prior high at 0.5652
Failure to hold the 0.5616 ny low and the 50% retracement at 0.5612 points back to the 0.5603 range floor
Loss of the 0.5603 range floor reopens the 0.5579 week low set on the jobs miss
US jobless claims and unit labor costs Thu 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack, with NFP on Friday, could materially shift this read
0.5579–0.5646 weekly range; lower highs since Wednesday's rejection at the week high.
The NZ Q3 jobs miss drove Tuesday's late drop to the 0.5579 week low, but the break of Tuesday's 0.5603 low failed. The post-midterm USD selloff lifted the pair through London and NY hours Wednesday, and Wednesday's rally stalled with a rejection at the 0.5646 week high, matching Monday's top. Since then H1 has printed lower highs back toward the 0.5626 weekly open, holding just above EMA(20) near 0.5621 and the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) neutral around 53.
Support: 0.5621, 0.56163, 0.55789
Resistance: 0.56255, 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5616 pullback low and the 50% fib (~0.5612) exposes Tuesday's 0.5603 low and the 0.5579 week low
Acceptance above the 0.5626 weekly open and a break of the 0.5646 week high opens the Friday high at 0.5652
US jobless claims and Fed's Hammack Thursday (13:30–13:50 UTC) could shift USD flows into Friday's NFP and change this read
20:03 UTC
Range-bound, rebound stalling under week high · RSI 56 · price 0.56228
The week has chopped between 0.5603 and 0.5646 around the 0.5626 weekly open. The NZ Q3 jobs miss late Tuesday spiked price to a 0.5579 week low, but that false break was reclaimed through Asia and London as post-midterm USD selling lifted the pair. Wednesday's London rally was rejected at 0.5646, matching Monday's week high under a line of lower highs from Friday's 0.5652 prior high, and NY pulled price back to the 38.2% retracement of the rebound near 0.5620, where it now sits marginally above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) around 56.
Support: 0.56163, 0.5600, 0.55789
Resistance: 0.56255, 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.5626 weekly open, followed by a break of the lower highs line and the 0.5646 week high, would break the range-top read and bring the 0.5652 prior high into play
A loss of the 0.5616 NY session low exposes the 50% rebound retracement at 0.5612 and the 0.5600 round number; failure there puts the 0.5579 week low back in focus
US jobless claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) and NFP (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this USD-led read
V-recovery off jobs low capped at week high; pulling back to 38.2%.
Monday and Tuesday chopped between 0.5603 and the 0.5646 week high. The NZ Q3 jobs miss then broke the range late Tuesday to a 0.5579 week low, but post-midterm USD selling turned it into a false break, with the rally off the jobs low running through Asia and London straight back to 0.56455. Supply capped that level a second time this week, NY hours printed a lower high at 0.5643, and price has slid back to the 38.2% retracement and EMA(20) near 0.5620, just under the 0.5626 week open, with RSI(14) easing to about 48.
Support: 0.56163, 0.5610, 0.55789
Resistance: 0.56255, 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5616 NY low and the Wed higher lows trendline exposes the Tue lows at 0.5610 and the 50% retracement of the rally off the jobs low.
Failure to hold 0.5600 psych reopens the 0.5579 week low.
Reclaiming the week open at 0.5626 shifts focus back to the 0.56455 week high; a close above it and the 0.5652 prior high from Friday breaks the weekly range.
US jobless claims and Fed Hammack Thu 13:30–13:50 UTC, then Friday NFP, could materially shift this USD-led read.
18:04 UTC
Sideways range, rebounding off a data-driven flush · RSI 54 · price 0.56284
0.5603–0.5645 range; false break to 0.5579 reclaimed, higher lows since.
NZDUSD flushed to a 0.5579 week low late Tuesday after the across-the-board NZ Q3 jobs miss. That move was a false break of the 0.5603–0.5645 range, fully reclaimed as post-midterm USD selling lifted the pair through today's London session. The rebound met rejection at 0.5645, matching Monday's week high, and NY hours slipped to a 0.5616 NY low near the 38.2% rebound fib before price steadied back above EMA(20) at 0.5622. RSI(14) at 54 sits mid-band, consistent with rotation inside the range rather than a trend.
Support: 0.56219, 0.56163, 0.55789
Resistance: 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5645 week high, which capped both Monday and today, opens last week's 0.5652 prior high
Loss of the 0.5616 NY low and the Wed higher-lows trendline exposes the 50% rebound fib at 0.5612 and the 0.5600 pivot
A break back below the 0.5579 week low would negate the false-break read
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims and Fri 13:30 UTC NFP could materially shift this USD-led read
0.5603–0.5645 weekly range; failed breakdown reversed, lower high at NY open.
NZD/USD ranged 0.5603–0.5645 from Monday's open until the across-the-board miss in NZ Q3 jobs data. That drove a false break to the 0.5579 week low after Tuesday's NY close. The post-midterm USD selloff powered a full reversal through Wednesday's London session, but supply capped price at the 0.5645 week high, matching Monday's peak. A lower high near 0.5643 at the NY open has since pulled price below the rally line toward the 0.5616 NY low, with price now sitting on EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 0.5620 and the 38.2% fib, and RSI(14) back at 50.
Support: 0.56163, 0.5600, 0.55789
Resistance: 0.56315, 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.5616 NY low exposes the 50% fib at 0.5612 and the 0.5600 psych pivot
Failure to hold 0.5600 psych puts the 0.5579 week low and the false-break extreme back in play
Reclaim of the 0.5632 tue high needed to retest the 0.5645 week high; a close above that cap opens the 0.5652 prior wk hi
Thu 13:30 UTC jobless claims/ULC and Fed's Hammack, then Fri NFP, could materially shift this read
16:04 UTC
Range-bound, recovered from a false break lower · RSI 55 · price 0.56255
0.5603–0.5645 range; break below the range low fully reclaimed, lower high under the week high.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5603–0.5645 range since Monday. The dismal NZ Q3 jobs report knocked it to a 0.5579 week low after Tuesday's NY close, but the move reversed fully through Asia and London today, leaving a false break of the range low as the post-midterm USD dip helped the rebound. The London rally stalled at 0.5645, matching Monday's week high, and a lower high at 0.5643 into the NY open preceded a pullback that is holding the ema20 and the 38.2% rebound fib near 0.5620, with price back at the 0.5626 weekly open and RSI(14) easing to the mid-50s from about 65.
Support: 0.5620, 0.56025, 0.55789
Resistance: 0.56425, 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5645 week high, then the 0.5652 prior high, would break the range top
Loss of the ema20 / 38.2% rebound fib at 0.5620 puts the 0.5603 range low back in focus
Return below the 0.5579 week low would negate the false break
US Jobless Claims and Fed's Hammack Thu 13:30–13:50 UTC, then NFP Fri 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Range-bound, rebound stalling at week high · RSI 58 · price 0.56266
0.5600–0.5645 range; false break to 0.5579 reclaimed, rejection at range top.
The week has held a 0.5600–0.5645 range. The NZ Q3 jobs miss late Tuesday drove a false break to the 0.5579 week low, and that move was fully reclaimed through Asia and London on Wednesday's USD selloff. Wednesday's rebound stalled at 0.5645 in London, matching Monday's week high. The post-ADP USD recovery in NY then pulled price below the rebound line toward EMA(20) near 0.5620, with RSI(14) cooling to around 58.
Support: 0.5620, 0.5600, 0.55789
Resistance: 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.5645 week high, and then the 0.5652 prior high, would break the range top
Failure to hold EMA(20) near 0.5620 exposes the 0.5600 psych level, close to the 61.8% retracement of Wednesday's rebound
A move back below the 0.5579 week low would turn the false break into a lower low
US ISM Services PMI (f/c 54.8) at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
False break below range, V-recovery into range top.
The Q3 jobs miss knocked NZDUSD below Tuesday's 0.5603 low to a 0.5579 week low just after 21:45 UTC. The break failed to hold, and the post-midterm USD selloff carried price back above the 0.5600 round number and EMA(20) through the Asia and London sessions. Price is now pressing the 0.5645 range top, which capped Monday's London session and rejected today's 10:00 UTC high, with RSI(14) near 68 and higher lows stacked along the rebound trendline.
Support: 0.5620, 0.5600, 0.55789
Resistance: 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5645 range top, then the 0.5652 prior high, breaks the week's range ceiling
Loss of the rebound trendline and EMA(20) near 0.5620, which coincides with the 38.2% rebound fib, puts the false-break recovery in question
A return below the 0.5600 round number reopens the 0.5579 week low
US S&P Global PMI at 14:45 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.8) could materially shift this read
False break below range reclaimed; capped at equal highs.
NZD/USD held a 0.5603–0.5646 range Monday and Tuesday, then broke lower after Tuesday's NY close when the weak NZ Q3 jobs report pushed it to a week low at 0.5579. A broad post-midterm USD selloff reversed the break through Asia and into the London open. Price is back above the weekly open and the EMA(20)/EMA(50), which converge near 0.5618, and RSI(14) has recovered to ~62. Rejection at the 0.5646 equal highs, which matches Monday's London peak, has capped the rebound so far, just below Friday's high at 0.5652.
Support: 0.56255, 0.56025, 0.55789
Resistance: 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.56455 equal highs breaks the range top and brings the 0.56516 friday high and 0.5650 into play
Failure to hold the 0.56255 weekly open exposes the EMA(20)/EMA(50) and 38.2% retracement of the week low rebound near 0.5618–0.5620
A move back below the 0.56025 range low, and through the higher lows trendline, undermines the false-break read
Loss of the 0.55789 week low would resume the post-jobs breakdown toward the 0.5560/0.5564 area flagged in the digest
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read; a USD recovery would test the reclaim
12:03 UTC
Range-bound, rebound stalling at week high · RSI 57 · price 0.56275
NZDUSD has held a 0.5603–0.5645 range since Monday. Tuesday's dismal NZ Q3 jobs report produced a false break to a 0.5579 week low, which was fully reclaimed as the post-midterm USD selloff carried through Wednesday's London session. That rally hit the 0.56455 week high for a second time this week and was rejected there. Price has slipped back to the 0.5626 weekly open. It is still above EMA(20) near 0.5615, with RSI(14) easing from ~63 to 57, and the rebound line off the jobs-data low sits beneath alongside the 50–61.8% fib zone at 0.5612–0.5604.
Support: 0.56255, 0.56154, 0.55789
Resistance: 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read during NY hours
An H1 close above the 0.56455 week high, then last week's 0.5652 prior high, breaks the range top and the double-rejection read
Loss of the weekly open and EMA(20) near 0.5615 puts the rebound line and the 0.5600 round number in focus
A move back below the 0.5579 week low turns Tuesday's false break into a lower-low
11:03 UTC
V-shaped rebound, stalling at week high · RSI 63 · price 0.56307
False break below 0.5603, back inside 0.5603–0.5645 range.
The Q3 jobs miss knocked the pair from 0.5610 to a 0.5579 week low late in Tuesday's NY hours, a brief false break below the Monday-Tuesday floor. The post-midterm USD selloff then drove a steady climb of higher lows through Wednesday's Asian range and London open, reclaiming the week open and ema20. The London rally stalled at 0.5645, a second rejection at Monday's week high, with RSI(14) easing to about 63.
Support: 0.56255, 0.5612, 0.55789
Resistance: 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5645 week high clears the two-touch cap and exposes the 0.5652 prior high
Loss of the 0.5626 week open shifts focus to ema20 near 0.5612, the 50% level of the rebound fib
A break of the rebound line and 0.5603 puts the 0.5579 week low back in view
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read
False break below 0.5603–0.5646 range reclaimed, now testing range top.
The Q3 NZ jobs miss knocked NZD/USD through the 0.5603 range low late Tuesday to 0.5579. A broad USD selloff on the midterm result then drove a V-shaped reclaim through Asia and into London open. Price is back above the weekly open and EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 65, and is pressing the week high at 0.5646 after Tuesday's 0.5632 lower high gave way.
Support: 0.56255, 0.5613, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.5646 week high exposes the 0.5652 prior high from Friday
Rejection at the week high and a slip back below the 0.5626 weekly open return price to the middle of the range
Break of the recovery trendline and loss of EMA(20) near 0.5613 would put the 0.5603 range low back in focus
Holding above the 50% of the jobs-low rally keeps the false-break read intact
V-shaped reclaim of the 0.5603-0.5632 range after post-data flush to 0.5579.
After Monday's London push to the 0.5646 mon high faded, the pair held a 0.5603-0.5632 range through Tuesday. The across-the-board NZ Q3 jobs miss then knocked price through the tue low to a 0.5579 data low late in the NY session. The USD selloff after the Democratic sweep has since driven a full reclaim through the Asian session and into London, putting price back above both EMAs and above the 61.8% fib of the Monday-high-to-data-low drop. Price now sits at the 0.5626 weekly open, just under the 0.5628 session high, with the tue high at 0.5632 capping above and RSI(14) back near 58.
Support: 0.5620, 0.56025, 0.55789
Resistance: 0.56283, 0.56315, 0.56455
What it said to watch
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.5632 tue high would extend the false break into a range break, opening the 0.5646 mon high
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 0.5620 and a break of the recovery higher lows would return focus to the 0.5603 tue low
A return below 0.5603 would reopen the 0.5579 data low and void the false-break read
08:03 UTC
Lower highs all week, sharp rebound off the low · RSI 56 · price 0.56232
V-shaped recovery from a false break, now testing the lower-highs line.
The week has printed lower highs from Monday's London week high at 0.5646 through Tuesday's 0.5631 tue high. The NZ Q3 jobs miss late in Tuesday's NY session drove a false break of the 0.5603 range floor to a 0.5579 week low. A USD-led bounce through Asia, on the post-midterm dollar selloff, has retraced about 70% of the week's decline and put price back above EMA(20) at 0.5608 and EMA(50) near 0.5615. Price is now pressing the weekly open at 0.5626, where the lower-highs line from Monday also converges, with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5600, 0.5579
Resistance: 0.5626, 0.5631, 0.5646
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.5631 tue high would break the lower-highs sequence and expose the 0.5646 week high
Rejection at the 0.5626 weekly open, followed by a loss of the ema20 and the 0.5600 psych level, would put the 0.5579 week low back in play
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) today could materially shift this read via the USD leg
Lower highs since Monday's London high, lower low on the jobs miss, now retracing.
The week opened at 0.5626, and Monday's London week high at 0.5646 was rejected. Each rally since has printed a lower high, with Tuesday's NY lower high at 0.5631. The weak NZ Q3 jobs report hit late Tuesday after the NY close and knocked the pair to a 0.5579 jobs low. The broad USD selloff on the midterm results then lifted it back above the 0.5600 round number during Asia. Price is now pressing the 61.8% retrace of the jobs-drop fib near 0.5611, just under the 0.5613 Asia high. It sits marginally above EMA(20) and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 48 and no clear momentum edge.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5591, 0.55789
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.5631, 0.56455
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5613 Asia high and the 61.8% retrace opens the 0.5631 lower high and the lower-highs trendline
Loss of the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5591 higher low puts the 0.5579 jobs low back in play
Break below the 0.5579 jobs low confirms a fresh lower-low in the downtrend
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD leg
Lower highs and lower lows all week; post-jobs range break, now a corrective higher low.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's London-session week high at 0.5646. The across-the-board NZ Q3 jobs miss after Tuesday's NY close broke the 0.5603–0.5646 range down to a 0.5579 week low. The broad USD selloff on the midterm results lifted the pair through the Asia session to a 0.5613 rebound high at the 50% retracement, and a higher low at 0.5591 has formed since; price now sits on EMA(20) and the 38.2% level around the 0.5600 round number, below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 45. Above, the weekly open at 0.5626 and the lower-highs trendline still cap.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5591, 0.5579
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.5626, 0.5646
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5591 higher low exposes the 0.5579 week low
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number keeps the post-jobs lows in focus
Close above the 0.5613 rebound high (50% fib) brings the 0.5626 weekly open and lower-highs trendline into play; 0.5646 week high above
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and ISM Services at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
05:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through the week · RSI 39 · price 0.5596
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; post-jobs bounce capped below 0.5613.
The week opened at 0.5626, and every rally since has set a lower high. Monday's London peak was 0.5646, Tuesday's NY high 0.5631, and the NZ Q3 jobs miss after the NY close knocked price through the week's lows to the 0.5579 jobs low. The Asia-session rebound on a softer USD after early midterm results stalled at the 0.5613 rebound high, near the 61.8% of the jobs leg. Price has slipped back under the 0.5600 round number and sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.5591, 0.5579
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5613, 0.5626
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5613 rebound high and the jobs-leg 61.8% fib would break the lower-high sequence and put the 0.5626 weekly open back in play
Failure to hold the Asian session low at 0.5591 exposes the 0.5579 jobs low; a break there confirms another lower-low
Repeated H1 closes below the 0.5600 round number keep the bounce contained below the lower-highs trendline
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Senate race calls in the midterms could swing the USD side of the pair through the NY session
Lower highs and lower lows; Asia bounce rejected near the 50% retrace.
The pair has printed lower highs all week: 0.5652 on Friday, 0.5646 at Monday's London open and 0.5632 on Tuesday, while the weekly open at 0.5626 failed to hold. Late Tuesday the Q3 jobs miss pushed price through Tuesday's 0.5603 low to a 0.5579 week low. A softer USD on midterm tallies lifted it to 0.5613 in the Asian session, near the 50% retrace of the jobs drop fib. That bounce high was rejected and price is back below EMA(20) at 0.5604, with RSI(14) at 37.
Support: 0.5579, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5604, 0.5613, 0.5626
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5613 bounce high and the lower highs trendline would break the sequence and bring the 0.5626 weekly open into view
Failure to hold the 0.5579 week low extends the lower-low structure toward the 0.5550 Oct 14 low
Repeated H1 closes back above the ema20 near 0.5600 would point to the bounce gaining traction rather than fading
US ADP (13:15 UTC), ISM Services (15:00 UTC) and Senate control calls could materially shift this read via the USD leg
Monday–Tuesday held a 0.5603–0.5646 range, but each high faded: the week high at 0.5646 in Monday's London session, then the 0.5631 Tuesday high twice in London and NY. Late Tuesday the across-the-board NZ Q3 jobs miss broke the range floor to a week low of 0.5579. Early-Wednesday USD selling on midterm tallies drove an Asia-session rebound to a 0.5613 bounce high, near the 61.8% retrace of the drop, and price has slipped back to the 0.5600 psych handle below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55789
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.56315, 0.56455
What it said to watch
Hourly closes below the 0.5600 psych handle put the 0.5579 week low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
A move back above the 0.5613 bounce high and the 0.5631 Tuesday high would neutralise the range-break read
Only a recovery through the 0.5646 week high breaks the lower-highs trendline from Monday
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC), plus midterm House/Senate calls, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday; Mon-Tue range broken lower, retesting 0.5600.
Since the 0.5626 weekly open, the pair has printed lower highs from Monday's London spike to 0.5646. After NY close yesterday, the across-the-board NZ Q3 jobs miss broke the Monday–Tuesday floor and set a 0.5579 week low. A softer USD on early midterm tallies lifted price to a 0.5613 bounce high near the 50% retracement of the week's drop, but it has stalled back at the 0.5600 psych level, just under EMA(20) near 0.5607.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5579, 0.5555
Resistance: 0.5607, 0.5613, 0.56255
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.5600 psych exposes the 0.5579 week low, then the 0.5555 Oct 14 low area
Reclaim of EMA(20) and the 0.5613 bounce high opens a test of the 0.5626 weekly open and the lower-highs line
US ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC), plus final midterm calls, could materially shift this read
0.5603–0.5645 range broken lower; rebound capped at 0.5600.
Monday's London-open push to 0.5645 set the week high. Every bounce since has printed a lower high under the weekly open, while lows held 0.5603–0.5610 through Tuesday's NY session. The 21:45 UTC NZ Q3 jobs miss (employment -0.1%, unemployment 5.7%) broke that range floor in a single 30-pip bar to a 0.5579 week low. The Asia rebound retraced only about a third of the Monday-high-to-week-low leg before stalling at the 0.5600 round number. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) back to about 37 from sub-30.
Support: 0.55789, 0.5555
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56255, 0.56455
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5600 round number reopens the old range toward the 0.5626 weekly open
Close above the lower-highs trendline, near the weekly open, invalidates the descending structure
Failure to hold the 0.5579 week low exposes the Oct 14 low near 0.5555
US midterm calls through Asia/London, then ADP (13:15 UTC) and ISM Services (15:00 UTC) Wednesday, could materially shift this read
Monday's 0.5645 week high remains the upper bound of the broken range
00:03 UTC
Downtrend, range broken lower · RSI 36 · price 0.55916
Lower highs; range floor lost on jobs data.
NZDUSD held a 0.5603–0.5646 range from Monday's open, printing lower highs off Monday's London-session peak at 0.5646. Late in NY hours, the Q3 NZ jobs miss (unemployment 5.7% vs 5.5%, employment -0.1%) broke the range floor and set a week low at 0.5579. The rebound stalled at the 0.5600 psych level, leaving price below EMA(20) near 0.5608 and well under the 0.5626 weekly open, with RSI(14) recovering only to the mid-30s.
Support: 0.55789, 0.5567
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56025, 0.56255
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.56025 range floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5579 week low exposes the 0.5567 YTD low
The lower-highs trendline from Monday's 0.5646 high has capped rebounds; a break above it would challenge the weekly open
US midterm results overnight and Wednesday's ADP/ISM Services could materially shift this read
The bounce sits between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the week drop; holding below 38.2% keeps the impulse intact