NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 6 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Uptrend stalled, flat range · RSI 47 · price 0.56226
Tight 0.5621–0.5628 range below day high.
Tuesday's London rally from 0.5589 ran through NY as the USD eased off its highs. Price has been boxed in a 0.5621–0.5628 range since mid-NY, with three rejections at the 0.5628 day high. Early Asia has already recovered the rollover dip to 0.5614, which held near the 38.2% fib of the London rally.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56135
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5628 day high breaks the range and brings the 0.5630 round number into play
Failure at the 0.5621 range floor reopens the 0.5614 rollover low / 38.2% fib
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 0.5589, now a tight range below the 0.5628 twin highs.
NZD/USD stepped up in higher lows from the 0.5589 London-open low to the 0.5628 ny high as the USD faded, and twin highs at 0.5628 capped NY. Early Asia has recovered from the rollover gap low at 0.5614, which held near the 38.2% fib of the 0.5589–0.5628 leg. Price is now coiling just under the 0.5626 asia high, with RSI(14) neutral at 53 and ATR(14) near 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56135
Resistance: 0.56264, 0.56282, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5628 ny high clears the twin highs and opens the 0.5630 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5621 ny swing low turns the read into a range back toward the 0.5614 gap low
Rejection again at the 0.5626 asia high keeps price boxed inside the 0.5621–0.5628 range
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and RBNZ's Breman Thu 08:00 GMT are the next event risks; no scheduled data before London
Tight range below session high, rollover gap filled.
London swept below the Asian range to 0.5589, then rallied through the asian high as the USD eased. Price has been boxed between the 0.5621 range low and the 0.56282 session high since mid-NY, sitting just over 0.5626 resistance. The rollover gap to the 0.56135 gap low filled within the hour, and that low lines up with the 38.2% retrace of the London rally fib.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56135, 0.56059
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56282 session high breaks the range and brings the 0.5650 pivot into view
Loss of the 0.5621 range low reopens the 0.56135 gap low, the 38.2% retrace of the London rally
Back below the 0.5606 asian high would unwind the day's breakout
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD catalyst for this range
Tight 0.5621–0.5628 consolidation after London break of Asian range.
Yesterday's early dip below the Asian range low to 0.5589 failed. London then broke the Asian high, and a softer USD carried NY to a 0.5628 session high that was tested twice. Price has since drifted inside 0.5621–0.5628 in early Asia session. The thin rollover spike to the 0.5614 rollover low, at the 38.2% fib of the 0.5589–0.5628 leg, was fully retraced.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56135, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5628 session high breaks the consolidation; 0.5630 round number sits just above
Loss of the 0.5621 swing low exposes the 0.5614 rollover low / 38.2% fib
Below 0.5614 the psych 0.5600 area comes back into view
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and RBNZ Breman Thu 08:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 0.5589, tight 0.5621–0.5628 box under day high.
London broke the Asian range high near 0.5606, then cleared the 0.5610 london high. NY extended to a 0.5628 day high as the USD faded, with each pullback forming a higher low. Since NY, price has stalled in a 0.5621–0.5628 box near the digest's 0.5626 resistance, and the rollover dip to 0.5614 held at the ny pullback low, around the 38.2% fib of the london-ny leg, before recovering.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56143, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5628 day high opens the 0.5630 round number and the 0.5650 area
Loss of the 0.5621 swing low exposes the 0.5614 ny pullback low and the 38.2% fib of the london-ny leg
A break back below the 0.5610 london high would erase most of the London-NY advance
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) and Breman (Thu 08:00 GMT) are the next scheduled events that could shift this read
22:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 54 · price 0.5626
HH/HL chain off 0.5589 low; twin cap at 0.5628, higher low at 0.5621.
London broke the Asian high at 0.5606 as US yields eased, and NY extended to a session high at 0.5628 that capped a second test late in NY. The rollover gap down to the 0.5614 gap low has been fully retraced, and price is retesting the session high in thin early Asia session trade with ATR near 2.7 pips.
Support: 0.5621, 0.5614, 0.5606
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5628 session high breaks the twin-top cap and opens the 0.5650 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.5621 pullback low exposes the 0.5614 gap low near the 38.2% fib of the London-NY rally
Loss of the 0.5606 Asian high, the London breakout level, negates the intraday higher-low structure
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and RBNZ's Breman Thu 08:00 UTC are the next event risks for this read
22:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalled under session high · RSI 53 · price 0.56247
London HH/HL leg from 0.5589, NY-session range 0.5621–0.5628.
NZD/USD climbed ~39 pips off the 0.5589 low through London as the USD eased with lower yields, then stalled under the 0.5628 session high in a 0.5621–0.5628 range through NY hours. The rollover gap down to the 0.5614 rollover low, which sits near the 38.2% fib, has been filled in early Asia, and price is back at the upper half of the range.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56135
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5621 NY low exposes the 0.5614 rollover low and 38.2% fib
M15 close above the 0.5628 session high breaks the range top, with the 0.5650 round number next
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and RBNZ Governor Breman Thu 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL from the 0.5589 low into a 0.5621–0.5628 consolidation, rollover gap nearly filled.
NZDUSD climbed about 39 pips from the 0.5589 pre-London low to a 0.5628 session high as the USD eased with lower Treasury yields. The 0.5628 high capped twice during NY hours. A thin rollover gap down to the 0.56135 gap low held right at the 38.2% fib and has almost closed, leaving price consolidating just above the 0.5621 swing low.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56135, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56282 session high resumes the HH chain, with the 0.5650 psych level the next reference
Failure to hold the 0.5621 swing low puts the gap low and 38.2% fib at 0.56135 back in play
A break of the gap low exposes the 0.5610 london high as the next pivot
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next USD catalyst; the thin Asia session may keep ranges near ATR
Rally from 0.5589 capped at 0.5628; rollover gap to 0.5614.
NZD climbed off the 0.5589 asia low as the USD faded and broke the 0.5610 london high. NY then stalled in a 0.5621–0.5628 range, with three rejections at the 0.5628 session high. The rollover gap printed 0.56135, right at the 38.2% level of the rally fib, and the new Asia session is holding below the 0.5622 gap fill.
Support: 0.56135, 0.5610, 0.5589
Resistance: 0.56222, 0.56282
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5613 gap low and the 38.2% rally fib exposes the 0.5610 london high
Reclaiming 0.5622 fills the gap and brings the 0.5628 session high (near 0.5626 resistance) back into view
Thin rollover/early Asia liquidity makes the gap a less reliable signal than a London-hours move
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift USD tone
21:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, early Asia pullback · RSI 35 · price 0.56162
Rally capped by double top at 0.5628, rollover gap lower to 38.2% fib.
London and NY lifted NZDUSD off the 0.5589 pre-London low to a 0.5628 day high as the USD faded, but a double top there saw rejection through late NY, near the 0.5626 resistance the digest flags. The rollover gap has dropped price to the 0.5614 swing low, at the 38.2% retracement of the rally, with price below EMA20 and RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 0.56135, 0.5610, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56222, 0.56282
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5614 swing low exposes the 0.5610 breakout lvl, which sits near the 50% retracement of the rally
A gap close back above 0.5622 restores the NY range, with the 0.5628 day high above
A move below the 0.5610 breakout lvl brings the 0.5600 round number into view
Thin early Asia session after the rollover gap; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke the Asian range high, NY set a 0.5628 day high; rollover gap lower to 0.5614.
London lifted NZDUSD through the asian high at 0.5606 and NY extended to a 0.5628 day high as the USD faded with easing yields, before price stalled in a 0.5621–0.5628 consolidation. A thin-liquidity rollover gap has dropped price to the 0.5614 swing low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the rally, with RSI(14) near 33 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56135, 0.5610, 0.56059
Resistance: 0.56222, 0.56282
What it said to watch
A close back above 0.5622 fills the gap and puts the day high at 0.5628 back in view
Failure to hold the 0.5614 swing low exposes the 0.5610 breakout lvl and the 50% fib near 0.5609
A slide back under the 0.5606 asian high would undo the London breakout
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC sit beyond this window but could materially shift USD tone
21:06 UTC
Uptrend from London low, stalling late NY · RSI 47 · price 0.56222
HH/HL from 0.5589 to 0.5628, now a tight 0.5621-0.5628 range.
Early London dipped below the Asian range to 0.5589, then a softer USD on cooling yields and oil drove a HH/HL climb through the 0.5606 Asian high to a 0.5628 session high. Late NY has compressed into a 0.5621-0.5628 range with two rejections at the session high, RSI(14) near 47 and ATR down to about 2 pips.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56143, 0.56059
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5621 range low exposes the 0.5614 swing low near the 38.2% fib
Break of the 0.5628 session high after two rejections opens the 0.5650 psych level
Loss of the 0.5606 Asian high would unwind the London-NY advance
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk for this read
London broke the Asian high at 0.5606 and NY carried the London-NY rally to 0.5628 as the USD extended its pullback from its 18-month high. Two tests of the 0.5628 session high since mid-NY have printed a double top, and price now sits on the 0.5621 neckline with RSI(14) neutral near 46, below EMA20 and resting on EMA50.
Support: 0.5621, 0.5614, 0.5606
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5621 neckline confirms the double top and exposes the 0.5614 ny low
Failure to hold 0.5614 opens a deeper retrace toward the 0.5606 asian high
Close above the 0.5628 session high invalidates the double top and opens the 0.5650 half figure
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk; thin Asia session liquidity until then
Higher lows off 0.5589, tight 0.5621–0.5628 range through late NY.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5606 and NY extended the move to a 0.5628 session high, a ~39-pip lift off the 0.5589 day low as the USD eased back below DXY 102.00. Price has since compressed between the 0.5621 range low and the session high, capped three times near 0.5626–0.5628, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR down to ~2.4 pips.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56143, 0.5606
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5628 session high breaks the late-NY cap; the 0.5650 round number is the next reference
Loss of the 0.5621 range low exposes the 0.5614 swing low, near the 38.2% fib of the day-low rally
A return below the 0.5606 asian high would unwind the London breakout
Thin Asia session ahead with no scheduled NZD or USD data; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next USD catalyst
20:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at day high · RSI 54 · price 0.5624
Higher lows from 0.5589, flat top near 0.5628 in late NY.
The London rally off the 0.5589 pre-London low cleared the 0.5606 asian high and stretched to a 0.5628 day high in NY hours as the USD eased with cooling yields. Late NY has gone flat beneath that level after a marginal lower high, with the 0.5621 higher low holding, RSI(14) near 54 and ATR(14) about 2.3 pips.
Support: 0.5621, 0.5614, 0.5606
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5628 day high opens the 0.5650 round number
Loss of the 0.5621 higher low exposes the 0.5614 pullback low and the 38.2% fib of the London-NY rally near 0.5613
A return below the 0.5606 asian high voids the London breakout
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling near session high · RSI 55 · price 0.56241
Asian range broken higher in London; late-NY consolidation 0.5621–0.5628.
NZD cleared the Asian high at 0.5606 in London and climbed off the 0.5589 low to a 0.5628 session high as the USD eased with softer yields. Late NY has compressed into a 0.5621–0.5628 band. Supply capped two tests of the session high, the 0.5621 swing low has held, and RSI(14) sits near 55.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56143, 0.56059
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5628 session high opens the 0.5630 round number
Loss of the 0.5621 swing low exposes the 0.5614 pullback low near the 38.2% fib
Retreat back under the 0.5606 asian high would negate the London breakout
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Uptrend, stalling into late NY · RSI 49 · price 0.56238
HH/HL chain from 0.5589 low; tight range under day high.
NZDUSD rallied from the 0.5589 pre-London low through the 0.5606 Asian high as the USD faded below DXY 102.00, printing a 0.5628 day high mid-NY. A second rejection at the day high has left late NY compressing between the 0.5621 pullback low and 0.5628, with RSI(14) back to neutral near 49 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56143, 0.5606
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5628 day high resumes the HH chain and opens the 0.5650 round number
Break of the 0.5621 pullback low exposes the 0.5614 swing low and the rising trendline
Loss of 0.5614 swing low would break the HL sequence; 38.2% fib sits near 0.5613
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and Breman Thu 08:00 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts
19:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling near session high · RSI 58 · price 0.56253
HH/HL chain since the Asian range break; tight late-NY consolidation.
London broke the 0.5589–0.5606 Asian range to the upside. NY extended the move as the USD faded on lower yields and oil, building higher lows at 0.5614 (swing low) and 0.5621 (higher low) and a session high at 0.5628. Late NY is compressing in a 3-pip band just under that high. RSI(14) is neutral near 58 and ATR is about 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56143, 0.56059
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5628 session high extends the HH chain and brings next res at 0.5650 into view
Break below the 0.5621 higher low ends the HH/HL sequence; the 0.5614 swing low sits near the 38.2% fib
Loss of 0.5606 (asian high) would put price back inside the Asian range and negate the breakout
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk; thin Asia session liquidity until then
19:04 UTC
Uptrend, pausing near session high · RSI 56 · price 0.56266
Higher highs and higher lows from the 0.5589 London low; tight late-NY consolidation 0.5621–0.5628.
Early London dipped below the Asian range to 0.5589, then NZD climbed in a steady higher-high, higher-low chain as the USD eased off its annual highs, clearing the 0.5606 Asian high and printing a 0.5628 session high at the 0.5626 resistance area. Late NY is holding a 0.5621–0.5628 consolidation above the 0.5621 swing low, with buyers defending the rising-lows trendline and RSI(14) back in the mid-50s.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56143, 0.5606
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5628 session high opens the path toward resistance at 0.5650
Loss of the 0.5621 swing low and the rising-lows trendline exposes the 0.5614 higher low and the 38.2% fib of the London-NY rally near 0.5613
A move back below the 0.5606 Asian high would negate the day's range breakout
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) remain the next major USD driver for this read
18:47 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling under day high · RSI 52 · price 0.56243
HH/HL chain since Asian range break; tight consolidation just below 0.5628 in late NY.
London broke above the 0.5589–0.5606 Asian range and NY extended the higher-low chain to a 0.5628 day high as the USD eased with DXY slipping under 102.00. After London close price is compressing under the day high, sitting on rising support from the 0.5614 NY low and the 0.5621 swing low, RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56143, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.56269, 0.56282
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5621 swing low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 0.5628 day high extends the London-NY uptrend; three caps at the 0.5627 lower high point to a stall
Loss of the 0.5614 NY low exposes the 0.5610 London high breakout level
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and RBNZ's Breman Thu 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the 0.5589 Asia low, tight 0.5621–0.5628 range after NY.
London cleared the 0.5589–0.5606 Asian range and NY extended it in a HH/HL chain as the USD eased off Monday's high. Since then the session high at 0.5628 has capped price, with three tops near 0.5627, while the 0.5621 higher low holds above the 0.5614 NY pullback on the rising support line. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR is about 3 pips in thin late-NY trade.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56143, 0.56059
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5628 session high resumes the HH chain and opens the 0.5650 psych level
Break of the 0.5621 higher low and the rising support line turns the range lower toward the 0.5614 NY pullback
Loss of 0.5614 brings the 38.2% fib (~0.5613) and the 0.5606 asian high retest into play
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC; a hawkish read lifting yields could reverse the intraday gain
18:03 UTC
Uptrend, pausing under session high · RSI 64 · price 0.5626
HH/HL chain from the 0.5589 pre-London low; tight consolidation 0.5621–0.5628 after London close.
London broke the Asian range high near 0.5606, and NY extended the leg to a 0.5628 session high as the USD eased off Monday's peak. Since then price has held a shallow pullback to the 0.5621 swing low. It is now pressing the session high, which also marks the 0.5626 resistance flagged in the digest. The rising trendline from the London lows remains intact.
Support: 0.5621, 0.5614
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5628 session high opens the 0.5650 psych level
Break below the 0.5621 swing low and the rising trendline turns the read to a pullback toward the 0.5614 ny low
Loss of the ny low at 0.5614 puts the 38.2% retracement of the london-ny leg near 0.5613 in play
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.5589 London-open low; Asian range broken higher.
The USD pullback on easing oil and yields lifted NZD off the 0.5589 low near London open and through the 0.5606 Asian high, building a clean higher-low chain at 0.5614 and 0.5621 into the 0.5628 session high. After London close, price is back at that high with RSI(14) near 66 and ATR(14) compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56143, 0.56059
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5628 session high opens the path to 0.5650 psych resistance
Break below the 0.5621 swing low dents the higher-low chain; losing the 0.5614 higher low invalidates the intraday uptrend read
A pullback that holds above the 38.2% retrace of the london-ny rally (~0.5613) keeps the advance intact; a slip back under the 0.5606 asian high reopens the prior range
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC (~24h out) is the next scheduled risk that could materially shift this read
NZD broke above the 0.5589–0.5606 Asian range during London and pushed through NY to a 0.5628 session high as the dollar eased off Monday's peak, leaving a 0.5614 swing low as the latest higher low. After London close, price has compressed into a 0.5621 range low / 0.5624 shelf just under the session high, sitting on rising support from the 0.5614 swing low, with RSI(14) neutral near 59.
Support: 0.56206, 0.56143, 0.56059
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5628 session high opens the 0.5630 round number
Close below the 0.5621 range low and rising support breaks the HL chain toward the 0.5614 swing low
Loss of 0.5614 swing low exposes the 0.5606 Asian high as a retest level
US yields and FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) are the next USD driver
Higher lows off the 0.5589 pre-London low; tight pause under the 0.5628 session high.
NZD swept to 0.5589 before London, then broke the Asian high at 0.5606 and ran to a 0.5628 session high in NY as the USD corrected with easing oil and yields. Late NY is holding a 0.5621 late low just under the 0.5626–0.5628 cap, and RSI(14) has cooled to ~61.
Support: 0.5621, 0.5614, 0.5606
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5628 session high opens the 0.5650 resistance
Loss of the 0.5621 late low exposes the 0.5614 swing low, near the 38.2% fib
Break back below the 0.5606 asian high would undo the London breakout
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows off the 0.5589 Asian low; Asian range broken higher.
NZD cleared the 0.5606 Asian range high in London and pressed to a 0.5628 session high in NY as the USD eased with lower yields and oil, building higher highs and higher lows off the 0.5589 low. After London close, price has slipped back onto the ema20 near 0.5621 with RSI(14) cooled to ~56. The 0.5614 swing low is the nearest higher low.
Support: 0.5621, 0.56143, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5614 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5610 london high and the 38.2% fib near 0.5613
Close above the 0.5628 session high extends the sequence toward the 0.5630 psych level
Thin post-London trade into Asia; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD catalyst
HH/HL chain from London low; shallow pullback after NY high.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5606 and NY extended to a session high at 0.56282 as a softer USD, with DXY back below 102.00 on easing oil and yields, lifted the Kiwi through the 0.5626 area. After London close price has eased to 0.5622 with RSI(14) cooling to ~55, still above the 0.5614 higher low near the 38.2% of the London-NY rally fib.
Support: 0.56214, 0.56143, 0.5606
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56282 session high resumes the HH chain, with the 0.5650 round number the next reference
Failure to hold the 0.5621 pullback low exposes the 0.5614 higher low; a break there ends the HH/HL sequence
Loss of the 0.5606 Asian high, near the 61.8% of the rally fib, would put price back inside the Asian range
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and US 10y yield moves could materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 54 · price 0.56225
Higher-high chain from 0.5589; NY pullback holding above 0.5615 swing low.
Early-Europe dip below the Asian range to 0.5589 reversed. London cleared the 0.5606 Asian high and the london high at 0.5610 as the USD eased off its highs, and NY stretched the higher-high chain to a 0.5628 session high before a rejection just above the 0.5626 area. Late-NY pullback low sits at 0.5621 with RSI(14) cooled to the mid-50s, still above the rising support line and the 0.5615 swing low.
Support: 0.56214, 0.56145, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5628 session high extends the higher-high sequence; 0.5650 psych is the next cap
Failure to hold the 0.5621 pullback low exposes the 0.5615 swing low; a close beneath it breaks the higher-low chain
Break of the rising support line from 0.5589 shifts the read toward a deeper fib retracement into the 0.5610 london high
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
16:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 64 · price 0.56247
HH/HL chain since the early-Europe low, holding above the Asian range.
Kiwi bounced off the 0.5589 early-Europe low, cleared the 0.5606 Asian high during London and pushed to a 0.5628 session high in NY as USD eased with yields. Higher lows near 0.5614 hold, and the ema20 sits just below at 0.5621. Price is now pausing at the 0.5626–0.5628 resistance zone with RSI(14) at 64, firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.5621, 0.5614, 0.5606
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5614 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and puts the 38.2% retrace of the london-ny rally in play
Sustained trade above the 0.5628 session high clears 0.5626 resistance, with the 0.5650 cap next
Loss of the 0.5606 Asian high would hand back the breakout
Calendar clear for the next 8h; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
HH/HL chain from the pre-London low; Asian high broken in London, NY extending to new session high.
NZDUSD has printed higher lows since the 0.5589 pre-London low. London took out the 0.5606 Asian high, and NY pushed to a 0.5628 session high as DXY held below 102.00 on easing yields. Price is now pressing the 0.5626 resistance flagged in the macro read, RSI(14) near 70, with the 0.5614 swing low anchoring the rising trendline.
Support: 0.56253, 0.56143, 0.56059
Resistance: 0.56278, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.5625 prior high keeps the HH/HL chain intact; a slip back below exposes the 0.5614 swing low and rising trendline
M15 close below the 0.5614 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and reopens the 0.5606 Asian high
Acceptance above the 0.5628 session high opens the path to the 0.5650 psych level
London close in the next bar, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could shift this read; 38.2% fib of the pre-London leg sits near 0.5613
HH/HL chain after breaking above the Asian range; testing the session high.
NZD recovered from the early-Europe dip to 0.5589, cleared the 0.5593–0.5606 Asian range and the 0.5610 prior high late in London as DXY slipped below 102.00 on easing yields. NY session has held a higher swing low at 0.5614 and pushed to a new session high at 0.5627, pressing the 0.5626 resistance zone with RSI(14) near 64, not stretched.
Support: 0.56143, 0.5610, 0.5606
Resistance: 0.56269, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5627 session high clears the 0.5626 resistance zone, with 0.5650 the next cap
Break below the 0.5614 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5610 prior high and the 38.2% fib near 0.5612
Loss of the 0.5606 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the breakout read
A renewed rise in US 10-year yields could reverse the NY gains ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Minutes
HH/HL chain from the 0.5589 early-Europe low; NY printing a new session high.
NZDUSD has climbed off the 0.5589 early-Europe low, clearing the Asian high at 0.5606 and the 0.5610 breakout level as the USD eased with Treasury yields. The 0.5614 swing low held through the London-NY transition, and NY is now testing the 0.5626 session high with RSI(14) near 64, not stretched.
Support: 0.56145, 0.5610, 0.5606
Resistance: 0.56257, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5626 session high extends the higher-high chain, with the 0.5650 round number next
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.5614 swing low would end the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 0.5610 breakout level, then the 0.5606 Asian high, would put price back inside the earlier range
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) sit outside this window but frame the USD-yield driver behind the move
Higher lows since 06:00 UTC; NY holding a 0.5614–0.5625 range.
London broke the Asian range high near 0.5606 and pushed through the 0.5610 london high. The higher lows carried the rally to a 0.5625 session high in the first hour of NY, as easing US yields pulled the dollar off its highs. NY has since held between the 0.5614 ny low and the session high, and the post-Bowman bar pressed back toward the top. RSI(14) is near 64, not stretched.
Support: 0.56143, 0.5610, 0.5603
Resistance: 0.56253, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5625 session high opens the path toward the 0.5650 prior cap
Loss of the 0.5614 ny low breaks the higher lows and exposes the 0.5610 london high
Break below the 0.5603 swing low returns price to the Asian range and unwinds most of the London rally
London close within the hour, and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since early Europe; tight consolidation 0.5614–0.5625.
An early-Europe false break below the Asian range low near 0.5593 was reversed. London then lifted through the asian high at 0.5606 as US yields eased, and the first hour of NY printed a 0.5625 session high. Since then price has held a 0.5614–0.5625 box with the intraday low repeatedly defended and the higher-low trendline intact; RSI(14) is neutral near 57.
Support: 0.56145, 0.5610, 0.56059
Resistance: 0.56253, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5614 intraday low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5610 round number / 38.2% fib
Loss of the higher-low trendline and the asian high at 0.5606 would unwind the London leg toward the 61.8% fib near 0.5603
A close above the 0.5625 session high reopens the path toward the 0.5650 round number
Bowman speaking now (14:45 UTC) could move USD and shift this read
Higher-low chain since early London, tight consolidation 0.5614–0.5625 in early NY.
Early London swept below the Asian low to 0.5589, then built higher lows. The pair broke the 0.5610 prior high late in London as USD eased on lower yields and peaked at the 0.5625 session high. Early NY is holding a 0.5614–0.5625 box, with lows riding the rising trendline under a 0.5620 lower high.
Support: 0.5614, 0.5610, 0.5603
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.56253
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline near 0.5614 and the 0.5610 prior high (38.2% of the London leg) shifts the read to a deeper pullback
Clearing the 0.5620 lower high and 0.5625 session high resumes the higher-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5603 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain from 0.5589 day low; Asian range broken higher, tight 0.5614–0.5625 hold into NY.
London cleared the 0.5606 asian high and extended to a 0.56253 session high into the NY open as easing US yields weighed on the dollar. The first NY dip held the 0.56143 pullback low, a third touch of the rising trendline off the 0.5589 day low; RSI(14) near 64 is not stretched.
Support: 0.56143, 0.5606, 0.5589
Resistance: 0.56253, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56143 pullback low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.5606 asian high (61.8% fib zone just below)
Close above the 0.56253 session high clears the 0.5626 resistance and opens the 0.5650 psych level
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger risk
14:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 59 · price 0.5616
HH/HL chain from the 0.5589 Asian low; first pullback testing the latest higher low.
The London leg built higher lows off the 0.5589 Asian low. A break of the 0.5610 prior high carried to a 0.5625 session high early in NY hours as the USD eased on lower yields. That high was rejected, and price is now sitting on the 0.5614 pullback low near the 23.6% fib, still above EMA20.
Support: 0.56143, 0.5610, 0.5603
Resistance: 0.56253, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5614 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5610 prior high / 38.2% fib
Loss of the 0.5603 swing low (61.8% fib) invalidates the London leg uptrend read
Close above the 0.5625 session high reopens the path toward the 0.5650 psych level
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read; FOMC Minutes follow Wed 18:00 UTC
13:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 61 · price 0.56148
Higher-high/higher-low chain since the 0.5589 low at 06:00 UTC; price now testing the latest higher low at 0.5615.
London broke the Asian high at 0.5606 around 11:00 UTC as the USD eased with softer yields, and the NY open printed a 0.5625 session high before a rejection. Price has pulled back 10 pips to the 0.5615 higher low, sitting just above EMA20 at 0.5613 with RSI(14) cooling to 61, and the fib 38.2 of the 06:00–13:00 UTC leg sits at 0.5611.
Support: 0.56146, 0.56115, 0.5606
Resistance: 0.56253, 0.5650
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5615 higher low would print the first lower low of the move, exposing the fib 38.2 at 0.5611 and the rising trendline near 0.5610
A return below the asian high at 0.5606 would turn the London breakout into a false break
A close above the 0.5625 session high reopens the path toward the next cap at 0.5650
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could shift the USD tone within the hour; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger event risk
Higher highs and higher lows since the 06:00 UTC low; Asian range broken to the upside.
London broke the Asian high at 0.5606 and cleared the 0.5610 breakout level as USD eased with softer Treasury yields. The move printed a 0.56253 session high in the first hour of NY, just under the 0.5626 resistance the digest flags. The higher-low chain is intact, the swing low sits at 0.56146 and RSI(14) is near 69, warm but not stretched.
Support: 0.56146, 0.5610, 0.56059
Resistance: 0.56253, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56146 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.5610 breakout level and the London trendline near 0.5606 would put price back at the Asian high, also the 50% intraday fib
Acceptance above the 0.56253 session high clears the 0.5626 cap and opens the 0.5650 half figure
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could shift USD and yields and change this read
13:18 UTC
Uptrend, extended into session high · RSI 73 · price 0.56219
HH/HL chain off early-Europe low; Asian range broken higher in London.
After a dip to 0.5589 in early Europe, the London rally cleared the Asian high at 0.5606 and the 0.5610 prior high. It printed a 0.5625 session high just under the 0.5626 resistance flagged in the digest, with the swing low at 0.5615 and rising support holding the higher-low chain. RSI(14) near 73 with the USD off its highs; the move is stretched but not extreme.
Support: 0.56146, 0.5610, 0.56059
Resistance: 0.56253, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5625 session high exposes the 0.5650 round number
Break below the 0.5615 swing low and rising support ends the higher-low chain; the 0.5610 prior high is the next shelf
Loss of the 0.5606 Asian high negates the London breakout and the London rally fib comes into play
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since 06:15 UTC low; Asian range broken higher in London.
London cleared the Asian range high near 0.5606 and extended a HH/HL chain to a 0.5621 session high, lifting the pair off Monday's YTD-low area as USD eased from its highs. Into early NY, price is consolidating just under the session high, with the 0.5615 swing low sitting on the rising trendline and 0.5626 key res overhead.
Support: 0.5615, 0.5606, 0.5602
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5621 session high exposes 0.5626 key res
Loss of the 0.5615 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the HL chain; the 0.5606 Asian high then becomes the retest zone, near the 38.2-50% of the London leg fib
A break below the 0.5602 London low would undo the London breakout
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift USD during NY hours
Higher lows since early London; Asian range broken higher, tight consolidation at highs.
London swept the Asian low to 0.5589, then broke the Asian high at 0.5606 and extended to a session high at 0.5621, a bounce against the heavy NZD / firm USD backdrop. Early NY is holding a tight 0.5615–0.5621 band above the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) cooled to ~63 and the 0.5610 break level and 38.2% fib below.
Support: 0.56146, 0.5610, 0.5606
Resistance: 0.56213, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5615 pullback low exposes the 0.5610 break level and 38.2% fib
Loss of rising support and the 0.5606 Asian high would negate the breakout read
Close above the 0.5621 session high opens the 0.5626 swing res
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields
Higher highs and higher lows from the 06:00 UTC low, now above the Asian range.
A 06:00 UTC dip below the Asian range to a 0.5589 session low reversed. London then cleared the 0.5606 Asian high, and an 11:15 UTC breakout through 0.5610 tagged a 0.5621 session high as the USD eased off its 18-month peak. Price is stalling just under that high in the first hour of NY, with RSI(14) cooling to about 65. The 0.5610 breakout level and the 38.2% fib overlap just below.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5606, 0.5589
Resistance: 0.56213, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5621 session high opens the 0.5626 resistance
Close back below the 0.5606 asian high returns price to the overnight range and negates the breakout
Break of the rising trendline from the 0.5589 session low marks the end of the London higher-low sequence
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift the USD tone during NY hours; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the larger risk
12:18 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling at session high · RSI 68 · price 0.56167
Higher-low chain from 0.5589 early-Europe low; Asian range high broken in London.
London broke above the 0.5606 Asian high and then cleared the 0.5610 London high into a 0.5621 session high, with the higher-low chain from the 0.5589 low intact. Price is flattening just under 0.5621 into NY, and RSI(14) is near 68. The bounce from near YTD lows runs against a firm USD backdrop.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5606, 0.56023
Resistance: 0.56213, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5610 London high puts the breakout under pressure, with the 0.5606 Asian high next
The 50% retrace of the 0.5589–0.5621 leg sits near the 0.5606 Asian high, an area to watch for support or failure
A break of the 0.5602 swing low and the rising higher-low line ends the intraday uptrend read
Clearance of the 0.5621 session high opens prior resistance at 0.5626
ADP 4-week avg (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift USD and this read
12:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended near session high · RSI 66 · price 0.5618
Higher lows since 0.5589 day low; Asian range broken to the upside.
Pre-London dip below the Asian range to the 0.5589 day low reversed into a London rally that cleared the 0.5606 Asian high and the 0.5610 prior high, extending to a 0.5621 session high on a rising trendline of higher lows despite a firm USD backdrop. Early in the NY session, price is pausing just under 0.5626 resistance with RSI(14) easing from the high 60s.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5606, 0.5589
Resistance: 0.56213, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5610 prior high would put the breakout at risk
Break of the rising trendline near the 0.5606 Asian high ends the higher-low chain
Rejection at 0.5626 resistance caps the London rally; a close above opens 0.5650
Holding above the 0.5621 session high keeps the extension intact
ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC in the first hour of NY could shift the USD read
Failure back through the 0.5589 day low would erase the London rally
11:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending at session high · RSI 71 · price 0.56189
London HH/HL chain, Asian range broken to upside.
The London rally reversed the early dip to 0.5589, building higher lows along rising support and clearing the 0.5606 Asian high and the 0.5610 broken high. Price sits at the 0.5619 session high with RSI(14) near 71. The bounce cuts against the heavy NZD tone as DXY eases from its 18-month high.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5606, 0.5602
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5626
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.5610 broken high keeps the breakout intact; a return below the 0.5606 Asian high would mark a false break
Loss of the 0.5602 higher low breaks the London HH/HL chain and the rising support
0.5619 session high and 0.5626 prior res are the areas to watch for rejection or extension; the 0.5604 midpoint of the London rally is the deeper pullback reference
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) in the first hours of NY could shift this read via US yields
11:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending into late London · RSI 71 · price 0.56155
HH/HL chain from the pre-London low; Asian range high broken.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5606 and extended a higher-high/higher-low chain from the 0.5589 pre-London low to a 0.5617 session high, with RSI(14) near 71. The bounce comes as the USD eased off its 18-month highs overnight, though the NZD backdrop stays heavy near year-to-date lows.
Support: 0.56059, 0.5603, 0.55997
Resistance: 0.56167, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5606 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5603 swing low and the 0.5600 fib 61.8 breaks the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 0.5617 session high opens the 0.5626 resistance
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Williams (13:05) / Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift USD and this read during NY hours
Break of the rising support line from the pre-London low ends the intraday uptrend read
Higher highs and higher lows since the 0.5589 Asian low; Asian range high broken in London.
London open built on the 0.5589 Asian low and broke the Asian high at 0.5606. A higher-low chain at 0.5598, 0.5600 and the 0.5602 swing low now has price retesting the 0.5610 session high, with RSI(14) at 59 and ATR near 4 pips. The trendline off the Asian low holds the London leg, and the round number at 0.5600 sits at the base of the fib.
Support: 0.56059, 0.56023, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5610, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5610 session high opens the path to the 0.5626 prior res cited in the macro read
Loss of the 0.5602 swing low and the London trendline breaks the higher-low chain; 0.5600 round number is next
Slip back below the 0.5606 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC) and Williams (13:05 UTC) into the NY session could shift the USD bid; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC
Higher-low chain from 0.5589 in London; pullback after Asian-high break.
Pre-London dip to the 0.5589 session low was bought. A higher-low chain then carried price through the 0.5606 Asian high to 0.5610, a move that comes after Monday's YTD low with record UST yields still underpinning USD. Mid-London, price is retracing the London leg toward the 38.2% fib near 0.5602, RSI(14) ~53 and just above EMA20.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5593, 0.5589
Resistance: 0.5610, 0.5626
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5600 higher low breaks the London HL chain and exposes the 0.5593 asian low
Close above the 0.5610 session high resumes the leg toward key res at 0.5626
Loss of the 0.5589 session low unwinds the whole London leg
ADP 12:15, Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC can move USD into NY hours
London open dipped below the Asian low to the 0.5589 London low, then reversed and broke the Asian high (0.5606). The move printed higher lows at 0.5598, 0.5600 and 0.5604 along a rising trendline and a 0.5610 session high. Late in London, price is holding just above the Asian high with RSI(14) near 63, and firm US yields have kept the advance shallow. The 50% retrace of the London leg lines up with the 0.5600 swing low.
Support: 0.56059, 0.55997, 0.55892
Resistance: 0.5610, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5606 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Close below the 0.5600 swing low (London leg 50% fib) breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Close above the 0.5610 session high extends the HH chain toward the 0.5626 prior res
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could shift the USD leg into the NY open
London false break below Asian low reversed into range break above Asian high.
Early London dipped through the Asian low at 0.5593 to a London low at 0.5589, then reversed. It built higher highs and higher lows through the Asian high to a 0.5610 session high, with RSI(14) near 63. The bounce runs against a firm, yield-driven USD, with the 0.5600 round number and the rising trendline just under price.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5593, 0.5589
Resistance: 0.5610, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 round number and the rising trendline breaks the London HH/HL chain
Sustained trade above the 0.5610 session high opens the 0.5626 resistance
Return below the 0.5593 asian low turns the range break into a false break
US ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC around the NY open could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London open · RSI 64 · price 0.56063
London swept the Asian low, reversed and broke the Asian high.
London open swept below the Asian range low to 0.5589, then turned up into a chain of higher lows along a rising trendline. Price cleared the Asian high near 0.5606 to a 0.5610 session high, a bounce against a firm USD backdrop driven by record US yields.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5589
Resistance: 0.5610, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 swing low, also the 50% fib of the London leg, breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
Rejection at the 0.5610 session high that pulls price back inside the Asian range turns the breakout into a false break
Hold above 0.5610 leaves the 0.5626 upper cap as the next level overhead
Loss of the 0.5589 london low reverses the whole session move
ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC in the NY session could shift USD and this read
10:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows into session high · RSI 65 · price 0.56065
London false break below Asian low, then higher-low chain capped at 0.5607.
Early Europe slipped through the asian low at 0.5593 to a london low of 0.5589, then reversed through the Asian range high. Price has since printed higher lows along a rising higher-low line and is pressing the 0.5607 session high mid-London, RSI(14) near 65. The bounce runs against a firm USD on record-high US yields, with 0.5626 resistance the next level above.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5593, 0.5589
Resistance: 0.56066, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5607 session high extends the London leg toward 0.5626 resistance
Loss of the 0.5600 higher low and the higher-low line puts the 50–61.8% London leg fib zone (0.5598–0.5596) in focus
Return below the asian low at 0.5593 negates the false-break read
US ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could shift the USD tone into NY hours
Higher lows from 0.5580; London capped just above Asian high.
London open lifted NZDUSD off the 0.5589 pre-London low, and it poked 1 pip above the 0.5606 Asian high to a 0.56066 session high before rejection back toward the 0.5600 round number. Higher lows hold from Monday's 0.5580 YTD low, set when a yield-driven USD bid knocked the pair lower, but upside is shallow.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55892, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56066, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 round number reopens the 0.5589 pre-London low and the higher-low line
Close above the 0.56066 session high clears the Asian range; next upper resistance is 0.5626
Loss of the 0.5580 YTD low breaks the higher-low structure
ADP 12:15, Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC during NY hours could shift USD and yields
Higher lows since 0.5589, capped at session high 0.5607.
London lifted off the 0.5589 day low with higher lows, but the push through the Asian high stalled at the 0.5607 session high and price is back sitting on the 0.5600 psych level. The broader 0.5580–0.5607 range since Monday's ytd low holds, with a firm USD on 5.3% US 10y yields.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5589, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5607, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5600 breaks the London higher-lows line and exposes the 0.5589 day low
Acceptance above the 0.5607 session high opens 0.5626 prior res
Loss of 0.5589 puts the 0.5580 ytd low back in play
ADP 12:15 UTC, Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could shift the NY session read
09:17 UTC
Range, London leg fading · RSI 54 · price 0.56018
Two-sided sweep of Asian range, 0.5589–0.5607 band.
London swept under the Asian low (0.5593) to a 0.5589 london low, then cleared the Asian high to a 0.56066 session high before fading back to the 0.5600 psych level. That level matches the 38.2% fib of the London leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 54, and the pair is still pinned above Monday's 0.5580 prior low on firm US yields.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5589, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56066, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5600 psych and the 50% fib (0.5598) exposes the 0.5589 london low
Close above the 0.56066 session high reopens the path toward 0.5626 resistance
Loss of the 0.5580 prior low (YTD low) would mark a fresh low and a range break
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC could shift USD into the NY session
Asian range 0.5593–0.5606; London false break below, now testing range top.
Early London took out the Asian low at 0.5593 down to the london low at 0.5589, then reversed and briefly cleared the Asian high to a session high at 0.5607 before easing back to 0.5603. Higher lows off Monday's 0.5580 low hold on the rising trendline. RSI(14) is neutral near 56 while a firm USD on record UST yields keeps upside contained near YTD lows.
Support: 0.55979, 0.55929, 0.55892
Resistance: 0.56066, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5607 session high opens the path toward overhead resistance at 0.5626
Failure to hold the 0.5598 pullback low (50% fib of the London leg) puts the 0.5593 Asian low back in play
Break below the 0.5589 london low and rising trendline invalidates the higher-low read
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
08:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the 0.5589 low, pressing the Asian high · RSI 61 · price 0.56059
HH/HL chain through London; marginal break of the Asian range top at 0.5606.
London has built higher lows off the 0.5589 session low and is now poking a pip above the 0.5606 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 61 and nothing stretched. The bounce comes as USD drifts off Monday's highs, but price is still only about 26 pips above the 0.5580 Monday low, the YTD trough.
Support: 0.55982, 0.5589, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56066, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5598 swing low breaks the London HL chain and the 0.5600 handle
Failure to hold above the 0.5606 asian high would mark a false break of the Asian range
Acceptance above the Asian high puts 0.5626 prior res in view; loss of the 0.5589 session low reopens the 0.5580 monday low
US ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could shift this read
08:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, capped at range top · RSI 58 · price 0.56027
V-recovery from London-open low to Asian high; higher low at 0.5598.
London opened with a dip below the Asian range to a 0.5589 session low, then the London leg reversed it back to the 0.5606 Asian high, where two attempts have met rejection. The pair holds the 0.5580–0.5606 range near YTD lows, with USD firm on record US yields.
Support: 0.55982, 0.55892, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56059, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5606 asian high breaks the range top and opens 0.5626 next res
Loss of the 0.5598 london hl puts the 0.5589 session low back in play; below that, the 0.5580 monday low
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC could shift this read into the NY session
Range 0.5589–0.5606, London leg rejected at Asian high.
Early London dipped through the Asian low to a 0.5589 london low, a false break, then rallied to 0.5605 and was rejected just under the 0.5606 asian high. Price is back on the 0.5600 round number, about 35% into the London leg fib, hugging both EMAs, while a firm USD on record US yields keeps the pair pinned above Monday's 0.5580 ytd low.
Support: 0.55929, 0.55892, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56059
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5606 asian high breaks the range top
Loss of the 0.5593 asian low and 0.5589 london low reopens the 0.5580 ytd low
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number shifts focus to the lower half of the London leg fib
US ADP 4-wk avg 12:15 UTC and Fed Williams 13:05 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
08:03 UTC
Intraday rebound, pressing range top · RSI 60 · price 0.56037
False break below Asian range, higher lows into London open.
The early-Europe drop to the 0.5589 session low was a false break below the 0.5593 Asian low. Price reclaimed the 0.5600 round number into London open on a run of rising lows and is now testing the 0.5606 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 60. The bounce comes with USD still firm on record yields and NZD only about 23 pips above the 0.5580 Monday low.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55892, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56059, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5606 Asian high breaks the range top and opens the path to 0.5626 resistance
Loss of the 0.5600 round number and the rising lows trendline puts price back inside the Asian range
Break of the 0.5589 session low exposes the 0.5580 Monday low
US ADP at 12:15, Fed Williams at 13:05 and Bowman at 14:45 UTC could shift USD and change this read
Inside 0.5593–0.5606 Asian range after false break of Asian low.
Early London dipped through the Asian low to a 0.5589 session low, then reclaimed it. Price is back near 0.5599, just under the 0.5600 round number, after retracing about 64% of the overnight drop from the Asian high. The pair stays pinned close to Monday's 0.5580 ytd low as record-cycle US yields keep USD bid.
Support: 0.5593, 0.5589, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5606
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5606 asian high breaks the overnight range to the upside
Rejection at the 0.5600 round number keeps price capped inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 0.5589 session low reopens the 0.5580 ytd low
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on October hike odds could shift USD and this read
Asian range 0.5593–0.5606; false break below reclaimed.
A sharp dip ahead of London open broke the Asian range low and printed a session low at 0.5589, but price was quickly pulled back inside the range. It is now holding near 0.5596, about 40% into the fib of the Asian high–session low drop and just under the 0.5598 session high. NZD stays heavy near YTD lows on firm US yields, with the prior low at 0.5580 below.
Support: 0.55892, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.55983, 0.56059
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5598 session high puts the 0.5606 asian high back in play
Loss of the 0.5589 session low turns the false break into a range break toward the 0.5580 prior low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift USD via yields
ADP 4-wk average at 12:15 UTC adds NY-session event risk
Asian range 0.5593–0.5606; brief break below to 0.5589 now reclaimed.
In the pre-London hour, a drop broke the asian low at 0.5593 and printed a pre-ldn low at 0.5589. In the first hour of London, price has climbed back inside the range and is pressing the 38.2% retrace, with the 50% retrace at 0.5598 overhead and EMA20 capping. A firm USD on elevated long-end yields keeps the monday low at 0.5580, the YTD floor, in view.
Support: 0.55929, 0.5589, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.55975, 0.56059
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5589 pre-ldn low turns the false break into a range break and exposes the 0.5580 monday low
Close above the 0.5598 50% retrace opens a return to the 0.5606 asian high
US ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could shift USD tone during NY hours
Asian range broken lower pre-London; price retesting broken Asian low from below.
The 0.5593–0.5606 Asian range broke lower ahead of the London open. The drop to a 0.5589 session low tagged the 61.8% of Monday's 0.5580–0.5606 rebound fib. Price is now retesting the broken asian low from below at the 50% level, under lower Asia highs, with RSI(14) near 37 and USD still firm on long-end yields.
Support: 0.5589, 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.5601, 0.5606
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5593 asian low returns price to the range, with the 0.5601 monday high and 0.5606 asian high overhead
The Asia highs trendline near 0.5597 has capped rebounds; a break above it negates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5589 session low exposes the 0.5585 swing low and the 0.5580 ytd low
US ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Bowman (13:05/14:45 UTC) could shift USD tone during NY hours
06:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off Asian high · RSI 34 · price 0.55921
Asian range broken lower before London open; price retesting the broken low from below.
The 0.5593–0.5606 Asian range gave way just before the London open. A 9-pip drop set a 0.5589 session low, close to the 61.8% fib of Monday's 0.5580–0.5606 bounce, and price is now retesting the broken asian low from below with RSI(14) near 34. Successive lower highs off the 0.5606 asian high form a descending trendline, with the USD still supported by elevated US yields.
Support: 0.55892, 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.55929, 0.5602, 0.56059
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5593 asian low negates the range break and returns price inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 0.5589 session low exposes the 0.5585 ny low and the 0.5580 monday low
Descending trendline near 0.5598 caps the recovery; a break above the 0.5602 lower high voids the lower-high sequence
ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) could shift the USD read during NY hours
Lower highs through Asia; Asian low broken late session.
A 9-pip drop at 06:00 UTC broke the Asian low at 0.5593 and set a session low at 0.5589, right on the 61.8% fib of the 0.5580–0.5606 rally. Asian highs had already stepped lower from 0.5606, with yield-driven USD demand keeping the Kiwi capped near 0.5600. RSI(14) sits near 34 and price is below both EMAs into the London open.
Support: 0.5589, 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.55988, 0.56059
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 0.5593 would turn the break into a false break
Loss of the 0.5589 session low exposes the swing low at 0.5585 and the prior low at 0.5580
Lower-high trendline near 0.5599 caps rebounds; a close above it reopens the asian high at 0.5606
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could shift this read via US yields
06:17 UTC
Intraday drift lower, Asian range low broken · RSI 39 · price 0.55907
Lower highs from 0.5606 Asian high, break below 0.5593 Asian low.
Late Asia slipped below the 0.5593 Asian low in a single 9-pip bar to 0.5589, extending the lower highs sequence off the 0.5606 Asian high ahead of London open. That leaves the NY swing low at 0.5585 and the 0.5580 YTD low as the next shelves, with the firm USD on elevated long-end Treasury yields behind the slide. RSI(14) near 39 is not stretched.
Support: 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.5598, 0.5606
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5593 Asian low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5585 NY swing low exposes the 0.5580 YTD low
Reclaim of the lower highs line near 0.5598 negates the intraday down-sequence
London open in under an hour; ADP 4-wk average (12:15 UTC), Fed Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.5593–0.5606, lower high at 0.5602 inside it.
Late Asia session, ahead of London open. Monday's NY dip to the 0.5580 ytd low held, and price has ranged 0.5593–0.5606 since. It is drifting at 0.5597, just below the ema20, and holding the 38.2% retrace of the ytd low–asian high leg. A lower high at 0.5602 is capping as yield-driven USD demand keeps the Kiwi pinned near 0.5600.
Support: 0.55929, 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5602, 0.56059
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5593 asian low exposes the 0.5585 swing low and the 0.5580 ytd low
Close above the 0.5602 lower high reopens the 0.5606 asian high
London open is likely to resolve the sub-3-pip ATR compression
US ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 could shift the read later in the session
05:47 UTC
Sideways, momentum fading after Asian high · RSI 43 · price 0.55974
Contracting range: lower highs from 0.5606, higher lows from 0.5593.
Late Asia session, with price coiling near 0.5597, below EMA20 and EMA50, inside the 0.5593–0.5606 Asian range. A falling line off the 0.5606 asian high and the 0.5602 lower high meets a rising line off the 0.5593 asian low. This follows Monday's NY-session drop to 0.5580, the monday low and YTD-low area, on safe-haven USD demand. ATR(14) near 3 pips and RSI(14) ~43 show a compressed tape into the London open.
Support: 0.55929, 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5602, 0.56059
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5602 lower high breaks the descending line and puts the 0.5606 asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5593 asian low opens the 0.5585 swing low and the 0.5580 monday low
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) during NY hours could shift this read via US yields
Asian range 0.5593–0.5606, lower highs under 0.5600.
Asia session is holding a 0.5593–0.5606 range above Monday's 0.5580 low. Lower highs from the 0.5606 asian high have pushed price back under the 0.5600 round number and both EMAs, and it now sits on the 0.5596 micro low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Monday low–asian high leg. RSI(14) is near 42 and ATR is about 3 pips, so there is no momentum into London open while the yield-driven USD bid stays the backdrop.
Support: 0.55957, 0.55929, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5602, 0.56059
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5596 micro low puts the 0.5593 asian low (50% fib) in play, with the 0.5580 monday low below
M15 close above the 0.5602 lower high and the descending trendline reopens the 0.5606 asian high
London open (~07:00 UTC) typically expands the Asian range
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) in the NY session could shift USD tone
05:17 UTC
Flat, mild downside drift · RSI 43 · price 0.5597
Lower highs inside Asian range.
Late Asia session, with price coiled mid-range at 0.5597 inside the 0.5593–0.5606 Asian range after a series of lower highs off the 0.5606 Asian high. ATR has compressed to about 3 pips and RSI(14) sits near 43 as the firm USD, on 10y yields near 5.34%, keeps the pair pinned around 0.5600 above yesterday's NY low at 0.5580.
Support: 0.5593, 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5602, 0.5606, 0.5625
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5593 Asian low exposes the 0.5585 swing low and the 0.5580 NY low, which is also the YTD low area
Close above the 0.5602 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 0.5606 Asian high
0.5625 close cap is the nearest overhead level the pair has failed to close above
London open in under 2h is likely to resolve the Asian range
US ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC could shift this read via US yields
Asian range 0.5593–0.5606, lower highs since 01:15 UTC.
Late Asia session: NZDUSD is holding inside a 0.5593–0.5606 Asian range after Monday's NY session rebound from the 0.5580 NY low. Lower highs since the 0.5606 Asian high are capping price at 0.5602, and price sits on a 0.5596 micro low near the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) at 44. A firm USD on 10y yields near 5.34% keeps the pair pinned around 0.5600.
Support: 0.55963, 0.55929, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5602, 0.56059
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5593 asian low (50% fib) exposes the 0.5580 ny low
Close above the 0.5602 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.5606 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5596 micro low shifts the read to a test of the range floor
London open in ~2h is the first test of the Asian range
ADP 12:15, Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could reprice USD during NY hours
04:47 UTC
Sideways, fading from Asian high · RSI 41 · price 0.55972
Lower high inside Asian range 0.5593–0.5606, late Asia session.
Asia session was rejected twice at the 0.5606 Asian high and has since printed a lower high at 0.5602. Price is slipping back under the 0.5600 round number and EMA20 into the London open, with the firm USD keeping the pair pinned near yesterday's 0.5580 prior low (YTD-low area). The 0.5593 Asian low sits on the 50% fib of the rebound from that prior low to the Asian high.
Support: 0.55929, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56059
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5593 Asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.5580 prior low
Close back above the lower highs trendline and the 0.5600 round number puts the 0.5606 Asian high back in play
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift the read during NY session
Tight Asia range 0.5593–0.5606 above a rising higher-lows line.
Mid-Asia session, the pair is compressing between the 0.5593 Asia low and the 0.5606 Asia high. Monday's bounce off the 0.5580 monday low built a higher-lows chain, and the 03:00 UTC dip held the 50% fib of that leg. A lower high at 0.5602 caps price, RSI(14) is 44 and ATR is near 3 pips, so the tape is quiet as yield-led USD demand keeps the pair pinned around 0.5600.
Support: 0.5593, 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5602, 0.5606
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5593 asia low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 0.5585 swing low
Close above the 0.5602 lower high, then the 0.5606 asia high, would extend the higher-lows sequence from 0.5580
Loss of the 0.5580 monday low would mark a fresh YTD low on this window
London open in ~2.5h is the first test of the Asian range
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Bowman later today could shift the read via US yields
04:17 UTC
Sideways, compressing around 0.5600 · RSI 47 · price 0.55995
Asian range 0.5593–0.5606 with rising lows off Monday's 0.5580 low.
In the late Asia session, NZDUSD is churning at 0.5600 inside a 0.5593–0.5606 Asian range. This follows Monday's NY-session rebound off the 0.5580 ytd low, which came as yield-led USD demand paused. The earlier dip held the asia low at 0.5593, near the 50% fib of the rebound, keeping the rising lows line intact; RSI(14) is flat near 47 and ATR around 3.5 pips, showing compression.
Support: 0.5593, 0.55848, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56059, 0.5625
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.5593 asia low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.5585 swing low and the 0.5580 ytd low
Close above the 0.5606 asia high breaks the Asian range and brings the 0.5625 prior cap into view
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could shift the USD leg ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Minutes
04:04 UTC
Recovering from day low, momentum flattening · RSI 52 · price 0.56002
Higher lows into flat highs; Asian range 0.5593–0.5606.
After safe-haven USD demand drove Monday's NY dip to the 0.5580 day low, the pair has built higher lows along a rising trendline. The 03:00 UTC dip held at the asian low near the 50% rally fib. Late in the Asia session, price is pinned on a flat EMA20 around 0.5600 inside a 0.5593–0.5606 range, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and ATR about 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.55929, 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56059, 0.5625
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.5593 asian low and rising trendline exposes the 0.5585 ny swing low
M15 close above the 0.5606 session high extends the higher-low sequence toward the prior cap at 0.5625
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could revive the USD bid and put the 0.5580 day low back in play
03:47 UTC
Sideways, higher lows off NY low · RSI 58 · price 0.56019
Asian range 0.5593–0.5606 above rising lows.
Mid-Asia session, price is holding a tight 0.5593–0.5606 range just above the 0.5600 round number. The range follows NY's rebound from the 0.5580 ytd low; the asian low sits near the 50% retrace of that NY low–asian high leg, and rising lows remain intact. RSI(14) is near 58 and ATR(14) is under 4 pips, as the Kiwi consolidates into FOMC Minutes on a yield-led USD bid.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5593, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5606, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5593 asian low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.5580 ytd low
Break above the 0.5606 asian high opens the path to the 0.5625 prior cap
London open in ~3h typically expands the Asian range
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift USD and change this read
03:32 UTC
Sideways to firmer, higher lows off 0.5580 · RSI 53 · price 0.55998
Higher lows from monday low; Asian range 0.5593–0.5606.
Late Asia session sits mid-range at 0.5600. The 03:00 dip to the 0.5593 asian low, a 50% retrace of the monday low to asian high leg, drew demand back to the round number, keeping the rising trendline of higher lows intact. RSI(14) is neutral near 53, and the yield-led USD bid is capping price below the 0.5606 asian high.
Support: 0.55929, 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56059, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5593 asian low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5585 swing low, then the 0.5580 monday low
M15 close above the 0.5606 asian high opens the path to the 0.5625 prior cap
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read; FOMC Minutes due Wed
Rising lows off 0.5580; Asian range 0.5593–0.5606, price mid-range at 0.5600.
Since the NY session tagged the monday low at 0.5580 (YTD low area), NZDUSD has built rising lows. Late Asia is ranging below the 0.5606 asian high. The 03:00 bar swept the overnight low to a new asian low at 0.5593, the 50% retracement of the 0.5580–0.5606 move, then closed back at 0.5600. RSI(14) is flat at 51 while yield-driven USD demand caps rallies.
Support: 0.55929, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56059, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5593 asian low breaks the rising lows trendline and the 50% retracement, putting the 0.5580 monday low back in focus
Acceptance above the 0.5606 asian high extends the higher-high sequence toward the 0.5625 cap
US 10y yields and Fed's Williams/Bowman later in NY hours could reset the range
London open is the first test of whether the Asian range holds
03:04 UTC
Intraday range, rolling over from Asia high · RSI 39 · price 0.5594
False break above prior high, rising line from NY low broken.
Asia session pushed through Monday's 0.5600 prior high to a 0.5606 session high but could not hold, and price has slipped back to the 0.5593 session low and the 50% fib of the NY low–Asia high move. The rising line from the 0.5580 NY low is now broken. USD remains firm on elevated US yields, and NZD is consolidating just above its 0.5580 YTD low.
Support: 0.5593, 0.5585, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5606
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 prior high would neutralise the false break and reopen the 0.5606 session high
Acceptance below the 0.5593 session low (50% fib) exposes the 0.5585 NY swing low and the 0.5580 YTD low
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Bowman later today could shift the USD read heading into Wednesday's FOMC Minutes
HL chain from 0.5580 NY low; Asia high 0.5606 faded, price back on rising trendline.
Higher lows have built since Monday's 0.5580 NY low, set on safe-haven USD demand. The Asia session high at 0.5606 did not hold, and price has slipped back under 0.5600 psych and both EMAs. It now sits on the rising trendline near 0.5598, close to the 38.2% of the NY low swing, with RSI(14) ~44 and ATR ~3.5 pips.
Support: 0.55938, 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56059
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5594 asia low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Reclaim of 0.5600 psych and a push through the 0.5606 asia high would extend the HH/HL sequence
Loss of the 0.5585 swing low exposes the 0.5580 monday low, also the Nov-2025 low
London open in ~4h, then ADP and Fed's Williams/Bowman in NY hours, could reset the session range
Higher lows from 0.5580; mid-Asia, holding above the 0.5600 handle inside a 0.5594–0.5606 Asian range.
Monday's safe-haven USD bid sent the pair to a 0.5580 swing low near the Nov-2025 low during the London-NY transition. Since then it has built a higher-low trendline, and Asia printed a higher high at the 0.5606 asia high, clearing Monday's 0.5601 London top. Price is now retesting the 0.5600 psych handle with RSI(14) neutral at 53 and ATR near 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55938, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56059, 0.5610
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5594 asia low, which aligns with the 38.2% fib of the 0.5580–0.5606 leg, breaks the higher-low chain and the trendline
A push through the 0.5606 asia high opens the 0.5610 round number
Loss of the 0.5600 psych handle on a closing basis turns the retest into rejection
Return toward the 0.5580 swing low would put the Nov-2025 low back in play
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Williams (13:05 UTC) in NY hours could shift this read via yields
02:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the 0.5580 low, momentum moderate · RSI 56 · price 0.5603
Higher lows since Monday's NY low; mid-Asia session holding above 0.5600 after a retest.
After the NY-hours probe of the 0.5580 nov-25 low on safe-haven USD demand, NZDUSD has printed higher lows along a rising trendline. The Asia session lifted through the 0.5600 psych handle to a 0.5606 session high, and the 0.5600 area held on a retest. Price sits above both EMAs with RSI(14) near 56, consistent with a short-covering bounce rather than a stretched move.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5594, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5606, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.5600 psych puts the 0.5594 asian low and the rising trendline (~0.5597) in play
Clearance of the 0.5606 session high opens 0.5625 rebound res; a rejection there leaves Asia capped
Loss of the rising trendline would turn focus back to the 0.5580 nov-25 low
ADP 4-week avg (12:15 UTC) and Williams/Bowman (13:05/14:45 UTC) later Tuesday could materially shift the USD-driven read
Higher lows 0.55801/0.55848/0.55938, higher highs capped near 0.5606.
Early Asia session: the pair is holding a chain of higher lows from the 0.55801 Monday low, after Monday's safe-haven USD drop. The Asian session low at 0.55938 held and price printed a session high at 0.56059, just under the 0.56076 prior high, before slipping back to retest the 0.5600 round number with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55938, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56059, 0.56076
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 round number puts the 0.55938 session low and the rising trendline in play
Break of 0.55938 session low snaps the higher-low chain; the 0.55801 Monday low is the next reference
Close above 0.56059 session high and the 0.56076 prior high extends the uptrend sequence
ADP and Fed's Williams/Bowman during NY hours Tuesday could materially shift this read via US yields
01:47 UTC
Short-term uptrend, higher lows off NY low · RSI 53 · price 0.56029
HH/HL chain from 0.5580; Asian range 0.5594–0.5606 holding above 0.5600.
Rebound from the 0.5580 NY low, the Nov-2025 low the digest flags, has printed higher lows at 0.5585 and 0.5594, with early Asia session price holding above the 0.5600 round number after USD-driven selling Monday. The session high at 0.5606 was tagged twice and capped. The prior high at 0.5608 sits just above. RSI(14) is neutral near 53 and ATR is about 3 pips, typical of thin Asian-range conditions.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55938, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56059, 0.56078
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5606 session high and 0.5608 prior high extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5594 swing low (near the 50% rebound fib) breaks the higher-low sequence
A return to the 0.5580 NY low retests the Nov-2025 low
Fed's Williams/Bowman and ADP later Tuesday could shift USD tone and this read
01:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since NY · RSI 60 · price 0.56052
Higher-low chain off 0.5580, back above 0.5600 round number.
Since Monday's NY swing low at 0.5580, NZDUSD has printed higher lows. Early Asia dipped to an asian low at 0.5594, then pushed through the 0.5600 round number to 0.5606, despite the USD bid on 5.34% 10y yields. RSI(14) is near 60 and not stretched. The 0.5609 window high from Monday's Asia open is the next cap overhead.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55938, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56088, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5600 round number returns price to the overnight range
Break of the higher-lows trendline and the 0.5594 asian low undoes the intraday HL chain
Acceptance above the 0.5609 window high opens the 0.5625 psych level
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) in NY session could reprice USD
Early Asia session is sitting on the 0.5600 handle after demand at Monday's 0.5580 NY low, coinciding with the Nov-2025 low, built higher lows at the 0.5585 swing low and the 0.5594 asian low. Each test of 0.5600–0.5604 since London has met rejection, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and ATR(14) at about 3 pips signalling compression under the asian high. Safe-haven USD demand on bond stress remains the backdrop.
Support: 0.55938, 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5604, 0.56124
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5604 asian high breaks the cap and exposes the 0.5612 prior high
Loss of the 0.5594 asian low breaks rising support and puts the 0.5585 swing low and 0.5580 ny low back in play
Holding above the 50% retracement of the ny low–asian high leg (~0.5592) keeps the higher-low sequence intact
Tuesday's ADP (12:15 UTC) and Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) Fedspeak could shift USD tone later in the day
Higher-low chain from 0.5580; capped at 0.5604 Asian high.
Early Asia session: NZDUSD is back above the 0.5600 psych handle after the dip to the 0.5594 Asian low held near the 38.2% of the rebound fib from the 0.5580 swing low. Higher lows sit along the rising trendline from Monday's NY low, but the 0.5604 Asian high still caps price, with USD supported by 10y UST yields near 5.34%.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55938, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5604, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5604 Asian high opens next res at 0.5625
Failure to hold the 0.5594 Asian low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 0.5580 swing low
Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) later Tuesday could shift the USD read
In early Asia session the pair poked above the 0.5600 psych to an asia high at 0.5604, then slipped back to an asia low at 0.5594. The 0.5600 cap has now rejected London, NY and Asia, while rising lows from Monday's 0.5580 low and the 0.5585 swing low compress price beneath it. Monday's low came on the safe-haven USD bid as 10y yields hit 5.34%. ATR(14) near 3 pips reflects thin Asian conditions.
Support: 0.55938, 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5604
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5604 asia high breaks the range cap that has held since London Monday
Break of the rising lows line and the 0.5594 asia low exposes the 0.5585 swing low
Loss of the 0.5580 monday low, also the Nov-2025 low, would mark a fresh range break lower
US 10y yield moves and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) later today could shift the USD leg of this read
Higher lows from 0.5580 NY low; Asia rejected 0.5604, pullback testing trendline.
Early Asia pushed to a 0.5604 Asia high but was rejected, slipping back below the 0.5600 round number to a 0.5594 session low. Price now sits at the 38.2% fib of the rally from Monday's 0.5580 NY low and is pressing the rising trendline through the 0.5585 higher low. The USD bid on 5.34% 10y yields kept Monday's lows near the Nov-2025 floor.
Support: 0.55938, 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5604, 0.56145
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 0.5594 session low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.5585 higher low, then the 0.5580 NY low
Reclaiming the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5604 Asia high revives the higher-low sequence toward the 0.5615 Monday high
ADP 12:15 UTC, plus Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC today, could materially shift this read via US yields
00:17 UTC
Recovery off 0.5580, fading in early Asia · RSI 43 · price 0.5595
Higher lows since NY low, pulling back from 0.5604.
NY hours tested the 0.5580 Nov-2025 low before a recovery built higher lows up to the 0.5604 post-NY high, as safe-haven USD demand on 5.34% 10y yields kept rallies capped. Early Asia has slipped back under the 0.5600 round number to the 38.2% fib near 0.5595, with the rising trendline from the 0.5580 and 0.5585 pullback low sitting near 0.5590.
Support: 0.5590, 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5604, 0.56147
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising trendline near 0.5590 breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5585 pullback low
Loss of the 0.5580 Nov-25 low marks a fresh YTD low
Reclaim of the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5604 post-NY high puts the 0.5615 Monday open back in view
ADP 12:15 UTC, Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could shift USD and yields during NY hours
00:03 UTC
Rebound from day low, stalling below 0.5600 · RSI 46 · price 0.55969
Higher lows off 0.5580, capped at 0.5600–0.5604.
Early Asia session: NZD has climbed off Monday's 0.5580 NY day low, where safe-haven USD demand on yields was strongest. The pair printed a 0.5604 session high and then slipped back under the 0.5600 psych handle, with RSI(14) near 46. Higher lows at the 0.5585 swing low and the 0.5595 session low keep the rising-lows trendline intact, while ATR of about 3 pips reflects thin Asian trade.
Support: 0.55954, 0.55848, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5604, 0.5616
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5595 session low breaks the rising-lows trendline and puts the 0.5585 swing low back in play
Failure at the 0.5580 day low would mark a fresh lower low at the Nov-2025 low
Acceptance above the 0.5604 session high opens the 0.5616 prior high
Fib 38.2% of the 0.5580–0.5604 rebound sits near 0.5595; a hold there keeps the higher-low chain intact
US ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams/Bowman later Tuesday could reprice USD via yields