NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Tuesday, 6 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:05 UTC
Rebound off week low, pressing lower-highs line · RSI 63 · price 0.56239
Higher low Tuesday after Monday's lower low; tight consolidation just under week high.
Monday's Asia-session slide set the week low at 0.55801 into the NY open. Tuesday's London low at 0.5589 held as a higher low, and a late-London-into-NY advance lifted price back above the weekly open and EMA(20) to a 0.56282 week high as the USD eased with yields and oil. Price is now holding a narrow Asian range at 0.5622–0.5626, with RSI(14) near 63 and the lower-highs line from Friday's 0.56427 high capping overhead.
Support: 0.5616, 0.56074, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.56427, 0.5650
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.56282 week high and the lower-highs line opens the 0.56427 friday high, then the 0.5650 round number
Loss of EMA(20) near 0.5616 brings the 38.2% retracement of the 0.55801–0.56282 rally (≈0.5610) and the 0.56074 weekly open into play
Break of the higher-lows line (≈0.5598) would put the 0.55801 week low back in focus
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
RBNZ Governor Breman speech Thu 08:00 GMT is the key NZD-side risk to the Oct-28 hike pricing
Monday's NY-hours slide set a 0.5580 YTD low. Tuesday's London-NY transition then lifted the pair off a 0.5589 higher low, through 0.5600 and up to the 0.5628 Tue high, as the USD eased with Treasury yields. Price holds above the EMA(20) near 0.5617 and above EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 63. The double-bottom base is in place, but the rebound still sits inside the 0.5580–0.5643 range, which is capped by Friday's NFP-spike week high.
Support: 0.5617, 0.5589, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5643, 0.5650
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5628 tue high exposes the 0.5643 week high and the 0.5650 psych level
Loss of the ema20 and the higher-lows trendline brings 0.5600, the 38.2–50% fib zone of the Mon–Tue rally (0.5610–0.5604) and the 0.5589 tue low back into view
Break below the 0.5580 ytd low invalidates the double-bottom read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and RBNZ Governor Breman Thu 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low at 0.5589 after Monday's 0.5580 low; Monday range top cleared.
Monday's Asia-session slide set the week low at 0.5580, but Tuesday printed a higher low at 0.5589. From the London open price pushed through the weekly open and the 0.5621 Monday high as the USD eased with cooling yields and oil. The rally stalled at the 0.5628 week high, just under the lower-highs line from Friday's 0.5643 NFP high. Price is holding above EMA(20) near 0.5615, and RSI(14) sits in the high 60s without reaching overbought.
Support: 0.56208, 0.56074, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56282, 0.56427
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5628 week high and the lower-highs line opens the 0.5643 NFP high
Slip back below the 0.5621 Monday high and the 0.5607 weekly open returns price to Monday's range and the 50-61.8% fib of Tuesday's rally
Break of the higher-lows line and the 0.5580 week low resumes the YTD-low pressure
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and RBNZ Governor Breman Thu 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low Tuesday, Monday high cleared, under NFP high.
After Monday's slide to the 0.5580 week low, Tuesday's London dip held a higher low at 0.5589. The pair then climbed from late London into the NY session through Monday's high and the 0.5607 weekly open as DXY slipped below 102.00 on cooler yields and oil. Price now sits near the 78.6% retracement of the NFP high to week low move, capped so far by the 0.5628 Tuesday high. The NY pullback found demand at 0.5621, and EMA(20) has crossed above EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 68.
Support: 0.5621, 0.5607, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5643
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5628 Tuesday high opens the 0.5643 NFP high
Loss of the 0.5621 NY pullback and a return below the 0.5607 weekly open would put price back inside Monday's range
A break of the higher lows trendline from 0.5580/0.5589 would revive pressure on the week low
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Higher lows from 0.5580, Mon–Tue range top cleared.
Monday's Asia-session slide set a 0.5580 week low, then price held a tight 0.5580–0.5600 range into Tuesday, with a higher low at 0.5589. Tuesday's London session broke the range top as DXY slipped under 102.00 on easing yields and oil, and NY extended the move to a 0.5628 tue high. That high sits at the digest's 0.5626 resistance, beyond the 61.8% retracement of the drop from Friday's nfp high, with RSI(14) near 70 and the 0.5614 pullback low as the nearest higher low.
Support: 0.5614, 0.5600, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5643
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5628 tue high opens the 0.5643 nfp high
Slip back below the 0.5600 range top returns price to the Mon–Tue range
A break of the higher lows trendline and 0.5614 pullback low undercuts the rebound
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Higher lows since Monday's 0.5580 low; NY breakout above Monday high.
Monday's slide from the 0.5607 weekly open bottomed at the 0.5580 weekly low in NY hours. Tuesday's higher low at 0.5589 was followed by a NY-session drive through the Monday high to a 0.5628 session high as DXY slipped below 102.00 on lower oil and yields. Price now sits above the EMA(20) near 0.5612 and the EMA(50) near 0.5607, with RSI(14) near 69. Friday's post-NFP spike to the 0.5643 nfp high faded quickly, and that level is the next cap above the Monday–Tuesday rebound.
Support: 0.5621, 0.5612, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5643, 0.5650
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.5621 monday high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the ema20 near 0.5612 and the higher-low line would put the 0.5580 weekly low back in play
Acceptance above the 0.5643 nfp high opens the 0.5650 round number
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
RBNZ Governor Breman Thu 08:00 UTC is high-impact for NZD
17:05 UTC
Short-term rebound off Monday low, higher low in place · RSI 64 · price 0.56215
Higher low at 0.5589, Monday high cleared, capped below NFP spike high.
NZDUSD has recovered from Monday's 0.5580 low and printed a higher low at 0.5589 around Tuesday's London open. The London-NY transition push then cleared Monday's 0.5621 high as the USD eased with oil and yields. Price holds above the weekly open at 0.5607 and EMA(20) near 0.5610, with RSI(14) around 64. The Tuesday high at 0.5628 still sits below Friday's NFP spike high at 0.5643 and the 0.5650 psych level.
Support: 0.5607, 0.5589, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5643, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Failure to clear the 0.5628 tuesday high leaves a lower high beneath the 0.5643 nfp spike
H1 close back below the 0.5607 weekly open returns price to Monday's range
Break of the 0.5589 higher low exposes the 0.5580 monday low and the YTD low area
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and RBNZ Breman Thu 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A close above 0.5643 opens the path to the 0.5650 psych level
16:04 UTC
Short-term recovery from week low, pressing week high · RSI 70 · price 0.56246
Higher low at 0.5589, range break above 0.5606, extension to 0.5628.
The week opened at 0.5607. Monday's USD bid drove NZD/USD to a 0.5580 week low during NY hours, and Tuesday's Asia dip held a higher low at 0.5589, forming a double bottom. The London-hour range break back through the weekly open and the 0.5613 prior close extended into NY to a 0.5628 week high, as DXY slipped below 102.00 on easing yields. Price now sits above both EMAs with RSI(14) near 70, stretched after a near-40-pip leg with no pullback yet.
Support: 0.5613, 0.5607, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5643
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5628 week high opens Friday's 0.5643 NFP high
Slip back under the 0.5613 prior close (38.2% fib) puts the range break on retest
Loss of the 0.5607 weekly open returns price to the double bottom range and exposes the 0.5580 week low
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
RBNZ Governor Breman speaks Thu 08:00 UTC, high-impact for NZD
Higher low at 0.5589, Tuesday range top 0.5606 broken.
Monday's USD bid drove the pair from the 0.5607 weekly open to a 0.5580 week low during NY hours. Tuesday's Asia-London range of 0.5589-0.5606 then printed a higher low and broke to the upside into the London-NY transition as Treasury yields eased. That put price back above the weekly open and EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 64. Price is now pressing the 0.5625 week high, which sits just above the 61.8% retracement of the slide from Friday's 0.5643 NFP high to Monday's low.
Support: 0.5607, 0.5589, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5625, 0.5643
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.5607 weekly open / EMA(20) returns price to Tuesday's range
Failure to hold the 0.5589 higher low exposes the 0.5580 week low
Close above the 0.5625 week high opens Friday's 0.5643 NFP high
Bowman (14:45 UTC today) and FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could reprice US yields and shift this read
RBNZ Governor Breman, Thu 08:00 UTC: hike-odds repricing is the main NZD-side risk
Lower highs since Wed; higher low Tue, break of Mon-Tue range.
The week opened at 0.5607 and slid through Monday's Asia session to set the week low at 0.5580 into NY hours, as USD strength and bond-market stress weighed on the Kiwi. Tuesday's London session printed a higher low at 0.5589, then broke the 0.5580–0.5606 range and reclaimed the weekly open and EMA(20) as Treasury yields eased. The move stalled at the tue high of 0.5625, near the 61.8% level of the NFP fib, and the rejection keeps price under the descending lower highs line from Wednesday.
Support: 0.56074, 0.5589, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56253, 0.56427
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5625 tue high opens the 0.5643 nfp high and tests the lower highs line
Failure back below the 0.5607 weekly open returns price to Monday's range
Loss of the 0.5589 higher low breaks the higher lows line; below the 0.5580 week low the downtrend resumes
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC today and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could shift the USD leg
RBNZ Governor Breman Thu 08:00 UTC is a direct risk to Oct 28 hike pricing
13:06 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding off the week low · RSI 66 · price 0.56188
Higher low at 0.5589; Mon-Tue range top broken, stalling at 0.5621.
NZDUSD slid from 0.5645 last Wednesday to a 0.5580 week low into Monday's NY session as USD demand resurfaced, fully erasing Friday's spike to the 0.5643 nfp high after the soft payrolls print. Tuesday's late-London push broke the 0.5590–0.5606 range top and cleared EMA(20) near 0.5604, then stalled at 0.5621. That level is a fresh week high and sits on the 61.8% fib of the NFP-high-to-week-low drop. RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-60s, and the higher low at 0.5589 keeps the rebound structure intact.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5589, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5643
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.5606 range top would turn the break into a false break
Close above the 0.5621 week high and 61.8% fib opens the path toward the 0.5643 nfp high
Loss of the 0.5589 higher low puts the 0.5580 week low (November-2025 low) back in play
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could shift USD tone
RBNZ Governor Breman Thu 08:00 UTC on Oct 28 hike odds is the key NZD-side risk
Higher lows off 0.5580, testing prior lower-high zone.
The slide from the 0.5654 window high bottomed at the 0.5580 week low during Monday's NY session as USD demand resurfaced. Since then, higher lows at 0.5585 and 0.5589 formed a double bottom. Today's London push cleared the 0.5606 neckline and the week open at 0.5607 as the dollar eased in Europe, lifting price above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 64. The bounce now sits at the 61.8% fib of the Friday-to-Monday drop, just under the 0.5621–0.5624 pre-nfp high that has capped price since Friday.
Support: 0.56074, 0.5600, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56237, 0.56427
What it said to watch
H1 close above the pre-nfp high at 0.5624 extends the bounce toward the 0.5643 nfp high
H1 close back below the week open at 0.5607 would mark the breakout as a false break and return price to the 0.5580–0.5606 base
Loss of the 0.5600 round number and the higher-low trendline reopens the 0.5580 week low
ADP, Williams and Bowman during NY hours today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
RBNZ Governor Breman Thu 08:00 UTC is a high-impact risk for the Kiwi
Lower highs vs higher lows, compressing 0.5589-0.5610.
Monday's Asia-session drop from the 0.5621 week high set the week low at 0.5580. Since then the pair has compressed: Tuesday's London open lifted price off a higher low at 0.5589 to a 0.5610 day high, which stalled near the 50% retracement of the NFP-spike-to-low move and the lower-highs line from Friday. Price sits just above EMA(20) at the 0.5600 psych level and a flat EMA(50), with RSI(14) neutral near 55, as the Kiwi keeps trading US yields and broad dollar strength rather than RBNZ hike bets.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5589, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5610, 0.5621, 0.5643
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5610 day high and the lower-highs line opens a test of the 0.5621 week high
Loss of the 0.5589 higher low exposes the 0.5580 week low, which is also the November-2025 low
ADP (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) today could move US yields and shift this read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC; only a recovery through the 0.5643 nfp high breaks the lower-highs sequence since Friday
Lower highs since Wednesday; tight 0.5580–0.5607 range with higher lows since Monday NY.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since Wednesday: 0.5664, then Friday's NFP high at 0.5643, then Monday's high at 0.5621. Monday's USD bid on record UST yields set a week low at 0.5580. Since then price has held a tight 0.5580–0.5607 range along a line of higher lows, and early London today rebounded from the 0.5589 London low. Price now presses the weekly open at 0.5607, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the NFP-high to week-low leg, and sits just above the H1 EMA20 near 0.5600 with RSI(14) around 58.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5589, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5607, 0.5621, 0.5643
What it said to watch
H1 close above the weekly open at 0.5607 brings the Monday high at 0.5621 (near the 61.8% fib) into focus
Losing the ema20 / 0.5600 and the london low at 0.5589 puts the week low at 0.5580 back in play
H1 close below the 0.5580 week low breaks the higher-lows line and extends the downtrend
Reclaiming the nfp high at 0.5643 would end the lower-high sequence
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and Breman Thu 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read
NZDUSD has printed lower highs from Friday's post-NFP spike at 0.5643 (nfp high) through Monday's 0.5621 high. A sharp Asia-session slide on Monday and a NY-hours extension took it to a 0.5580 week low as US yields and a bid dollar dominated. Since then price has held a 0.5580–0.5607 band: the London-open dip to 0.5589 (today low) was absorbed, and price is back above EMA(20) at 0.5599, pressing the weekly open and the 38.2% level of the nfp-to-low fib near 0.5604, with RSI(14) near 55 pointing to stalled downside momentum rather than a reversal.
Support: 0.5599, 0.5589, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5607, 0.5621, 0.5643
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5607 weekly open and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence and opens 0.5621 monday high
Loss of 0.5589 today low exposes the 0.5580 week low; a close below it marks a fresh YTD low and extends the downtrend
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could shift the read via US yields
0.5643 nfp high remains the top of the lower-high structure; only a move through it alters the swing picture
Lower highs since NFP spike; tight 0.5589–0.5606 range above YTD low.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since Friday's NFP spike to 0.5643 faded. Monday's bond-market selloff and a bid USD drove a fresh YTD low at the 0.5580 week low during NY hours. Since then price has compressed between the 0.5589 tue low and 0.5606, and into London open it has reclaimed EMA(20) near 0.5598 while sitting just above EMA(50) and on the 38.2% retracement of the NFP-Monday leg; RSI(14) has recovered to around 58, but the weekly open at 0.5607 and the prior close at 0.5613 still cap the bounce.
Support: 0.5598, 0.5589, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5607, 0.5613, 0.5621
What it said to watch
H1 close above the weekly open at 0.5607 and the prior close at 0.5613 would break the lower-high sequence and open the week high at 0.5621
Failure to hold the tue low at 0.5589 and the ema20 would expose the 0.5580 week low, the YTD low
Rejection at the 38.2% level of the NFP-Monday leg near 0.5604 keeps the retracement shallow
Fed Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
07:04 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 46 · price 0.55932
Lower highs since Wednesday; tight 0.5580–0.5606 range above weekly low.
Wednesday's 0.5665 peak, Friday's NFP spike to 0.5643 and Monday's high at 0.5621 all line up on one falling line of lower highs. The drop extended through Monday's Asia session to a 0.5580 weekly low at the NY open, as safe-haven USD demand and a 10y near 5.34% outweighed the payrolls miss. Since then price has compressed between 0.5580 and a 0.5606 range top, just under the 0.5607 weekly open, and now sits slightly below EMA(20) at 0.5596 with RSI(14) flat in the mid-40s.
Support: 0.5589, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5596, 0.5606, 0.5621
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5580 weekly low (Nov-2025/YTD low) extends the downtrend toward the 0.5580–0.5470 zone
Break of the 0.5589 session low from London open puts the weekly low back in play
H1 close above the 0.5606 range top and the lower-highs line breaks the sequence; the 38.2% fib of the drop at 0.5612 and the 0.5621 monday high sit next overhead
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
RBNZ Governor Breman Thu 08:00 GMT is the main NZD-side risk to the range
Lower highs since Wednesday; tight range above week low.
H1 has printed successive lower highs from Wednesday's 0.5665 through Friday's NFP high at 0.5643 and the Monday high at 0.5621. Monday's Asia-session drop and NY-session extension to the week low at 0.5580 tracked safe-haven USD demand and rising US yields. Since then price has compressed in a 0.5590–0.5606 band beneath the weekly open, sitting flat on EMA(20) with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR contracting to about 7 pips.
Support: 0.5586, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5607, 0.5621, 0.5643
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5580 week low confirms a fresh lower-low beyond the Nov-2025 low area
Loss of the 0.5586 friday low exposes the week low again
H1 close above the 0.5607 weekly open and the lower-high trendline challenges the downtrend read; the 0.5621 monday high is the next cap
Fed Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could break the current consolidation
RBNZ Governor Breman Thu 08:00 GMT is a key NZD-side risk for this structure
Lower highs since Wed; tight Asian range above 0.5580 low.
Lower highs run from Wednesday's 0.5665 through the post-NFP spike to 0.5643 and Monday's 0.5621 week high, keeping the H1 downtrend intact. Monday's Asia-session drop and NY-session follow-through printed a YTD low at 0.5580 as high US yields and safe-haven USD demand outweighed the NZIER beat. Price has since compressed into a 0.5593–0.5606 Asian range, just above a flattening EMA(20) but below the weekly open at 0.5607 and the lower-highs trendline, stalling at the 23.6% retracement of the Wed–Mon decline with RSI(14) near 51.
Support: 0.55929, 0.5586, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.56074, 0.56208
What it said to watch
H1 close above the weekly open at 0.5607 and the lower-highs trendline challenges the downtrend read, with the 0.5621 week high next
Break of the 0.5593 Asian low exposes the 0.5586 prior low and the 0.5580 YTD low
H1 close below the 0.5580 YTD low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and RBNZ Breman Thu 08:00 GMT could materially shift this read
04:04 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 52 · price 0.56004
Lower highs since NFP spike; tight range above weekly low.
Friday's NFP spike to 0.5643 faded within the NY session. Monday's Asia session opened a fresh leg lower, extending to a weekly low at 0.5580 into the NY open as safe-haven USD demand and US yields pressed the YTD low. Since then the pair has compressed into a ~15-pip Asian range around 0.5600. Price sits just above EMA(20) but is capped by EMA(50) and the fib 38.2 retracement near 0.5606, with RSI(14) flat around 52 and the lower-highs sequence intact.
Support: 0.55929, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5606, 0.56129, 0.56208
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5621 monday high breaks the lower-highs sequence; prior close at 0.5613 is the first hurdle
Repeated rejection at the fib 38.2 / EMA(50) zone near 0.5606 keeps the downtrend read intact
Break of the 0.5593 asia low reopens a test of the 0.5580 weekly low; a close below confirms a lower-low at the YTD low
Fed's Williams and Bowman today and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
RBNZ Governor Breman Thu 08:00 GMT is the key NZD-side risk to the range
Lower highs since Wednesday; tight range 0.5580–0.5606.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 0.5665 top, with Friday's NFP high at 0.5643 and Monday's 0.5621 week high both capped near the lower-high trendline. Monday's Asia-session drop on safe-haven USD demand ran into the NY open low at 0.5580, retesting the YTD low, before price settled into a tight consolidation around EMA(20). Tuesday's Asian bounce met rejection at 0.5606, just under the weekly open and the 38.2% fib retrace of the Friday–Monday drop, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 0.5586, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5607, 0.5621, 0.5643
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5607 weekly open and the lower-high trendline would break the lower-high sequence and expose the 0.5621 week high
Failure to hold the 0.5586 Friday low puts the 0.5580 YTD low back in play; a close below it extends the downtrend
Fed's Williams and Bowman today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
RBNZ Governor Breman Thu 08:00 GMT is a high-impact NZD risk
Lower highs and lower lows; price retesting weekly open from below.
H1 has printed a sequence of lower highs: 0.5665 on Wednesday, 0.5643 on Friday's NFP spike, then 0.5621 at Monday's open. Monday's Asia-session drop and NY extension then set a 0.5580 week low at the Nov-2025 low, as safe-haven USD demand on bond-market stress outweighed the weak payrolls print. Price has since recovered into Tuesday's Asia session, with EMA(20) at 0.5598 now underneath and RSI(14) back near 53. It is pressing the 0.5607 weekly open and the 38.2% retrace of the NFP high to week low leg, while EMA(50) near 0.5604 sits just overhead.
Support: 0.5598, 0.5586, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5607, 0.5621, 0.5643
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5607 weekly open and EMA(50) would extend the corrective bounce toward the 0.5621 monday high and the 50–61.8% fib zone
Lower-highs trendline from Wednesday's high now sits near 0.5625; rebounds stay corrective while it caps
Loss of ema20 at 0.5598 and a break of the 0.5586 friday low would put the 0.5580 week low back in play
H1 close below the 0.5580 week low (Nov-2025 low) would confirm another lower low, with the next zone toward 0.5470
ADP 12:15 UTC, Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC during NY hours today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wednesday; tight base 0.5580–0.5604.
Lower highs have run from Wednesday's 0.5665 peak. Friday's weak-NFP spike to 0.5643 faded within NY hours, and Monday's NY-session slide on safe-haven USD demand printed the week low at 0.5580, near the Nov-2025 low. Since then the pair has based above the friday low around 0.5586. Asia session has reclaimed 0.5600, with price above EMA(20) near 0.5596 and pinned at EMA(50), while RSI(14) recovers to the mid-50s and range compresses to roughly 7–8 pips per bar.
Support: 0.5596, 0.5586, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5604, 0.5612, 0.5621
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 0.5612 (also the lower-highs trendline and prior-week close) breaks the lower-high sequence
Monday high at 0.5621 is the next cap if 0.5612 gives way
Rejection at the 0.5604 tuesday high keeps the base read intact
Loss of EMA(20) at 0.5596 returns focus to the 0.5586 friday low
Failure to hold the 0.5580 week low confirms a fresh lower-low
Fed's Williams and Bowman today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read