Lower highs from Wednesday; tight base above 0.5580 since Monday.
Lower highs since Wednesday's London peak at 0.5665. Friday's NFP-miss spike to the 0.5643 nfp high was rejected the same session as USD safe-haven demand on bond-market stress and US-Iran tension reasserted. Monday opened below the 0.5607 weekly open, lost 20 pips in the Asia session and printed the 0.5580 week low into the London-NY transition, just above the friday low at 0.5586. Since then price has compressed around 0.5600, back above the H1 ema20 near 0.5596 but still under EMA50, with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-50s and ATR(14) contracting to about 8 pips.
Support: 0.5596, 0.5586, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5607, 0.5621, 0.5643
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5580 week low, which coincides with the Nov-2025 low, extends the lower-low sequence
Failure to hold the ema20 at 0.5596 and the friday low at 0.5586 returns the focus to 0.5580
Reclaim of the 0.5607 weekly open and the 38.2% fib at 0.5612 tests the lower-highs trendline, with the 0.5621 monday high above it
Only a move through the 0.5643 nfp high breaks the Wednesday-to-Friday lower-highs structure
Fed's Williams and Bowman (Tue), FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) and RBNZ's Breman (Thu 08:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower-high sequence intact; basing just above 0.5580 ytd low.
Lower highs have stepped down from Wednesday's 0.5665 to Friday's NFP-spike high at 0.5643 and Monday's high at 0.5621, while the Asia-session drop broke Friday's low and the NY session tagged the 0.5580 ytd low as safe-haven USD demand returned. A bounce off that low was capped at the 0.5600 round number. Price is now pinned against a flattening EMA(20) at the 23.6% fib of the week's decline, with RSI(14) back near 50.
Support: 0.5586, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56074, 0.56208
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5607 weekly open would mark the first break in the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5580 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence below Friday's low at 0.5586
A move through the lower highs trendline and the 0.5621 Monday high would open the 38.2–50% fib zone around 0.5612–0.5622
NZIER business confidence tonight 21:00 UTC and Wednesday's FOMC Minutes could shift this read
RBNZ's Breman on Thursday 08:00 UTC tests the ~80% priced October hike
Lower highs since Wednesday; tight 0.5580–0.5601 range Monday.
Lower highs have defined the window: Wednesday's 0.5665 top, Friday's NFP spike capped at 0.5643, then Monday's Asia high at 0.5621. Monday's Asia-session drop from the 0.5607 weekly open carried price to the 0.5580 ytd low into the NY open as safe-haven USD demand returned, and the post-ISM bounce stalled at the 0.5600 round number. Price is back below EMA(20) near 0.5596, with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR compressed in a tight range above the low, while the lower highs trendline still caps any recovery.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5470
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5607, 0.5621
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5580 ytd low extends the downtrend toward the 0.5470 next zone flagged in the macro digest
Reclaim of the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5607 weekly open would ease pressure on Monday's range
Break above the lower highs trendline near 0.5621, close to the 38.2% fib retracement of the Wednesday-to-Monday decline at 0.5612, would undermine the lower-high sequence
NZIER business confidence tonight 21:00 UTC and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday, fresh low below 0.5585.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 0.5665 top. Friday's NFP spike to 0.5643 fully reversed, and an Asia-session drop after the 0.5607 weekly open broke 0.5600. Risk-off USD demand on bond-market stress carried the pair through the 0.5585 ytd low to a 0.5580 week low in the first hour of NY, with the London bounce capped at the 0.5601 london high, just above EMA(20) near 0.5595. RSI(14) near 37 sits above its Asia-session trough despite the lower low, a modest bullish divergence.
Support: 0.5585, 0.55801
Resistance: 0.5595, 0.56014, 0.56074
What it said to watch
ISM Services due 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot Prices Paid print adds to the safe-haven USD bid
Failure to hold the 0.5580 week low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the ytd low
H1 closes back above 0.5585 and the ema20 would turn the break below the ytd low into a false break
A close above the lower highs trendline and the 0.5601 london high breaks the downtrend structure, exposing the 0.5607 weekly open
50% retracement of the Wed high–week low drop sits near 0.5622
Lower highs since Wednesday; retesting YTD low after a failed London bounce.
Lower highs have formed since Wednesday's 0.5665 peak. Friday's NFP spike to 0.5643 fully faded, and Monday's Asia session broke to a fresh ytd low at 0.5584 as safe-haven USD demand and bond-market stress outweighed RBNZ hike pricing. The London bounce stalled at 0.5601, short of the 23.6% retrace of the Wed-Mon drop and below the weekly open, and price is now back under EMA(20), retesting the ytd low with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.55842
Resistance: 0.5597, 0.56014, 0.56074
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5584 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 0.5601 london high and the 0.5607 weekly open would break the lower-highs run
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 0.5597 needed to ease the downtrend read
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
NZIER business confidence at 21:00 UTC and Breman Thu 08:00 UTC are the NZD-side risks
Lower highs, marginal lower low; tight range below EMA20.
H1 has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 0.5664 peak. Friday's NFP-miss spike to 0.5643 faded through NY hours, and Monday's Asia session dropped from the 0.5607 weekly open and a 0.5621 lower high to a fresh YTD low at 0.5584 as haven USD demand stayed firm. Since London open, price has held a 0.5587–0.5601 range, with the range floor below and the range top capping just under EMA(20), and RSI(14) near 39 after the break.
Support: 0.5587, 0.5584
Resistance: 0.5601, 0.5607, 0.5621
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5584 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5601 range top and the 0.5607 weekly open would ease the downside structure
Lower-highs trendline near 0.5616 and the 38.2% retrace of the Wednesday–Monday drop at 0.5615 cap the next layer, just under the 0.5621 lower high
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
NZIER business confidence at 21:00 UTC adds NZD event risk into Asia
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.5664; tight London consolidation under ema20.
The H1 sequence stays lower since Wednesday's 0.5664 high. Friday's NFP spike to 0.5643 faded into a lower high, and Monday's Asia session broke through 0.5600 to the 0.5584 YTD low as the bond rout and haven USD demand weighed on the Kiwi. London has compressed between the 0.5588 london low and 0.5601, capped by ema20 near 0.5600, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s and no divergence.
Support: 0.55884, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56074, 0.56149
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5584 ytd low extends the lower-low sequence beyond Monday's Asia session move
Reclaiming ema20 and the 0.5607 weekly open would be the first challenge to the lower-highs trendline structure
The 38.2% fib of the 0.5664-0.5584 drop at 0.5615 is the next reference if the consolidation resolves higher
Loss of the london low at 0.5588 ends the session range
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, TD 54.0) could materially shift this read via USD
NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC is a secondary NZD risk into the Asia session
The H1 sequence of lower highs from Wednesday's 0.5665 through Friday's NFP high at 0.5643 stays intact. The weak NFP spike faded the same NY session, and Monday's Asia session drop through 0.5600 printed the YTD low at 0.5584 as a global bond rout lifted the haven USD. Since then price has held a tight 0.5584–0.5601 band below the psych/ema20 zone, with London capping at 0.5601. The low sits only two pips under the Friday low, so the Wednesday-to-Monday decline is compressing rather than extending.
Support: 0.55842, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56074, 0.56427
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5584 YTD low, and the 0.5586 Friday low just above it, confirms a fresh lower-low
Acceptance above the 0.5600 psych/ema20 zone and the 0.5607 weekly open would mark the first higher-high since Monday's Asia drop
A move back through the lower-highs trendline toward the 0.5643 NFP high would break the Wednesday-to-Monday decline structure
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read in the NY session
NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC and RBNZ Governor Breman on Wed Oct 8 are the next NZD-specific risks
Lower highs and lower lows; pullback stalling just under 0.5600 and ema20.
Lower highs from Wednesday's 0.5664 peak through Friday's NFP spike to 0.5643 and today's 0.5621 monday high. That NFP rally faded within the NY session. The weekly open at 0.5607 gave way in a sharp Asia session drop to a fresh ytd low at 0.5584, as the bond-market rout and haven USD demand outweighed RBNZ hike pricing. London has lifted price off the london low at 0.5588 back into a retest of the 0.5600 psych level, with ema20 near 0.5602 overhead and RSI(14) recovering only to the mid-40s.
Support: 0.55884, 0.55842
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56074, 0.56208
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5600 psych level and ema20 at ~0.5602 would mark the first break of the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the london low at 0.5588 puts the 0.5584 ytd low back in play; a close below it extends the lower-low pattern
Reclaiming the weekly open at 0.5607 and the monday high at 0.5621 would bring the lower-highs trendline into test
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and NZIER QSBO at 21:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Fib 23.6% of the Wednesday-to-Monday decline sits at ~0.5603, overlapping ema20
Lower highs and lower lows; basing just above monday low.
H1 has printed lower highs from Wednesday's 0.5665 through Friday's NFP spike to the 0.5643 nfp high, and the payrolls bounce faded fully during NY hours. Asia-session selling on haven USD demand broke the 0.5600 psych level and the weekly open at 0.5607, and set a monday low at 0.5584 just under Friday's 0.5586. Price now consolidates below the EMA(20) near 0.5603 with RSI(14) around 37, holding just above Thursday's 0.5593 thu low.
Support: 0.5593, 0.5584
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5607, 0.5643
What it said to watch
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read during NY hours
H1 close back above the weekly open at 0.5607 and the EMA(20) would ease pressure on the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the monday low at 0.5584 extends the lower-low sequence to fresh lows
Recovery through 0.5615 (38.2% of the Wed-Mon drop) toward the 0.5643 nfp high would break the lower-highs structure
NZIER Q3 Business Confidence at 21:00 UTC is a risk for the Asia session
Lower highs and lower lows since Wednesday's peak; shallow pause under 0.5600.
NZD/USD has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 0.5665 peak. Thursday's London-NY slide broke through 0.5600, and Friday's NFP spike to 0.5643 (the nfp high) was fully retraced within the NY session. Monday's Asia session pushed the pair below Friday's 0.5586 low to a week low at 0.5584 as haven USD demand returned. Price is now consolidating just under the 0.5600 psych level and EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 39 and the monday high at 0.5621 capping the bounce.
Support: 0.5584
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5621, 0.5643
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.5600 psych level and EMA(20) would ease the immediate downside read
Failure to hold the 0.5584 week low extends the lower-low sequence into fresh YTD territory
A break of the monday high at 0.5621 and the lower highs trendline would breach the sequence; the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday-to-Monday decline sits near 0.5615
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; the nfp high at 0.5643 marks the last post-data extreme
NZIER Q3 Business Confidence at 21:00 UTC adds NZD event risk into the Asia session
Lower highs and lower lows; marginal new week low in Monday Asia.
Highs have stepped lower since Wednesday's 0.5665 peak. Friday's NFP spike to the 0.5643 nfp high met rejection and faded through NY hours. Monday's Asia session broke back below the 0.5600 psych level, posting a fresh week low at 0.5584 just under Friday low (0.5586), as USD haven demand on Middle East headlines outweighed the soft US data. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.5605, which is converging with the 0.5607 weekly open, and RSI(14) is in the high-30s without divergence at the new low.
Support: 0.55842, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56074, 0.56427
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 0.5600 psych level and the 0.5607 weekly open would neutralise Monday's break
Acceptance below the 0.5584 week low extends the lower-low sequence
A break of the lower highs trendline, or a move above the 38.2% fib of the Wednesday-to-Monday decline near 0.5615, would challenge the downtrend read
ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
NZIER Q3 Business Confidence at 21:00 UTC and RBNZ's Breman on Oct 8 are NZD-side risks
Lower-highs sequence from Wednesday's 0.5665 high; Monday Asia broke the 0.5600 psych floor to a fresh low.
The decline from Wednesday's 0.5665 high has carved lower highs through Thursday's London and NY selling. Friday's soft NFP print produced a first-hour-of-NY spike to the 0.5643 nfp high, which was fully faded and left a lower high on the trendline. Monday's Asia session broke back below 0.5600 psych to a fresh low at 0.5584 as safe-haven USD demand returned on Yemen headlines, with price now under EMA(20), which sits near 0.5606 alongside the 0.5607 weekly open, and RSI(14) at 34.
Support: 0.55842
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56074, 0.56427
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5607 weekly open and EMA(20) would neutralise the Asia break below 0.5600 psych
Failure to hold the 0.5584 fresh low extends the lower-lows sequence below Friday's 0.5586
Close above the 0.5643 nfp high breaks the lower highs trendline and the decline structure
Monday's 0.5621 high near the 50% of the decline fib caps any recovery while the lower highs trendline holds
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today and NZIER business confidence at 21:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wednesday, Thu–Fri base broken in Monday Asia.
The pair has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 0.5665 NY-session peak, with Thursday's London and NY hours doing most of the damage. Friday's post-NFP spike to the 0.5643 nfp high faded within hours. Safe-haven USD demand then pushed Monday's Asia session through Friday's 0.5586 low to a new week low at 0.5584, leaving price below 0.5600 psych and the ema20 with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 0.55842, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5609, 0.56427
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back above 0.5600 psych and the ema20 near 0.5609 would mark the Asia break below Friday's low as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5584 week low exposes the 0.5580 round number and extends the lower-low sequence
A move through the lower highs trendline and the 38.2% fib of the slide near 0.5615 would challenge the downtrend read
Only a recovery above the 0.5643 nfp high would break the week's lower-high structure
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; NZIER Business Confidence follows at 21:00 UTC
03:04 UTC
Downtrend, fresh week low in Asia · RSI 34 · price 0.55864
Lower highs since Wednesday, Friday's NFP bounce rejected.
Lower highs from Wednesday's 0.5665 peak and Friday's NFP high at 0.5643 define the H1 downtrend. The soft payrolls spike faded through the NY session, retracing inside the decline fib. Monday's Asia session opened just below Friday's close, lifted briefly and then broke to a fresh week low at 0.5585 as haven USD demand resurfaced. Price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), RSI(14) is near 34, and the 0.5600 psych handle and the weekly open at 0.5607 are overhead.
Support: 0.5585, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5607, 0.5643
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance below the 0.5585 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5550 round number
H1 close back above 0.5600 psych and the 0.5607 weekly open would mark a failed breakdown
Lower highs trendline near 0.5614; a break above it, with the nfp high at 0.5643 as the next cap, challenges the downtrend read
US ISM Services 14:00 UTC today and NZIER QSBO 21:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5665; NFP spike faded inside 0.5586–0.5643.
NZD/USD slid from 0.5671 on Tuesday to a 0.5586 week low in Friday's Asia session. The USD firmed on hawkish-Fed pricing and Hormuz risk, and the London and NY sessions carried most of the downside. The NFP miss lifted price to the 0.5643 nfp high in NY hours, but the spike was rejected just above the 61.8% retracement of the week's decline and faded back under the 38.2% by Friday's close, leaving the lower highs sequence intact. Monday's Asia session is drifting below the ema20 near 0.5615, below the monday high at 0.5621 and the 0.5607 week open, with RSI(14) at 46 and the 0.5600 psych level just underneath.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56145, 0.56208, 0.56427
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5621 monday high and 38.2% retracement breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 0.5643 nfp high
Failure to hold 0.5600 psych opens a retest of the 0.5586 week low
Sustained trade back above the ema20 near 0.5615 would shift the read toward a base off the week low
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read; a hot print rebuilds Fed-hike odds
RBNZ Breman speech Thu 08:00 UTC is the next NZD-specific risk to hike pricing
Lower highs from 0.5677; rebound off 0.5586 capped at 61.8% fib.
The slide from 0.5677 began after the RBA hike Tuesday and extended on a firm USD to a 0.5586 week low in Friday's Asia session, a brief false break of the 0.5600 round number. The payroll miss then drove a NY spike to the 0.5643 nfp high, a rejection right at the 61.8% fib of the decline, and the move faded back to 0.5610 into the close. Monday's Asia session opened near the 0.5607 weekly open, stalled at the 38.2% fib around 0.5621 and is back below EMA(20) at 0.5614, still under the lower-highs trendline from Wednesday, with RSI(14) at 46.
Support: 0.56074, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5614, 0.56208, 0.56427
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5621 38.2% fib and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence from 0.5677
Loss of the 0.5607 weekly open exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5586 week low
A return to the 0.5643 nfp high retests the 61.8% fib rejection
US ISM Services at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read
RBNZ's Breman on Thu 08:00 UTC could reprice the Oct-28 hike odds and move NZD
Lower highs intact from Tuesday; first higher low off 0.5586.
Lower highs have defined the window since Tuesday's 0.5677 peak. Thursday's NY-session selling broke 0.5600 and reached the 0.5586 week low in Friday's Asia session. The sharp US payrolls miss drove a spike to the 0.5643 nfp high, right at the 61.8% fib of the decline, but the move was rejected within NY hours and faded to 0.5606. Monday's open at the 0.5607 weekly open has held as a higher low at 0.5603, and price is now pressing the 38.2% fib at 0.5621 with EMA(20) flattening just below and EMA(50) overhead near 0.5618.
Support: 0.5607, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5631, 0.5643
What it said to watch
H1 closes above the 38.2% fib at 0.5621 and the lower-highs line open the 50% fib at 0.5631
A second rejection near the 0.5643 nfp high keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
A break back under the weekly open at 0.5607 and the 0.5600 psych level exposes the 0.5586 week low and voids the higher low
US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could rebuild Fed hike odds and shift this read; NZIER QSBO follows at 21:00 UTC