Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday; post-NFP spike capped at 0.5643.
The slide from Tuesday's 0.5677 high printed lower highs and lower lows, with USD strength taking out 0.5600 in Thursday's NY session and extending to the 0.5586 week low in Friday's Asia session. That low came on a marginally higher RSI(14) low, a mild bullish divergence. The weak US payrolls print (29K vs 90K) then spiked price to the 0.5643 nfp spike, at the 61.8% retracement and the lower-high line, before NY hours faded it back toward 0.5606. The 0.5607 weekly open has held so far, and price sits back above EMA(20) and on EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 53, just under the 38.2% fib and 0.5624 pre-nfp high.
Support: 0.5607, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5643, 0.5650
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5624 pre-nfp high and 38.2% fib exposes the 0.5643 nfp spike and the lower-high line
Acceptance above 0.5650, the prior floor, would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.5607 weekly open and 0.5600 psych puts the 0.5586 week low back in play
US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) and NZIER QSBO (Mon 21:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows, post-NFP spike rejected at 61.8%.
NZDUSD printed lower highs from Tuesday's 0.5677 top to Wednesday's 0.5665 lower high, then lower lows into Friday's Asia-session week low at 0.5586. The weak US payrolls print (29K vs 90K) spiked price to the 0.5643 NFP high, almost exactly the 61.8% retracement of the weekly decline and just under the lower-highs trendline. That spike was rejected during NY hours. Price is now compressed between EMA(20) near 0.5614 and the EMA(50) near 0.5617, with RSI(14) flat around 49 and the post-NFP low at 0.5606 plus the 0.5600 round number underneath.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5617, 0.5643, 0.5665
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5643 NFP high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the week's descending sequence and puts the 0.5665 lower high back in view
Sustained trade above the EMA50 near 0.5617 would turn the post-NFP fade into a range
Failure at the 0.5606 post-NFP low and the 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.5586 week low
US ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could rebuild or unwind Fed hike pricing, the pair's main driver
Lower highs run from Tuesday's 0.5677 Asia-session peak through Wednesday's 0.5665 high to Friday's 0.5643 spike, and Thursday's NY session drove the break under 0.5600 to the 0.5586 week low on Friday. The US payroll miss lifted the pair to the 61.8% retracement of the week's decline, where it was rejected. The bounce faded back below EMA(20) near 0.5613, and Monday opened marginally lower at 0.5607, just above the 0.5600 round number. RSI(14) near 44 sits mid-range, with no divergence against the lows.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56127, 0.56427, 0.56645
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.5643 nfp high and the 61.8% level breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 0.5665 wed high.
Sustained trade back above EMA(20) at 0.5613 would show the post-NFP bounce is being held rather than faded.
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number reopens the 0.5586 week low.
ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could rebuild or extend the post-NFP USD repricing and shift this read.
NZIER QSBO Mon 21:00 UTC tests the ~80%-priced RBNZ hike and could move NZD into the Asia session.