Lower highs intact since Tuesday; first higher low at 0.5606 above the 0.5586 week low.
Lower highs have formed since Tuesday's 0.5677 Asia-session peak. The RBA-day slide and Thursday's NY selling carried NZDUSD to a 0.5586 week low early Friday. The US payrolls miss then spiked price to the 0.5643 nfp high, tagging the 61.8% fib of the week's drop and the lower-highs trendline, before a rejection back to 0.5606 (Friday's nfp low). Price now holds just above EMA(20) at 0.5613 but sits under the fib 38.2 at 0.5621 and is pinned against EMA(50), with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.56133, 0.5606, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56207, 0.56427, 0.5650
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5643 nfp high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the week's sequence and exposes the 0.5650 broken floor
Failure to hold the 0.5606 nfp low reopens the 0.5586 week low and 0.5600 psych
Acceptance above the fib 38.2 at 0.5621 would turn the post-NFP bounce from stalling into extending
US ISM Services Mon Oct 5 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could rebuild Fed hike odds and materially shift this read
NZIER QSBO Mon 21:00 UTC and RBNZ Breman Thu Oct 8 08:00 UTC are the NZD-side risks
Lower highs intact from Tuesday; higher low at 0.5606 after the 0.5586 week low.
Lower highs have stepped down from Tuesday's 0.5677 high. The slide took out the 0.5600 psych level and printed a 0.5586 week low in Friday's Asia session, with Thursday's NY session doing most of the damage. The US payroll miss (29K vs 90K) spiked price to a 0.5643 nfp high, right at the 61.8% fib of the Tuesday-to-Friday drop and the lower-highs trendline, but the NY session faded it back to 0.5611, just under EMA(20) at 0.5613 with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 0.56057, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.56224, 0.56427
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 0.5622 prior high (38.2% fib) would extend the higher low built off the 0.5606 pre-nfp low
Failure to hold the 0.5606 pre-nfp low exposes the 0.5600 psych level and the 0.5586 week low
A break of the 0.5643 nfp high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Repeated hourly closes below EMA(20) at 0.5613 keep the post-NFP bounce contained
US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC) and NZIER QSBO (Mon 21:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5677; higher low off the 0.5586 week low.
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's London-session high at 0.5677 carried price to a 0.5586 week low in Friday's Asia session. The sharp US payrolls miss spiked the pair to an NFP high at 0.5643, almost exactly the 61.8% fib of the week's decline. Supply capped the move there, and the NY session faded price back below EMA(20) near 0.5613. A higher low at 0.5606 is holding above the 0.5600 psych, with RSI(14) flat around 48.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5622, 0.5643, 0.5650
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5606 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 0.5600 psych and 0.5586 week low back in play
Close above the 38.2% fib at 0.5622 shifts focus to the 0.5643 NFP high and the 0.5650 broken floor, the decline fib's upper zone
ISM Services Mon Oct 5, 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could rebuild Fed hike odds and shift this read; NZIER QSBO Mon 21:00 UTC adds NZD-side risk
The week has been a steady sequence of lower highs from Monday's 0.5677 peak, with most of the selling in London and NY hours. That slide broke psych 0.56 and set a 0.5586 week low in Asia today. The weak US payrolls print (29K vs 90K) spiked the pair to a 0.5643 nfp high at the NY open, but the move stalled at the 61.8% retracement and the lower-highs trendline, then capped twice at the fib 50% near 0.5631. Price has since slipped back under ema20 at 0.5613 and EMA(50) near 0.5618, with RSI(14) easing to ~46.
Support: 0.56057, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.5631, 0.56427
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5643 nfp high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the 61.8% cap
Reclaiming ema20 and the fib 50% at 0.5631 would turn the payrolls bounce into a higher-low structure
Loss of the 0.5606 pre-nfp low, then psych 0.56, exposes the 0.5586 week low and resumes the lower-low sequence
US ISM Services (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) and NZIER QSBO (Mon 21:00 UTC) could materially shift this read after the weekend
Lower highs intact since Monday; post-NFP chop 0.5600–0.5643.
NZD/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's open near 0.5674. The heaviest legs came during NY hours on Tuesday and Thursday, and Friday's Asia session set a week low at 0.5586. The soft NFP (29K vs 90K) spiked the pair through the 0.5624 London high to an NFP high at 0.5643, just shy of the 61.8% retracement of the week's decline, where it met the lower-highs trendline. The whole move faded back to 0.5611 within three hours, which marks a false break. Price now sits marginally below EMA(20) near 0.5612, with RSI(14) back to neutral around 51, holding just above the 0.5606 pre-NFP low.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5643, 0.5650
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5606 pre-NFP low puts the 0.5600 psych handle back in play, with the 0.5586 week low beneath
Failure to hold 0.5600 into the weekly close would extend the lower-low sequence and mark a 6th straight weekly loss
Reclaim of the 0.5624 London high reopens the 0.5643 NFP high and the lower-highs trendline; acceptance above it brings the 0.5650 prior floor into view
US ISM Services PMI Mon Oct 5 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via US yields
Lower highs since Monday intact; Friday higher low at 0.5606.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's 0.5687 peak, with the Tuesday and Thursday declines through the Asia and London sessions taking it to a 0.5586 week low early Friday. The 29K NFP miss lifted the pair to the 0.5643 NFP high in the first hour of NY, past the 50% fib of the week's drop. The spike stalled under the lower-high trendline and faded to 0.5621, just above EMA(20) at 0.5615 and hugging EMA(50) near 0.5619, with RSI(14) at 55 and the London high at 0.5624 capping the 38.2% retracement.
Support: 0.5615, 0.5606, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5643, 0.5665
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5643 NFP high and the lower-high trendline breaks this week's lower-high sequence, exposing Wednesday's lower high at 0.5665
Loss of the 0.5606 higher low and the rebound line puts the 0.5586 week low back in focus
Failure to clear the 0.5624 London high keeps the rebound contained below the 38.2% fib
A return below 0.5600 into the Friday close would unwind the post-NFP rebound
US ISM Services Mon Oct 5 14:00 GMT (f/c 55.7) and its prices-paid component could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; post-NFP spike capped at the lower-highs line.
The week topped at 0.5687 in Monday's NY session. Price then made a lower high at 0.5665 on Wednesday and a week low at 0.5586 in Friday's Asia session. The broad US jobs miss (29K vs 90K, wages 0.1% m/m) sent the pair to an NFP high of 0.5643 in the first hour of NY, where it met rejection at the descending lower-highs line just below the 0.5650 prior floor. Price has since eased back to the Tue low at 0.5626, sitting on the 38.2% retracement, with price back above both EMAs and RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5643, 0.5650, 0.5665
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5643 NFP high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.5650 prior floor and the 0.5665 lower high in play
Failure to hold the 0.5626 Tue low reopens the 0.5600 psych level, and then the 0.5586 week low
US Factory Orders at 14:00 UTC and ISM Services on Monday could shift the post-NFP read
Dovish follow-through in US yields would add weight to the rebound; renewed yield strength revives the downtrend read
Daily lower highs since Monday; 0.5586 week low then retracement capped at 0.5624.
Lower highs have printed every day since Monday's 0.5687 peak, with a trendline off Wednesday's 0.5665 high capping each bounce. The slide sped up through Thursday's London and NY sessions as the dollar hit a yearly high and the pair lost 0.5600. Friday's Asia session set a 0.5586 week low before a rebound stalled at 0.5624, the 38.2% fib of the week's move, leaving price just above the ema20 but below EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 54.
Support: 0.5611, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5637, 0.5650
What it said to watch
US September payrolls at 12:30 GMT (NFP f/c 90K, AHE 0.3%) could materially shift this read
H1 close above 0.5624 (38.2% fib) breaks the lower highs sequence and exposes the 0.5637 thu high, then the 0.5650 former floor
Loss of the ema20 at 0.5611 and the 0.5600 psych handle puts the 0.5586 week low back in play; a close below it confirms a fresh lower-low
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; bounce capped near 38.2% retracement.
The week has printed a clean lower-high sequence from Monday's 0.5687 peak. Supply capped Wednesday's PCE bounce at 0.5665 (wed high), and Thursday's London session took the pair through the 0.5600 psych handle as USD pushed to a yearly high. Friday's Asian-session low at the 0.5586 week low drew a rebound to 0.5624. That high sits just under the 38.2% retracement of the week's range and on the descending trendline, forming another lower high, and price has since slipped back below the ema20 near 0.5610 with RSI(14) flat around 50.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5610, 0.56237, 0.56645
What it said to watch
US September NFP at 12:30 GMT (~90 min) could materially shift this read; the digest flags 0.5600 and 0.5625–0.5650 as the reaction zones
H1 close above the 0.5624 lower high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and opens 0.5665 (wed high)
Failure to hold the 0.5600 psych handle re-exposes the 0.5586 week low; a close below extends the lower-low sequence
Sustained trade back above the ema20 at 0.5610 would shift the rebound from fading to basing
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; bounce from week low stalling below 38.2% fib.
Each day has printed a lower high since Monday's 0.5687 peak. The heaviest selling came during NY hours on Tuesday and Thursday as USD pressed yearly highs on rising yields, and the week low at 0.5586 printed in Friday's Asia session. The rebound back through the 0.5600 psych handle has reclaimed EMA(20) but stalled at the 0.5624 session high, just under the 38.2% fib of the week's drop, with price still below EMA(50) and RSI(14) only near 54.
Support: 0.5607, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5637, 0.5665
What it said to watch
US jobs report at 12:30 GMT today could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.5637 thu high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the lower-highs trendline near 0.5640
Failure at the 0.5624 session high and a loss of ema20 puts 0.5600 psych back in focus
Break below the 0.5586 week low extends the lower-low structure
0.5665 wed high marks the last lower high before Thursday's drop
NZDUSD has held a lower-highs sequence from Monday's 0.5687 peak through the Wednesday high at 0.5665. The main legs lower came in Tuesday's NY session and Thursday's London-NY hours, as USD pushed to yearly highs on firm yields. Friday's Asia session dip to a 0.5586 week low failed to hold and reversed back above the 0.5600 psych handle and EMA(20), and RSI(14) has recovered to ~57 from near 30 on Thursday. The London bounce has stalled at the 0.5624 session high, at the 38.2% retracement of the Wed-Fri drop and just under the EMA(50) and the Tuesday low near 0.5626.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56237, 0.5626, 0.56645
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT today (f/c 90K, prev 162K) could materially shift this read.
H1 close above the 0.5626 Tuesday low clears the 50% retracement and challenges the lower-highs line.
Failure to hold the 0.5600 psych level and EMA(20) puts the 0.5586 week low back in focus.
H1 close below the 0.5586 week low resumes the lower-low sequence and negates the false break.
Lower highs and lower lows all week; Friday bounce testing Thursday's lower high.
Highs have stepped lower since Monday's NY spike to 0.5687. Thursday's London-NY selling took NZDUSD through 0.5600 as the USD hit a yearly high on firm US yields. Friday's Asia dip to the 0.5586 week low reversed quickly, and the London-open bounce has reclaimed EMA(20) near 0.5610 to test the thu high at 0.5622, just under the 38.2% fib of the week's drop and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 55 and a mild bullish divergence across the 0.5594–0.5586 lows pointing to fading downside momentum.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5622, 0.5650, 0.5665
What it said to watch
US September NFP at 12:30 GMT could decide whether the thu high at 0.5622 caps the bounce or gives way
H1 close above 0.5622 opens the path to the prior floor at 0.5650 and the lower-highs trendline; the wed high at 0.5665 is the last lower high in the sequence
A slip back below ema20 at 0.5610 and the 0.5600 psych handle puts the week low at 0.5586 back in play
H1 close below 0.5586 confirms a fresh lower-low and voids the bullish divergence
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Friday rebound testing the 0.5620 lower-high zone.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs from Monday's 0.5687 NY peak, and the week's decline stretched through the 0.5600 round number to a 0.5586 week low in Friday's Asia session as US yields pressed multi-decade highs. The heaviest legs came in Tuesday's slide after the RBA, which broke the 0.5650 old floor, and in Thursday's London-NY selling. Friday's rebound has reclaimed the ema20 near 0.5609 but stalled at 0.5620, where the ema50 meets Thursday's 0.5622 lower high. That level sits just below the 38.2% retracement of the week's decline, and the fresh low printed with a higher RSI(14) than Thursday's, a bullish divergence inside an intact downtrend.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5622, 0.5637, 0.5650
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 GMT today (f/c 90K) and AHE could materially shift this read; a strong print puts the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5586 week low back in focus
H1 close above the 0.5622 lower high and ema50 opens 0.5637, Thursday's prior high and the 50% retracement of the week's decline
Failure to hold the ema20 at 0.5609 and a close back under 0.5600 would leave the rebound as a retracement within the downtrend
Beyond 0.5637, the 0.5650 old floor broken on Tuesday is the next resistance
Lower highs since Monday; Friday low 0.5586 followed by recovery back above 0.5600.
Lower highs since Monday's 0.5687 peak, with the 0.5665 wed high capping the midweek bounce. The heaviest selling came in NY hours on Tuesday and Thursday as the USD pushed to a yearly high, and Thursday's NY leg broke the 0.5600 psych level. Friday's Asia session printed a week low at 0.5586, then recovered back above 0.5600 and the ema20. Price is now pressing the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday-Friday drop near 0.5616, with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5622, 0.5635, 0.5665
What it said to watch
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~6h) could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the ema20 and psych 0.5600 resumes the lower-low sequence toward the week low at 0.5586
A close above the thu high at 0.5622 and the 50% retracement (0.5625) opens the fib 61.8 at 0.5635. The lower highs trendline near 0.5643 and the wed high at 0.5665 sit above that
Lower highs 0.5687/0.5665/0.5622; Asia bounce testing 0.5622.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since Monday at 0.5687, 0.5665 (Wednesday's Williams-driven spike) and 0.5622. A broad USD bid on firm US yields drove the main legs lower in London and NY hours, through the 0.5600 round number to a 0.5586 week low in Asia. The Asian rebound has lifted price back above the ema20 (~0.5608), and it now sits near the 38.2% retracement of the drop from the wed high (0.5616), just under the ema50 / lower high cluster at 0.5620-22. RSI(14) has recovered to 53 on a bullish divergence: the 0.5594 and 0.5586 lows printed with RSI near 32, versus ~22 at Thursday's London low around 0.5599.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5622, 0.5650, 0.5665
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5622 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 0.5650 prior floor and the Monday-Wednesday lower-highs trendline (~0.5640) sit above
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 0.5600 round number, then a break of the 0.5586 week low, resumes the lower-low sequence
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h, f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday; break of 0.5600 then reclaim.
Lower highs have built since Monday's NY spike to 0.5687. The RBA-day break of 0.5650, then Thursday's London and NY selling, took the pair through 0.5600 psych as the USD printed a yearly high. Friday's Asia session pushed to a 0.5586 week low before recovering to 0.5611, back above EMA(20) but below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 52 and the bounce sitting at the 23.6% level of the Mon-Fri decline fib. Supply has capped each rally beneath the descending resistance line, with the 0.5622 lower high and the 0.5637 prior-day high framing the overhead.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5622, 0.5637, 0.5665
What it said to watch
H1 close back below 0.5600 psych and the 0.5586 week low would resume the lower-low sequence and void the false break
H1 close above the 0.5622 lower high would break Thursday's sequence, with the 38.2% fib near 0.5625 and the 0.5637 prior-day high next
Descending resistance line from Monday's high runs near 0.5644 today, below the 0.5665 wed high
US NFP at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) and AHE could materially shift this read
03:04 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling at EMA20 · RSI 41 · price 0.56046
Lower highs and lower lows daily since Monday's NY high.
Each session since Monday's NY high at 0.5687 has printed a lower high (0.5677, 0.5665, Thursday's 0.5637 thu high, then 0.5622). Pullbacks have stalled at or below EMA(20) near 0.5606. Thursday's NY session drove the break of 0.5600 psych as the USD pushed to a yearly high on hawkish ISM prices paid. Friday's Asia session swept to a 0.5586 week low before recovering to 0.5604, a retest of EMA(20) from below that sits under the 23.6% retracement (~0.5610) of the Mon-Fri drop.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56224, 0.56374
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5622 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.5637 thu high
Failure to hold 0.5600 psych, then a break of the 0.5586 week low, extends the lower-low pattern
US September NFP today at 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read in either direction
Bounce rejected below EMA(20) and the 23.6% of the Mon-Fri drop keeps the downtrend structure intact
Lower highs line from Monday's high, near 0.5644 now, caps the broader sequence
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, 0.5600 broken.
NZD/USD has printed a sequence of lower highs since Monday's NY-session peak at 0.5687. Thursday's London and NY sessions broke below the 0.5600 psych level as the USD pushed to a yearly high, and the lower-high trendline capped the late bounce near 0.5612. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) after today's Asia-session dip to a 0.5590 week low, with RSI(14) in the low 30s and no bullish divergence yet.
Support: 0.55902
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56123, 0.5626
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 0.5600 psych level would negate the breakout and retest from below
A move through the 0.5612 lower high and trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5626 Tue low, now former support, in view
Failure to hold the 0.5590 week low extends the lower-low sequence
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read; a soft print is the main relief-bounce risk
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday, tight Asian range near 0.5600.
Lower highs all week: Monday's 0.5687 NY high, the Wednesday PCE bounce capped at the 0.5664 wed high, then Thursday's London rebound at the 0.5622 lower high, which sits near the 38.2% of the wed high fib. The push through the 0.5600 psych handle came in Thursday's NY session as the USD hit a yearly high on firm claims and hot ISM prices paid, printing a 0.5593 week low. Price is now flat in the Asian session just under the ema20 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 40 and hourly ranges compressing.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5593
Resistance: 0.5606, 0.5622, 0.5664
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5593 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Sustained trade back above the ema20 and the 0.5622 lower high breaks the lower highs line drawn from the wed high
Repeated H1 closes under the 0.5600 psych handle would confirm the Thursday break rather than a pause
Recovery to the 0.5664 wed high would negate this week's downtrend structure
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read