Lower highs from Monday's 0.5687 peak; tight base 0.5592-0.5609 after Thursday's NY drop.
Since Monday's NY-session high at 0.5687, NZD/USD has printed successive lower highs at 0.5677, 0.5665 and 0.5622. The weekly open at 0.5650 gave way on Tuesday, and the pair lost the 0.5600 psych handle during NY hours Thursday as USD pushed to 18-month highs on the jobless-claims beat. Price has since compressed just above the week low at 0.5592 and below EMA(20), with RSI(14) recovering to the mid-40s from oversold territory.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5592
Resistance: 0.5622, 0.5650
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.5622 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the week-decline fib 50% near 0.5640 in view
Failure to hold the 0.5592 week low confirms a fresh lower-low below the 0.5600 psych level
A reclaim of the 0.5650 weekly open, also the broken floor, would signal the slide is stalling
US NFP, unemployment and AHE Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Daily lower highs and lower lows since Monday; basing just above 0.5600.
NZDUSD has printed a lower high every day since Monday's NY-session peak at 0.5687, with a dollar bid driving each leg lower. Tuesday's slide followed the RBA decision. Thursday's drop came at London open and again into the NY session, after a hot ISM prices-paid print, taking price to a 0.5592 week low. Price is basing just above the 0.5600 psych level but holds below EMA(20) near 0.5611, with the lower-high line from Wednesday's post-PCE spike capping each bounce and RSI(14) only recovering to the low 40s.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5592
Resistance: 0.5611, 0.5622, 0.5637
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5622 lower high breaks the lower-high line and the daily sequence
Failure to hold 0.5600 psych and the 0.5592 week low extends the downtrend
A recovery through the 0.5637 thu high brings the 38.2% week decline fib near 0.5629 into play
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) and AHE could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's NY peak.
Lower highs have stacked up since Monday's NY-session peak at 0.5687. Wednesday's bounce on the softer PCE read was capped at 0.5665, and Thursday's NY session took the pair to a week low of 0.5593 after firm US claims and a hot ISM prices-paid print lifted the dollar. Price is now basing just above the 0.5600 psych level, below the ema20 near 0.5611, with RSI(14) recovering to around 41 from the lows.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933
Resistance: 0.5611, 0.56224, 0.56546
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5622 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the 38.2% week decline fib near 0.5629
Failure to hold the 0.5593 week low extends the lower-low sequence below the 0.5600 psych level
Weekly open at 0.5655 aligns with the 61.8% week decline fib, the upper cap of the lost 0.5625-0.5650 zone
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) could materially shift this read
Since Monday's NY-session peak at 0.5687, the pair has printed lower highs: Wednesday's post-PCE spike stalled at 0.5665 and Thursday's London bounce capped at the 0.5622 lower high, with US yields rather than China data driving the move. The NY leg after the ISM prices-paid jump set a week low at 0.5593. Price is now back near 0.5600, retesting EMA(20) around 0.5612 and the descending trendline of lower highs, with RSI(14) recovering to about 42 from the low-30s.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933
Resistance: 0.56115, 0.56224, 0.56546
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5622 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; the weekly open at 0.5655 sits above the lost 0.5625-0.5650 zone
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5593 week low confirms another lower low
Rejection at EMA(20) near 0.5612 and the descending trendline keeps the downtrend read intact
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 90K) and tonight's Fedspeak could materially shift this read
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC is a secondary risk next to US yields
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's high; stalling just above 0.5600.
Each day since Monday's NY-session week high at 0.5687 has printed a lower high. Wednesday's 0.5629–0.5665 range gave way through Asia and London on Thursday, and the NY session extended the slide to a 0.5593 week low after firm US claims and a hot ISM prices-paid print. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.5610 with RSI(14) around 39, the last bounce was capped at the 0.5622 lower high, and demand is stepping in at the 0.5600 psych handle, where three probes to 0.5593–0.5595 have held into the late NY session.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55933
Resistance: 0.5610, 0.56224, 0.56291
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5622 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the daily lower-high sequence
Hourly acceptance below the 0.5593 week low and the 0.5600 psych handle extends the lower-low structure
Wednesday's low at 0.5629 aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the Mon–Thu decline, the next area to watch for rejection if price bounces
Fedspeak from Bowman, Williams and Cook (19:00–19:30 UTC) and Friday's NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through the week · RSI 34 · price 0.55952
Mon–Wed range broken lower; trading below 0.5600 psych handle.
Lower highs have followed Monday's 0.5687 NY-session high. The Mon–Wed range floor near 0.5626 gave way in Thursday's Asia session, and the slide extended through London and NY. Wednesday's PCE-driven spike to 0.5665 faded within the hour. Today's firm claims and hot ISM prices paid pushed price to a fresh week low at 0.5594, under the 0.5600 psych handle. Price holds below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 34, heavy but not yet oversold.
Support: 0.55938
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56224, 0.56546
What it said to watch
H1 closes back above the 0.5600 psych handle would mark the break below as a false break
A recovery through the 0.5622 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens 0.5626–0.5655 toward the weekly open
Failure to hold the 0.5594 week low extends the downtrend into fresh post-June lows
Fed's Bowman (19:00 UTC) and Williams/Cook (19:30 UTC) today, then US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 0.5687 peak; trading at the week low.
The week opened at 0.5655, and Monday's NY high at 0.5687 has capped every rally since. The 0.5650 floor gave way after the RBA in Tuesday's Asia session, followed by a sequence of lower highs at 0.5677, 0.5665 and Thursday's 0.5622. Rising US yields and firm claims extended the slide below the 0.5600 psych handle during NY hours to a week low of 0.5594, with price held under the EMA(20) near 0.5611 and RSI(14) around 32.
Support: 0.55938
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5611, 0.56224
What it said to watch
Fed speakers today (Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC) and Friday's NFP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.5594 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 0.5600 psych handle and the EMA(20) near 0.5611 would signal the NY-session leg is stalling
H1 close above the 0.5622 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line and opens the 0.5630 fib 38.2%
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC adds NZ-specific event risk
16:04 UTC
Downtrend, fresh week low into NY · RSI 34 · price 0.55998
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 0.5687 peak.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's NY-session peak at 0.5687. Thursday's 0.5622 bounce stalled at the lower-high trendline, and price is holding below EMA(20) and EMA(50). Asia and London sessions today drove the break under 0.5630, then firm US claims and a hot ISM prices-paid print pushed NY to a fresh week low at 0.5594, leaving price pinned at the 0.5600 round number with RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 0.55938
Resistance: 0.56224, 0.56406, 0.56546
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5594 week low extends the lower-low sequence below 0.5600
H1 close above the 0.5622 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline read
A recovery toward the 0.5641 fib 50% of the week's decline would test the broken 0.5625–0.5650 zone
The 0.5655 week open sits just above the broken 0.5650 floor and caps the week's range read
Fedspeak today (Jefferson 17:30, Bowman 19:00, Williams/Cook 19:30 UTC) and ANZ-Roy Morgan confidence at 21:00 UTC could shift this read
US NFP Fri 12:30 UTC is the main risk for the week's structure
15:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs each day · RSI 37 · price 0.56069
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 0.5687 NY peak.
NZDUSD has set lower highs every day since Monday's NY-session peak at 0.5687. Tuesday's RBA-driven slide took out the 0.5650 area, and Thursday's London session extended to a week low at 0.5599. The rebound from there stalled at the 0.5622 bounce high, near the 23.6% week fib, and firm US jobless claims plus hot ISM prices paid pressed price back below EMA(20) at 0.5619 toward today's NY low at 0.5605. RSI(14) near 37 stays capped below 50 on each bounce.
Support: 0.56049, 0.55989
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.56224, 0.56546
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5622 bounce high and EMA(20) would break the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5599 week low confirms a fresh lower-low below 0.5600
Fedspeak from 17:30 UTC (Jefferson, Bowman, Williams, Cook) could shift this read; Friday NFP (f/c 90K) is the larger risk
Weekly open at 0.5655, aligned with the broken 0.5650 floor, marks the upper bound of this week's structure
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday; Thursday bounce stalling under EMA20.
NZD/USD has printed lower highs since Monday's 0.5687 NY-session peak. Tuesday's RBA-driven slide reached 0.5626, and Wednesday's PCE-miss bounce was capped at the 0.5665 lower high before fading back under the 0.5655 weekly open. Thursday's London session extended to a 0.5599 week low with the Kiwi tracking US yields; the rebound stalled at the 0.5622 today high, with price back under EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56224, 0.5626, 0.56645
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, inside the current bar, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.5626 tuesday low reclaims former support and opens the 38.2% week drop fib near 0.5633
Failure to hold the 0.5599 week low extends the lower-low sequence below 0.5600
Only a break of the lower highs trendline from the 0.5665 lower high would neutralise the downtrend structure
ANZ-Roy Morgan confidence at 21:00 UTC and Friday's NFP are the next event risks
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's peak, rebound capped below the 0.5630 wed low.
NZDUSD has printed a steady run of lower highs since Monday's NY-session peak at 0.5687. Tuesday's RBA-driven break and a Thursday Asia-into-London slide took price to a 0.5599 week low. Wednesday's PCE spike stalled at 0.5645 under the lower highs trendline, and today's bounce to the 0.5622 bounce high was rejected after firmer US jobless claims; that high sits near the 23.6% retracement of the week decline. Price holds below EMA(20) near 0.5619 and EMA(50) with RSI(14) at 34, while the wed low at 0.5630 and the weekly open at 0.5655 sit overhead.
Support: 0.55989
Resistance: 0.56224, 0.5630, 0.56546
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5622 bounce high and EMA(20) breaks today's lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5630 wed low opens a retest of the weekly open at 0.5655 and the lower highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5599 week low confirms a lower-low beneath the 0.5600 round number
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, then Friday NFP, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday's 0.5687 peak; fresh week low under Wed low.
Since Monday's NY-session high at 0.5687 the pair has printed a sequence of lower highs: Tuesday's Asia high at 0.5677 after the RBA hike, and Wednesday's post-PCE spike to 0.5665 that faded, keeping the lower-highs trendline intact. Thursday's Asia session gave up the Wed low at 0.5630, and London open extended the slide to a week low at 0.5604, with US yields and NZ election risk weighing. RSI(14) near 25 is oversold and price sits about 18 pips under EMA(20) at 0.5625, which capped every hourly bounce today. Price is now more than 50 pips below the weekly open at 0.5655.
Support: 0.56044, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56251, 0.56301, 0.56546
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Mfg (14:00 UTC) with Waller and Fedspeak could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.5604 week low and the 0.5600 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above EMA(20) at 0.5625 and the 0.5630 wed low would point to a corrective bounce toward the 50% fib near 0.5646
Lower-highs trendline from Monday's peak, near 0.5655 alongside the weekly open, marks the structural cap
05:05 UTC
Downtrend, fresh week low · RSI 32 · price 0.5621
Lower highs since Monday's 0.5687 peak; Tuesday low broken in Asia.
NZDUSD has printed a sequence of lower highs since Monday's NY-session peak at 0.5687. Wednesday's spike to the 0.5665 wed high around the US data drew a rejection, and the pair broke the 0.5626 tuesday low in today's Asia session to a new week low at 0.5618. Price sits below the ema20 near 0.5632 and the EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 32, as firm US yields and a bid dollar outweigh the China PMI beats.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5626, 0.5632, 0.5665
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the tuesday low at 0.5626 and the ema20 near 0.5632 would turn today's break into a false break
Failure to hold the week low at 0.5618 exposes the 0.5600 round number
A move through the wed high at 0.5665 and the lower highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read; 0.5653 marks the 50% of the week's drop
US ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC plus Waller, Bowman and Williams later in the NY session could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday's 0.5687 peak; tight range just above the week low.
Highs have stepped lower since Monday's 0.5687 NY-session peak. The dominant move of the week was Tuesday's NY-hours slide to the 0.5626 week low, as firmer US yields kept NZD heavy. Wednesday's PCE-driven bounce stalled at 0.5664, the Wed high and the 61.8% retracement of the Monday–Tuesday drop; since then price has slipped back under the ema20 and the 0.5655 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 37 and the Asian range compressing just above the week low.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5640, 0.5655, 0.5664
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5626 week low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the path to 0.5600 psych
Reclaim of the ema20 and a close back above the 0.5655 weekly open would test the lower-high trendline
Close above the 0.5664 Wed high breaks the lower-high sequence from Monday
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing and Fed's Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs below descending line, holding just above week low.
Monday's NY push to the 0.5687 week high failed. The pair has printed lower highs since, with Tuesday's NY slide setting the 0.5626 week low. Wednesday's soft-PCE spike stalled at 0.5665, the pce high, almost exactly at the 61.8% retracement of the week's drop. Growth beats then absorbed the miss and price faded back below the weekly open and EMA(20). Price now sits a few pips above the wed low with RSI(14) in the mid-30s and Asia ranges compressed to sub-ATR bars.
Support: 0.56291, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5638, 0.56546, 0.56645
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5626 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.5655 weekly open and EMA(20) near 0.5638 would ease the downtrend read
A break of the descending lower-highs line and the 0.5665 pce high (61.8% fib) breaks the lower-high structure
US jobless claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing with Waller at 14:00 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Thu 21:00 UTC is a secondary NZD risk