Lower highs from 0.5687 Monday; lows basing 0.5626–0.5630.
Lower highs have stacked since Monday's NY-session peak at 0.5687. Tuesday's London-into-NY selloff to the 0.5626 week low was the dominant leg. Wednesday's post-PCE spike stalled at 0.5664, the wed high and 61.8% fib of that drop, and the USD recovered as GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats absorbed the soft inflation data. Price has since slipped back under the H1 ema20 at 0.5638 and sits just above the wed low at 0.5630, with RSI(14) near 37 and below the weekly open.
Support: 0.56301, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5638, 0.56546, 0.56645
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5626 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward fresh post-June lows
Recovery above the ema20 and then the 0.5655 weekly open would ease downside pressure; a close above the 0.5664 wed high breaks the lower-highs line
US Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing plus Waller 14:00 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence Thu 21:00 UTC is a secondary NZD risk
Lower highs since Monday; Wednesday bounce rejected at 61.8% fib.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's NY-session peak at 0.5687, and Tuesday's London-to-NY slide set the week's low at the 0.5626 Tuesday low. Wednesday's bounce stalled at the 61.8% fib near 0.5664 around the US PCE/GDP releases, as strong growth data offset the soft PCE and pulled price back through the 0.5650 pivot and EMA(20) into a 0.5629 Wednesday low. RSI(14) near 33 is in the lower band with no divergence yet, and price is drifting just above the Tuesday low after NY close.
Support: 0.56291, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5639, 0.5650, 0.56639
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5626 Tuesday low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5600 range floor
Reclaiming EMA(20) and the 0.5650 pivot, then clearing the lower-highs trendline near 0.5659, would break the sequence of lower highs
A second push through the 61.8% fib at 0.5664 invalidates the downtrend read
ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC Thu, plus jobless claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
The week has printed lower highs since Monday's NY-session peak at 0.5687. Tuesday's NY sell-off set the week low at 0.5626 before a bounce. Wednesday's post-PCE spike to the 0.5665 PCE high stalled at the 61.8% retracement of that drop and fully reversed as the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats offset the soft inflation print. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.5641 and the 0.5655 weekly open, pressing the Wednesday low at 0.5630 with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5641, 0.5655, 0.5665
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5626 week low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.5600 range floor in place since April
H1 close back above EMA(20) at 0.5641 and the 0.5655 weekly open would ease the downtrend read
Break above the lower-highs trendline near 0.5661 and the 0.5665 PCE high invalidates the lower-high sequence
Kashkari tonight (22:00 UTC), then Thursday's ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
20:05 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through the week · RSI 33 · price 0.5632
Lower highs Mon-Wed, pressing week low.
H1 has printed lower highs since Monday's NY-session week high at 0.5687. Tuesday's post-RBA slide, extended in NY hours, set the week low at 0.5626. Wednesday's soft-PCE spike stalled at the fib 61.8 retracement near 0.5664 and was fully reversed as the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats lifted USD, leaving price back under the weekly open, below EMA20 and sitting on the Wed low near 0.5630 with RSI(14) in the low 30s.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5641, 0.5655, 0.5664
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5626 week low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.5600 range floor
Recovery above EMA20 (~0.5641) and the 0.5655 weekly open would ease pressure on the Wed low
Close above the fib 61.8 at 0.5664 breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Goolsbee/Kashkari tonight and Thu claims (12:30 UTC) plus ISM prices paid (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs 0.5687 → 0.5677 → 0.5664; lows at 0.5626/0.5632.
NZDUSD has printed successive lower highs since Monday's NY-session peak at 0.5687. Tuesday's slide set the week low at 0.5626. Wednesday's recovery met rejection at 0.5664, the wed high and the 61.8% retracement of that drop, and the NY session unwound it as US GDP and Chicago PMI beats outweighed the soft core PCE. Price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), just above the 0.5632 session low, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.56317, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56423, 0.56546, 0.56645
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5626 week low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.5600 round number, the range floor since April.
A return above ema20 at 0.5642 and the 0.5655 weekly open would ease the downtrend read.
A close above the 0.5664 wed high and the lower-high trendline breaks this week's lower-high structure.
Fedspeak tonight from Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari, then Thursday's ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read.
Lower highs off 0.5687, price back at the low end of the 0.5626-0.5664 range.
Monday's NY session printed the week high at 0.5687. Tuesday's post-RBA slide then extended through NY hours to the week low at 0.5626. Wednesday's Williams-driven bounce stalled at 0.5664, the wed high and the 61.8% retracement of that drop, when strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI prints erased the post-PCE USD dip. Price has since slipped back below EMA20 near 0.5643 and sits on the wed low at 0.5630, with RSI(14) in the low 40s.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5643, 0.5664, 0.5687
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5626 week low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.5600 psych floor
Recovery above the ema20 at 0.5643, then the 0.5664 wed high, breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence
Fed Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, plus Thu ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC is a medium-tier risk to the wed low hold
Lower highs 0.5687 / 0.5677 / 0.5665 with Tuesday's lower low at 0.5626; price back at Wednesday's session low.
NZDUSD has set lower highs all week. The sequence runs from the 0.5687 week high in Monday's NY session to 0.5677 early Tuesday, and Tuesday's London-NY slide to the 0.5626 week low extended the downtrend. The Williams-driven rebound stalled at the fib 61.8 of the Monday-Tuesday drop near 0.5665 in the first hour of NY Wednesday, after strong ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI prints erased the soft-PCE spike. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.5645 and below EMA(50), at the 0.5637 session low, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.5637, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5645, 0.5665, 0.5687
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5626 week low confirms a fresh lower-low and exposes the 0.5600 range floor
Recovery through the ema20 at 0.5645 and a close above 0.5665 (fib 61.8 / lower-high line) would break the lower-high sequence
Repeated holds at the 0.5637 session low would point to a base forming above Tuesday's low
Fed Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight from 19:25 UTC, and ISM Manufacturing with Waller Thu 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday, rebound capped at fib 61.8.
From the 0.5655 weekly open, Monday's NY spike to the 0.5687 week high was rejected. Tuesday's London-NY slide then set the 0.5626 week low as RBA guidance weighed on antipodeans. Wednesday's rebound on the soft US core PCE and Williams' remarks stalled at the fib 61.8 near 0.5664, extending the lower-highs sequence. Price has since slipped back beneath the ema20 around 0.5645, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5645, 0.5664, 0.5687
What it said to watch
H1 close above the fib 61.8 at 0.5664 breaks the lower-highs trendline and weakens the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.5630 asian low and 0.5626 week low confirms a lower low, with the 0.5600 range floor next
Price holding below the ema20 at 0.5645 keeps rebounds capped
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight and ISM Manufacturing Thu 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC is a secondary risk during the Asia session
Lower high capped at 61.8% fib; higher lows off 0.5626 week low.
NZDUSD has put in a lower high since Monday's NY-session peak at the 0.5687 week high. Tuesday's post-RBA slide extended through NY hours to print the 0.5626 week low. Wednesday's rebound, helped by Williams' remarks and the soft core PCE print, met rejection at the 61.8% fib near 0.5664 and has faded back to the ema20 around 0.5647 with RSI(14) near 45, while higher lows off 0.5626 keep the session low at 0.5637 as the first shelf beneath.
Support: 0.5637, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5647, 0.5664, 0.5687
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5664 (61.8% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.5687 week high
Failure to hold the 0.5637 session low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.5626 week low
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari (19:25–22:00 UTC) could materially shift this read after the PCE miss
Jobless Claims and ISM Mfg tomorrow 12:30–14:00 UTC; ISM Prices Paid is the key inflation input
Lower highs since Monday's high, higher lows off Tuesday's trough; contracting.
Monday's NY-session push to the 0.5687 week high gave way to a Tuesday slide after the RBA's less-hawkish-than-priced hike, with the NY session driving the drop to the 0.5626 week low. Wednesday's rebound on Williams' remarks and the soft core PCE print stalled at the 61.8% fib near 0.5665, extending the lower highs sequence, and price has slipped back beneath EMA20 and the ema50 (~0.5650) toward the 0.5642 day low. RSI(14) near 44 and a rising lows line from Tuesday's trough, now being tested, frame a contracting structure.
Support: 0.5642, 0.5630, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5665, 0.5687
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 61.8% fib at 0.5665 breaks the lower highs sequence and opens a retest of the 0.5687 week high
Acceptance below the 0.5642 day low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.5630 asia low, then the 0.5626 week low
Reclaiming the ema50 at 0.5650 would return price to the middle of this week's range
Fedspeak from Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari (19:25–22:00 UTC), NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC and Thursday's ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:06 UTC
Downtrend this week, corrective bounce off Tuesday low · RSI 55 · price 0.56529
Higher lows since 0.5626 week low; PCE spike capped at 61.8% fib.
The week high at 0.5687 printed in Monday's NY session. Tuesday then slid to the 0.5626 week low after the RBA's less-hawkish guidance, with London and NY hours both extending the drop. Since then, higher lows have built along a rising trendline, and the core PCE miss spiked price to 0.5664, the fib 61.8 of the week's drop, before a rejection faded it back under the weekly open at 0.5655. Price now sits above the ema20 near 0.5648 and flat against EMA(50), with RSI(14) back near 55 from sub-30 readings on Tuesday.
Support: 0.56477, 0.56417, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56546, 0.56645, 0.56874
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5664 fib 61.8 negates the corrective read and puts the 0.5687 week high back in reach
H1 close below the 0.5642 pce low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5626 week low
Holding above the ema20 near 0.5648 keeps the post-Tuesday rebound structure intact
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed speakers from 19:25 UTC (Cook, Goolsbee, Kashkari) could shift USD after the PCE miss
ISM Manufacturing Thursday 14:00 UTC is the next major test for the bounce
Lower highs since Monday's NY peak; bounce off week low capped below 61.8% fib.
The week high of 0.5687 printed during Monday's NY session. Tuesday's slide, which followed the RBA's softer forward guidance and extended through NY hours, reached a week low of 0.5626, and each rally since has put in a lower high along the lower-high trendline. Wednesday's London rebound on Williams' 'no urgency' remarks met rejection at 0.5662 (wed high), short of the 61.8% retrace of the Monday–Tuesday drop. Price has since slipped back below the weekly open at 0.5655 and is sitting on EMA(20), with the Asian low at 0.5637 the nearest floor.
Support: 0.5637, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5655, 0.5662, 0.5687
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) within the hour could materially shift this read
H1 close above 0.5662 wed high and the lower-high trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5687 week high back in view
Failure to hold the 0.5637 asian low exposes the 0.5626 week low; a break there brings the ~0.5600 range floor into play
Reclaiming the 0.5655 weekly open on a closing basis would neutralise today's rejection
Lower highs from Monday's high; higher lows off Tuesday's low.
Monday's NY-session push to the 0.5687 week high was rejected. The RBA-led antipodean drag and a firm USD then broke 0.5650 in Tuesday's NY hours, down to the 0.5626 week low. Williams' dovish tilt lifted the pair through Asia and London on Wednesday to 0.5662 (Wednesday high), just shy of the 61.8% retracement of that drop, where supply capped the move. Price has slipped back to 0.5650, near the 38.2% level and under the weekly open at 0.5655. It sits above EMA(20) at 0.5645 but is pinned at EMA(50), with the lower highs and higher lows converging.
Support: 0.5645, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5655, 0.5662, 0.5687
What it said to watch
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read within the next two bars
An H1 close above 0.5662 (Wednesday high) and the 61.8% fib breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 0.5687 week high back in view
Failure to reclaim the 0.5655 weekly open keeps the rebound capped under the lower-highs line
Loss of the 0.5645 ema20 and the higher-lows trendline exposes the 0.5626 week low
Lower highs from Monday's 0.5687 peak; higher lows since Asia.
Monday's NY push to 0.5687 failed. The RBA's less-hawkish guidance on Tuesday then drove a London-to-NY slide to a week low at 0.5626. Since the Asia low at 0.5630, Williams' no-urgency remarks and the China PMI beat have lifted the pair back above ema20 (0.5647), with higher lows through Asia. The rebound stalled at a 0.5662 session high near the 61.8% retracement of the week's drop and is now pinned just under the weekly open at 0.5655, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 0.5647, 0.5630, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5655, 0.5662, 0.5677
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5662 session high and the lower-high trendline would open the tue high at 0.5677
Failure to hold ema20 and the rising Asia-low trendline from 0.5630 would put the 0.5626 week low back in play
US ADP (12:15 GMT) and core PCE (12:30 GMT) today could materially shift this read
Acceptance back above the weekly open at 0.5655 would neutralise Tuesday's RBA-driven break
Lower highs from Monday's 0.5687 peak; higher lows since Tuesday's 0.5626 low.
The week opened at 0.5655 and ranged 0.5650–0.5687 on Monday. The slide after Tuesday's RBA decision broke that floor, and the NY session extended losses to a 0.5626 week low. Wednesday's London rebound on Williams' 'no urgency' remarks reclaimed ema20 near 0.5647 and printed higher lows, but met rejection at the 0.5662 london high, just under the 61.8% level of the week high–low fib. Price is back at the weekly open around 0.5653, retesting the old 0.5650 floor with RSI(14) near 55 and ATR(14) about 9 pips.
Support: 0.56467, 0.56367, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56546, 0.56619, 0.56874
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.5662 london high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the path back toward the 0.5687 week high
Failure to hold ema20 at 0.5647 exposes the asian low at 0.5637 and the rebound lows trendline
A break of the 0.5626 week low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 range floor
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC is a secondary risk into the Asia session
Lower high at 0.5662 under week high; higher lows since 0.5626.
From the 0.5655 weekly open the pair ran to a 0.5687 week high in Monday's NY session, then the RBA decision triggered Tuesday's breakdown, and London-into-NY selling extended the slide to a 0.5626 week low. Rising lows through Asia and into London, helped by a softer DXY and the China PMI beat, carried price back above EMA(20), but the London open push stalled at the 0.5662 session high near the 61.8% of the Monday-Tuesday drop. Price is now back on EMA(50) around 0.5650, in line with the 38.2% level, and RSI(14) sits in the mid-50s.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5638, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5655, 0.5662, 0.5687
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5662 session high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.5687 week high
Acceptance back above the 0.5655 weekly open would signal the bounce is extending
Loss of the rising lows line near 0.5638 exposes the 0.5626 week low and the 0.5600 range floor
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
07:04 UTC
Downtrend from Monday's high, corrective bounce off the lows · RSI 56 · price 0.5651
Range break lower Tuesday, higher lows since, retesting the 0.5650 breakdown.
NZDUSD broke out of the 0.5650–0.5680 range after Tuesday's RBA decision. It extended into the NY session to a 0.5626 week low, about 61 pips off Monday's 0.5687 week high. Since then the pair has printed higher lows at 0.5630 and the 0.5637 Asian low, helped by a softer DXY and the China PMI beat, and has reclaimed EMA(20) near 0.5645 to sit on EMA(50) around 0.5650. The push into the London open met rejection at a 0.5661 session high, just under the 61.8% retrace of the week high–low fib, with RSI(14) back near 56.
Support: 0.5645, 0.5637, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5661, 0.5677, 0.5687
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5661 session high and 61.8% fib reopens the 0.5677 prior high (Tuesday's pre-RBA peak)
Loss of the 0.5637 Asian low breaks the higher-lows trendline and puts the 0.5626 week low back in focus
Break below the 0.5626 week low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.5600 range floor cited in the digest
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) today could materially shift this read
H1 closes back below EMA(20) at 0.5645 would mark the 0.5650 retest as failed
Lower highs from Monday's 0.5687; higher low at 0.5630 in Asia.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since Monday's NY-open spike to 0.5687. The dominant leg of the Monday–Tuesday drop began after the RBA decision in late Asia on Tuesday and extended through London and NY to the 0.5626 week low. Wednesday's Asia session formed a higher low at 0.5630 as DXY eased and China's PMI beat, putting price back above ema20 at 0.5644 and into a retest of 0.5650, where ema50 and the fib 38.2% converge, with RSI(14) back near 50 and the weekly open at 0.5655 just overhead.
Support: 0.5644, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5655, 0.5677
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5655 weekly open and the fib 50% at 0.5657 breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the tue high at 0.5677
A break of the higher lows line and ema20 near 0.5644 re-exposes the 0.5626 week low
A close below the 0.5626 week low opens the 0.5600 range floor
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Monday's 0.5687 peak; tight Asian range 0.5630–0.5650 above the week low.
The week opened on a gap lower at 0.5655, and Monday's spike to 0.5687 faded. The RBA's hike with a softer guidance tilt then broke the 0.5650 floor in Tuesday's Asia session, and the NY session extended the slide to a week low of 0.5626. Wednesday's Asian range has held 0.5630–0.5650, with the bounce stalling at the Asian high near 0.5650, where the 38.2% retracement of the Tuesday slide meets the lower-high line, while price chops just under EMA(20) at 0.5643. RSI(14) near 42 has recovered off the lows but has not reclaimed 50.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5643, 0.5650, 0.5655
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5626 week low resumes the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.5600 range floor
H1 close above the 0.5650 Asian high and the lower-high line breaks the sequence of lower highs; the 0.5655 week open is the next reference
Sustained trade above EMA(20) at 0.5643 would shift the read from downtrend to base-building
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC during the Asia session is a secondary risk
Lower highs since Monday's peak; Asia rebound testing a descending line.
Monday's NY-session push to the 0.5687 week high failed and was followed by a run of lower highs. The RBA decision on Tuesday knocked the pair through the weekly open at 0.5655, and the slide extended during NY hours to the 0.5626 week low as the US 10-year yield hit 2004-era levels. Wednesday's Asia session has rebuilt from the 0.5630 asia low back onto EMA(20) near 0.5644, with RSI(14) back to ~48 from near 30. That rebound is stalling at the 38.2% fib of the Monday–Tuesday drop around 0.5650, just under EMA(50) (~0.5651) and the weekly open.
Support: 0.56302, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56499, 0.56546, 0.56874
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 0.5650 and the weekly open at 0.5655 would break the lower highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5630 asia low exposes the 0.5626 week low and the 0.5600 range floor
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) today could materially shift this read
Quarter-end flows around the London fix may distort price near the weekly open
Lower highs from Monday's 0.5687 top; tight base above the 0.5626 week low.
The week opened at 0.5655, and Monday's NY push to 0.5687 faded. The RBA's hike with softer guidance knocked the pair in Tuesday's Asia session, then the NY session drove the range break through the 0.5650 broken floor to a 0.5626 week low. Wednesday's Asian session has built higher lows off the 0.5630 Asian low, lifting price just above EMA(20) at 0.5644 and into the 0.5647 bounce high, near the 38.2% retrace of the Monday-Tuesday drop, with RSI(14) back in the high-40s and ATR contracting.
Support: 0.56438, 0.56302, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.56466, 0.5650, 0.56769
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5650 broken floor and 0.5655 weekly open negates the range break read; Tuesday high at 0.5677 is the next reference above
Failure at the 0.5647 bounce high keeps the retest of 0.5650 as a rejection from below
Break of the Asian higher lows trendline and the 0.5630 Asian low reopens the 0.5626 week low
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC adds late-session risk
Lower high Monday, lower low Tuesday; tight Asian range under 0.5650.
Monday's NY-session push to 0.5687 faded. Tuesday's post-RBA selling through London and NY then broke the 0.5650 floor that had held since last Thursday, printing a week low at 0.5626 before an 18:00 UTC bounce stalled at 0.5647. Asia session has held a tight 0.5630–0.5645 range just under EMA(20) after the soft ANZ surveys, with RSI(14) back in the mid-40s and the broken floor sitting at the 38.2% retracement of the Monday–Tuesday drop.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56466, 0.5650, 0.56546
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5650 broken floor and the 0.5655 weekly open would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Bounce high at 0.5647 is capping the Asian range; a break keeps a retest of 0.5650 in play
Loss of the 0.5630 Asia low exposes the 0.5626 week low, with the 0.5600 range floor below
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) today could materially shift this read
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC is a secondary risk for the kiwi
01:04 UTC
Downtrend after range break, bounce stalling · RSI 39 · price 0.56399
0.5650–0.5687 range broken lower; lower highs since Monday.
The 0.5650–0.5687 range held from Thursday through Monday, when an NY-open spike to the 0.5687 week high was rejected. Tuesday's London open broke the range floor, and NY hours extended the drop to a 0.5626 week low, with the RBA's less-hawkish guidance and a yield-driven USD bid behind the move. The rebound to a 0.5647 bounce high stalled below both the broken range floor and the 38.2% retracement of the Mon-Tue drop. Price is now sitting on EMA(20) near 0.5642, pressing a line of lower highs, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5647, 0.5650, 0.5687
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.5650 range floor would put the price back inside the prior range and negate the range-break read
A move through the 0.5647 bounce high and the lower-highs line would indicate the Mon-Tue drop is retracing toward its 50% level near 0.5657
Failure to hold the 0.5626 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 psych level
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) today, plus month-end flows, could materially shift this read
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC is a secondary risk for NZD
00:04 UTC
Downtrend after Tuesday's range break · RSI 43 · price 0.56393
Lower highs capped under the broken 0.5650 floor.
The 0.5650–0.5687 range held from Thursday to Monday's 0.5687 week high, then gave way on Tuesday. The slide started in the Asia session after the RBA's hike came with softer guidance, and London and NY extended it to a 0.5626 week low with RSI(14) near 29. The rebound into Tuesday's NY close stalled around 0.5645, where the ema20 and the 38.2% retracement of Tuesday's drop sit just under the broken floor at 0.5650. The lower highs line from Tuesday's 0.5677 peak still caps the retest, with price below both EMAs and RSI recovering only to about 43.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.5650, 0.5687
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5650 broken floor and the lower highs line would weaken the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 0.5626 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 round number
Repeated rejection at the ema20 near 0.5644 keeps the retest from below intact
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wednesday could materially shift this read
Month/quarter-end flows after a strong USD month add two-way risk into Wednesday's NY session